Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ThisStockGood]

MODERATOR-ALTERED POST

I’ve been alerted that posters neither see a précis as to why a post is deleted, nor even by which Mod. Assuming this is so - we baklava-munchers high atop Mt. Olympus mightn’t be aware of all occurring to hoi polloi - then this morning what is turning to smoke on the Altar of OnTopicness can be discerned by by their color, as well as the identical alteration of the post.

With that, today‘s message is: NO more numerology. Ox entrails are less mind-stultifying, as well as less inaccurate.

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

I little more info on Ford's dealership ultimatum:

• Charging: Model e dealers must have adequate level 2 and DC fast charging, with at least one DC fast charger available to the public

Ford doesn't make a DC fast charger that I know of so it sounds like they are asking Ford Dealerships to pay Electrify America (Volkswagen) to put chargers on their property.

 

[Ogre]

It still feels like too much legacy thinking for my taste and Ford's eminent demise is still the most likely outcome with currently public plans. Fed rates will crush Ford finance in short order which is their only profit center.

The legacy ship takes too long to turn. Even I had a hard time going to Google after Tesla as they moved too slow. I had to leave Google to try a startup in order to move faster, but soon realized they didn't have the stomach to move fast enough and went back to a different part of Google that moved faster. It is not only the right thing to do, it is the only way to compete with Elon vision. I imagine Doug Field explained this as he knows it well.

I tend to agree.

I think he's making a lot of the right moves, but many of them are too little, too late. It just feels like he is the only leader of a legacy auto company making remotely smart moves. (After Diess got canned anyhow)

Also, it's not just going to be Fed rates which will crush Ford finance. I strongly suspect the price of used ICE vehicles is going to start to cave in. When that happens, companies with big inventories of ICE vehicles locked up in lease portfolios are going to get smashed. It's going to be a huge, slow motion train wreck as year after year they have to write down inventory losses on lease returns.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

DOW up .4, NASDAQ ~ .8. Meanwhile TSLA up nearly 5. Impressive shrugging off yesterday's bloodbath so quickly.

The volume is actually the most surprising thing to me. Volume on TSLA is way higher in the first 2 hours of trading than it has been in a while and much higher than it was yesterday, on a massive macro down day. Not sure what is going on at the moment

 

[Stretch2727]

I little more info on Ford's dealership ultimatum:

Ford is giving its dealers until October 31st of this year – less than two months – to make a decision that will have huge implications for the future of the franchise. The company is offering its dealers three options:

• Become a Model E Certified Elite dealership
• Become a Model E Certified dealership
• Discontinue selling Model E vehicles effective January 1st, 2024

Ford explains that its Model E dealership strategy will be built upon five pillars:

• Training: Dealers will need to undergo extensive EV training on an ongoing basis
• Charging: Model e dealers must have adequate level 2 and DC fast charging, with at least one DC fast charger available to the public
• Set Pricing: Transparent, non-negotiable pricing available online
• Excellent physical experience: Model e dealers must deliver an excellent ownership experience, including complimentary pickup and drop off for vehicle service visits
• Develop digital experience: Invest in building a digital ownership experience for the future

The new rules for Model e dealerships require dealers to post set prices for the electric vehicles online at Ford's website. Customers can view the set pricing, complete the purchase online, and even schedule home delivery. But ultimately, it's the dealer's decision what the set pricing will be for the vehicles, and there will likely be price variation from dealer to dealer.

65% Of Ford Dealers Agree To Ford's Tough EV Selling Terms

At its 2022 annual dealership meetings, Ford revealed to its dealer network the new Model e rules they are instilling for dealers that want to sell Ford's EVs.

insideevs.com

I tend to think of this as a way to force those who don't pay to exit the game. It's a fundamental flaw, the legacy dealer network is a huge hindrance if they are trying to copy Tesla. How better to trim that fat than to require a ridiculous sum that most dealers won't be able to pay?

Probably one of the biggest expenses for the dealers is the DC chargers. I am not sure forcing the dealers to install fast charging is worth the investment. Better to put them on long distance routes. I know Tesla has a some superchargers at service centers but most do not. Tesla is focused on investing in charging the right place, Ford is just trying to get "free" investment from the dealer but it will not be optimized to the best location.

 

[Ogre]

DOW up .4, NASDAQ ~ .8. Meanwhile TSLA up nearly 5. Impressive shrugging off yesterday's bloodbath so quickly.

I'm looking for them to climb a wall like they did leading up to November last year. We've got just about 7 weeks to crush that number so we gotta get a move on. Recapturing the ATH before November would be impressive.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Mod-deleted garbage post

Different strokes for different folks

 

[TheTalkingMule]

We just need to get Brandenburg to put a few hundred billion into TSLA and own 12% of the company just like Lower Saxony does with VW. Then those approvals would fly out the door.

Exactly. Germany does what's in its own interest.

Sometimes that's putting their thumb on the scale for VW. Sometimes it's delaying tank deliveries to Ukraine and letting the US military industrial complex happily fill the gap.

Also sometimes it's taking the initiative to scale wind and solar technology globally inside of a decade.

I think Tesla fans will find Berlin is right up there with Shanghai 3 years from now as Germany ramps their effort to be 100% renewables inside of 8 years.

