Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

Another quarter end race! I’d guess about 5000 cars are at risk for delivery due to new logistics. Australia delivery teams seem understaffed and trying to keep/catch up and the Philadelphia shipment to the . California teams and west coast will probably deliver half the quarters cars in the next 3 weeks and long waits noted in the S delivery thread are finally getting closure. The big question is the production backdrop behind the shortages on the front line. Are they building 7000 3’s a week yet? Elon seems to be letting Jerome run this and team Jerome is more tight lipped. If they really intend to build more then 7000 a week in Q4, the new big machine probably needs to be part of that process, or that GA5 line is going to go up as fast as GA4(or both).
My math for Europe shows a high probability of 27,000 to 29,000 based on the shipments to date. I think a gaffe would be required to fall below 27,000 in Europe and a delivery miracle to go above 29,000.
Australia delivery and customs processing seem to be holding up deliveries. They seem to have about 2000 Model 3’s to deliver and it’s slow going. I’d guess they send out experts from HQ to key opportunities each quarter to speed up the learning curve.
The rest is just getting the ships to Zeebrudge, manage angry Chinese confused about tax on, tax off and explaining how Tesla has been eating tariff costs for imports and normal USA end of quarter rush.
Looking forward to Troy updating to 103,000 end of September!

There is also reports in Australia of a batch of cars on the first ship of 500, being scheduled for delivery after cars on subsequent ships, the issue rumoured to be so 12V batteries that needed replacing..

So Australia delivery teams are flat out for lots of reasons, I'm hedging ways of being able to borrow my old car, just in case delivery doesn't happen... The cars are there .. the problem is getting them delivered.

 

[MP3Mike]

If it is just a few minor tweaks and software, they could do it on a European Performance Raven from inventory,

Are there inventory performance Raven Ss available in Europe?

 

[sparcs]

Science tends to not move the stock price like it should, but I feel like this should be far more significant news:
Tesla battery researcher unveils new cell that could last 1 million miles in 'robot taxis' - Electrek

It depends on how far along this is to getting off the lab bench. Did the research paper indicate how easily scalable this is using existing battery cell lines?

(Many "battery breakthroughs" never even get off the lab bench. They're just published papers that never go anywhere beyond the research phase.)

 

[Todd Burch]

Science tends to not move the stock price like it should, but I feel like this should be far more significant news:
Tesla battery researcher unveils new cell that could last 1 million miles in 'robot taxis' - Electrek

Just look at that graph. 0-100% at 1C, 20°C and 4.3V showing 93%ish capacity at 4,500 cycles! That’s a big deal!

 

[MP3Mike]

But why bother shipping a car half way around the world?!?!? They could just as easily done this on a German Model S. We’ll see.....

Don't all Teslas come from Fremont? So no matter what it would have been shipped half way around the world.

Also, the Tesla engineers are in Fremont not Germany. So you either ship the prepped car or you fly the engineers and parts, if any. And maybe they wanted to test it locally/privately first.

 

[Todd Burch]

It depends on how far along this is to getting off the lab bench. Did the research paper indicate how easily scalable this is using existing battery cell lines?

(Many "battery breakthroughs" never even get off the lab bench. They're just published papers that never go anywhere beyond the research phase.)

This is almost certainly incorporation of Maxwell tech and will be used in the new cell lines that Tesla is building.

Huuuuuge competetive advantage.

 

[sparcs]

This is almost certainly incorporation of Maxwell tech and will be used in the new cell lines that Tesla is building.

Huuuuuge competetive advantage.

Some of the Dahn research was for cells tested over something like three years. So, it's very unlikely this paper has anything to do with Maxwell. Maxwell wasn't part of Tesla until recently.

Haven't read the full paper though so feel free to correct me ...

 

[HG Wells]

It's the new chemistry that matters - which can be put into any cell format.

Pouch cells are I believe preferred during li-ion R&D, because there's a lot of reference data and they are easier to manufacture.

