Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[kanweg]

That's true, but it's not even the main trouble with margin loans. The issuers have the right to suddenly change the terms. It kills me when people say "TSLA would have to drop 50% for me to get a margin call." That is false in all cases! The brokerage making the loan can instantly make whatever stock you are borrowing against almost worthless to use as collateral based upon nothing more than the perception your collateral has dropped in value or increased in risk. The actual price doesn't even need to change for them to do that and it's completely beyond your control and can happen without warning. Many people are unaware of this.

Hence my question to people asking if they should use margin loans: Do you aspire to becoming a puppet?

That happened to me in spring 2020. Tesla shares were given a different rating, and instead of 50% I suddenly could borrow at most 30%. I‘m currently at 10% margin. I’m not happy with the low SP, but my margin doesn’t spoil my sleep. I did catch a few knives, so won’t make the most of the low SP as I don‘t want to eat in my margin buffer.

 

[mongo]

I thought the VOLUME (second chart) told the story of how much had been sold/held?
and that would have the MaxPain at 700-730.

Volume is daily contract trades. (Like shares traded)
Open interest is contracts open. (Like the float)
One person can create a contract (sell to open, OI of 1) and it can get bounced around an infinite number of times (buy to open, sell to close) until it is either executed/assigned or bought to close.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Added 15 more today....

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Today was very uplifting for me. We dipped down to $700 and triggered an absolute feeding frenzy that shot SP up 11% in 90 minutes! The bear/bull battle is full throttle right now. Volume on TSLA was bonkers, and elevated for all of tech.

AAPL being down is a great sign we're ready to turn around. The GOOG commentary from Sundar on CNBC today was quite uplifting and bullish. Their PE is sitting at 20.

And I don't want to drift OT, but for the macros to explode up we need Putin to cut a deal and declare victory. With Finland/Sweden threatening to join NATO immediately, I think we can get him to the table now to avoid that happening. Any further interest in this comment, use the Russia/Ukraine thread.

 

[Zero CO2]

Yeah, it's almost like the "bad" stocks on my list are doing great while the "good" stocks on my list are doing poorly?

Is this Bizarro trading day?

one might ask why you have "bad" stocks ... i would have to assume this is just a watch list not owned shares

 

[Discoducky]

Re: Rivian RT

It had better be a good product considering the first year's production will probably cost roughly over a quarter million or more to produce each one. Making a good product is easy compared to making a good product that can be sold profitably, in volume. I would buy one while I wait for Cybertruck if they were available at MSRP any more than the Cybertruck is currently available. But it's not and I would just be helping Rivian lose more money.

Re: Lightning

You probably have a different definition of "solid" than I do. But, if 12 years from now, half of the early Lightnings are still on the road, I'll admit I was wrong. "Solid" in terms of an EV conversion that came out of uncle Jack's garage, and "solid" in terms of a production EV, are two different things in my book. Ford is so inefficient at manufacturing they will have to cut the same corners on the Lightning that they cut with their current F-150 trucks. If by "solid" you mean overweight and inefficient, then maybe we are on the same page.

With the F-150 Lightning, like the Rivian, profitability is key, something that is not a given. One widespread warranty issue with the drivetrain can completely reverse any small profitability Ford thinks they might have. The same can be said about the Cybertruck but I have much more confidence it can be sold in huge numbers profitably than I do for the Lightning and that warranty expenses will be typical of other Tesla. Even if the Lightning makes a small profit based on a mix of trims weighted heavily towards six digits, can it sell at high volumes at a profit and avoid excessive warranty expenses down the road? Very much an unknown.

The biggest known problem of the Lightning will be that it won't really be a pleasant experience to take it on a long trip on the Interstate. The expected range will not be there, the charge network is in shambles (poorly located and maintained) and the time to charge will be excessive due to it's inefficiency at 70 mph. But, yeah, it will excel at use in a limited geographical area. I really don't see the Lighting being a long-term success unless they completely re-engineer it into a modern truck that no longer pushes wind like it belongs in the last century.

Re: Lightning

Watch Kyle's review first and then revisit the below...

Comparing them apples to apples, CT should win in every category, but it is good to have more EVs on the road. I'm hoping that Ford can at least join the party due to folks getting off of ICE.

As far as 'solid'.
Will there be half of them on the road in 12 years? Doubtful for many reasons as I doubt Ford will be around in >5 years or when Tesla scales to >1M/yr CT run rate.
Do I think it is getting its advertised range? Yes, for no load in near ideal conditions. 406 Wh/mile with a 130kWh battery and 320 EPA range. Not a horrible efficiency, lets see where CT lands. Hoping for <350 Wh/mile EPA
Does it charge fast enough? No, taper is aggressive. CT wins here hands down already. Looking for 200 miles of range in <15 minutes and a taper at 70%.
Do I think it will be 'ok' with a full bed load and/or towing max capacity? Unknown. CT will win here is near a certainty as max towing and bed load should be significantly higher
Do I think they will be able to scale? Probably not due to too much reliance on 3rd parties. Tesla should be at a higher scale by the middle of next year (>10k/month).
Do I think they will make a profit? Highly doubtful, due to 3rd party reliance on what should be high margin parts. CT should be crazy profit (>40% at scale) with giga castings, 4680 structural packs, exoskeleton, Tesla inverter/gearbox/motor efficiencies.

 

[Motor Mouth]

A friend who's been interested in TSLA (listening to my commentary for the past 2 years) finally pulled the trigger today. He'd been looking so long it surprised me that he bought now. BULLISH /s

 

[mrmage]

sold TSLA Calls at loss, other *sugar* PUTS at loss (many ARKK names) and got myself 100 spanking shares of TSLA around $700.
Back at 100% TSLA shares - all running naked, waiting to sell some Covered Calls ...
(no margin worries from PUT assignments ..)

