Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[generalenthu]

What are tax implications of rolling options in non retirement account? Is it a taxable event or does it just adjust base price of the new call?

I’m sitting on a couple of 400 Jan 21 calls that I’m waiting to at least get to 1 year (in April) for long term capital gains. At what point would holding them become counter productive ?

I have a few of these, which is a decent part of my exposure. Default plan is to take delivery and buy puts to hedge them. That way capital gains can be deferred. There's a temptation to write calls against these, but have avoided that so far. I moved these mentally into the core bucket sometime ago.

FWIW, I wouldn't be thinking of hedging if I wouldn't be taking on a good bit of margin to take delivery.

 

[capster]

I wonder why they are so pessimistic?

Unfortunately, even their most optimistic bull case will fail to get me to billionaire status.

Joining the plutocracy won’t be too bad of a consolation prize, will it?

‘Cause, ya know, TSLA will be going to Pluto and there will someday be Tesla tech going to Pluto.

Hmmm, does this mean I have a plutonic relationship with my Model 3?

 

[nativewolf]

I really like Lilium and I think it will happen, and I will want one, but I don’t think I will take a 500 mile trip in one (because of energy density and wh/mi). EV tunnels will happen because it will be cheaper/faster/more reliable than rail or surface truck and you can charge while moving.

That 500 mile tunnel is going to be billions on billions. I just don't see the appetite. Cool idea but as configured and running today it seems to be a very dense urban area solution. Cool thing is we have this amazing engineering going on and we can sit around and debate which good outcome wins out. What a time to be alive.

 

[JustMe]

Battery day: Is it about Capacitor-battery hybrids? That could be amazing in many ways, and "blow minds" if they can make it work.

I think that’s unlikely based on Elon Musks comments on the matter in the recent Third Row podcast. When asked if Maxwell was acquired for their ultracapacitor tech for energy storage, he said “it’s not necessary”. Because the energy density of Li-ion batteries is sufficient. So Tesla may make some use of ultracapacitors but not as a significant component of the energy storage. I’m prepared to be wrong, tho

 

[dakh]

So far, it looks like the plans for GF3/Shanghai call for only 1 battery workshop. It'll be more efficient to use common bty packs for both 3/Y in China, and save the new tech for the ~$25K "World Car" that's 2+ yrs out. The margins will be tight on that car, and they'll need cheap bty packs in large numbers for it to be a success. Perfect for the new tech!

It'll be enough if the GF3 Bty workshop can build their own 2170 cells. It sounds like that's the plan, since the planned bldg is still under construction, but Tesla says pack assembly has already begun (as of late Q4'19) at GF3.

Cheers!

Sorry this doesn't make sense to me. Tesla is not partnering with anyone and they don't have the tech to make batteries the old way. Makes no sense for them to invest into that when they have the new tech coming up very soon.

 

[nativewolf]

1900' in seven weeks. Now that might include some time to get the tunnels going, drilling vertical shafts. Still that is less than 60' a day and I gave credit for 100'. The cost...I think a gross under exaggeration, the cost of a 1 mile project in Las Vegas is over $50million. Say they cut the costs by 75% as they gain experience and scale that it still just a dense urban area use case and even then not for old bankrupt cities.

 

[AudubonB]

@dww12 Oh and I agree with you on busses. Seems to me self driving taxis will kill this business. Will it kill school buses? Who knows, maybe. For rural areas it would surely be a possible savings...I'll have to look at these numbers.

Self-drivings never will keep Johnny from cutting off Susie's pigtail. Downvote!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Isn't there a Boring forum/thread?

Elon's not gonna do any kind of nationwide boring rollout. This is a trial run for boring habitats on Mars. Period. They'll do whatever number of projects get them ready for that.

 

[Unpilot]

Hmm... I almost want to invite you to my island for a beer now.

Accepted....I'l bring a ton of friends...and my dog...we will stay for a long time.

 

[Foghat]

I think that’s unlikely based on Elon Musks comments on the matter in the recent Third Row podcast. When asked if Maxwell was acquired for their ultracapacitor tech for energy storage, he said “it’s not necessary”. Because the energy density of Li-ion batteries is sufficient. So Tesla may make some use of ultracapacitors but not as a significant component of the energy storage. I’m prepared to be wrong, tho

I think whatever he might tell us, just the idea of being about to produce 2000 gwhs potentially is mind exploding.

I’ve said this before but it needs repeating: this is geopolitical level changing kind of stuff Tesla is moving toward. They are doing things that actually may really make fossil fuel value drop dramatically.

Those countries that are reliant on them for national revenue will suffer greatly in the rapidly approaching future. Strategic national interests will shift, with military objectives shifting along with it.

This is not just the output that is spectacular, but the invention of the industrial “factory” that is going to pump this product out. Elon has made it clear his factories will become eventually primarily run on solar+battery, now imagine that globally. Homes, business, industrial parks... all solar+battery as well as networked with other solar+battery networks with instantaneous demand response. Now add electric transport(first cars, trucks, and semis) including farming equipment, water pumps, etc... and you have a world economy unrecognizable from today. What some call “third world countries” could potentially leap frog currently industrialized ones in this new infrastructure utilization and effective economic development from it.

