Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobStark]

Frankly Taiwan doesn't care what Emperor Xi designate as FTZ

 

[samppa]

VWAudi Etron & MB EQC are not only close to the 2012 Model S, but better in many ways, hitting a different set of features than Tesla has. Tesla can snap your neck with its launch all the while you hear the screaming ICE engines around you through thin insulation and spill your papers that aren't in a nonexistent door pocket into your footwell causing you to have a fender bender putting your car in the shop for months, but the German models aren't about snapping your neck, aren't about keeping you annoyed at ICE cars, and aren't about letting your affairs go all over. First, the German models have a door pocket, and second, they aren't imposing the outside world onto you, and third, they are comfortable. For now, there may be a minimum of people who are tired of Tesla and want to switch back to Audi and Mercedes, but they do exist. Further, some existing Mercedes and Audi owners will probably like the idea of an EQC, EQS, or Etron, test drive one, and find it to their liking. That is a fair bit better in some ways than the 2012 Model S. Many, in fact.

Granted, the Model 3 is a big step up from the Model S. Tesla is years ahead in many important dimensions.

I think there's enough market share for a lot of the companies. Just we have to get used to Tesla being a big part of that. I for one am looking forward to a used EQS, or maybe used Model Y or used Model X, or maybe a used competent e-van or more truck-like platform. I have even odds which one of the least utilitarian vehicles will meet my liking and budget first, but the utilitarian vehicles I probably need most are least likely to be available soonest. Basically, the short-termers here get really near-sighted and don't realize there's plenty of market share left (like 98% of it).

I gotta say I really like the lack of door pockets. And lack of central console in my pre-fl S. Car stays organised and clean, instead of collecting random junk in those pockets.
But I'm a minimalist in many other ways too.

 

[30seconds]

i straight up do not buy this. If it were true, they'd 1) be delivering primarily Performance models, 2) not pulling demand levers all the time and 3) selling way more S/X cars.

I agree. They co

VWAudi Etron & MB EQC are not only close to the 2012 Model S, but better in many ways, hitting a different set of features than Tesla has. Tesla can snap your neck with its launch all the while you hear the screaming ICE engines around you through thin insulation and spill your papers that aren't in a nonexistent door pocket into your footwell causing you to have a fender bender putting your car in the shop for months, but the German models aren't about snapping your neck, aren't about keeping you annoyed at ICE cars, and aren't about letting your affairs go all over. First, the German models have a door pocket, and second, they aren't imposing the outside world onto you, and third, they are comfortable. For now, there may be a minimum of people who are tired of Tesla and want to switch back to Audi and Mercedes, but they do exist. Further, some existing Mercedes and Audi owners will probably like the idea of an EQC, EQS, or Etron, test drive one, and find it to their liking. That is a fair bit better in some ways than the 2012 Model S. Many, in fact.

Granted, the Model 3 is a big step up from the Model S. Tesla is years ahead in many important dimensions.

I think there's enough market share for a lot of the companies. Just we have to get used to Tesla being a big part of that. I for one am looking forward to a used EQS, or maybe used Model Y or used Model X, or maybe a used competent e-van or more truck-like platform. I have even odds which one of the least utilitarian vehicles will meet my liking and budget first, but the utilitarian vehicles I probably need most are least likely to be available soonest. Basically, the short-termers here get really near-sighted and don't realize there's plenty of market share left (like 98% of it).

Tesla is going after Toyota & VW, not M-B & BMW

 

[Carl Raymond]

In the spirit of navel gazing, what do you think Tesla would need to give up to achieve regular GAAP profitability?

Misleading question. Ask how much more scale up is required. Output from the capacity that has been built but isn’t yet running ought to do it.

 

[copyhacker]

Kodak just called and would like to speak with you. Sears is on hold.

When you're finished talking to them, I have faxes here from Blockbuster, Best Buy, Barnes & Noble, Palm, and RIM as well as mailed letters from a few taxicab companies.

