Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

I DO, however, assume that they don't understand EVs, don't understand the market, and have illogical personal biases against EVs & Tesla that they can't or won't recognize. How to tackle that is the most important question, imho.

If this were the case, you'd assume that at least some would be positive. It's hard to imagine every editor being negative. I don't think this passes the sniff test.

 

[JRP3]

The Nikola Motor lawsuit is popping up again with this Investopedia "update" nonsense.

 

[Fact Checking]

Oppenheimer continues to expect better than feared Tesla deliveries

Oppenheimer continues to expect better than feared Tesla deliveries TSLA - The Fly

Also:

• "With Tesla set to announce Q2 deliveries mid-next week, Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch notes that the company distributed its internally gathered consensus, which is below FactSet consensus."

Does "the company's internally gathered consenus" refer to Tesla? If yes, which I suppose is the case, then Tesla is expecting fewer than 89k deliveries in Q2. (The answer is "no" as @mongo and others have pointed out: it refers to Oppenheimer.)

So we have the following Q2 global deliveries information so far:

• Troy is expecting 85k,
• Tesla Oppenheimer is expecting 88k or below,
• FactSet consensus is 89k.

This is a downward move of expectations, and all of these are below the 91k target leaked to Fred, which is the "better than Q4'18" threshold.

Explains today's somewhat bearish price action I suspect.

 

[ggr]

Does anyone know why Yahoo Finance is surfacing click-bait BS from March and publishing them as new stories?

Tesla 'On The Verge' of Bankruptcy: Vilas Capital

That's not the only one. This is in the feed as well:
Tesla CEO Musk Appears to Smoke Weed During Interview
It's also updated today in the byline, but it's about the Joe Rogan interview from last year. Nothing in it says that it's old news, it says "broadcast live Thursday night". I think these two articles are worthy of an SEC complaint.

 

[mongo]

Also:

• "With Tesla set to announce Q2 deliveries mid-next week, Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch notes that the company distributed its internally gathered consensus, which is below FactSet consensus."

Does "the company's internally gathered consenus" refer to Tesla? If yes, which I suppose is the case, then Tesla is expecting fewer than 89k deliveries in Q2.

So we have the following Q2 global deliveries information so far:

• Troy is expecting 85k,
• Tesla is expecting 88k or below,
• FactSet consensus is 89k.

This is a downward move of expectations, and all of these are below the 91k target leaked to Fred, which is the "better than Q4'18" threshold.

Explains today's somewhat bearish price action I suspect.

I think it is more likely that that refers to Oppenheimer's internally gathered consensus.
Given that Tesla delivered 50% of car in the last 10 days last quarter, I doubt they would be release numbers 5 days before quarter end. (also don't see why they would release number estimates at all)

 

[EVMeister]

I think it is more likely that that refers to Oppenheimer's internally gathered consensus.
Given that Tesla delivered 50% of car in the last 10 days last quarter, I doubt they would be release numbers 5 days before quarter end. (also don't see why they would release number estimates at all)

That's how I read it as well.

 

[EVNow]

• "With Tesla set to announce Q2 deliveries mid-next week, Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch notes that the company distributed its internally gathered consensus, which is below FactSet consensus."

Does "the company's internally gathered consenus" refer to Tesla? If yes, which I suppose is the case, then Tesla is expecting fewer than 89k deliveries in Q2.

The wording is so confusing. It could be Tesla's internal consensus or Oppenheimer's internal consensus.

"Distributed" - If it means Tesla, did Tesla distribute its consensus ? How come no one else is reporting it ? Is there link to original note from Rusch ?

 

[Fact Checking]

I think it is more likely that that refers to Oppenheimer's internally gathered consensus.
Given that Tesla delivered 50% of car in the last 10 days last quarter, I doubt they would be release numbers 5 days before quarter end. (also don't see why they would release number estimates at all)

That makes more sense - updated my comment, thanks!

Given that Oppenheimer is a bullish on Tesla this is still a downwards move of Q2 expectations.

 

[AlexS]

Do we have updated info on homologation of SR?
I fear it's a big deal, and we won't probably meet guidance if Norway or others won't get their SR. We are talking about thousands of cars.

SR+ are being delivered in EU, but seems these cars are not in Norway yet
Warteraum Model 3 Standard Range Plus • TFF Forum - Tesla Fahrer & Freunde

 

[ZsoZso]

Innocent mistake or manipulation and FUD? Look at the circled link in the pic below. This is today’s news feed in the iOS built in stock app. Click on that link and it takes you to an article dated March 28, 2018 (thank you @Hock1 for clarifying the year was 2018 not 2019 -- even worse!). It never ends!

View attachment 423106

Oh, you got it backwards. The stock app is trying to highlight how inaccurate that prediction was: you can obviously see that 15 months later Tesla is still not bankrupt, so the article / prediction was wrong.

