Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mengy]

Thoughts about the TelsaBot. The most important product for Tesla?

I've been thinking about the business of the TeslaBot and what Tesla should be focused on. To me, there is no better potential platform business than the TeslaBot. The focus would be on developing the capabilities of the bot as an operating system, the generalized visual AI, the sensitivity of the bot's touch and feel, the dexterity of the bot. The specific applications can be left to third party developers who would adapt the bot to cook, to serve, to aid doctors, etc. etc. This is the iPhone business model and there's no reason Tesla should not adapt the same strategy.

Precisely, Optimus has MASSIVE potential. If Tesla can capitalize on it then the Optimus business should easily dwarf their automotive business in time.

I think it will be a slow ramp up the exponential curve though. My feeling is Optimus will start very basic and limited in scope, but as they iterate on the design and expand it's software capabilities the market for a generalized humanoid robot is not only incredibly huge but also a relatively virgin market, a blue ocean so to speak. If successful Tesla would have this blue ocean all to itself for a very long time, and that is stupendously bullish.

IF they can pull this off. It's not going to be easy.

 

[MABMAB]

But this is exactly Starfox's point. Despite more funds investing and increasing revenue, profits, and margins, the stock has still mostly traded flat or worse during this time. We are down 23% for the year despite all of these positive headwinds. For a huge growth stock with massively increasing financials and almost nil debt, this does seem a bit ... odd.

I think this is what Starfox is trying to state.

I've learned from books that say one needs take a top down approach to the market. Doing so, one can look at the big picture of things first. When I do this, I am not befuddled with the specifics of one company. Ignoring the specific symbols, don't these two look similar?

 

[thesmokingman]

Green... really?

Markets still red. BBBY squeeze... taking a bath atm. Oh this is gonna be a day.

 

[Pezpunk]

Thoughts about the TelsaBot. The most important product for Tesla?

I've been thinking about the business of the TeslaBot and what Tesla should be focused on. To me, there is no better potential platform business than the TeslaBot. The focus would be on developing the capabilities of the bot as an operating system, the generalized visual AI, the sensitivity of the bot's touch and feel, the dexterity of the bot. The specific applications can be left to third party developers who would adapt the bot to cook, to serve, to aid doctors, etc. etc. This is the iPhone business model and there's no reason Tesla should not adapt the same strategy.

These kinds of posts are just silly when we have heard ABSOLUTELY NOTHING regarding actual specs or capabilities and seen zero evidence anything approaching a working prototype exists. Just pure fantasy. Feel free to project your own frothy fantasies but that’s all you are doing. There’s no meaningful discussion to have on this topic.

We need to have a higher standard for what constitutes credible investment criteria.

 

[cusetownusa]

The North American final assembly requirement kicked in at signing. This instantly cut out imports.

The 200k phase out doesn't go away until 2023. So Tesla is (still) ineligible until then.

So the currently eligible cars went from non-GM non-Tesla (both capped out) to (non-GM non-Tesla) domestic cars.

Minerals and component requirements kick in when guidance from Secretary of Treasury is released (before 2023). This is the big unknown for future Tesla, particularly dependent on how they define battery.

Credit transfer starts 2024.

Other modifications (income, minimum pack size increase to 7kWh, MSRP, fuel cell) all start 2023.

Might be a stupid question, but do you know how the income requirement is determined? For example, Is it based on Adjusted Gross Income or something else.

 

[Mengy]

I've learned from books that say one needs take a top down approach to the market. Doing so, one can look at the big picture of things first. When I do this, I am not befuddled with the specifics of one company. Ignoring the specific symbols, don't these two look similar?View attachment 842273View attachment 842274

Yes, but that is Starfox's point. TSLA should be outperforming SPY given it's growth rate and impressive financials, but it isn't. Other growth stocks are while TSLA isn't. That is his point, I think.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

It's because they don't want to. Not that they can't.

There are plenty of open 900c contracts sitting out there for tomorrow that would normally be targeted on a day like this.