 

[mongo]

Tesla under investigation on claim it throttled batteries to hide fire risk

NHTSA’s Office of Defects Investigation should post another bulletin stating that CNBC is lying - there is not an investigation. There is a petition to start an investigation. They're just evaluation a complaint to see if an investigation is needed.

This lie caused a significant stock movement. The SEC should investigate CNBC.

Not only that, but the title is nonsensical: Software can't hide a fire. If the apparentness/ instances of fires changed, the software mitigated or reduced the fire risk, it did not hide resulting fires.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

When you're finished talking to them, I have faxes here from Blockbuster, Best Buy, Barnes & Noble, Palm, and RIM as well as mailed letters from a few taxicab companies.

In all fairness, Best Buy and Barnes & Noble are still around, albeit less than they once were. Circuit City and Borders would certainly like a word, though.

 

[X Fan]

I've been of the same view. I think they could get things done faster in Poland, cheaper, with a more enthusiastic government. Germany seems to be bending over backwards to not ingratiate themselves to Tesla. Political stability isn't as good as Germany, but it should be "fine".

But, Tesla seems to really want to have it in Germany. I guess we'll see.

Poland or Czech Republic (has major experience in building cars) are my choices.....cheaper work force, adjacent to Germany.

 

[Curt Renz]

FreightWaves - this afternoon: Tesla Semi electric trucks roll into Frito-Lay plant - FreightWaves

 

[elasalle]

Any TSLA bulls on CNBC lately, or only Shorties?

 

[Zero CO2]

I don't think anyone really gets the crazy data point the Taycan is.

Porsche has the ability to make top of the line cars that cost way more than a normal car. Thus their cars perform way beyond a normal car.

So Porsche indeed is getting way more price for their EV, and yet... they couldn't get it to perform way beyond a normal car (in this case the mass produced Tesla) at all. You be kind and say it is equal, but really, it still is behind in many areas. They totally failed.

Doesn't anyone see how game changing this is?

Porsche should be able to crush Tesla, they are the ultra premium car company, they are getting more for their car, yet they can't make it way better.

Porsche is unable to make a way better car than Tesla.

This is a huge data point.

TSLA long.

The only problem is Tesla needs other car companies to succeed for the EV transition to accelerate and costs to come down due to greater volume of EV parts in general ... the lack of success here may actually not be a good thing

fire away!

 

[Prunesquallor]

Somehow those 'traditional' offerings are not appealing to those traditional clients:

US Audi E-Tron sales:

April 253
May 856
June 726
July 678
August 593
September 434

US Jaguar I-Pace sales:

January 210
February 186
March 212
April 237
May 228
June 236
July 213
August 160
September 160

Note: these are cars that qualify for the full $7500 federal credit and, in the case of the Jaguar I-Pace, are heavily discounted. Their sales trajectories are pretty worrisome.

In Europe E-Tron is doing better, with the sale of about 1,500 cars per month, but the I-Pace has been on a downward trajectory for 4 months already, with sales halving in that period to about 750 per month.

Yeah, I’ve been keeping track of these numbers too, and they are disappointing for a couple of reasons.

1) Audi and Jag were potentially big advertisers for EVs (remember Super Bowl commercial?). That could have been good for The Cause. If these EVs are deemed flops, will the companies continue to throw money at the ads?

2) There is an embarrassing lack of choice for potential EV buyers. If, for whatever reason a potential EV buyer does not care for the Model 3, there is literally NO in-class competitor even in the planning stages. A potential buyer could very well give up on EVs for their next purchase. Again,hurts The Cause.

 

[Curt Renz]

Any TSLA bulls on CNBC lately, or only Shorties?

Just like he did this morning, CNBC's Mike Santoli in particular has numerous times hosted interviews in what appear to be a bull-bear debate format, but turn out to be two Tesla bears reinforcing each other with Santoli essentially concluding in agreement. He does not ask his guests to reveal whether they are short Tesla. This is quite different from the way I handled similar situations when I worked in TV financial news.

