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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Indeed, and depending upon whether Giga Tesla resumes exports to Europe in Q2, or simply decides to use this opportunity to reduce the backlog of orders in China itself, Tesla may actually be able to increase FCF for the quarter (reduced shipping timelag to delivery for a finished car).
This is precisely the opposite of the (highly speculative) thesis by the guy that can't even operate a conference telephone:
Hint for Pierre: read the fine manual; better telephones come with one.
P.S. If Tesla preferentially builds Models Y in Shanghai during the rampup, the net ASP will also increase over Q1. Remember, gross profits are leveraged too with each incremental dollar of ASP falling straight through to the gross margin
Paging @The Accountant
Cheers!
News from the Netherlands and Belgium
Savoring the small steps of progress in what could otherwise easily be perceived as a mountain of gloom, today for the first time solar and wind produced more than 100% of the electrical power consumption between 11 -16h30. This caused the price of power to become negative. The same happened in Belgium, to a lesser extent. We need more BEVs and batteries, obviously.
Unfortunately the cross border power lines don’t have sufficient capacity to receive the excess. Also, locally the net could not always absorb the power, as a result of which solar panels were turned off.
Expect this to happen more often in the future. At some point those in control will start to realize that batteries are necessary. At that moment the waiting lists will probably be years. (Sigh). HODL.
Savoring the small steps of progress in what could otherwise easily be perceived as a mountain of gloom, today for the first time solar and wind produced more than 100% of the electrical power consumption between 11 -16h30. This caused the price of power to become negative. The same happened in Belgium, to a lesser extent. We need more BEVs and batteries, obviously.
Unfortunately the cross border power lines don’t have sufficient capacity to receive the excess. Also, locally the net could not always absorb the power, as a result of which solar panels were turned off.
Expect this to happen more often in the future. At some point those in control will start to realize that batteries are necessary. At that moment the waiting lists will probably be years. (Sigh). HODL.
lafrisbee
Active Member
SIDEBAR...I WISH i had a five year old daughter that read TMC!
Bet TSLA
Active Member
Andrea James continues to be the best!
This is the money quote, but the whole thread is worth reading: "In 2016, when helping them with investor relations, I got to experience the culture for myself. Working at Tesla was like stepping into a vortex of competence." She tells the story of getting a Model 3 "show model" to a Gigafactory Nevada investor event.
This is the money quote, but the whole thread is worth reading: "In 2016, when helping them with investor relations, I got to experience the culture for myself. Working at Tesla was like stepping into a vortex of competence." She tells the story of getting a Model 3 "show model" to a Gigafactory Nevada investor event.
This is the link to get spot prices for next day delivery in Belgium: https://www.engie.be/api/engie/be/m...SC_DYNAMIC_R_N_WEB202204&segment=R&language=N
Engie (the biggest electricity provider (and operator of the nuclear power plants in Belgium)) sells a contract where they provide you electricity at these rates (with a small markup). You do need a smart power meter (in about 2 years the entire country will have these) though.
But then you’d be able to charge your car at negative rates. Tomorrow there’s an hour where the energy price is so deeply negative that it compensates for the distribution cost. We’re only april, so we will get more hours with negative prices during the summer. Maybe even negative prices during the workweek.
Imagine that there ‘d be situation where you’d be able to fill up your ICE during the weekends for free (And get some extra money even).
Recently at TED talk and Repeatedly Elon's comment about how hard is profitable volume ramp suggest, right before Model 3 ramp, lot of Machine that makes Machine were traditional contract out machinery, either Tesla had to modify lot of machinery or come out with Machine that couldn't be bought off the shelf during 2017-19 period. My point is, this does not bold well for lot of startup, including Rivian, Lucid. Yes volume production can be done by anybody, if one throw lot of money and talent but key balnce for public company is not loose lot of money in process of ramping production.
But that's the effect of the power companies being contractually obligated to buy all 'green' power at predetermined rates and having to get rid of the electricity at any cost lower than themselves turning it into heat in giant resistors.
To get the turn back on the Tesla topic, in the perfect new world with green energy only you'd get your electricity at no lower than 0 + distribution costs. If you power is delivered from your rooftop, happy zero all around.
I was there as it happened and how Tesla moved heaven, earth and a whole bunch of snow to get that Model 3 for us to see it.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Rob Maurer does an epic takedown of the S&P Credit Rating Agency (video cued to segment beginning at 1:27)
S&P Refuses Tesla Investment Grade Rating | Tesla Daily
Cheers!
P.S. Stick around for Rob's equally enjoyable takedown of Shortie Mc'ShortGates...
S&P Refuses Tesla Investment Grade Rating | Tesla Daily
Cheers!
P.S. Stick around for Rob's equally enjoyable takedown of Shortie Mc'ShortGates...
But that's the effect of the power companies being contractually obligated to buy all 'green' power at predetermined rates and having to get rid of the electricity at any cost lower than themselves turning it into heat in giant resistors.
