Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

Not quite, they're reporting what happened in terms of car safety recalls and media bias against automakers who don't advertise with a given media outlet. Not exactly the same situation being discussed in this thread, but certainly relevant. You're implying that the findings in that study can be applied to other situations like media vs. Tesla. It might be a likely explanation but we don't know for sure. Some here would prolly argue, nah, we know for sure. Horse, dead, club, etc.

Forgot to reply to this comment of yours from a few weeks ago.

The threshold of evidence of proof of corruption you seem to require related to biased Tesla reporting is very, very high that will almost never be met unless the (purported) perpetrators are willing to publish evidence of their (alleged) crimes.

And yes, in many, I'd say most cases I agree that simple incompetence, bandwagon effects and 'conventional wisdom' are to blame for bad Tesla reporting, and it's probably helpful to de-escalate any knee-jerk responses.

The best kind of evidence of media advertising related corruption we can realistically hope for are the kind of statistical results that these studies arrived at, circumstantial evidence and plain old fashioned logic based on newspaper's and reporters' "financial self interest".

Also note that there's a conscious effort by TSLAQ cult to actively smear both Tesla and the Tesla community, and they also launch organized attacks against reporters who are reporting about Tesla positively, such as the attacks against Pulitzer Prize winner Dan Neil which cased him to delete his Twitter account:

Short Sellers drove WSJ Reviewer Dan Neil to deletion of his Twitter
​

Also, the TSLAQ ringleaders have weaponized social media to magnify their influence well over their real numbers - again because most of them know that what they are running is, in effect, a confidence scheme, or at least they know that it's illegal to bash public companies for profits.

The Tesla community is much larger but also a lot less organized - not the least because their primary motivation is not to fraudulently enrich themselves by spreading false information about a publicly traded company they have shorted.

So the Tesla community is a lot more organic and disorganized - and this is how the TSLAQ shouting can often drown out the Tesla community response.

Here's what's resulting from your trotting out the research you cite. I now plan to talk to Graham Beattie et al and get their thoughts on media vs. Tesla. Graham seems like a particularly interesting professor. So, thanks for that.

You are welcome! Did you get a read of his opinion on this topic, if you can share?

But generally the "who watches the watchers" discussions within journalistic circles are unusually unproductive, especially in the Trump era.

 

[Fact Checking]

Latest TSLA short interest report from Ihor:

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

​

If his report is accurate (which is not a given) and there's low volume trading this week, then there are going to be a record high number of ~46M shorts going into the Q2'19 delivery report.

The number of 169k Robinhood users holding TSLA long (which is an approximation of retail long interest) is also near the historic highs of 170k:

Robintrack

This kind of positioning could magnify "Tesla Q2 production and deliveries report" related volatility via three channels:

• summer trading is historically thinner, so shares available to buy or sell will be seasonally lower,
  
• and the relative surprise factor is higher as well due to the polarized short/long positions, and the polarization is in both directions: for example in May 2018 there were record shorts but not record number of retail longs holding.
• the July 4th week is also a historic week when many Wall Street sources and sinks of liquidity go for a vacation.

If Tesla "misses" then I'd expect a bear raid like in July 2018 which drove TSLA from $364 to $296 within three days, if Tesla robustly exceeds expectations there could be a significant amount of short covering and plenty of new longs as well at these attractive price levels.

So this could be a good opportunity for options spread bets (long strangle, etc.), and I'd be careful with leveraged positions and margin.

Not advice.

 

[RobPet]

Sort of OT:

Lightyear One revealed. Specs compared to a Tesla are less (slower charge, slower acceleration), but the (apparent) incredible efficiency makes up for that (should probably be around 100 Wh/km). OTA updates is nice, too.

1.25 kWp Solar is will give you quite a bit of 'free' range (up to 12 km/h).

Lightyear One

Should watch the Fully Charged episode uploaded yesterday:

For the cheap price of €149.000

 

[acoste]

The CleanTechnica Tesla Myths & FAQ page is fantastic!

A couple of feature requests:

Please make the individual entries easier to link to, to make the browser scroll to a specific entry when clicked.

For example if I want to counter panel gap disinformation in a reply and want to link to "Tesla quality matches or exceeds competitors", currently the link lands at the top of the page, and the car quality entry is way down.

I.e. effective FUD busting requires a collection of deep, fine grained links on various topics that are easy to click to. They are the best counter to the collection of smear attacks and innuendo that trolls are copy & pasting. The audience of a reply to FUD is rarely the troll, but the readers of his comment - and making credible backing information easy to link to is key.

Another possible improvement would be a clear Fact/Myth tagging of topics. Right now it says:

Tesla quality matches or exceeds competitors
Tesla Myth: Tesla has inferior quality versus competitors​

It might be even more effective to word it this way:

Tesla Fact: Tesla quality matches or exceeds competitors
Tesla Myth: Tesla has inferior quality versus competitors​

This could be linked to verbatim, as factual replies to particular disinformation variants. The Fact/Myth contrast and language is easier to quote, especially on Twitter.

Model 3 Scratches All Over And What Tesla's Tech Said

 

[EVMeister]

Model 3 Scratches All Over And What Tesla's Tech Said

And. What's your point? You can easily damage flat black paint by poor washing technique on any car. I know from experience.

 

[Christine69420]

It won’t be a tragedy, but obviously they are not delivering Raven or SR’s to Norway and apparently the rest of Europe.