As long as Tesla does not advertise while its competitors do, apparently CNBC feels that Tesla is fair game for largely negative coverage.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

In fairness, they do seem to have performance of a single lap at a specific track over Tesla’s current fare(or, more broadly, medium-range track performance). They also have higher power charging, although their poor efficiency makes it slower overall.

Do they? A Tesla will charge at a far higher rate than a Taycan and the Model S just crushed their lap time in Germany. Am I misinterpreting this post?

 

[trailhound]

FreightWaves - this afternoon: Tesla Semi electric trucks roll into Frito-Lay plant - FreightWaves

I read that article twice trying to figure out the 15 semi roll into angle

this article spells it out much better
Tesla's Semi, solar and battery storage to help Frito Lay cut emissions at CA plant

trailhound

 

[RobStark]

Actually, the recent trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur removes the 35% import tax on cars of Brazil.

So a European GF4 could serve that market. (The only problem is that while GF3 was built in 9 months, it could take as many years to get GF4 up and running in Germany or France).

Interesting.

Are we sure this trade agreement will be ratified?

Austria rejects EU-Mercosur trade deal over Amazon fires


Ireland, France set to block EU-Mercosur trade deal over Amazon

 

[Pezpunk]

Absolutely. I was only implying concern over climate change isn't a very big motivation for Elon.

uhhhh

Elon Musk is a big fan of climate activist Greta Thunberg

Elon Musk Warns of a Bleak Future if Climate Change Isn't Addressed

'It's the dumbest experiment in human history': Elon Musk rails against fossil fuel use and climate change

Elon Musk outlined the two critical things threatening humanity (spoiler alert, #1 is climate change)

and on and on...

 

[M3Rider]

Not to spread FUD, but wtf is going on with all of the battery degradation posts? Seriously hope Tesla doesn't have to issue a recall, because this issue isn't just for the S/X but also the 3.

Model 3: Battery & Charging

I also see the issue and sent email. After checking your link I see that Tesla already responded to this. They are making changes to calculation/estimate algo:
Tesla appointment for battery health concerns mysteriously disappeared

I agree, let’s stop posting personal anecdotes about batteries degrading and batteries not degrading. Or the thread will get cluttered with 2,000 posts on degraded (or limited) batteries and 798,000 posts on not degraded (or not limited) batteries.

Please note this is not an anecdote, this is something that Tesla addressed directly(link above).

 

[Prunesquallor]

Rick Perry resigning as US Secretary of DOE.
Electrek article:
Energy Secretary Rick Perry won't revive coal after all: He's resigning - Electrek

Too bad. Former Texas Governor ”Good Hair” was an enemy of clean energy, but he was an idiot, so relatively harmless. Seems he was feeling a little uneasy considering the amount of time he spent in Ukraine.

 

[TradingInvest]

The only problem is Tesla needs other car companies to succeed for the EV transition to accelerate and costs to come down due to greater volume of EV parts in general ... the lack of success here may actually not be a good thing

fire away!

Can you think of an EV part that the cost dropped meaningfully because so many companies got into EV business? I seriously want to understand this. My thought is different.

After iPhone was introduced, was it good or bad for Apple if more companies started working on smart phones? If no other companies worked on smart phones, I think in the past decade Apple would have sold 3 times more phones with more profit per phone.

Most parts that Tesla needs are either generic for all cars, or specific for Tesla's design. I don't think VW getting into EVs can help Tesla reduce parts' cost. In stead they bid up material cost and reduce Tesla's margin.

The benefit of other car companies getting into EV is they may stop actively going against EV. Also, if they build charging networks, in the end all EVs might be able to share all the charging networks. The third benefit is reducing patent lawsuits.

Overall, if other companies stay with analog phones (ICE), Tesla would do better and end up with 100 gigafactories. Tesla's EVs are significantly better than ICE vehicles, most people can see the benefits once they get a chance.