Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JRP3]

"Our investors will be able to see our most advanced production line as well as discuss long term expansion plans, generation 3 platform, capital allocation and other subjects with our leadership team."

If I had to say, I would guess the Next generation is based on their 3rd iteration of a production system, rater than the type of model.

That's possible, the quote actually says gen 3 "platform" not "vehicle" and the Roadster wasn't built on a Tesla platform.

 

[phantasms]

This gen 0123 thing is worse than talking about politics.

 

[ggr]

This gen 0123 thing is worse than talking about politics.

No it isn't.

 

[MC3OZ]

That doesn't seem remotely possible. I think there is still a few kgs of Cobalt in even the smallest EV pack.

I'm not sure on the numbers, and 10 does seem way too low. It may be more like 100.

But there is a lot of cobalt percentage wise in smart phone batteries, probably especially older smart phone batteries.

LFP and LMFP don't use Cobalt.

Tesla and other are working on high Nickel batteries with less Cobalt or no Cobalt.

LMNO is another potentially interesting chemistry.

When Elon talks about Manganese, I don't know if he is talking about NMC, LMFP, or LMNO, or all 3.

The March 1 investor update may go into more details on battery raw material supply chains.

 

[Mardak]

Also a bunch of posts about safety earlier today

Looks like this included updating Autopilot / vehicle safety numbers up to 2022 Q3: Tesla Vehicle Safety Report

The previous update was in January 2022, and it seems like the delay was potentially related to Tesla updating how they report the mileage:

*Update (January 2023):​

We are proud of Autopilot’s performance and its impact on reducing traffic collisions. The benefit and promise of Autopilot is clear from the Vehicle Safety Report data that we have been sharing for 4 years. As part of Tesla’s commitment to continuous improvement, recent analysis led us to identify and implement upgrades to our data reporting. Specifically, we discovered reports of certain events where no airbag or other active restraint deployed, single events that were counted more than once, and reports of invalid or duplicated mileage records. Including these events is inconsistent with our methodology for the Vehicle Safety Report and they will be excluded going forward. These upgrades in data analysis reinforce the positive impact that Autopilot has on vehicle safety. To ensure the accuracy of our reporting, we updated all collision rates historically to account for these upgrades, including the baseline collision rates for the United States based on currently available NHTSA and FHWA data. (Note that for purposes of the baseline collision rates in the United States, an automobile crash is one that involves at least one passenger vehicle, light truck, SUV or van that is 10,000 pounds or less, as classified by available federal data.) The end result is that, when Autopilot is active, the collision rates are even lower than we previously reported.​

​

Here's a comparison of how the Autopilot data compares to the old methodology looking at trailing twelve months to try to reduce seasonal/quarterly biases:

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Yes, can we please stop posting Tesla Economist.

Welllllll excuuuuuse me. Personally I think he's a good case study and deserves his own thread. Does one exist yet?

 

[GOVA]

Today Elon tweeted this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1611787267340926976

What's truly hilarious is that it's the one year anniversary of this Elon tweet:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1479590174828998663

So is "about two weeks" around half the time of "probably next month"?

No matter how you slice it, this sugar is going to get completed 100%. Once this happens, it will only get better and better. Eventually, it will surpass all humans together that have ever driven a car in its ability to do so. It will continue improving forever.

The cool part is that it applies to ALL A.I.'s that are properly implemnted. Optimus will follow the same path.

At the same time, and this is what scares Elon, the infinite improvement will make humans irrelevant.

Let's hope Neuralink will happen on time.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Tesla TSLA Receives $500 PT by 2026 from ARK Invest, Based on EVs Alone

Ark Invest has updated its Tesla price target for 2026. Including the stock split, and excluding any of Tesla's businesses other than EVs, the firm expects the price to be $500 per share, four times the current price.

www.tesmanian.com

ARK Invest analyst Tasha Keeney has published an update on the firm's view of Tesla's share price in 2026. The forecast has been adjusted to reflect a 3-for-1 stock split that took effect on August 25, 2022. The new $500-per-share PT included only an assessment of growth potential in the automotive division and excluded all others. The adjusted price is four times the current price.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Here's Tasha's original analysis and model. It was published in April of last year so it doesn't reflect the most recent 3-1 split.

ARK’s Expected Value For Tesla In 2026: $4,600 per Share

ARK’s updated open-source Tesla model yields an expected value per share of $4,600 in 2026. Please explore and test our assumptions.

ark-invest.com

 

[CHGolferJim]

Tesla TSLA Receives $500 PT by 2026 from ARK Invest, Based on EVs Alone

Ark Invest has updated its Tesla price target for 2026. Including the stock split, and excluding any of Tesla's businesses other than EVs, the firm expects the price to be $500 per share, four times the current price.

www.tesmanian.com

ARK Invest analyst Tasha Keeney has published an update on the firm's view of Tesla's share price in 2026. The forecast has been adjusted to reflect a 3-for-1 stock split that took effect on August 25, 2022. The new $500-per-share PT included only an assessment of growth potential in the automotive division and excluded all others. The adjusted price is four times the current price.

