Krugerrand
Meow
FYI, don’t disagree with you or you posting the tweet. Disagree with the content of the tweet.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I don't have a problem with Gary at all. He gives exposure to how wall street sees it and he is not wrong on why wall street would buy in or sell off. People may have problem with the reasoning because it's short sighted but that's just how Wallstreet goes, a bunch of people who only looks at short term things and extrapolate that for the destiny of the company until something changes. Tesla is always changing, therefore we get these crazy highs and crazy lows.
Are you sure Elon isn't looking for an out on a stupid deal?
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Hard to believe but a SA bear is leaning bullish on TSLA and wrote a reasonable article. Bottom indicator?
seekingalpha.com
Tesla Stock: One Of The Largest Bears Changing His Tune
Tesla is proving me wrong; its progress is undeniable and its valuation is getting more realistic. See why I'm starting to gravitate toward bullish on TSLA.
seekingalpha.com
There are a lot of questions being asked at the moment about will Elon sell to fund the last of the Twitter purchase, how much and when. (This directly affects TSLA investors more than just Elon/Twitter speculation).
I've seen the talk and calculations from pundits like Gary Black but some things don't seem to add up. Below is a table Gary posted from a while back when he was still talking about a lower priced deal.
A lot of the above calculations seem OK but there appears to be a number of assumptions buried in the table. These include the amount of taxes payable on Elon's sales from this year (the 15.4 figure) and what other equity Elon may have already had on hand. I've been trying to find a better summary of all the equity and costs but haven't found anything decent.
So I thought I'd have a go at pulling some figures together. The table below is my best attempt at summarising all of the sales and costs. I've drawn from Reuters, Forbes, Bloomberg and similar articles on the sales and the Twitter deal to try to make sense of it. Some of this was also inspired by @bkp_duke post earlier about people not knowing what Elon's cash balance is.
Here's my table:
So after the 10% TSLA sales last year, it appears Elon had around $5B in cash on hand. No-one seems to be considering what's left of these funds for the Twitter deal and we don't know for sure what if anything is left over from it (I would suspect much of it). He would probably have bought is initial 9% from this but waht else does he have? There was some talk at the time of funds to start TITS and also a charitable donation. However from reports at the time it appears Elon made the $5.7B mystery charitable donation with a gift of shares, not cash.
For the recent sales totalling $16.4B, it appears Gary Black assumes Elon has to take out $1B for taxes. But as @bkp_duke has pointed out, if recent high cost exercised shares were sold then there may be no tax payable.
The other wildcard is how many of the $7.1B in committed equity partners is still in the deal. It appears that these are locked in so I would presume they along with the $13B in bank LBO loans are locked in. There has also been talk of other equity partners such as Ken Griffin (Citadel) coming in and we don't know how many of these there are. I've seen the extra $2.5B committed for closing costs being reported but I'm not sure what reconciliation occurs for the actual costs incurred.
I may have some figures or logic wrong so please pull me up on anything that doesn't look right.
So will Elon sell, how much and when - I dont know! It will be interesting to see how all this plays out. Massive front running shorting sell-off, gamma squeeze rally or something in between?
Edit: Updated to include @mongo comment re the initial TWTR 9% purchase.
I've seen the talk and calculations from pundits like Gary Black but some things don't seem to add up. Below is a table Gary posted from a while back when he was still talking about a lower priced deal.
A lot of the above calculations seem OK but there appears to be a number of assumptions buried in the table. These include the amount of taxes payable on Elon's sales from this year (the 15.4 figure) and what other equity Elon may have already had on hand. I've been trying to find a better summary of all the equity and costs but haven't found anything decent.
So I thought I'd have a go at pulling some figures together. The table below is my best attempt at summarising all of the sales and costs. I've drawn from Reuters, Forbes, Bloomberg and similar articles on the sales and the Twitter deal to try to make sense of it. Some of this was also inspired by @bkp_duke post earlier about people not knowing what Elon's cash balance is.
Here's my table:
So after the 10% TSLA sales last year, it appears Elon had around $5B in cash on hand. No-one seems to be considering what's left of these funds for the Twitter deal and we don't know for sure what if anything is left over from it (I would suspect much of it). He would probably have bought is initial 9% from this but waht else does he have? There was some talk at the time of funds to start TITS and also a charitable donation. However from reports at the time it appears Elon made the $5.7B mystery charitable donation with a gift of shares, not cash.
For the recent sales totalling $16.4B, it appears Gary Black assumes Elon has to take out $1B for taxes. But as @bkp_duke has pointed out, if recent high cost exercised shares were sold then there may be no tax payable.
The other wildcard is how many of the $7.1B in committed equity partners is still in the deal. It appears that these are locked in so I would presume they along with the $13B in bank LBO loans are locked in. There has also been talk of other equity partners such as Ken Griffin (Citadel) coming in and we don't know how many of these there are. I've seen the extra $2.5B committed for closing costs being reported but I'm not sure what reconciliation occurs for the actual costs incurred.
I may have some figures or logic wrong so please pull me up on anything that doesn't look right.
So will Elon sell, how much and when - I dont know! It will be interesting to see how all this plays out. Massive front running shorting sell-off, gamma squeeze rally or something in between?
Edit: Updated to include @mongo comment re the initial TWTR 9% purchase.
Attachments
Last edited:
Certainly we don't have the boogieman selling today.
