Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mengy]

TSLA seems to be showing relative strength to the S&P and Nasdaq in the last hour or two.

Not as much as Ford is (TSLA down 3%, F up 2%). This on news that Ford sales were up 3.2% for Q4. Of course, Tesla sales were up much more than that, but meh that isn't important to the market....

 

[kclifton]

Holy hell, man! Those rates are crazy-go-nuts BONKERS.

Here's the GA Power BEV TOU plan:

View attachment 892567

And the people here complain about high rates, and needing to pay a tariff to bring Vogtle 3&4 reactors online. I may not agree with my neighbors on a lot of politics, but I'll certainly take these utility rates!!!

SDGE had to get in on the action too...

 

[TSLA Pilot]

Thanks for the reminder, just bought 50 myself.

On that note, can anyone confirm that the IRS 30-day Wash Rule precludes buying more shares, even in retirement accounts, if you had sold shares in a "trading account" within the last 30 days? That's what my research suggests so I have to sit on my hands for another few weeks, which is painful.

I sure as heck didn't want to sell as these were shares purchased around a decade ago, but had no choice (at ~$151, thankfully) after feeding the margin monster for oh so many months . . . .

Can't afford to risk any more damage from the IRS if I buy back in too early!

 

[jhm]

Holy hell, man! Those rates are crazy-go-nuts BONKERS.

Here's the GA Power BEV TOU plan:

View attachment 892567

And the people here complain about high rates, and needing to pay a tariff to bring Vogtle 3&4 reactors online. I may not agree with my neighbors on a lot of politics, but I'll certainly take these utility rates!!!

The spread could be high enough to pay for a PowerWall.

 

[Knightshade]

On that note, can anyone confirm that the IRS 30-day Wash Rule precludes buying more shares, even in retirement accounts, if you had sold shares in a "trading account" within the last 30 days? That's what my research suggests so I have to sit on my hands for another few weeks, which is painful.

I sure as heck didn't want to sell as these were shares purchased around a decade ago, but had no choice (at ~$151, thankfully) after feeding the margin monster for oh so many months . . . .

Can't afford to risk any more damage from the IRS if I buy back in too early!

AFAIK the IRS doesn't care what account it's in for wash purposes, so you potentially lose the write-off entirely if loss is a taxable then buying in a non-taxable makes it a wash.

 

[2101Guy]

SDGE had to get in on the action too...View attachment 892645

Yikes! Those rates.

Im lucky here in VA I guess.

 

[EVNow]

Although I understand what the Fed is trying to do, there is this perverse logic:
With 10% inflation, many of us can only afford 90% of what we need/want. By forcing unemployment on some (where they will afford 0% of what they need/want), the rest of us can go back to 100%. In other words, some of you will need to lose your job so I can get back to 3% inflation. Thanks in advance!

Actually Powell said he prefers higher immigration.

Fed Chair Finds Trump-Era Immigration Policies Still Harm Economy

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Trump-era immigration policies have contributed to inflation and continue to damage the U.S. economy.

www.forbes.com

'We need more people,' says Fed's Powell, but what does that mean for immigration reform?

Fed chief Jerome Powell shows he's thinking about how lower immigration factors into the U.S. labor shortage, but he stops short of pushing Congress to act.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[petit_bateau]

Interesting product, exactly what I need. So I start reading the installation manual.
It turns out that although it is rated IP66, the installation manual explicitly requires you to install it under an awning to protect it from direct sunlight and rain. I don’t call that weather proof.
Powerwall is IP67. I don’t have access to an installation manual but I haven’t heard it requires installation under an awning. The Tesla site says water-proof and robust against all weather.
It basically confirms my prejudice about Chinese products versus quality western products.

Interesting. I'm not rushing to read the manual .... does it "require" or "advise" ? If the latter then that would absolutely make sense and it is good practice - all the industry studies are showing that inverters are getting much better MTBF if they are mounted either inside or in sun-shaded/rainproof areas (i.e. simply being below an array of solar panels will do). The last set of data I saw came out of one of the US nationa labs and they discuss the causal issues.

Personally I prefer to install inverters in cool non-inhabited spaces such as garages, and batteries outside but in well-sheltered locations. Both ideally relatively fireproof or at least not on inhabited structures. So in my own case for the 30 kWh SolarEdge system we are putting in at present the inverter goes in a brick-built garage and the batteries go on the outside of the brick wall, but in an area that is well shaded/sheltered.

So .... if you want an easy pick for a non-Tesla alternative, go SolarEdge. How much of the contents comes out of China I can't be sure.

I would absolutely not be as prejudiced about Chinese product versus so-called "quality" Western products as you are. One needs to be a bit more selective than that imho.

 

[scaesare]

Ryan Reynolds is a neighbor and I just saw him get out of a Lucid. He used to have a Plaid Model S. That should be the last of the bad news so the bottom is in. Time to buy!

View attachment 892635

I can only assume he'll post on Instagram blaming Blake for the bad choice....

 

[thx1139]

FYI it is January 5th Noon Central. Tesla website still makes no mention of tax credits for Model 3 or Model Y LR 7 seater.

 

[SN_8]

On that note, can anyone confirm that the IRS 30-day Wash Rule precludes buying more shares, even in retirement accounts, if you had sold shares in a "trading account" within the last 30 days?

(US specific) Yes, and that's the most dangerous part of the wash rule. Typically you'd be able to claim the loss eventually, but NOT if the loss gets permanently disallowed due to a purchase in a non-taxable account within the 60 day window.

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

On that note, can anyone confirm that the IRS 30-day Wash Rule precludes buying more shares, even in retirement accounts, if you had sold shares in a "trading account" within the last 30 days? That's what my research suggests so I have to sit on my hands for another few weeks, which is painful.