I have in my notes with 20-30 analyst projections that it was $1,541 ($967 bear; $1,900 bull). Is it seriously to be believed that those numbers were pre-3:1 split? Gary Black is at $833 in 2025.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I have in my notes with 20-30 analyst projections that it was $1,541 ($967 bear; $1,900 bull). Is it seriously to be believed that those numbers were pre-3:1 split? Gary Black is at $833 in 2025.

The $500 PT is post split. The analysis on ARK's website is pre-split when they say $4600

 

[ripper88]

I never bought into the formal “MSM FUD” line of thought, but today I’m certainly pondering these stories more because they are all coming down at the same time.

Of course, ”Tesla” will gain clicks/readers, so it could all still be simply looking for a larger audience with spending little time with minimal background research.

It's called short and distort.

You can be sure that big organized short sellers work hand in hand with anybody that can get their negative messages out to the masses. That includes large established media companies, organized troll armies on Facebook, Reddit and Twitter etc. You can see clearly when the same carefully selected negative message is repeated over and over in all the places I described above sometime word for word. I have seen the same negative message spammed to many unrelated Reddit subreddits and upvoted at the same time for high visibility. The technology subreddit is one where it happens regularly.

Who would love to buy a Tesla? Most likely someone in the Reddit technology subreddit that's who. But when they see constant coordinated negative posts regarding Elon, Tesla build quality, FSD, and any number of other things, they think twice about buying one. You don't want to see the most upvoted comments on those posts. Concern trolls everywhere. They do their best to cover the brand and Elon in sugar to get what they want and unfortunately it works. There is just way too much in it for everyone involved.

One of the best places to see this firsthand is to go to Electrek's comment section for any post they have regarding Tesla or Elon. I don't know if it's happening today because I refuse to go to that sh*thole website for any reason. But it was really bad back in the day and I am sure it's still bad today. Parroting the same negative messages telling you reliability is terrible, whompy wheels (old one ), FSD is super dangerous, they lie about range, etc.

Can I prove any of this? No. But when you see the same thing happening over and over for many years, it has to be organized and it has to be profitable for the people that make it happen.

 

[Drumheller]

$500 in 2026 when the stock already hit $414 in 2021? Is the general view that Tsla was way overshot the actual value at that point? That isn't my view.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

$500 in 2026 when the stock already hit $414 in 2021? Is the general view that Tsla was way overshot the actual value at that point? That isn't my view.

$500 is for just autos, ignoring energy, software, etc.

 

[heltok]

Yes, Tesla's current positioning, strong margins and growing sales are all direct evidence of the 3D chess being played by Elon and team. People who can't see that are forever stuck playing 2D chess and will never understand how difficult it is to play 3D chess, especially when there are so many in the gallery calling the Elon's gameplay a fraud while simultaneously moving the pieces whenever they think no one is looking.

The media coverage of the chess match is rigged too. Somehow, the observers moving the pieces at opportunistic times never get caught on camera because they are tipped off when a commercial is happening. Elon has stopped pointing out when an on-looker switches a piece to a different position during a commercial break because the media pretends like Elon must have imagined it and they act put-off, as if Elon is spoiked and asking for special favors when he politely points out that the pieces had been moved out of turn. And the camera position is carefully selected to make it look like there is only the top chess board so casual observers don't even understand it's actually 3D chess. This allows the commentator to tell the audience how foolish each move made by Elon and team while extolling the brilliance of moves made by his opponents.

The net result is that Elon can have his opponent in check on two of the three levels, but viewers think Elon and team are constantly at risk of being checkmated, although the reality is often that his opponents have been reduced to playing defense on every move due to Elon's strong moves on the middle and lower levels. While Elon waits for his opponents to make their next move, he uses his phone to quietly Tweet his latest thoughts to his fans to prevent boredom from setting in. This is not missed by the media because most chess players don't Tweet in the middle of an important match. They claim it's an afront to the international chess community and suggest it's a sign that he's dangerously detached from the game, that he doesn't respect its history, and that he's about to take a real licking. The media will never dare suggest it's because he's so bored with the conventional moves being made by his opponents. Remember, the media can only get away with such obvious lies because most people at home can't even see the chess board has three levels, they are focused intently on the only level captured by the cameras as if it's the only level that exists.