I'm at 75% shares / ditm calls, and 25% spreads. I've rolled all options to mid 2023 to Jan 2024 and capitulated on most my margin by closing lots of spreads. Enough red so there shouldn't be much in taxes this year. When TSLA reaches the last ATH, my portfolio will be around 2/3 of where it was.

Shoot for the stars, end up on mars. No complaints.

 

[Ogre]

I think the SP is suffering today because everyone is selling their chairs to buy LEAPs.

At least I contributed a small amount of selling today to switch to LEAPs.

 

[canoemore]

I don't think there's enough despair around here for this to be the bottom.

 

[Accident]

We are finally seeing some signs of good support across the market and with Tesla. Apple finally breaking down isn't a bad thing either. It really needed to happen for a bottom to set in. Small caps are gaining (some of them quite big). Tesla having a very large volume day. We're close to the end here. Now whether this is a rally back into the middle of a downward channel or not is a question that we probably won't know for another month, but a rally is coming soon.

AAPL PE ratio still looks high to me compared to a 10Y average. I wouldn't be surprised if it drops another 20% or 30%. It dropped to 18 in March 2020, and it has been below 20 for most part of the last decade.

 

[elasalle]

macro - guess continuation is good at this time else more chaos

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell confirmed by Senate for a second term

The Senate on Thursday voted to give Powell a second four-year run at the central bank's helm.

www.cnbc.com

 

[henchman24]

AAPL PE ratio still looks high to me compared to a 10Y average. I wouldn't be surprised if it drops another 20% or 30%. It dropped to 18 in March 2020, and it has been below 20 for most part of the last decade.

View attachment 803381

This really isn't an Apple thread, but it comes down to margins and growth. Apple was basically a ~38% margin company for most of the teens and into covid... while having only modest growth. The last 4 quarters are 42+% margin while growing near the 2012 rate. If those get questioned, they'll move down in PE. If everybody keeps buying airpods at an absurd rate... they should be 30-35+.

Apple is basically the closest company to a money tree... relating this to this thread... Tesla is on their way to doing the same.

 

[WattsHappening]

Yes, you raise a good point, and I will roll them out much further if the SP does not recover by the end of summer.
I am hoping that the split will happen in August-Sept time-frame and that will cause enough rally to recover above 1100.
If that happens I plan to sell a portion of the LEAPs and use the money to exercise the rest, converting back to shares, hopefully to more shares than I had before this leveraging move. On the other hand if we are still in the ditch in September, then I roll out as far as I can and do the back conversion later.

We know Elon doesn't care about the stock price. But he does care about his employees and he will do what is best for them.

I've read somewhere that the TESLA employee stock purchase plan (ESPP) runs 9/1 through 2/28 and 3/1 through 8/31. If that is true, I would bet dollars to donuts that the stock split will be effective before end of August in order to maximize employees' ESPP purchases.

 

[MABMAB]

Elon and caring for stock price? News today of financing not subject to TSLA shares? Uh, yes he cares. My bet is it is tougher to offer up shares with so many required and/or potential for further down turn. My view of things is not good on change in financing plans.

 

[Nocturnal]

Re: Lightning

Watch Kyle's review first and then revisit the below...

Comparing them apples to apples, CT should win in every category, but it is good to have more EVs on the road. I'm hoping that Ford can at least join the party due to folks getting off of ICE.

I'm especially skeptical of the 40k trim. Feels like a marketing move (to sell stock) than anything. People complained about the 35k SR Tesla being used to upsell to the SR+ but this is a whole other level.

The Lightning will be for people who just can't take the looks of the CT because the price for specs just simply won't be there. I'll also include people who live too far from a Tesla SC in that group.

People seem to love the lightning so far. I'm curious how the Osborning will go.

 

[Singuy]

Just to add a little bit of professionalism to my hopium post about trash stock first to crash and first to lead us out.

http://news.prudential.com/images/20026/Small%20Caps%20Lead%20the%20Way.pdf

Small Caps Shine

The Russell 2000 outperformed large caps as semiconductor stocks neared record highs. Could bond yields be close to bottoming?

www.investopedia.com

" Small-cap stocks are considered by many to be both a gauge of investors' risk appetite as well as a leading indicator of the broader stock market. Therefore, when we see the Russell 2000 surge, especially when large caps lag, it's often seen as a sign that investors are willing to take more risk. And if this is indeed the case, the large caps could soon follow higher."

 

[Ogre]

Elon and caring for stock price? News today of financing not subject to TSLA shares? Uh, yes he cares. My bet is it is tougher to offer up shares with so many required and/or potential for further down turn. My view of things is not good on change in financing plans.

It’s a lot easier to use a loan to secure financing then it is to get a bunch of investors to pony up for a stake.

Musk did what was expedient to secure the sale. Now he’s circling back to get others behind the deal.

Musk wants to change Twitter. He can do that and let the other investors enjoy the returns without having a bunch of debt.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Pretty poor end to the day there for TSLA. First 3-4 hours of the trading day, I thought for sure investors were setting absolute floor to the stock. But then the spoofing started. So easy to see when spoofing steps in with this stock. Now back to grossly underperforming it's beta yet again. So yeah, I'm thinking there's intent on taking TSLA down another leg.

It gets pummeled like a risky growth stock on the down days......and the none of the reward of being a "risky growth" stock on the up days.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I am on the record saying the Bird is a bad idea but if Elon can do it without any further stock sales and without actually taking on margin then I have no further financial objections to the deal as a TSLA investor.

I still don't think Elon can change human behavior or stop the decline of human civilization that social media is causing but that's a separate issue that is unrelated to Tesla and he's the world's richest man not me so I'm in no position to tell him anything. Good luck with the Bird, Elon!