There are probably lots of ill actors around, but startups are mostly privately held and not subject to shorting and other such shenanigans.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
if anything, this is bullish for the market. Powell cant risk another bank run with surprise rate hikes.
If there were ill-actors in this....it would be more logical that they're trying to force Powell and the Fed's hand into pivoting by forcing a collapse...knowing that the Fed won't/can't risk an all out financial crisis. Sacrifice SVB to call Powell's bluff.
There are loads of SPACs on the market you can short easy. Not to mention these banks are publicly traded which are the best short of this week.
Sorry I stopped reading here. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation is PCE and not CPI. Within that jpow has been clear that his focus is core services ex shelter.
This is around ~55% weight and is by definition impacted by wage growth. And wages have been growing feeding into cost of pretty much everything from haircuts to hotel stays.
Yes probability of a 50bps rate high dropped big time after this debacle. Many are pricing in a chance of a pause actually. We just need the feds to step in and give these banks ample liquidity to prevent major run. It's all up to them this weekend.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
all this heady talk about the Fed. Meanwhile someone showed us the workaround for no ultrasonic sensors.
I'd love to be wrong
It's just hard for to see Tesla being able to deliver numbers that exceed expectations enough to counter macro's. I wish they would move Energy up in priority while macro demand for auto's is weak and will likely continue to be weak but maybe there's ramping limitations that prevent them from pivoting as quickly.
I also wish they would be more creative going forward with incentives. Instead of dropping the price more, include 6 months of FSD subscription and do away with the ability to buy FSD outright. FSD is finally getting to a polish level where to me, the value is apparent for anyone using it. Getting FSD moved over to only subscription base makes FSD revenue way more sticky
Which is why the latest jobs data was actually good news. Wage growth slowed and was materially below expectations.
Let's also not forget that a lot of the tech layoffs have NOT actually been factored into these numbers. Take the Microsoft layoffs for instance, most of the employees in the FIRST round of layoffs are just coming up on their actual termination date. There's round 2 and 3.....of which round 3 are still technically employed by Microsoft until May.
This is common amongst most of how the tech field layoffs were structured. Those layoffs will materially impact wage growth as well. These are extremely high paid employees that were laid off that are now taking job with lesser pay. A year ago, anyone in the tech field could be fired or quit and expect a 10-15% salary increase.....now they're taking pay cuts as they have to actually compete with other applicants.
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Might be an ugly weekend+ (at best):
Also, this just got published:
techcrunch.com
Also, this just got published:
How founders are reacting to Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse | TechCrunch
What happened to SVB? The ripple effect of SVB’s downfall is reverberating throughout the tech and startup sectors.
techcrunch.com
Drumheller
Active Member
Just a reminder of how worthless rating agencies are. SVB had a Moody's rating of A three days ago.
At first I thought the guy was sarcastic but it seems like everything will be okay and it's a nothing burger?Might be an ugly weekend+ (at best):
Also, this just got published:
How founders are reacting to Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse | TechCrunch
What happened to SVB? The ripple effect of SVB’s downfall is reverberating throughout the tech and startup sectors.
Well, they must have had a really diverse product portfolio. /s
(Referring to “Importantly, we are looking for a broadening of the company’s product lineup.” Elon Musk dubs Moody’s “irrelevant” after firm stands by TSLA's junk rating)
Maybe...there's still four days of deposits being completely disrupted of $200B in the startup ecosystem. The tweeter is banking that the FDIC covers everything. I'm reading that there's founders/startups in different countries (e.g. India) having no options available outside of Silicon Valley Bank right now too, as an example.
Damn FDIC is not F-ing around. I think the most impressive and smartest move is to quickly, like within hours of seizure they get bids and sell it to another institution so then when the bank re-opens it reopens under a different name. This gives people the impression that it is now backed by a different bank therefore no run is necessary as it's backed by that other institution's assets....even tho FDIC in the background is taking up 80% of the risk from the seizure. This is all brilliant stuff to prevent bank runs.
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At this point the one thing I am hoping is for Elon to not get any ideas to take over SVB and merge it with Twitter.
zoomer0056
Active Member
Instead of bringing a sink he might bring a commode.
Hot damn.. 5 minutes after I post.
That’s why I wrote what I did. Pretty incredible TBH.
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