Right before Elon and team make the final victorious move of each match, the media will cut to a commercial break, a slick commercial extolling the virtues of his competitors' products. They focus, not on how expensive and crappy their products actually are, but the beautiful wild and unspoiled places they can take you. Sometimes they even Photoshop the tailpipe from the images so as to not remind viewers of the smelly exhaust gases emitted into the unspoiled wilderness. After the break, they will pick up on the next match as if the last one never happened. The viewers at home are none the wiser that Elon and Team won, yet another, consecutive match.

Elon and team don't get upset, they knew the game of appearances was rigged before they signed up and that the media would not be covering this as if it were a 3D chess championship but rather a game of social etiquette with the rules to be adjusted and optimized as the game was played. There will even be special powers granted to some contestants in the middle of the championship under the guise of speeding the gameplay along.

None of that ruffled the feathers of Elon and team, for they knew the only game rigged against them was the game of appearances. The actual game itself was rigged so strongly in their favor; it was almost too good to be true. They could see that, as long as they used a strategy crafted using sound reasoning, that they could not lose. Elon and team saw that their opponents had a lot of ideas about the best way to play the game that were simply wrong. They focused on the wrong things and used the wrong strategies. Much of this was due to being overly concerned with appearances. Elon's opponents knew that the board on top was the only one visible to observers at home and that caused them to make serious strategic errors, one after another. On the other hand, Elon played the game in the most optimal manner, taking all three levels into consideration before making a move, even if it caused the viewers at home to think he was doing it wrong. He had to get all three levels properly lined up before he could make his winning moves. But he didn't worry about what the people at home thought about his gameplay, he wanted to win!

In the first several matches he made some valuable observations. Initially, he was plainly offended when observers in the gallery would reach over and illegally move the pieces whenever the cameras would cut to a commercial break. However, he quickly discovered the moves were, more often than not, in his favor, once he considered the deeper implications of each move. So he started using those illegal moves to his advantage rather than complain about them. He even discovered the special powers which he at first believed unfairly rewarded his competitors were actually to his long-term advantage. He couldn't believe his luck but his competitors that had been granted special advantages started squandering them in ways that made little sense to Elon. They changed their strategies to more fully maximize those powers, but Elon could see how this actually made them weaker over time. They also tended to become lazier, the more they believed they had a competitive edge, the less they felt they needed to think through their moves as fully. Elon capitalized upon their numerous mistakes and used what his opponents believed was an unsurmountable strength, against them. He did this not by attacking them but by relentless moving his pieces into more fovorable positions, even when those moves looked foolish to viewers at home.

Observers at home began to think the championship was hopelessly stacked against Elon and team and wonder why they look so unconcerned. But Elon understands 3D chess is not about appearances, and he's not about to let his commanding lead turn into a liability, it's about making every move with your eye on the goal, getting your pieces on all 3 levels properly lined up for victory at the end.

When Elon finally wins the overall Championship, the media will say it was never a contest to begin with, but a group effort to learn more about chess and that every player contributed as much as they could to make the goal a reality. They will point out that some of the biggest contributors were those who died before the conclusion of the championship, because they tried so hard, they paid the ultimate price. That they led the movement so valiantly, that they died trying, the true heroes of chess. They will even suggest they might not have died if Elon hadn't distressed them so much by Tweeting in the middle of every match like a spoiled and uncouth youth.

Speaking of 3D chess. I think it's important to understand what it looks like to be outplayed. We seldom are the least smart person in the room so we don't really know what it feels like to be outsmarted. This is why we struggle to understand what a super-AGI would look like, how can something be much smarter than us? Well if we were a lot less smart than the people around us it would not be to hard to understand.

I liked the book Life 3.0 where Max give some examples. For example imagine that a bunch of kids have taken an adult prisoner. The adult then uses some strange adult logic to outsmart the kids to letting the adult out. Or imagine that you are a gorilla and these tiny pale humans starts making a fuss. You know you can handle the human in battle, your muscles are bigger and your bite is stronger, but then suddenly a helicopter with a machine gun appears and you risk extinction.

In the game of chess that Tesla is playing, the commentators talk about Tesla being a queen behind in market share, that they are trading a pawn with the competition in the first month of the quarter, trading a piece with Ford with Trucks see the competition is narrowing down on Tesla, that their king is looking exposed not having castled with SEC ready to attack him etc. But then suddenly the position of Tesla is very strong and somehow they end up winning the market. If you want to see an example of this, this is a great series where a supergm sacrificies his queen in every game yet still wins:

These are not weak opponents, but they get outplayed like beginners. This is what legacy industry is looking compared to Tesla with autopilot, FSD, batteries, megacasting, octovalve, margins etc. But hey, any day the competition will be coming, at least they still have the queen in the market share right.

