Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[neroden]

Seems they are more interested in Volkswagen being a competitor than acknowledging the actual gap in software, battery and performance. I think what they are getting wrong is that they believe there will be this magical catch up mode by the competition when in reality the growing pains that Tesla experienced will be seen from the competition as they move into production.

Tesla’s X factor is obviously Musk. Nobody is putting in the time on this that he is. It’s like that quote from Tom Brady about the competition being able to beat him. He says something along the lines of “they have to give up their life, because I’ve given up mine for football” I think a lot of these companies going electric are going in half assed and are in for a rude awakening. It’s not as simple as throwing money at the problem.

If you’re going to go electric as a consumer then you go with the company that does electricity right and that will be Tesla for some time

The only companies which are really seriously all-in on electric, to my knowledge, are
Tesla
BYD
Xpeng (still in early low-production mode)
Rivian (no factory yet)
Bollinger (no factory yet)
Chery (made some bad decisions to focus on the low end of the market)
some other Chinese startups in worse positions than Xpeng
Possibly BAIC, I'm not sure
Maybe Renault

Of these, Tesla is clearly far, far, far ahead of all the others. Xpeng, whose stated business plan is to copy Tesla, could catch up. BYD might. I don't know enough about BAIC, but it does have government backing so I guess there's a chance. I think due to attitude problems or how far behind they are, nobody else has a chance to catch, though several of the others could become successful electric car companeis.

 

[MP3Mike]

The only companies which are really seriously all-in on electric, to my knowledge, are
Tesla
BYD
Xpeng (still in early low-production mode)
Rivian (no factory yet)
Bollinger (no factory yet)
Chery (made some bad decisions to focus on the low end of the market)
some other Chinese startups in worse positions than Xpeng
Possibly BAIC, I'm not sure
Maybe Renault

Of these, Tesla is clearly far, far, far ahead of all the others. Xpeng, whose stated business plan is to copy Tesla, could catch up. BYD might. I don't know enough about BAIC, but it does have government backing so I guess there's a chance. I think due to attitude problems or how far behind they are, nobody else has a chance to catch, though several of the others could become successful electric car companeis.

What about NIO?

 

[Fred42]

The only companies which are really seriously all-in on electric, to my knowledge, are
Tesla
BYD
Xpeng (still in early low-production mode)
Rivian (no factory yet)
Bollinger (no factory yet)
Chery (made some bad decisions to focus on the low end of the market)
some other Chinese startups in worse positions than Xpeng
Possibly BAIC, I'm not sure
Maybe Renault

Of these, Tesla is clearly far, far, far ahead of all the others. Xpeng, whose stated business plan is to copy Tesla, could catch up. BYD might. I don't know enough about BAIC, but it does have government backing so I guess there's a chance. I think due to attitude problems or how far behind they are, nobody else has a chance to catch, though several of the others could become successful electric car companeis.

Why isn't VW Group on your list?

 

[Zaxxon]

Why isn't VW Group on your list?

He said all-in.

 

[CalX]

I totally agree that they are in these ways: The Tesla Smear | CleanTechnica

However, I think there is too much conspiratorial thinking about journalists and even editors. I think they have been duped, but I don't think they are financially corrupted (in most cases) by advertising* or direct benefits from short sellers. There's a big difference between those possibilities when it comes to how we should respond.

*Edit: I still contend that editors are generally separated from sponsorships/ads in most cases — until someone shows me strong evidence otherwise.

It's very possible that the shorts are feeding articles to the journalists as described by Cramer. The journalists may not realize the inaccuracies and they are mostly interested in timely shocking news that will generate clicks. After a while they might even develop a symbiotic relationship like Russ and Mark Spiegel.

 

[neroden]

What about NIO?

EV startup NIO abandons plan to make its own cars

They are an extremely long shot. They're now stuck contracting with JAC, who is taking the bulk of the money, and despite subcontracting they seem to be having trouble ramping up.

Byton has a better chance, and they're a long shot too.

Xpeng, by contrast, is already running a production line -- albeit another contracted-out one. They've has put out over 10,000 cars, going at a rate faster than Nio despite starting later (IIRC). To me this shows how fast they can move from a standing start. They have their own factory under construction. That's why I included them in the top list. "Copy Tesla" is a good enough attitude that it should give them an advantage.
Xpeng Motors to halt poaching rival staff after employee lawsuits

Obviously BAIC, SAIC/Roewe, JAC, Great Wall, and Geely currently make large numbers of electric cars, so they're serious possibilities, but all of them are still hedging their bets with lots of gas cars and hybrids, and I don't see commitment yet, so I expect them to fall behind. Except maybe BAIC.

