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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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You are basically saying that your co-worker and your own father trust the advertising more than they trust you!! What a dystopian world!

God, I don’t want Tesla to contribute to what Noam Chomsky calls “Manufacturing consent”.
The point is that non every co-worker and father has a Tesla owner to fix their misconceptions. Eventually if enough people believe the FUD, it WILL hurt future Tesla sales. Tesla needs to preserve the halo image.
 
Meanwhile, Fred is reporting another Model S fire over seas. Tesla needs to investigate the owners and possible financial ties to Tesla's enemies. This sudden spike in fires is suspicious if you ask me.

Tesla typically says:

1) Electric is safer than gas (insert manipulative statistic).
2) No one was harmed in this incident.
3) We design these cars so that in case of fire it is easy to exit the vehicle in time.
4) This is an older car. These problems or problems like these have already been fixed.
5) We take every incident like this seriously and are always improving.

I think Tesla generally gets this right. Conspiracy theory talk backfires. See: Elon and Pravduh.
 
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More good reasons to build the first Model Y line at Fremont: (emphasis mine)

carsonight | 5 hours ago

"No. I am told the Grohmann SR battery machine is producing them at the rate of one every 45 seconds, and that most of what is going to Fremont are SR. I was told for that reason Panasonic is producing cells as fast as Tesla can use them, and that the Tesla side of GF1 is producing batteries sometimes faster than Fremont can use them. I am told if there is any bottleneck now it is Fremont, that GF1 has had to pause for Fremont to catch up.

"The above information is factory floor from both sides of GF1, so take it for what it is worth. The speeds are when everything is working right and will be less when there is any equipment breakdown or Fremont bottleneck. We'll know at the end of the month how accurate any of this is. Musk has said that this could be a record quarter, and I have a hunch he could be right.

"One more thing: with the Grohmann machines in operation, I'm told Tesla currently has a hiring freeze. Panasonic still needs employees desperately, though."​

Cheers!
 
More good reasons to build the first Model Y line at Fremont: (emphasis mine)

carsonight | 5 hours ago

"No. I am told the Grohmann SR battery machine is producing them at the rate of one every 45 seconds, and that most of what is going to Fremont are SR. I was told for that reason Panasonic is producing cells as fast as Tesla can use them, and that the Tesla side of GF1 is producing batteries sometimes faster than Fremont can use them. I am told if there is any bottleneck now it is Fremont, that GF1 has had to pause for Fremont to catch up.

"The above information is factory floor from both sides of GF1, so take it for what it is worth. The speeds are when everything is working right and will be less when there is any equipment breakdown or Fremont bottleneck. We'll know at the end of the month how accurate any of this is. Musk has said that this could be a record quarter, and I have a hunch he could be right.

"One more thing: with the Grohmann machines in operation, I'm told Tesla currently has a hiring freeze. Panasonic still needs employees desperately, though."​

Cheers!

Tesla should definitely build the first model Y line at Fremont. It allows for reuse of employees that have direct experience building the 3. It also allows for potentially replacing a model 3 line devoted to SR+ production (not very profitable) with a model Y LR/P line (highly profitable) for risk management. It's also closest to most of the rest of Tesla's staff and so on.

Fremont is the red keep of Tesla. It's never fallen. no spoilers please.
 
hehe.

I mean: it takes a long time to test the roof because it has to just sit there in the sun for a long time.
Zach - loving your articles. Three ideas for future articles that may spark interest:

1) Is Elon looking to change the home building industry next?
Legwork. Aircon.

2) Elon's Tsunami inbound
Legwork. Peeps need reminding just how many world changing products Elon has coming. If you accept, good luck keeping it readable. Maybe split into multiple articles by year or company.

3) The economics (and charging practicality) of driving a Model 3 for Uber
Could be a game changer if you can find the data / sources. Maybe you initially write an article asking for Uber/Lyft drivers to write to you with their accounts.
 
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Might be some inaccuracies, but 2019 has generally been something like this:

Price cuts, tax expiration - Jan 2nd

Layoffs - Jan 2nd

Price cuts again - Feb 6th

Layoffs again - Feb 8th

Price cuts again, S/X - March 1st

Retail staff compensation cuts, store closings - March 2nd

Layoffs again - April 6th

Actual Q1 results, unexpected $700M Q1 loss - April 24th

Price cuts again, S/X - May 21st

If demand was burgeoning, you staff up for it and increase prices. Not layoff and cut prices. So you can see the reasons for concern about demand.

And this is without getting into Elon shifting the bull case narrative to FSD, autonomy, 1 million Robotaxis next year, appreciating cars, insurance, leasing or the actual delivery numbers, Tesla's own missed guidance and the SP in 2019.