I guess we could say today is "normal volume" since it's probably only low because there's far less naked shorting so close to the split.

 

[thesmokingman]

Lmao, CNBC just did a segment trying to get their guests to claim/lean/agree that Musk violated laws with his $MANU joke tweet, this is kabuki theater. Note their guest didn't concur with CNBC's motive, thankfully.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Lmao, CNBC just did a segment trying to get their guests to claim/lean/agree that Musk violated laws with his $MANU joke tweet, this is kabuki theater. Note their guest didn't concur with CNBC's motive, thankfully.

David Faber this morning tried to tell me that 1% of a trillion dollars is one billion dollars. So you can take their analysis with a grain of salt.

 

[LYTRIDR]

Might be a stupid question, but do you know how the income requirement is determined? For example, Is it based on Adjusted Gross Income or something else.

‘‘(i) the lesser of—
21 ‘‘(I) the modified adjusted gross
22 income of the taxpayer for such taxable
23 year, or
‘‘(II) the modified adjusted gross 2 income of the taxpayer for the preceding taxable year, exceeds the threshold amount.

 

[dhanson865]

Three Tesla presentations are scheduled for next Tuesday, addressing Dojo D1 chip architecture, Dojo and ML training, and enabling AI through system integration.

Advance Program

A Symposium on High Performance Chips

hotchips.org

Tuesday Aug 23

* DOJO: The Microarchitecture of Tesla’s Exa-Scale Computer Emil Talpes, Tesla
* DOJO - Super-Compute System Scaling for ML Training Bill Chang, Tesla
* Beyond Compute - Enabling AI through System Integration Ganesh Venkataramanan, Tesla Motors

 

[elasalle]

Home sales fell nearly 6% in July as housing market slides into a recession

Sales of previously owned homes fell nearly 6% in July compared with June, according to a monthly report from the National Association of Realtors.

www.cnbc.com

 

[unk45]

I don't know what that car is, but it certainly is not i3.

Most likely it was this, from BMW site:

BMW i4 (G26)：価格、モデル、航続可能距離、充電およびデザイン | BMW.CO.JP

BMW i4 （G26）のハイライト：BMW初の完全電動グラン クーペの価格、モデル、航続可能距離、充電、性能、デザイン。今すぐデザインして予約する。

www.bmw.co.jp

It is sold with a few modest labeling differences in China and other markets.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Today feels like it was supposed to be an "energy reversal" day, where EV/solar/etc profits are taken and money is plowed into fossil fuels.

Right as TSLA tanked to $90x this morning, I got a text alert from Fidelity. Forgot I put a $25 SP alert on for Peabody the out-of-bankruptcy coal company. I'm trying to keep an eye on it for shorting at it's peak.

Anywho....all that seemed to unwind at 10:45 or so after folks digested the EIA weekly crude report.

Some folks were trying to run up XOM/CVX/WTI/etc today, and the market said no.

Now we're floating in no man's land. Interesting to see how this breaks today. WTI bottomed and is now trying to make another run. I doubt it gains traction.

Today feels like a continuation of this fossil play. Even though the impetus for the play(weekly EIA report) didn't really say what they wanted it to say.

We see this all the time with hedge funds dumping tons of FUD on Tesla around earnings then shorting like crazy, even if the earnings report was a blockbuster. Just continue with the playbook regardless.

Oil is up 3-4% off weekly lows, XOM is up 2-3%.....I think this all fades by this afternoon or tomorrow.

These are just the death throes of the inflation/scarcity/Fed trade, and it has no leg to stand on in reality.

 

[bkp_duke]

There are plenty of open 900c contracts sitting out there for tomorrow that would normally be targeted on a day like this.

I guess we could say today is "normal volume" since it's probably only low because there's far less naked shorting so close to the split.

You miss my point - THEY have the ammo, should they chose to step in and drive the price down. They simply have not.

