Yuri_G
Member
550,000 smart summons and only two questionable videos. That's nearly perfect. Seems like you have some homework to do to prove how horrible this feature really is.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
550,000 smart summons and only two questionable videos. That's nearly perfect. Seems like you have some homework to do to prove how horrible this feature really is.
Would you be so gracious as to share your calculations of the 50% profit?
Using grossly optimistic lease residual values to attract lessees with lower monthly payments is great for the lessees but not so much for shareholders.
The piper is paid at the end of the lease term, except the payment shows up in Services & Other rather than Auto Leasing on the Operating Statement. In 2Q19 Services & Other Gross Margin (i.e. NOT Net Margin) was a negative 22.8%.
Some of the detriment also shows up in COGS but there is no visibility of how much relates to use Automotive "Finished Goods" inventory:
"We write-down inventory for any excess or obsolete inventories or when we believe that the net realizable value of inventories is less than the carrying value. During the three and six months ended June 30, 2019, we recorded write-downs of $24.8 million and $89.0 million, respectively,"
Also, while not necessarily lease returns the same phenomenon applies:
The increases in the three and six months ended June 30, 2019 compared to the same periods in the prior year were primarily due to increases in used vehicle sales from increased volumes of trade-in vehicles, partially offset by lower average selling prices for them due to price adjustments we made to our vehicle offerings during the first half of 2019
As a result, along with the estimated variable consideration related to normal future product returns for vehicles sold under the buyback options program, we adjusted our sales return reserve on vehicles previously sold under our buyback options program resulting in a reduction of automotive sales revenues of $64.1 million for the three months ended June 30, 2019.
As a result, along with the estimated variable consideration related to normal future product returns for vehicles sold under the buyback options program, we adjusted our sales return reserve on vehicles previously sold under our buyback options program resulting in a reduction of automotive sales revenues of $64.1 million for the three months ended June 30, 2019.
Yes, there was a lot of calls that S/X would drop significantly (made up for by numbers of 3s) so this was a positive surprise. The fact that Tesla hit 17k S/X is going to be way more impactful to cash flow then just hitting 100k deliveries total. Something it seems has not been properly appreciated investors.
I do not understand why people like to make these idiotic assumptions. None of that can be extracted from my post. I don't get it. What do you gain from this?
Today is one of those days I suspect Elon is deliberately engineering target misses to keep his people motivated, and he really don’t care about TSLA traders.
Only way to work through it, is to keep buying when it drops and don’t gamble, I am bad at either, I usually spend all dry power too soon, and can’t help buying calls, my bad...
Only way to work through it, is to keep buying when it drops and don’t gamble, I am bad at either, I usually spend all dry power too soon, and can’t help buying calls, my bad...
Bullish_Bear
Member
sorry i cannot agree... basic economics tells us, when demand is higher than supply, the price goes up, and now apparently tesla is using all kinds of price reductions and promotions to make sure it uses most of its production capacity (without working overtime though). how could tesla cut price and offer free charging etc when the demand is high enough and the production capacity is the bottleneck?
tesla's business model is to order then build (kind of), and it is very likely to have some orders waiting to be fulfill any time. also, this quarter there was some unexpected tax cut in china, and the sudden surge of orders couldn't be filled immediately (transportation requires almost 20 days from US to china)...it was just one time thing and you can refer it to some region allocation problem but not a shortage of supply.
Lol so you are flat out are saying that Tesla is putting out fraudulent informatio . How else are you disagreeing with Tesla saying order rates are 110,000 per quarter. Good to know that's what your hanging your hat on. Always a good strategy to base your decisions on a company based on the fraud strategy
Bullish_Bear
Member
no offense, just share my thoughts... no doubt elon musk is a genius, but he is also a narcissistic man who always put his ego far far before everything, including the interest of investors, and sometimes truth... however, we are talking about investment not religion, and i dont need the ceo of tesla to be a saint when invest in it... i still believe the opportunity surpasses the risk for tesla, so my money is here with it...
powertoold
Active Member
I'm not a TSLA super bull and I strongly disagree with this bear guy. Tesla is not demand constrained at all. In fact, Tesla is gaining and will gain more organic demand over time. EVs become more and more enticing by the month and year.
To say that Tesla is demand constrained is to say that the tens of billions being invested by other oems right now will go to waste. Tesla makes the best EVs. If Tesla ever has a problem with demand, the industry will implode.
To say that Tesla is demand constrained is to say that the tens of billions being invested by other oems right now will go to waste. Tesla makes the best EVs. If Tesla ever has a problem with demand, the industry will implode.
Where is the significant production increase Jerome was talking about?
It seems like they only managed a 10% increase in Model 3 production
Are you saying a 10% production increase in one quarter in an existing operating factory (with little downtime) is not significant?
Carl Raymond
Active Member
110k orders in a 97k quarter, with production growth of 10% during that quarter.
Strewth. I would call that “priced to bloody perfection”.
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
I expect the China launch to go quite smooth. Two points.
-I have done a few transfers of manufacturing into China and they went amazingly well. The amount of resources applied is incredible and they meet the timelines. They can afford to have more people so what might take a week here gets done in a day or so in China. In the end they may not be as efficient in labor hours/car but they are more efficient in $$/car.
-The model 3 is now a stable design so they will not be dealing with design issues as they ramp production.
Another example of not understanding the Tesla mission and expecting Tesla to behave like a traditional company.
Obvious care bear is obvious
You are behind the times. My understanding is...
Tesla is building a mix of variations of Model 3s. Color, battery size, motors etc.
Tesla is guessing what the mix needs to be for each local market.
Orders are matched to available inventory and used to build then next batch.
Tesla uses discounts to get buyers to modify their order to what is available in the local inventory. Particularily towards the end of a quarter.
To clarify:
Interested buyers were working with advisors to find an inventory model that they liked given sufficient discounts—before orders were placed.
If I’m understanding Bullish_Bear correctly, he’s questioning why Tesla needs to offer free SC for everyone and discounts for buyers willing to pick up an available inventory. If demand far outweighs supply.
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Are you sure it's not a linear trend and production started a month ago?
powertoold
Active Member
Demand fluctuates based on the available options and pricing. Tesla just needs a good mix of options and pricing to satisfy all the different buyers. Some buyers like premium features, others like bare-bones.
The misconception here is that there is "one" demand level, and while everyone is caught up about demand, the more important metric is gross margin. If Tesla can lower prices and still have a high margin, current demand is meaningless, since demand is contingent on pricing.
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