AND much easier to take apart when looking for failure modes.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Science tends to not move the stock price like it should, but I feel like this should be far more significant news:
Tesla battery researcher unveils new cell that could last 1 million miles in 'robot taxis' - Electrek

It's not completely clear, but it seems to me the main new discoveries which are combined to contribute to this state of the art cell cycle life are:

• Single crystal cathodes can be better than polycrystalline cathodes. - 2017 Comparison of Single Crystal and Polycrystalline LiNi0.5Mn0.3Co0.2O2 Positive Electrode Materials for High Voltage Li-Ion Cells
• A Titanium surface coating to the cathode can be beneficial. https://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/acsaem.8b01472?rand=iq0k47ey
• This can provide high performance cells with long cycle life if paired with a carefully optimised choice of electrolyte.

The experiment in this latest paper used single crystal NMC532/artificial graphite with a Ti-based coating pouch cells (240 mAh at 4.3 V) supplied by Li-FUN Technology (Based in China) - with the electrolytes then added by Dahn's team. The artificial graphite used was KaijinAML-400 from Kaijin, China.

I don't think any of these key discoveries are necessarily restricted to the specific NCM cathode or anode or the pouch format used above. Dahn's team has also published papers on how to make single crystal NCA cathodes for example. Synthesis of Single Crystal LiNi0.88Co0.09Al0.03O2 with a Two-Step Lithiation Method

 

[woof]

Tesla patents an electromagnetic windshield wiper

Tesla's patent for a stealthy, electromagnetic wiper is perfect for the new Roadster

If this is production ready would sell the idea to other car makes?

Once patented, other car makers can use it without any license fees. That was part of Tesla's "open source patents" (aka All Our Patents are belong to you).

 

[Todd Burch]

Some of the Dahn research was for cells tested over something like three years. So, it's very unlikely this paper has anything to do with Maxwell. Maxwell wasn't part of Tesla until recently.

Haven't read the full paper though so feel free to correct me ...

Yes but Maxwell announced they were working with an auto manufacturer well before the acquisition.

 

[JRP3]

New Science tends to not move the stock price like it should, but I feel like this should be far more significant news:

Realize these are lower energy density cells than Tesla is currently using in vehicles, and as the paper points out are not appropriate for passenger vehicles, which is what Tesla is currently selling. Semi and Robotaxis could take advantage of this, as could grid storage.

This is almost certainly incorporation of Maxwell tech and will be used in the new cell lines that Tesla is building

This has nothing to do with Maxwell DBE technology.

 

[kengchang]

This is rumoured to be the Model S that Tesla plans to use for the record attempt. U.S. model, seen traveling on the route from Hanau airport to Nürburgring track, and the timing matched the reported shipping timing.

That's definitely a US vehicle with that CA HOV sticker.

 

[Beltsbear]

Once patented, other car makers can use it without any license fees. That was part of Tesla's "open source patents" (aka All Our Patents are belong to you).

Probably, but Tesla can rescind that for patents past a certain date. So they could hold back future patents.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Drive shafts/ CV, cradle, wiring, cooling.
More than 220kW? That is 300hp already. A 300 HP compressor puts out 1325 SCFM @ 100 psi. Rough scaling (ignoring temperature) to a 5,000 psi COPV that is 26.5CFM. If Roadster is 6 feet wide inside, then it can fully replenish a 2 foot diameter tank in under a minute.

If there is spare power at the drive unit to run the compressor, then there is spare power at the battery to drive the compressor.

If their foot is not down, there is spare battery power (at lower speeds there is likely spare power at full accelerator). With a high power drive unit inverter, you can sink power to the compressor too.

An aux motor adds weight and puts you back in the slow refill problem.

It's all a fun design trade off problem, but as to actual design the expert says:

Weekend OT:

LOL! Porsche and Tesla are locked in a war of generational technologies, while TMC is locked in a war of wordz. But this topic is all too juicy, and hey its a Saturday!

Telsa needs better brakes for racing.

