TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Can we clear out the 3 or 4 obvious/admitted trolls at some point before P&D then the run up to earnings?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Your Mom
Banned
Tesla will be okay, but they’ll only grow 2-3X from today’s price, which is much better than the entire market being down 30%.
I've been the organizer/ main volunteer building a mountain bike/ horse/ motorcycle bridge in the woods over the summer. We go out every couple of weeks and put in about 6 hours each so going has been pretty slow, and if you looked at the progress on any single day, the results might feel a bit underwhelming. Felling massive trees, stripping the bark off them, using hand powered grip hoists to pull 4000 pound logs 200 feet across the forest floor. Lifting them up and pulling them across the creek, building landings.... it's a crazy project. Each day we finish and it feels like we've done nothing, but then one day you slide a 4,000 pound, 45 foot long stringer across the creek and... BOOM, it looks a whole lot like a bridge. Then you still need to get a second one across, build the deck, landings, etc etcIm surprised here at the underestimating the Tesla Bot program by quite a few of y'all! Im optimistic
Remember this?
View attachment 857227
I gotta believe between SpaceX, Dojo, FSD......they already HAD the abilities to make this product work potentially instantly during the first AI day on the software side.., but it was more about the capital allocation and focusing on getting the 2 factories into production vs manufacturing something new.
Im prepared to be wowed. This is the best of the best.... making basically a life sized action figure. I picture this as a TOY.... because that's what I believe creating this is going to feel like for Teslas engineers. Childs play for them?
I don't consider the product as a toy, I FULLY see its appeal to the world in terms of manufacturing, help at home, and much much more.
Foreman? Door men? Drivers Ed Instructor?
View attachment 857232
I get excited about my project, so I won't bore you with more details. My point here is that milestones on big projects often don't look super impressive. I don't think we're anywhere near a huge milestone and I expect the progress will look from the outside to be a bit underwhelming. That doesn't mean I think there is no progress or that I don't see potential in Optimus. But I'm pretty sure we're just on the first few steps in this process. As such I think we should manage our expectations.
More to the point. We are deep in this and we have a good understanding of what the end is. Lots of far more skeptical people (not even Q people... just normal folks) will be looking at what Tesla shows and they are going to scratch their heads trying to figure out what all the big deal is about. I can hear the criticism already: "This isn't nearly as impressive as the Boston Dynamics robot, it does back flips and Parkour" Explaining the difference between the two and why it's going to be significant will give you the mother of all headaches.
So... yeah I'm chill with my expectations short term. Tesla is building something which may very well upend society. But right now its likely it doesn't look very exciting unless you have an idea of what to look for.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Obvi a typo, the ~ was supposed to be a 1
Having started dating again after a divorce a couple of years ago, I’ve heard quite a bit of negativity about Musk (unjustified and exaggerated imho) from women and have had a couple of initial encounters go south in a hurry because of this.
So I think this is a real thing and something for investors to be aware of. ‘This’ being both biased content and skewed recommendations in feeds.
Of course once the street gets all the shares they think they can, they’ll be happy to roll them into a fund and sell them back to retail—for a price—with the press singing their praises.
edit: I also know a few women who are positive about Musk. Alas, they are taken.
I have first learned about Tesla and Elon Musk when the gynaecologist was doing the dating ultrasound for our first baby. The gynaecologist had just ordered one of the first Model S when it was released in Canada. I had never heard of Tesla before. I had almost more interest in the description of Tesla by the gynaecologist than seeing the 2 femurs and the thing between them during the ultrasound. This was the greatest day of my life. Finding out about Tesla and learning I would have someone to challenge me in all sports when I would get older.
The good old times when you met a women and they knew nothing about Tesla and Musk. One less criterion to verify back then.
Now my first question on speed dating would be: « do you have at least 1000 TSLA shares? ». Then I would want to hear: « we’re talking pre-split or post-split? »
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
$100 is all TSLAQ can afford to spend at this point....
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
No, the 2 was right.
What is obvious is that "years" was supposed to be "weeks"...
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JusRelax
Active Member
Even Elon Musk makes mistakes. The difference is that our mistakes are things like forgetting to shave in the morning.
His mistakes are more along the lines of fat-fingering the wrong year into his time travel machine.
“we specialize at converting the impossible to late" - Elon Musk 2022Even Elon Musk makes mistakes. The difference is that our mistakes are things like forgetting to shave in the morning.
His mistakes are more along the lines of fat-fingering the wrong year into his time travel machine.
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Until he has Optimus attendants or his snake charging robot you summon won’t make it more than whatever range you left the car with.Even Elon Musk makes mistakes. The difference is that our mistakes are things like forgetting to shave in the morning.
His mistakes are more along the lines of fat-fingering the wrong year into his time travel machine.
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Aside from that, it should be very close right now.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Excellent point. The last time we saw Optimus, it was a human in spandex. Almost any real hardware actually working is a significant milestone and one that can demonstrate the reality of this endeavor.