Outside this thread, there no question that Tesla has to show investors that North America demand is still there. I think it is there and there are a lot of new markets to enter. The longterm future is still bright. But 3 sales are not the fire that was expected and there are short term challenges before the FUD is overcome and widespread adoption occurs.
This is a good summary. I thought long as well why Tesla doesn't advertise. They can easily sustain a higher ASP / margin if they are advertising the top end trims. They don't need to fire people and and close stores.

There are easier ways to make money. Also this is short sighted. Let me step into Elon's shoes for a bit.

I want to solve global warming, and want to convert the vast majority of transportation to electric. I cannot do this being a premium brand. To get there, going electric should be an economic no brainier. Something like the Camry and the 3 are priced the same. The fuel and maintenance savings are gravy. At that point, all competition is dead meat.

Now, my company is growing at 50+% every year, and obviously, I see a lot of inefficiencies. If I can wring out all the inefficiencies in Fremont and giga, I can replicate the model everywhere. There's cash in the bank, and there's a crisis media has brewed. Why would I waste a perfectly good crisis. I'll use this to light a fire under my employees and whip them into shape. And when the demand organically builds up, I'll have the most efficient line/ process, I can replicate.

So let the team be on a lean diet. Delay the gratification. Don't advertise and make it easy in the short term. The prize is world domination, and solving climate change.

/Elon
 
Totally disagree with the climate change angle. Tesla needs to be promoted on its own superiority as opposed to some politically charged issue. No way.

Do both. Pitch it as a performance car to car aficionados. Pitch it as clean and green to people who fear the Keeling Curve and the enhanced greenhouse effect. There are probably other angles to attack, such as convenience, comfort, peace, economy. Different people, different priorities and concerns. If some help save our species unwittingly, I’m OK with that.
 
Good argument, but investors will take time to come around for FUD and undertow currents, and that will be an amazing run up. How about this narrative since we're all speculating here.

Tesla is selling everything they can make. But because they're juggling more vehicles, improving processes (and capacity), and upgrading vehicle designs, they are trying to match production to natural demand which is difficult I'm sure. So they have their little firesales and price drops along with some increases along the way as well. But if that balance is off, they need these incentives because inventory is really bad. Meanwhile, they're trying to smooth from the shock of digital demand increase from overseas. I see this as the most complex part of deliveries this year that made them sweat hard. I have trouble believing they have their whole supply chain perfectly aligned, so I'm sure there are times they have to build what they can, battery supply included. All these variables, no wonder. And the evidence is how the "weeks for delivery" on the orders page never made any sense. This issue of people getting vehicles in weeks when there is clear demand elsewhere is sheer chaos.

And the obvious factor were that incentives from the wealthy ended in Q4 (and Q1 is typically soft). Anyone who cared about (and could use) a write-off did so in 2018, including me on the 3. These are your S and X customers and so hi-end sales took a hit in Q1. Hey, good time to re-tool and take the big hit in Q1 on everything else as well.

Somehow we got to 6,000/mo+ (per Bloomberg) from efficiency improvements out of the line. Did you think they could have made more? Then they came out with the Raven to keep pushing the envelope on range and quality. Meanwhile, resources are under attack regarding service and support, so hiring was/is likely all over the map. Are we hearing about all the hiring? No, only cut-backs get leaked, even though thinning as we go is expected here to be nimble and quick. # of Openings are dynamic and in large numbers.
6000 a week?
Sorry, when the capacity starts dropping for unknown reasons, then I'll believe your theory on demand. So just don't buy it, this car is amazing!
 
On fires, I don’t understand what is the misconception. I mean any energy storage will have fire risk. Whether it is hydrocarbon based energy, or electric. The question is which is safer, relatively speaking. Fred in his article says “O I don’t know why it happened hence curious”. Just a FUDster.

Didn’t Fred earn a Roadster 2.0 through his referral code? Anti-Tesla people like him should be excluded from this program.
 
Didn’t Fred earn a Roadster 2.0 through his referral code? Anti-Tesla people like him should be excluded from this program.
Two roadsters. redFay's probably the No.1 reason the referral program was cancelled (it was revived about a month later in a form that doesn't give an unfair advantage to high-volume click-baiting bloggers).
 
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Meanwhile, Fred is reporting another Model S fire over seas. Tesla needs to investigate the owners and possible financial ties to Tesla's enemies. This sudden spike in fires is suspicious if you ask me.
Less than 100km from where I live. Apparently a Dutch Model S of less than a year old, and a supercharger that is also one of the newest in Belgium.
Normally, I’d expect an avalanche of comments (on the original HLN article) like ‘those Teslas should be banned because they catch fire all the time’, but no comments at all for the moment. Also, the article is very factual and doesn’t refer to any other EV fires. Maybe we’ve reached the tipping point where the other car manufacturers can’t push the EV FUD anymore because they want to sell their own EVs.
If there’s any more local news about this fire, I’ll try to summarize it here.