 

[kengchang]

Interesting -- they showed us both body lines during the factory tour a few years back (though they went very quickly past the X line compared to the S line).

It appears that during the Raven update they probably closed the original S body line and started making Ses on the X body lines, though I have found *no definitive proof of this* -- it's a combination of educated guesses based on scraps of evidence. It could be wrong. I'd still love to know for sure. But it's interesting that body lines were off the tour as of last October...

More time were spent on the Model 3 line than the S/X general assembly.

 

[neroden]

Why isn't VW Group on your list?

Because while Diess is all-in, I don't think the rest of the company is. Maybe in a few years he'll have "turned around the battleship".

 

[RobStark]

Politically, Musk has described himself as "half Democrat, half Republican" and "I'm somewhere in the middle, socially liberal and fiscally conservative."

So by his own admission he is a fiscal conservative... what does this mean?

It means a Universal Basic Income.

 

[madodel]

He said all-in.

They do have commercials. Isn't that all in?

 

[neroden]

OT

So by his own admission he is a fiscal conservative... what does this mean?

It means different things to different people, but I always mean "I don't like throwing away huge amounts of government money on useless garbage". So I want to slash our nearly-trillion-dollar military budget.

This is, curiously, a very uncommon viewpoint. Most members of Congress and most people in the US seem to be big fans of throwing away huge amounts of government money on useless garbage like $150 million military drones which don't do anything useful to start with and can be shot down easily. I find this perplexing, but that's the country I live in.

Musk may mean no more than this by "fiscal conservative" -- he may oppose useless wasteful government spending. (Which for the federal government is almost entirely in the "military" budget right now.)

 

[Carl Raymond]

Why stay here? There's a great big world out there.

Walk away from a problem. Endeavour to fix a problem.
The latter is best, collectively speaking.

 

[MP3Mike]

What about Xpeng?

Third one is his list...

 

[EVNow]

Politically, Musk has described himself as "half Democrat, half Republican" and "I'm somewhere in the middle, socially liberal and fiscally conservative."

He is a neo-liberal. We use "liberal" in the wrong sense of the term in US. Fiscally conservative = economically liberal.

That is why the left calls itself "progressive", not liberal.

 

[Thekiwi]

FYI:

 

[Remus]

Lets assume Tesla will indeed hit between 90'000 to 92'000 deliveries and reporting a GAAP loss of around US 280$ million.

How will this affect stock price? Positively, neutral or negatively? I do certaintly have no idea.

I don't the immediate price action. But if Tesla can get to cash flow positive, with 6B cash, it would be clear to many shorts that the bankruptcy they have hoped won't happen anytime soon.

Holding long with share only does not cost me anything. shorting has cost. with stock price this low and bankruptcy off the table, I guess many of them would cover.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

FYI:
View attachment 423736

Flagged for being on topic

 

[Artful Dodger]

ATTN: MODS:

Please delete this comment along with the rest of the never-ending "Who's Healthcare?" debate. TIA.

 

[NicoV]

At the end of the day there are just too many people on the planet. Population will likely continue increasing; consumption will increase, esp in developing countries. One of my "dystopian future" solutions is that we will have to replace our biological parts (arms/legs/etc) with robotic ones. Each body part requires a certain kcal to operate, and being biological cannot run on electrical energy; we cannot continue cutting down forests (for veggies or meat). If we can replace biological parts with robotic then we can have same function that runs on electrical/renewable energy. Then we as a species can expand much larger under a given limit of total energy consumption. Plus, we won't have to worry about body parts wearing out or getting diseased. Eventually we'll be all robotics from the neck down. Then we can run on mostly solar.

Biological systems are much more energy efficient than robotic systems, so that idea will move us in the wrong direction. A male human needs 2500 kcalories per day which is 2900 Wh per day, or slightly over 100W. Try making a robot that can do anything a human can do within a power budget of 100W.

 

[Sean Wagner]

Wisconsin to get Tesla dealerships!!!

Tesla provision helps get Wisconsin legislator behind budget — ABC News

One down. The details are interesting and encouraging, quote:

...
Sen. Chris Kapenga, a self-described "gearhead," acknowledged that he asked leadership to include the Tesla dealership language in the budget. But he said his business interests had nothing to do with his vote, calling what he does a hobby that brings him no profit.

"I purchased a handful of Teslas to get parts I need and I'm selling parts I don't need," he said. "It is just what I love to do in my spare time."
...
Current Wisconsin law prohibits automakers from directly operating or controlling a dealership. Kapenga introduced bills in the last two legislative sessions that would have granted Tesla permission but the measures died. ...