 

[wipster]

So...

Let's just pretend yesterday didn't happen.

 

[wipster]

Mod-deleted more garbology

i've always been a MOPAR man, still can't give it up regardless of who owns them. I know I missed a few, but confident we can power through them!

GO Tesla!!!

 

[jkirkwood001]

Henrik Fisker's pointless ass was hired to create the entire exterior of the Model S. When it became clear he just wanted to steal Tesla's recipe, he was fired and the engineers just built whatever exterior look cut the air best.

That's a mistake followed by bold action. Worked out pretty good I think.

The standard corporate response would've been to double down and insist the hiring was pure genius.

Agree on most of this, but are you kidding about the final design of the Model S?? You do a disservice to Franz. Read about it in Ashley Vance's book and this feature article from 2009.

 

[JoRoMo]

MODERATOR-ALTERED POST

I’ve been alerted that posters neither see a précis as to why a post is deleted, nor even by which Mod. Assuming this is so - we baklava-munchers high atop Mt. Olympus mightn’t be aware of all occurring to hoi polloi - then this morning what is turning to smoke on the Altar of OnTopicness can be discerned by by their color, as well as the identical alteration of the post.

With that, today‘s message is: NO more numerology. Ox entrails are less mind-stultifying, as well as less inaccurate.

 

[Artful Dodger]

That had occurred to me. Obviously Musk and as a result Tesla are extremely well liked and would get all the support they could want. Risk of further Russian aggression might be an issue of course. Money will surely flow from the EU and US to help rebuild Ukraine as well.

There's a lot of lithium in the Dnieper river basin in Ukraine. I hear it's a licence to print money...

Before Invasion, Ukraine's Lithium Wealth Was Drawing Global Attention | NYT (Mar 02, 2022)

Apparently, China has heard the same thing. Several large Chinese companies have lithium extraction operations in Ukraine:

China's Chengxin submits bid for Ukraine lithium deposits | mining.com (Nov 29, 2021)

China’s Chengxin submits bid for Ukraine lithium deposits

The bid underscores Shenzhen-based Chengxin's ambitious overseas expansion plans.

www.mining.com

Lithium: The Link Between the Ukraine War and the Clean Energy Transition | kleinmanenergy.upenn.edu (Jun 03, 2022)

Lithium: The Link Between the Ukraine War and the Clean Energy Transition

Energy policy research from the University of Pennsylvania

kleinmanenergy.upenn.edu

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The volume is actually the most surprising thing to me. Volume on TSLA is way higher in the first 2 hours of trading than it has been in a while and much higher than it was yesterday, on a massive macro down day. Not sure what is going on at the moment

Of course, as soon as I posted this volume dried up considerably

 

[MartinAustin]

Biden is apparently going to speak shortly re: U.S. EV manufacturing. Could be another "you led, Mary!" moment

 

[MP3Mike]

Ford doesn't make a DC fast charger that I know of so it sounds like they are asking Ford Dealerships to pay Electrify America (Volkswagen) to put chargers on their property.

Electrify America doesn't make DC fast chargers either. They buy them from companies like Delta, BTC, ABB, Signet, Kempower, etc. There are lots of CCS charger suppliers that a dealer can choose from.

 

[woodisgood]

The volume is actually the most surprising thing to me. Volume on TSLA is way higher in the first 2 hours of trading than it has been in a while and much higher than it was yesterday, on a massive macro down day. Not sure what is going on at the moment

There was a lot of strength yesterday in both TSLA as well as much of solar. A lot of these “events” we have that lead to precipitous drops in the market are manufactured to allow rotation into some stocks that may be slightly overvalued in the short term (not talking TSLA here) but that big players still want to own for the long-term as the decade is very very bright.

The banks want your shares. They’re late to the party, and they’ll do anything to get them.

 

[Singuy]

Argh... for the 500th time, Elon NEVER said that, the MEDIA pretends he said that, and YOU repeat it blindly. What Elon tweeted was that COVID was trending to zero. The trend changed. Unlike the media, Elon is willing to change his opinion when faced with new evidence. That doesn't take brilliance, it takes intellectual honesty.

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@PPathole Based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in US too by end of April" / Twitter (March 19, 2020)​

... so, maybe don't blindly accept the MEDIA then, either? You should be aware of their pervasive bias against Elon, their willingness to twist his words or outright lie about what he says, and understand who FUNDS their bias.

The biggest problem with what Musk said is it made him sound stupid. Any reasonable person know that in April of 2020, there were not enough tests and tests were questionable if they worked or not. There were no trend and no one should be making predictions using incomplete data.

However people don't think he is stupid. So people naturally concluded he is using stupid data purposely trying to get his factory open.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Ford doesn't make a DC fast charger that I know of so it sounds like they are asking Ford Dealerships to pay Electrify America (Volkswagen) to put chargers on their property.

But depends on the definition of adequate. Most dealers here have at most a 24kW DC.

However, there is already a Ford dealer hosting a pair of 62.5kW Chargepoints.

 

[henchman24]

Ford doesn't make a DC fast charger that I know of so it sounds like they are asking Ford Dealerships to pay Electrify America (Volkswagen) to put chargers on their property.

I'm excited for the widespread proliferation of 50 kW chargers.