Gary is a mild Tesla Bull who provides a reasoned and balanced Wall Street point of view. Yes he trends conservative most of the time but so does most of Wall Street as well. At least Gary admits the huge upside for Tesla's future long term even while he scrutinizes every minute detail about the company today.
I guess he doesn't bother me because I understand his point of view and don't expect anything else from him.
The GeicoTaikisha paint shop as installed in Berlin cannot be retrofitted in any traditional factory because it is designed to be totally integrated in an integrated factory operation, so scheduling and processing are designed to be so deeply integrated that a new factory is needed. Both Berlin and Austin have them. AKAIK we do not know for certain about Shanghai, but the new colors emerging there will prove the point. Fremont is highly unlikely due to the mishmash of facilities there. Obviously, with Tesla anything is possible, however improbable.I remember Elon commenting somewhere long ago that Fremont and Shanghai would eventually get upgraded paint systems so that they could much easier offer the fancy colors possible from Berlin and Austin. I guess to do this for the crowded and messy Fremont factory they would have to shut down for at least a week - or make room for a new paint shop somehow. Can they build more floors on the factory buildings?
And btw I really like this new color. I think I have seen it before but can't quite remember where?
The biggest advantages of that paint shop is in reduced cost (~$150 per car)as a result of reduced labor, waste (>half the paint), drying facilities, rework (almost zero), durability and faster line speeds.
This link gives more information:
It seems likely that Tesla Berlin was the first Smart Paint Shop installed. They are such a huge advance that they can be likened to GigaPress in their overall impact. For some reason this has had less attention from us than it deserves. Tesla Austin has that plant also.
The environmental impact, cost savings and additional revenue from new color options makes the overall impact larger than anybody seems to understand. However, all the cost savings are trivial when compared with...
color choices- since Tesla and others charge ~$2000 for some colors (e.g. Model 3 US MCR) and a minimum of $1000 (e.g. Model 3 US DBM) today. The brilliance and depth of the new paint options almost assure much higher optional selections, while almost all of them will end out costing minimal extra for Tesla, since they'll use ~70% less paint than older paint shops.
We can fairly easily establish the economic impact now, but not the take rates nor pricing of the optional colors. Fro that reason we can be assured of a minimum cost reduction of ~$150 per vehicle due to all the eliminated steps. The actual impact will be, and probably already is, much greater.
Krugerrand
Meow
Questioning one’s self is a form of self-awareness.Our CEO may or may not be crazy according to himself.
In my experience, in my field, any time someone has approached me with doubt about their abilities and/or the ability to gain required abilities it has always been an indication (that proves true) they’ll do just fine in the end. These people try harder in every aspect and continually examine themselves, their progress and where they want to get to.
Wondering if you’re crazy is part of the same process. It indicates you’re doing/feeling something that no one else around you appears to be doing/feeling. There’s a feeling you’re alone, often that the obstacles/challenges/negativity is never ending.
His brain never stops, never shuts up. For people built ‘normally’ (where normal indicates majority) that really creates crazy.
Humans have always suffered mental illness. Perhaps we suffer more now than in our history because of man made chemicals and conditions. I don’t know. But it has become more acceptable to talk about it and acquire treatment. However, questioning one’s sanity isn’t typically done by truly crazy people. So Elon’s good.
Last edited:
Did you subtract the purchase cost of Elon's TWTR holdings from free cash?
Very good Point. I'll make an edit to the original post.
F@#K the jinx.
I see green.
Well, Optimii will only come in one color! So deal with it, old world!
I see green.
Those picky Europeans with their Option desires right from the start.
Well, Optimii will only come in one color! So deal with it, old world!
Krugerrand
Meow
You lost me at the opening parentheses. Perhaps I’m wrong in defining myself as a *TSLA investor* and I am being affected by Elon/Twitter speculation and I just don’t know it. Guess I’ll find out when I’m done *investing*.
But setting that aside, that’s a whole lot of effort you put in to not be any further ahead or closer to an answer that nobody but Elon (and perhaps his closest pals/partners) can ever know until something actually happens. It (the exercise you just went through that a bunch of other people have also gone through to arrive at the exact same mystery) certainly adds to the fascination that is humans. Something about doing the same thing over and over again but expecting a different result something.
That seems incredibly short sighted on the part of the Austin plant. New colors to the US would be extremely welcome.
Krugerrand
Meow
Wait a few seconds, he needs his beauty sleep too - oh, nuts. Is that him now?
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
That seems incredibly short sighted on the part of the Austin plant. New colors to the US would be extremely welcome.
Maybe that's what this permit is about. Bringing the Austin paint shop up to Berlin spec:
Tesla acquires permit to expand and upgrade the paint shop at Giga Texas as Model Y production ramps up - Tesla Oracle
Tesla has secured a permit to expand and upgrade the Giga Texas paint shop. Aerial video of the factory shows components and machines brought in for the purpose.
www.teslaoracle.com
Wow, things are spicy today
Yeah didn't Pierre Ferragu complimented the Model Y doors from Berlin and was blown away at how "luxurious" it felt? It's an european thing. The Chinese cares more about floods and road suspension durability, the Europeans want luxury options, and Americans want a bull horn attached to their model 3 per Texas intro video.
ZachF
Active Member
It’s kinda amazing how the Japanese yen is in complete collapse and no one is talking about it….
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