I apologize if this has already been posted, but it should put Your Mom's doubts at China demand/deliveries at ease...
www.teslarati.com
Tesla China expects over 80k deliveries this month: report
Tesla is is reportedly looking to achieve domestic deliveries of about 80,000 to 90,000 vehicles this month.
www.teslarati.com
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Huge margin increase in just one quarter. Nice!I apologize if this has already been posted, but it should put Your Mom's doubts at China demand/deliveries at ease...
Tesla China expects over 80k deliveries this month: report
Tesla is is reportedly looking to achieve domestic deliveries of about 80,000 to 90,000 vehicles this month.
"There is room for price reduction: Tesla’s 22Q2 single-vehicle profit is 8,000+ US dollars, and its 22Q3 single-vehicle net profit hits 13,000 US dollars, equivalent to 80,000 yuan, which is extremely profitable,” the report read. "
Looking at this video:-I apologize if this has already been posted, but it should put Your Mom's doubts at China demand/deliveries at ease...
Tesla China expects over 80k deliveries this month: report
Tesla is is reportedly looking to achieve domestic deliveries of about 80,000 to 90,000 vehicles this month.
Fremont logistics is very busy + the number of Model S/X parked at the factory seems to have declined.
Lots of deliveries at the Fremont factory..
Q3 deliveries and margins might be good..
But Mom is right, there is a definite demand problem, repeat ..,. a definite demand problem...
Bet TSLA
Active Member
You know, I might have some patience for that excuse, except for this:
Tesla’s Musk minimized the challenges necessary to achieve a future where self-driving cars will become commonplace. “I view it as a solved problem,” said Musk, who compared autonomous cars with elevators that used to require operators, but are now self-service.
According to Musk, autonomous driving at low-speeds, about 10 miles per hour, and high-speed uniform highway travel are not difficult. “Where it gets tricky is traveling at about 10 to 50 miles per hour in urban environments,” he said, where conditions such as children playing are hard to anticipate.
This is from 2015.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Nvidia CEO Jen-Hsun Huang declare self-driving cars “solved”
Problem solved.
So, no, we're talking about something that Musk viewed as not only not "impossible" but "solved". I remember quoting him on that that to skeptics when they asked me why I was spending real money on FSD in 2017 when I wouldn't see it any time soon. That means he was not only wrong then, but he's continued to be wrong over and over. If anything, actually solving autonomous driving seems to be further away now than it was in 2015.
So, okay, the problem is really hard. I think we all know that now. But I'd like Elon to stop BS'ing and just admit he hasn't a clue. At this point that is very clear to everyone else, and he's not being an inspirational leader by saying the same wrong thing again and again. It just makes him sound idiotic. At least I don't hear him saying it's a solved problem any more.
And, by the way, I think the real problem for Musk is that there are no first principles to reason from here. AI, software in general, are not dependent in important ways on physics. Sure the hardware has some first principles constraints on energy usage. But the software? Not so you can reason about it's capabilities much.
petit_bateau
Active Member
You will know this is termed "assortative mating". I am sure you also know that in humans the medical types play the game the whole time.
JSML
Member
You know, I might have some patience for that excuse, except for this:
Tesla’s Musk minimized the challenges necessary to achieve a future where self-driving cars will become commonplace. “I view it as a solved problem,” said Musk, who compared autonomous cars with elevators that used to require operators, but are now self-service.
According to Musk, autonomous driving at low-speeds, about 10 miles per hour, and high-speed uniform highway travel are not difficult. “Where it gets tricky is traveling at about 10 to 50 miles per hour in urban environments,” he said, where conditions such as children playing are hard to anticipate.
This is from 2015.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Nvidia CEO Jen-Hsun Huang declare self-driving cars “solved”
Problem solved.fortune.com
So, no, we're talking about something that Musk viewed as not only not "impossible" but "solved". I remember quoting him on that that to skeptics when they asked me why I was spending real money on FSD in 2017 when I wouldn't see it any time soon. That means he was not only wrong then, but he's continued to be wrong over and over. If anything, actually solving autonomous driving seems to be further away now than it was in 2015.
So, okay, the problem is really hard. I think we all know that now. But I'd like Elon to stop BS'ing and just admit he hasn't a clue. At this point that is very clear to everyone else, and he's not being an inspirational leader by saying the same wrong thing again and again. It just makes him sound idiotic. At least I don't hear him saying it's a solved problem any more.
And, by the way, I think the real problem for Musk is that there are no first principles to reason from here. AI, software in general, are not dependent in important ways on physics. Sure the hardware has some first principles constraints on energy usage. But the software? Not so you can reason about it's capabilities much.
By "solved" it doesn't mean it's done as it's obvious in 2015, there were no autonomous cars on the road. "Solved" mean in theory sort of like splitting the atom before it was actually done. I believe Elon still think this is true that in theory it's solved and that Tesla will solve the problem. Elon is way wrong on the timing and the difficulty no doubt but he hasn't waivered that Tesla will solve it and I believe him. Sometimes it's that unwavering belief that drives a company.
Solved == theory is done
Working == engineering is done
Working == engineering is done
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