For example, the BMW M3 sedan has the equivalent of 1,850 KW brakes (Porsche racing brakes are even better). Tesla can achieve about 1,200 KW of regen by using Roaster's 3 SRPMs. IMHO, detailed below is one way Tesla could use that regen to achieve outstanding braking performance (and unlock some other useful features):

• MOST of the energy recovered by regen braking should be used to compress air (as the battery pack can not accept a 6C recharge rate or 1,200 KW of regen, and almost no regen power at all when the battery is at a high SOC near the start)

• the car will NOT be wired to distribute 1+ megawatt of electrical power on regen (look at the gauge 0 wIres required for just 250 KW supercharging). That power should be transfered mechanically via an accessory compressor tied to the shaft of each of the 3 SRPM motors (or possibly 1 per axle; Semi will have this)
  • the pressure will be managed by a recirculating waste gate between the compressor's inlet and outlet (established tech), not primarily by a clutch
    
  • system pressure will be buffered by a central COPV but the intention is to expend most of the HP air at the nozzles instantly while under braking
  • a smaller separate pump near the COPV could replenish high pressure (HP) air slowly using mains power (or from the bty pack) w/o the car being in motion (ie: sitting in the Pits between laps)
• most of the HP air generated under regen should be used immediately to augment braking, as follows:
  • downward thrust at each corner to increase traction (think anti-lock)
    • works intermittantly like an ABS servo
    • also functions to increase traction/reduce wheelspin under acceleration
  • compressed air blown directly onto the brake rotors to shed heat
  • HP air could even be used to cool the tires as necessary
  • used air can be redirected to increase aero drag/increase braking
    
  • retro thrust from fwd-facing nozzles has a minor effect for the cost; nix
• top speed of the car will not be increased by rocket assist; rather the rear-facing nozzles will be used intermitantly to shed wake turbulence votices to reduce drag:
  • this is similar to the way a salmon's tail allows it to be 104% efficient while swimming upstream
  • perhaps 6x more efficient to use energy stored in HP air to decrease drag than to increase thrust
  • this HP air will be sourced from the COPV exclusively since no regen while accelerating; top speed bursts will be very brief due to supply of HP air
• similarly, deceleration performance can be increased by using HP air to augment air flow votices and thus INCREASE drag at very high speed (think speed brakes)

• finally, rate of rotation while cornering can be controlled via thrusters (think spin control and recovery)

TL;dr Tesla needs better brakes for racing. The SpaceX package could provide rocket assisted brakes. Porsche is known for their superior brakes; they will never see this coming. It's gonna be a gas (but not an ICE)!

Cheers!

 

[dc_h]

Even if they delayed the unveil until January it wouldn't matter. Production for pickup is still likely pretty far out into 2021.

He’s been busy with Starship and will have big Starship update late September. Getting final demo model/s ready for November or December will take a lot of last second work, this is where Elon is perhaps most valuable. I’d guess Rivian is the first vehicle to raise the bar for Tesla. They’re going to want to hit it out of the park. They may have made a couple of late tweaks.

 

[jerry33]

It depends on how far along this is to getting off the lab bench. Did the research paper indicate how easily scalable this is using existing battery cell lines?

(Many "battery breakthroughs" never even get off the lab bench. They're just published papers that never go anywhere beyond the research phase.)

Right. Generally there is a "battery of the week" that will revolutionize... Until it actually goes into production, there's little point in getting excited.

 

[hacer]

Ignore the drawings....

... and everything said in the video.

 

[Mike Smith]

Once patented, other car makers can use it without any license fees. That was part of Tesla's "open source patents" (aka All Our Patents are belong to you).

Unless I'm mistaken, they're not giving away their new patents. They only gave away what they had at that time five years or so ago.

 

[Steve m]

Unless I'm mistaken, they're not giving away their new patents. They only gave away what they had at that time five years or so ago.

I think you are mistaken. Tesla pledged not to go after companies that use their patents as long as they did not go after Tesla for similar reasons. Ever.

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