According to user 123kris they have SR cars in inventory in Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands and Belgium:

Image from 123kris in this thread:

Model 3 SR+ forventet levering?

And as noted earlier Raven S and X are beeing delivered in Norway:
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

 

[Driver Dave]

And. What's your point? You can easily damage flat black paint by poor washing technique on any car. I know from experience.

Seems like the “guy scratches car blames paint” phenomenon.

 

[Fact Checking]

Seems like the “guy scratches car blames paint” phenomenon.

To be fair in this particular case it was possibly winter ice during a harsh Montreal winter.

But, without knowing whether this is legit or not (it very much might be legit), it's funny how freshly registered users and the totality of the TSLAQ cult will complain about Tesla car quality in the final two weeks of absolutely every single quarter.

It's almost as if there was some sort of financial interest attached to convincing people to not buy Tesla cars or to refuse delivery in that particular time period.

 

[sparcs]

Model 3 Scratches All Over And What Tesla's Tech Said

not sure how widespread this is, but at least white is going to be the new base color. These issues should be much less visible considering the number of people that will take the cheapest Simple White option.

 

[Remus]

Sort of OT:

Lightyear One revealed. Specs compared to a Tesla are less (slower charge, slower acceleration), but the (apparent) incredible efficiency makes up for that (should probably be around 100 Wh/km). OTA updates is nice, too.

1.25 kWp Solar is will give you quite a bit of 'free' range (up to 12 km/h).

Lightyear One

Should watch the Fully Charged episode uploaded yesterday:

For the cheap price of €149.000

Yeah when I spend that much money I definitely care a lot about the difference in efficiency to save on electric bills!

 

[Sudre]

Unfortunately scientists and climate activists used this approach for 40 years to try to get people to recognize and respond to the threat of anthropogenic climate change.

I think now they are realizing they might be able to make large sums of money off it. The St Louis sewer districted last election told everyone that there has never been any money for flooding even tho STL has always had flood issues being right in the middle of three rivers. They decided they wanted to add on a fee for non-water permeable surfaces so they would have a flood budget. I would be fine with the idea except they had no carve out for people that collected all their rain water off their roof for watering the yard which I used to do for several year.... not to mention we are in the middle of a major flood and they seem to have money for it. Oh.... did I mention they want to privatize the company.

 

[SPadival]

Sorry, but he's totally wrong, it's definitely 89,657

Troy is going David Tambourino on us.. I am downgrading him by $5

 

[Fact Checking]

Sort of OT:

Lightyear One revealed. Specs compared to a Tesla are less (slower charge, slower acceleration), but the (apparent) incredible efficiency makes up for that (should probably be around 100 Wh/km). OTA updates is nice, too.

1.25 kWp Solar is will give you quite a bit of 'free' range (up to 12 km/h).

Lightyear One

Should watch the Fully Charged episode uploaded yesterday:

For the cheap price of €149.000

So alternatively I could also buy a Model 3 for €49.000, and buy €100.000 worth of 10-year Treasury Bonds with a 2% yield, which would earn me €2.000 per year, enough for 6 MWh of Supercharging per year, which covers ~30,000 km of driving per year?

As a bonus I'd also get the €100.000 paid back whenever I sell the bonds, in addition to driving a nice looking car.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Paint scratch discussions do not belong in this thread. Any more posts on this subject will be removed.

 

[Boomer19]

many news orgs (print, tv, web) are set up in such a way that there’s a lot of layers between the person on the front line, and the viewer reading the finalized content. so it’s understandable that we see many cases of ‘lost in translation’

Structure of a Typical Newspaper/News Agency

 

[RobPet]

So alternatively I could also buy a Model 3 for €49.000, and buy €100.000 worth of 10-year Treasury Bonds with a 2% yield, which would earn me €2.000 per year, enough for 6 MWh of Supercharging per year, which covers ~30,000 km of driving per year?

As a bonus I'd also get the €100.000 paid back whenever I sell the bonds, in addition to driving a nice looking car.

I agree. The price seems ridiculous for what you get. I think you should see the high price as a way to support the company for what they are trying to achieve. Just like Tesla, start with expensive trims to eventually build cheaper models.

Still lots of testing and iterations to go. Don't see a road ready vehicle within 2 years really.

 

[Spacemanspliff]

And as noted earlier Raven S and X are beeing delivered in Norway:
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

Blank model type S/X have started to appear on the Norway registrations over the past 3-4 days. Best guess is those are Ravens.

 

[aubreymcfato]

At least it's just Suisse, can't be huge numbers. SR+ delivered in NO, so EFTA ok and I think Elizabeth S's car is an SR+ and she took delivery, so EU is OK.

Disagree. Switzerland can absorb >1000 cars per month, and SR could make or brreak guidance. Also, I've not seen anr SR in Norway stats, so far.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Blank model type S/X have started to appear on the Norway registrations over the past 3-4 days. Best guess is those are Ravens.

The VIN-numbers of some of those 'blank' Model S and X registrations are lower than the VIN-numbers of some of the non-Raven registrations.

 

[Christine69420]

The VIN-numbers of some of those 'blank' Model S and X registrations are lower than the VIN-numbers of some of the non-Raven registrations.

You could ask some of the guys in this thread about their cars on the Tesla stats page:

Raven - Europe Delivery Dates Or Vin?