To get the turn back on the Tesla topic, in the perfect new world with green energy only you'd get your electricity at no lower than 0 + distribution costs. If you power is delivered from your rooftop, happy zero all around.
Independent of the reason why there are negative prices, and very relevant to Tesla and EV’s in general, my point is that it is now possible to charge an EV for (quasi) free without any investment in solar infrastructure. That’s a strong financial incentive to buy an EV.
When asked why there's a lack of copycats even though Tesla invite the public to tour their secret sauce, I really wish bulls can have the answer for this question on TV. The answer is when you apply first principles to a product with the best engineers in the world, copying this while trying to hit similar or lower capex is impossible as it's out of the realm of physics. Copying Tesla will make you behind, and that's if you have their level of engineers which you don't. This is why Musk said the manufacturing capabilities of Tesla will never be matched even when there are self driving cars and evs from other companies that are the same. So what is Musk talking about when it comes to manufacturing as their most reliable competitive advantage?
1. Volume scalability
2. Lowest possible COGS to the core elements from first principle.
Tesla is able to produce 1.5M cars with only Shanghai, Fremont, and Nevada(powertrain factory). They are guiding to one day hit 5M with 5 total factories
Contrast this to volkswagen which moved over 6.2 million cars in 2019 using 136 factories!
1. Volume scalability
2. Lowest possible COGS to the core elements from first principle.
Tesla is able to produce 1.5M cars with only Shanghai, Fremont, and Nevada(powertrain factory). They are guiding to one day hit 5M with 5 total factories
Contrast this to volkswagen which moved over 6.2 million cars in 2019 using 136 factories!
The Accountant
Active Member
Indeed, and depending upon whether Giga Tesla resumes exports to Europe in Q2, or simply decides to use this opportunity to reduce the backlog of orders in China itself, Tesla may actually be able to increase FCF for the quarter (reduced shipping timelag to delivery for a finished car).
This is precisely the opposite of the (highly speculative) thesis by the guy that can't even operate a conference telephone:
Hint for Pierre: read the fine manual; better telephones come with one.
P.S. If Tesla preferentially builds Models Y in Shanghai during the rampup, the net ASP will also increase over Q1. Remember, gross profits are leveraged too with each incremental dollar of ASP falling straight through to the gross margin
Paging @The Accountant
Cheers!
I believe Pierre's intent was to get fellow analysts to take down their FCF forecasts for Q2 because Tesla will sell less cars than what the analysts presumably expected in Q2. He wants to lower expectations and that may be a good thing.
However Q2 Free Cash Flow (FCF) may be higher than Q1 even with deliveries flat due to:
- Your comment that the mix will skew to higher margin models of S, X and Y (less Model 3s in Q2 vs Q1).
- Past North American price increases coming through on Q2 shipments.
- Improved working capital in Q2 as inventory increase will not rise as much as what we saw in Q1.
Note to self: "remember how well Tesla performed in 2020 during the Covid lockdowns? They've got this !
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ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) Performance History - Yahoo Finance
Current and Historical Performance Performance for ARK Innovation ETF on Yahoo Finance.finance.yahoo.com
It you span out to the 5-year for ARKK, I believe it's called "kicking patootie and taking names" if you just held. Wonder what the 10-year is going to be?
I suspect Elon has just goaded Gates into holding short another quarter or so. The more he taunts him the more bullish it seems to me.
How richly WHG III deserves this and how deeply I wish to see it.
Trip Chowdry is a climate change denier. Truly a buffoon. No one should listen to him about anything. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.
Another model bites the dust. Now, Fs earnings next week will be even more interesting.
Note: This model was being produced in Germany.
"So at the end of the day, killing off the Fiesta just makes sense given its collapsing sales, though it’ll certainly be interesting to see how long it takes before the 5-door sibling ends up having the same fate as well."
Note: This model was being produced in Germany.
"So at the end of the day, killing off the Fiesta just makes sense given its collapsing sales, though it’ll certainly be interesting to see how long it takes before the 5-door sibling ends up having the same fate as well."
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
That URL seems to be corrupted. Lets see if I can fix it.
The Chip Shortage Makes Another Victim, as Ford Kills Off the Three-Door Fiesta
The American carmaker will no longer produce the three-door version of the Fiesta starting this summer, with the five-door model to survive for now
www.autoevolution.com
Ford makes more money on financing and service (parts, etc) than on making and selling cars. This created a weird incentive for them where it made more sense for them to chase increasingly smaller unprofitable niches to generate financing and service activity down the road.
Right now Ford needs to generate profits to keep their books balanced so it’s easy to drop those lines. It won’t even affect their profitability much for the next couple of years, but it will reduce their profits in the coming years.
That URL seems to be corrupted. Lets see if I can fix it.
The Chip Shortage Makes Another Victim, as Ford Kills Off the Three-Door Fiesta
The American carmaker will no longer produce the three-door version of the Fiesta starting this summer, with the five-door model to survive for now
The URL was powered by Ford's software team.
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