Its highlighting the old FUD, you see

 

[FreqFlyer]

I went to Australia to test out Tesla’s vision of the future

Article from the Verge on Tesla Solar power, and how "boring" it is...................which is a good thing.

 

[EinSV]

Also:

• "With Tesla set to announce Q2 deliveries mid-next week, Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch notes that the company distributed its internally gathered consensus, which is below FactSet consensus."

Does "the company's internally gathered consenus" refer to Tesla? If yes, which I suppose is the case, then Tesla is expecting fewer than 89k deliveries in Q2. (The answer is "no" as @mongo and others have pointed out: it refers to Oppenheimer.)

So we have the following Q2 global deliveries information so far:

• Troy is expecting 85k,
• Tesla Oppenheimer is expecting 88k or below,
• FactSet consensus is 89k.

This is a downward move of expectations, and all of these are below the 91k target leaked to Fred, which is the "better than Q4'18" threshold.

Explains today's somewhat bearish price action I suspect.

A quick clarification: Troy has now updated his estimate to 89,619 Troy Teslike on Twitter

He raised his forecast from 74K in early to mid-May, to 76K (5/23) to 80K (6/9) to 85K (6/16) to 89K on 6/23.

Side note: Troy doesn't seem to understand that Tesla is production constrained so is repeating the same mistake for Q3 as he did earlier in Q2. He initially suggested that Q3 deliveries might drop by as much as 15-20K from Q2, and is now settling on a 78K forecast for Q3 (down 11K from his Q2 forecast). Troy Teslike on Twitter

Watch for that forecast (and similar pessimistic forecasts from analysts and TSLAQ) to follow a similar pattern to Q2, increasing toward the end of Q3. Yes there will likely be a short-term dropoff in US orders with the tax cut phase down, but there are a large number RHD Model 3 in the pipeline (>5K orders already in the UK alone and only ~100-200 delivered in Q2), SR+ has barely been delivered outside the US, Tesla has the option of expanding the limited configuration options now being offered, Raven S/X will be produced for the full quarter, etc.

 

[wipster]

Innocent mistake or manipulation and FUD? Look at the circled link in the pic below. This is today’s news feed in the iOS built in stock app. Click on that link and it takes you to an article dated March 28, 2018 (thank you @Hock1 for clarifying the year was 2018 not 2019 -- even worse!). It never ends!

View attachment 423106

I must say I see really old news in the lower links all the time, even on TMC. Don't know what the algorithm is to determine what is shown, but I don't think it's nefarious.

 

[j0hn]

Musk , or at least his airplane just landed at rotterdam airport. this is the 2nd time in 2 or 3 months he has gone there. 3rd time inside of year.

Something is going on behind the scenes is my guess. Sure Tesla europe HQ is in the netherlands , but why go there twice in such a short timeframe.

Some speculation on my part, there is going to be a climate package designed to adress and stimulate the energy transition , and combat climate change effects. that package is gonna be presented by the dutch goverment later this week, something tesla sure would fit in nice.... like i said , purely speculation on my part.

 

[sixela]

Do we have updated info on homologation of SR?

Europe SR+ bestellingen

Eight people have already reported taking delivery of their SR+ in the Netherlands (you can browse the thread for pictures). Aartselaar just a couple of miles from here is also delivering SR+.

I'm pretty sure that means that a EU-compliant CoC was issued, doesn't it?

I fear

No, no, the trigger idiom is "I'm concerned".

 

[AlexS]

Musk , or at least his airplane just landed at rotterdam airport. this is the 2nd time in 2 or 3 months he has gone there. 3rd time inside of year.

Something is going on behind the scenes is my guess. Sure Tesla europe HQ is in the netherlands , but why go there twice in such a short timeframe.

Some speculation on my part, there is going to be a climate package designed to adress and stimulate the energy transition , and combat climate change effects. that package is gonna be presented by the dutch goverment later this week, something tesla sure would fit in nice.... like i said , purely speculation on my part.

helping out with deliveries in the last week of qtr

 

[Unpilot]

Pre-jinx ...but close green today?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I went to Australia to test out Tesla’s vision of the future

Article from the Verge on Tesla Solar power, and how "boring" it is...................which is a good thing.

“I am often surprised by the discussion among environmental activists of what people should do. It only rarely takes into account what people might want or what might limit their choices.”

THANK YOU

 

[AMN]

Interesting how trading volume has died off over the last several sessions. That would suck if somebody were forced to come up with 46M shares for a random event.

 

[Fact Checking]

Interesting how trading volume has died off over the last several sessions. That would suck if somebody were forced to come up with 46M shares for a random event.

Yeah, Q2 and the summer lull would be the right moment for Elon & friends to pull a rabbit out of the hat with ~$252m+ in GAAP profits, S&P 500 inclusion, which would incidentally also trigger the "short burn of the century":

Elon Musk on Twitter

"Oh and uh short burn of the century comin soon. Flamethrowers should arrive just in time."​

Elon would meet the deadline on Elon Time: summer of 2019 instead of the projected summer of 2018?