 

[thesmokingman]

Most likely it was this, from BMW site:

BMW i4 (G26)：価格、モデル、航続可能距離、充電およびデザイン | BMW.CO.JP

BMW i4 （G26）のハイライト：BMW初の完全電動グラン クーペの価格、モデル、航続可能距離、充電、性能、デザイン。今すぐデザインして予約する。

www.bmw.co.jp

I would have replied with denial ain't just a river in Egypt... but anyways. Here's the actual car. I didn't think his retort to my post was worth any clarification, you know since the real story is this fire coincided with BMW's fire recall.

First Ever BMW i3 Sedan, The Electric 3 Series, Shown In China

It seems to be based on the long wheelbase 3 Series and it appears to feature a facelift too and we are also informed about some of its specs.

insideevs.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

Lmao, CNBC just did a segment trying to get their guests to claim/lean/agree that Musk violated laws with his $MANU joke tweet, this is kabuki theater. Note their guest didn't concur with CNBC's motive, thankfully.

Pour vous: poor view.

Walter Isaacson reacts to Elon Musk's Manchester United tweet | CNBC Teletubbies

Walter Seff Isaacson (born May 20, 1952) is an American author, journalist, and professor. He has been the President and CEO of the Aspen Institute, a nonpartisan policy studies organization based in Washington, D.C., the chair and CEO of CNN, and the editor of Time.​

 

[Gigapress]

These kinds of posts are just silly when we have heard ABSOLUTELY NOTHING regarding actual specs or capabilities and seen zero evidence anything approaching a working prototype exists. Just pure fantasy. Feel free to project your own frothy fantasies but that’s all you are doing. There’s no meaningful discussion to have on this topic.

We need to have a higher standard for what constitutes credible investment criteria.

We have zero direct evidence of a working prototype, but Tesla is hosting AI Day 2 on September 30th which is only six weeks away, the promotional image for the event depicts robotic hands and Elon unambiguously confirmed that we’ll get a “sneak preview” of Optimus. AI Day was postponed to Sep 30th in the first place to increase the likelihood of being able to show off a functional prototype.

At a minimum this presumably means that many of the subsystems are working fairly well, if not yet the whole robot, because he would probably not say that if in reality “nothing approaching a working prototype exists”.

Investing successfully requires predicting how things will go before getting direct evidence, and making those predictions depends in part on estimating the credibility of statements like this coming from company leadership.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1556348857625092096

https://twitter.com/x/status/1526813672382861313

https://twitter.com/x/status/1532525711763841043

 

[UncaNed]

We have zero direct evidence of a working prototype, but Tesla is hosting AI Day 2 on September 30th which is only six weeks away, the promotional image for the event depicts robotic hands and Elon unambiguously confirmed that we’ll get a “sneak preview” of Optimus. AI Day was postponed to Sep 30th in the first place to increase the likelihood of being able to show off a functional prototype.

At a minimum this presumably means that many of the subsystems are working fairly well if not the whole robot.

Investing successfully requires predicting how things will go before getting direct evidence, and making those predictions depends in part on estimating the credibility of statements like this coming from company leadership.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1556348857625092096

https://twitter.com/x/status/1526813672382861313

https://twitter.com/x/status/1532525711763841043

Elon went from "yes" to "may have", not "so we can have" nor "will have".

 

[larmor]

We have zero direct evidence of a working prototype, but Tesla is hosting AI Day 2 on September 30th which is only six weeks away, the promotional image for the event depicts robotic hands and Elon unambiguously confirmed that we’ll get a “sneak preview” of Optimus. AI Day was postponed to Sep 30th in the first place to increase the likelihood of being able to show off a functional prototype.

At a minimum this presumably means that many of the subsystems are working fairly well, if not yet the whole robot, because he would probably not say that if in reality “nothing approaching a working prototype exists”.

Investing successfully requires predicting how things will go before getting direct evidence, and making those predictions depends in part on estimating the credibility of statements like this coming from company leadership.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1556348857625092096

https://twitter.com/x/status/1526813672382861313

https://twitter.com/x/status/1532525711763841043

If the only use case is stacking boxes of different sizes, i'm sure Amazon is gng to be watching closely.