So what would it look like if Tesla is outsmarting the competition? It would seem like they are making strange moves, that they should be losing, yet somehow their position keeps improving year after year, their sales grow, their profit grows etc. Even though they should be losing because clearly they are worse right? And they do silly strange mistakes? But somehow, something confusing happens and they stay in the game, they improve and suddenly they find themselves behind. Then they know they have been outsmarted.

 

[GOVA]

It's called short and distort.

You can be sure that big organized short sellers work hand in hand with anybody that can get their negative messages out to the masses. That includes large established media companies, organized troll armies on Facebook, Reddit and Twitter etc. You can see clearly when the same carefully selected negative message is repeated over and over in all the places I described above sometime word for word. I have seen the same negative message spammed to many unrelated Reddit subreddits and upvoted at the same time for high visibility. The technology subreddit is one where it happens regularly.

Who would love to buy a Tesla? Most likely someone in the Reddit technology subreddit that's who. But when they see constant coordinated negative posts regarding Elon, Tesla build quality, FSD, and any number of other things, they think twice about buying one. You don't want to see the most upvoted comments on those posts. Concern trolls everywhere. They do their best to cover the brand and Elon in sugar to get what they want and unfortunately it works. There is just way too much in it for everyone involved.

One of the best places to see this firsthand is to go to Electrek's comment section for any post they have regarding Tesla or Elon. I don't know if it's happening today because I refuse to go to that sh*thole website for any reason. But it was really bad back in the day and I am sure it's still bad today. Parroting the same negative messages telling you reliability is terrible, whompy wheels (old one ), FSD is super dangerous, they lie about range, etc.

Can I prove any of this? No. But when you see the same thing happening over and over for many years, it has to be organized and it has to be profitable for the people that make it happen.

Agree 100%. Great post.

Electrek is a POS. Fred is a cheap, attention seeking POS. That site comment secion has been worse than a disease.

 

[MikeC]

Zerosum33 was on a Twitter Spaces yesterday (starts at 1:49:00) talking about Megapack earnings potential: https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1nAKErbnvwRGL

He initially seemed too bullish out of nowhere but he sounds credible and Gary Black and Matt from Good Soil have recently gone on record that they can't discount his thesis. More in Tesla Stationary Storage Investors Thread

 

[dhanson865]

zerosum33 was on a Twitter Spaces yesterday (starts at 1:49) talking about Megapack earnings potential: https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1nAKErbnvwRGL

He initially seemed too bullish out of nowhere but he sounds credible and Gary Black and Matt for Good Soil have recently gone on record that they can't discount his thesis. More in Tesla Stationary Storage Investors Thread

Note: that's 1 h 49 m , NOT 1 min 49 sec.

Player only does 1x, 1.5x, 2x speed so you can't do something reasonable like 1.1x or 1.2x and will need to listen real time.

 

[mrmage]

Looks like this included updating Autopilot / vehicle safety numbers up to 2022 Q3: Tesla Vehicle Safety Report

The previous update was in January 2022, and it seems like the delay was potentially related to Tesla updating how they report the mileage:

*Update (January 2023):​

We are proud of Autopilot’s performance and its impact on reducing traffic collisions. The benefit and promise of Autopilot is clear from the Vehicle Safety Report data that we have been sharing for 4 years. As part of Tesla’s commitment to continuous improvement, recent analysis led us to identify and implement upgrades to our data reporting. Specifically, we discovered reports of certain events where no airbag or other active restraint deployed, single events that were counted more than once, and reports of invalid or duplicated mileage records. Including these events is inconsistent with our methodology for the Vehicle Safety Report and they will be excluded going forward. These upgrades in data analysis reinforce the positive impact that Autopilot has on vehicle safety. To ensure the accuracy of our reporting, we updated all collision rates historically to account for these upgrades, including the baseline collision rates for the United States based on currently available NHTSA and FHWA data. (Note that for purposes of the baseline collision rates in the United States, an automobile crash is one that involves at least one passenger vehicle, light truck, SUV or van that is 10,000 pounds or less, as classified by available federal data.) The end result is that, when Autopilot is active, the collision rates are even lower than we previously reported.​

​

Here's a comparison of how the Autopilot data compares to the old methodology looking at trailing twelve months to try to reduce seasonal/quarterly biases:
View attachment 893505

Count me skeptical of how they get their data. Anecdotally, my wife was rear ended last year, because of Autopilot, with total miles driven < 50k miles. Either we're in the unluckiest 1% or Tesla doesn't count accidents like ours.

 

[heltok]

Count me skeptical of how they get their data. Anecdotally, my wife was rear ended last year, because of Autopilot, with total miles driven < 50k miles. Either we're in the unluckiest 1% or Tesla doesn't count accidents like ours.

You mean because of lack of autopilot on the person who rear ended you?

Like Tolkien was shot due to covid: