Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Gali goes behind enemy lines to attend a Munro EV breakdown presentation.

Summary:

Gali: "So do you think Tesla is going to make it?"
Munro: "Yes, because everyone else are morons".

 

[Artful Dodger]

Earlier today, @Sancho challenged my contention that short-sellers were primarily behind the manipulations we've been seeing and Sancho suggested that hedge funds and other big sellers of call options were the more likely suspects. After viewing today's trading, where a huge number of in the money put options were ready to expire and they could have provided incentive for shorts to try a heavy push down to maximize their earnings, we didn't see such a push down. Rather, we saw trading that is more in line with the explanation made by Sancho.

Thus, I'll credit Sancho with the win today.

Yeah, I don't think thats what today's action shows. If anything, it just shows that Market Makers (the ones writing the Options) are also the ones doing a lot of the short selling. But there are certainly other shorts, with different agendas.

MMs short selling shows up best in the percentage of non-FINRA daily short selling. When there are big short sales by entities that are exempt from FINRA reporting, then it skews the percentage of volume reported vs total volume traded. Its a fingerprint of market manipulation, but you have to calculate that statistic yourself, its not shown in the report.

I've been tracking it daily since Oct 2018. The report is usually out each day by 6:00 pm Eastern time, but it only shows the last 30 days of trading:

tsla | Volumebot

So basically, you need to look at who's writing options, and determine if they are exempt from FINRA reporting their short sales.

 

[NakedLong]

Nobody thinks of going to GM.com or FCAU.com

They got to Chevrolet.com or Jeep.com etc

Out of interest I visited the other automaker's websites just to give me some idea of how tech-savy each automaker is. I then rated them out of 10 based on how modern/functional/aesthetic I thought they were (I'm a programmer/visual designer).

The results:

Tesla.com 10/10
rivian.com - 9/10
bmw.com - 8/10
Ferrari.com - 8/10
Byd.com 7/10
mazdausa.com - 6/10
astonmartin.com - 6/10
Hyundai.com - 5/10
ford.com - 5/10
honda.com - 5/10
nissanusa.com - 4/10
Toyota.com - 4/10
chevrolet.com - 4/10
Mercedes.com - 4/10
geely.com - 4/10
vw.com - 3/10
audi.com - 3/10
gm.com - 2/10
Jeep.com - 2/10
Renaultusa.com - 2/10
Chrysler.com - 2/10
Suzuki.com - 2/10
fiatusa.com - 1/10

What I found out:

1) It seems like only a few companies (those 8/10 and above) actually have any competence in web design. There are many middle of the pack 4/10 and 5/10 uninspired designs that look straight out of a Wordpress template from 5 years ago.

2) If you want a laugh visit the sites on the bottom of the list.. I snorted at a few of them.

3) Tesla and Rivian you kind of expect to do a good job - I was pleasantly surprised how good BMW's design was, at least for a traditional auto maker.

4) If this translates to things like car interface design and autonomous driving (which I think it does), then most car companies are not going to be able to keep up in the technology arms race... expect many casualties.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Today we closed in the green. Does this mean that shorts who bought puts did lose this time?
I'll take any victory these days.

More importantly, Elon said they are already recycling batteries:
Elon Musk on Twitter
Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[CaliBear1]

Fighting FUD one tweet at a time:

"The view from my favorite (partially)renewable energy charging station. There is so much going on in this shot! Past, meet Future. It's here and it cannot be stopped despite the efforts of the malevolent shorts and legacy industries Tesla is disrupting. Thank you Elon!"

I should add that a few days ago a woman walked up to this station as I was charging and stopped to take a photo of it and my car. We started chatting and her German accent was quite obvious. Our conversation revealed that she's a proud Tesla S owner in Germany and is so excited for Tesla's future in Deutschland. She was very knowledgeable about all things Tesla and disgusted by the German Legacy ICE industry. She was amazed at the number of 3s here in the Bay Area and knows many Germans who cannot wait to get their hands on one. The young people in Germany get it despite the profound importance of the legacy auto industry to the well-being of the German economy. And this prescient new acquaintance of mine was in her late forties/early fifties, so the future is coming to Germany too despite the kicking, screaming, emissions scandals and ubiquitous FUD from the industries being disrupted.

 

[Sean Wagner]

Fixed that. He'll figure it out on his own.

Good one. Recommend you check these related tweets including the Tesla answer:

Brian Self on Twitter

 

[defc0n]

TSLA up today huh? Dear Goldman Sachs:

 

[HG Wells]

I took the time to post correcting some of the FUD in the comments, pointing out that what's being sold in the EU is inventory S+X (incl. 75Ds, and sometimes even 85Ds), that no Ravens have been reported registered anywhere in Europe yet, that nobody has reported a Raven delivery yet, and that reports are that homologation is only due to be completed next week.

The comment posted, but then subsequently disappeared. SA sure likes to maintain its bubble. :Þ

Perhaps if you worded it a little differently they would not have deleted it.

Tesla fails to get Ravens to Europe in timely fashion.
Possible production problems or financial insolvency ?

Senior Editor
Shortsville Times

 

[MarcusMaximus]

What is new is that many gas stations are installing charging stations.

Won’t save many of them, in the long run. With EVs, going to a fueling stop changes from a ~twice-a-month thing to a ~twice-a-year thing. Even with the same number of cars on the road, it’ll be hard to survive the ~92% drop in utilization, not including drop in demand due to fixed dedicated charging spots like Superchargers.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Won’t save many of them, in the long run. With EVs, going to a fueling stop changes from a ~twice-a-month thing to a ~twice-a-year thing. Even with the same number of cars on the road, it’ll be hard to survive the ~92% drop in utilization, not including drop in demand due to fixed dedicated charging spots like Superchargers.

This raises some interesting questions for places like B.C. and Quebec that now have laws in place with a terminal date for ICE vehicles. For BC that’s 2040. So long before then gas stations will feel the pressure. By 2025 EV sales have to be 10 percent of new vehicles as per the law. Here’s the thing. It’s 2019 and this year we are already at 8 percent. It’s happening fast. BC is a tourist Haven. A lot of money comes into the province because of tourism. Lots from Saskatchewan, Alberta, and all over the USA. Many of those will be driving ICE vehicles for years as presently i am not aware of any mandate hastening EV adaption any where else. Alberta and Saskatchewan are oil provinces and are on record as wanting nothing to do with EV’s. Here’s the question. If BCers have little or no need for gas stations will there be a need at some point for the B.C. Goverment to support and subside gas stations just to keep them open for tourists?

Heads up for those who don’t know, if I drive downtown in the summer here every third plate is from Alberta. This is a big thing here. Also lots from the US and Saskatchewan.

Just sayin.

 

[Artful Dodger]

My next door neighbor (buying a Tesla tomorrow) has a VW Vanagan he's restoring. It has a sticker on the back: "Volkswagen: turning owners into mechanics for over 50 years!" -- it's pretty old.

What? That *sugar*'ll buff out!

Cheers!

 

[CaliBear1]

EV's are not going to dominate car sales because of climate change, it will be because they are demonstrably superior.

Even conservatives who don't like change still want nice things. There will be around 10% who see status in keeping the status quo and they will be the dinosaurs of society. In the end, internal combustion fanatics will be like a religious sect and they will apply for protection under the Freedom of Religion clause of the Constitution. Tourists will come from other developed nations to witness their rituals; revving engines, 1/4 mile races (.EV's not allowed, that's blasphemy), they will have their own gas pumps on a drive-up "altar" where the ritual of communion will consist of sect members vehicles receiving the "holy sacrament" (gasoline) from their church's pumps.​

Ha!

Like the mutants worshiping The Bomb in "Beneath the Planet of the Apes."

 

[M3Rider]

OT - Weekend Bender: (spotted on twitter)

Dodge Ram Owner @RamLover69 3 hours ago

Replying to @Tesla

"LMFAO you put the steering wheel on the wrong side! My local Dodge dealer and I are dying laughing"​

Fixed that. He'll figure it out on his own.

Known troll. If you click on profile, you get a warning it's offensive.

 

[mongo]

We will soon find out during the Investor Battery Day. If Maxwell tech can drive battery drivetrain down to below ICE while increasing production by 10-16x, then the conversion will be fast and violent. Most people just wants to get to work safely and cheaply. The majority of car buyers are not looking into how green their car is, they only care about MPG and initial cost. The world we live in is trying to figure out if buying an EV is worth the EV tax(since EVs cost more generally so we need to figure out that break even period). But imagine a world when that tax is no longer there, but actually cost MORE to buy an ICE. Then it's game over.

The removal of the drying ovens due to Maxwell's dry electrode tech reduces the volume of the cell line to 1/16th. To increase production 16x still requires 16x the equipment (but not more floor space)*

*assuming the ovens were not the limiting factor in regards to rate.

 

[KSilver2000]

yes, people will keep cheap ICE for a while because it is mostly paid off. But between buying a 4 year $20k m3 and a new civic, more and more people will buy the EV because it runs much cheaper. This way, even the cheap ICE OEM will feel the pain, given time.

Are you talking about a used model 3 for $20k in four years time? How are you figuring it would be $20k in 4 years? By then, I thought those model 3’s would have appreciated in value according to EM?

 

[Carl Raymond]

I can believe that, I just don't think it's going to be *that* severe. Maybe a drop from 78 million cars per year globally down to, say, 58 million, not to 30 million.

Don’t forget the region by region delays. Stand in one place and the drop off will be dramatic. But globally it won’t seem that sudden, because a place like Australia is half a decade behind Norway on this S curve.

Why would you believe that ICE cars can't do FSD?

It’s the ‘subtract the driver cost effect’. Once you do that you only have cost per km. On that metric EVs are about half the running cost. ICE will not be competitive.

I also anticipate ride hailing apps that ONLY summon electrics. We know that people hate going back to ICE once they have experienced electric drive. Given a choice of apps, I can’t see other apps getting a look in. How embarrassing, to hail a car and put your uptown date into a car with a tailpipe... like serving meat to a vegan.

 

[EVNow]

Won’t save many of them, in the long run. With EVs, going to a fueling stop changes from a ~twice-a-month thing to a ~twice-a-year thing. Even with the same number of cars on the road, it’ll be hard to survive the ~92% drop in utilization, not including drop in demand due to fixed dedicated charging spots like Superchargers.

The real elephant (or ghost !) in the room is Robotaxis. If they become real, the collapse will be swift.

Long time back - when SACD & DVD-Audio were debuting - we thought CDs will be gone soon. Well, they did suffer major erosion, but not because of SACD & DVD-A.

 

[EVNow]

Why would you believe that ICE cars can't do FSD?

Economics, coupled with regulation. Very easy to ban ICE robotaxis, since there are no such things.

 

[ZachShahan]

No. Last time I looked, their gross revenue wasn’t even sufficient to pay the interest on their loans.
But their revenue is growing exponentially, it remains a question if they will achieve critical mass before they run out of investors willing to fund capital raises.

I interviewed Fastned co-founder & director Bart Lubbers a couple of times and he seemed to be quite open about it. My summary (in 2018) of a 2017 estimate: "There were approximately 15,000 fully electric cars in the Netherlands a year ago. Bart Lubbers noted that the company thinks it needs 50,000–100,000 electric cars on the road for Fastned to become profitable. If you expect a doubling every year, that would mean Fastned could reach that important crossover point in 2019."

Can find more info in the video interview:

Fastned — EV Fast Charging Leadership (#CleanTechnica Exclusive) | CleanTechnica

Also see: Fastned's 1st EV Fast-Charging Stations Now Breaking Even | CleanTechnica

And my 2015 interviews: A Fast-Charging Revolution Is Underway In The Netherlands (Original Videos) | CleanTechnica

Full Fastned archives: Fastned Archives | CleanTechnica

 

[jerry33]

If BCers have little or no need for gas stations will there be a need at some point for the B.C. Goverment to support and subside gas stations just to keep them open for tourists?

Even though the Alberta Government isn't supporting EVs, there are still a fair number of them there because Tesla has opened up quite a few SCs at the same time they opened up SCs in BC. So people are voting with their wallets. The ICE demand will continue to go down in Alberta as well. There might be one or two years where there is a revenue hit for BC, but that's going to be about all.