I sure as heck didn't want to sell as these were shares purchased around a decade ago, but had no choice (at ~$151, thankfully) after feeding the margin monster for oh so many months . . . .

Can't afford to risk any more damage from the IRS if I buy back in too early!

I believe so. You also can't "prebuy" shares in another account to sell the loss later. V annoying

 

[TespaceX]

SDGE had to get in on the action too...View attachment 892645

But, that super off-peak is super low for CA utility. My “favorable” TOU rate may not be as high as SDGE at $0.58/kWh, but my super off-peak rate is $0.27/kWh. Give and take. I’d rather have that insanely low off-peak rate to charge the car and batteries.

 

[Max Plaid]

Presumably the Street buys calls as they back out of their short positions? They’ll be maneuvering to reap the dumb shorts while trying not to lose control of the share price and trigger a short squeeze I guess.

They have the ability to continue to short of course. There must be practical limits to the ability to naked short even if the SEC turns a blind eye. There likely may also be actual shares floating around earmarked to sell to cool things off if need be.

Or am I missing something in how this shell game works?

One really wonders who's selling right now? Seems to me that most of the retail on margin already capitulated, likely most retail left are early investors who still see a strong return on their initial investment

TBH, I think you need to be brave, or stupid, to short down here, the trade must be very crowded indeed. However, I think the primary mechanism recently has been the massive put selling every week, forcing the MM's to hedge and sell stock. Put selling is less risky than short-selling shares, so they can be bolder

But again, why sell short here? People and institutions primarily trade to make profits, the profit on the downside seems severely limited at this price-point, makes no sense. I do wonder if it's not covertly backed by some nefarious deep-pockets - not that the SP going low will necessarily hurt the company, but it froments anger with shareholderst. It's one of my pet theories that they keep forcing the price down to try to get Elon ousted from the company. I may be in cloud-cuckoo land, but it's one of the few reasons I can think for this continual selling, along with the barrage of FUD levelled at home (some of which he has Brough own himself, of course)

But it also might just be the Hedgies - after all there were a lot of >2 years LEAPS sold during the spilt and S&P run-ups that would be worth a fortune over the last few months, huge motivation to kill the SP and wipe them all out

And now, with the puts piling-up, maybe it's time to harvest those...?

Also we must note that many shareholders have been converting shares to LEAPS recently, that will surely put upward price-pressure on the stock over time

But until we get some kind of positive news, good earnings, new models, refreshes, CT order page at competitive prices, etc., it's hard to see a recovery... the silence from Tesla is quite deafening

 

[bballshinobi]

One really wonders who's selling right now? Seems to me that most of the retail on margin already capitulated, likely most retail left are early investors who still see a strong return on their initial investment

TBH, I think you need to be brave, or stupid, to short down here, the trade must be very crowded indeed. However, I think the primary mechanism recently has been the massive put selling every week, forcing the MM's to hedge and sell stock. Put selling is less risky than short-selling shares, so they can be bolder

But again, why sell short here? People and institutions primarily trade to make profits, the profit on the downside seems severely limited at this price-point, makes no sense. I do wonder if it's not covertly backed by some nefarious deep-pockets - not that the SP going low will necessarily hurt the company, but it froments anger with shareholderst. It's one of my pet theories that they keep forcing the price down to try to get Elon ousted from the company. I may be in cloud-cuckoo land, but it's one of the few reasons I can think for this continual selling, along with the barrage of FUD levelled at home (some of which he has Brough own himself, of course)

But it also might just be the Hedgies - after all there were a lot of >2 years LEAPS sold during the spilt and S&P run-ups that would be worth a fortune over the last few months, huge motivation to kill the SP and wipe them all out

And now, with the puts piling-up, maybe it's time to harvest those...?

Also we must note that many shareholders have been converting shares to LEAPS recently, that will surely put upward price-pressure on the stock over time

But until we get some kind of positive news, good earnings, new models, refreshes, CT order page at competitive prices, etc., it's hard to see a recovery... the silence from Tesla is quite deafening

Traders/shareholders selling puts doesn'tforce the MMs to delta hedge and sell stock. Buying puts does that.

 

[Drax7]

Ryan Reynolds is a neighbor and I just saw him get out of a Lucid. He used to have a Plaid Model S. That should be the last of the bad news so the bottom is in. Time to buy!

View attachment 892635

Good luck replacing the parts when they go out of business.

 

[AndrewZ]

Would a buyback look like that though?

Pretty sure paperwork needs to be filed by companies looking to engage in buybacks, companies in Canada use something called a Normal-course Issuer Bid

Not sure how it works exactly in the US but people will likely know about them long before they actually happen

Good luck replacing the parts when they go out of business.

I think the government would bail out Lucid just to spare any headaches for Ryan Reynolds

Bullish

 

[Ogre]

Good luck replacing the parts when they go out of business.

Don't think RR is too worried about that issue.

 

[Snerruc]

Interesting, I was just on the Tesla site and it showed the same price for 5 and 7 seat y’s. Glitch or?? Also it showed 32 y’s available for delivery in Florida. That’s the most I’ve seen.

 

[TespaceX]

Holy hell, man! Those rates are crazy-go-nuts BONKERS.

Here's the GA Power BEV TOU plan:

View attachment 892567

And the people here complain about high rates, and needing to pay a tariff to bring Vogtle 3&4 reactors online. I may not agree with my neighbors on a lot of politics, but I'll certainly take these utility rates!!!

I know we’re talking about electricity prices and aware that rates on that side of the country is low. But, on the flip side, your guys’ gas prices is about double the gas rate on the West.