It’s mind boggling to game these scenarios, but at the pace Tesla is running at especially if they are talking about 2000 gwhs already, this reality will plow its way over the old economy before anyone might realize it’s happening.

 

[Hock1]

I think that’s unlikely based on Elon Musks comments on the matter in the recent Third Row podcast. When asked if Maxwell was acquired for their ultracapacitor tech for energy storage, he said “it’s not necessary”. Because the energy density of Li-ion batteries is sufficient. So Tesla may make some use of ultracapacitors but not as a significant component of the energy storage. I’m prepared to be wrong, tho

In 2015, I took a position in Maxwell on the theory that ultra capacitors would somehow be useful in BEVs. Specifically, I was hoping that something would develop with Tesla. (As an aside---after 4 years of holding, I actually lost about 20% on the merger). In late 2017 or early 2018 (can't remember), I had a fairly lengthy conversation with Franz Fink, the then-CEO. He was very excited about the Dry Electrode tech they were developing. He told me they were targeting 2023 for completing the path they were on and hoped to secure a partner in the 2019 timeframe. He said that, in addition to substantially reducing the manufacturing cost of building cells, this tech would improve battery range between 20-25%. Looking back now, it appears Tesla has been working with them for a while. Now with Elon involved, I wouldn't be surprised if the 2023 date is moved up significantly (like to April, maybe) and range improvement is more than 20-25%. JMO

 

[Krugerrand]

Accepted....I'l bring a ton of friends...and my dog...we will stay for a long time.

That right there is why I said ‘almost’.

*pushes summit button on Amazon order for case of arsenic*

 

[Cosmacelf]

Battery day: Is it about Capacitor-battery hybrids? That could be amazing in many ways, and "blow minds" if they can make it work.

No. Elon consistently shoots down super cap ideas. When will people believe him?

 

[Vad42]

I have a few of these, which is a decent part of my exposure. Default plan is to take delivery and buy puts to hedge them. That way capital gains can be deferred. There's a temptation to write calls against these, but have avoided that so far. I moved these mentally into the core bucket sometime ago.

FWIW, I wouldn't be thinking of hedging if I wouldn't be taking on a good bit of margin to take delivery.

That went over my head. I haven’t got beyond buying the calls and then selling them to close later. At this point with 600% returns on these I was planning to use them as play money. May not be the best strategy but I’m trying to keep it simple.

 

[adiggs]

I think whatever he might tell us, just the idea of being about to produce 2000 gwhs potentially is mind exploding.

I’ve said this before but it needs repeating: this is geopolitical level changing kind of stuff Tesla is moving toward. They are doing things that actually may really make fossil fuel value drop dramatically.

Those countries that are reliant on them for national revenue will suffer greatly in the rapidly approaching future. Strategic national interests will shift, with military objectives shifting along with it.

This is not just the output that is spectacular, but the invention of the industrial “factory” that is going to pump this product out. Elon has made it clear his factories will become eventually primarily run on solar+battery, now imagine that globally. Homes, business, industrial parks... all solar+battery as well as networked with other solar+battery networks with instantaneous demand response. Now add electric transport(first cars, trucks, and semis) including farming equipment, water pumps, etc... and you have a world economy unrecognizable from today. What some call “third world countries” could potentially leap frog currently industrialized ones in this new infrastructure utilization and effective economic development from it.

It’s mind boggling to game these scenarios, but at the pace Tesla is running at especially if they are talking about 2000 gwhs already, this reality will plow its way over the old economy before anyone might realize it’s happening.

Here's an article from reneweconomy about this dynamic going on in Australia:
Fortescue to add 150MW solar and a big battery to Pilbara iron ore mines | RenewEconomy

In this case, it's iron ore mines that are shifting from running on diesel generators for their electricity, to solar/wind + batteries. There is a growing awareness of this dynamic in Australia - I think you'd enjoy following along

(And stuff like this is getting posted most frequently in the Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla thread)

 

[hobbes]

Battery day: Is it about Capacitor-battery hybrids? That could be amazing in many ways, and "blow minds" if they can make it work.

Listen to the Third Row Tesla podcast interview with Elon, he says supercapacitors are not needed. Will be about Maxwell dry cathode technology mostly IMHO, he says that is important there.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Here's an article from reneweconomy about this dynamic going on in Australia:
Fortescue to add 150MW solar and a big battery to Pilbara iron ore mines | RenewEconomy

In this case, it's iron ore mines that are shifting from running on diesel generators for their electricity, to solar/wind + batteries. There is a growing awareness of this dynamic in Australia - I think you'd enjoy following along

(And stuff like this is getting posted most frequently in the Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla thread)

Apart from anything else, this makes economic sense. The solar industry just had to make this relatively easy for mines to do. Glad to see it happening.

 

[PeterJA]

So far, it looks like the plans for GF3/Shanghai call for only 1 battery workshop. It'll be more efficient to use common bty packs for both 3/Y in China, and save the new tech for the ~$25K "World Car" that's 2+ yrs out. The margins will be tight on that car, and they'll need cheap bty packs in large numbers for it to be a success. Perfect for the new tech!

It'll be enough if the GF3 Bty workshop can build their own 2170 cells. It sounds like that's the plan, since the planned bldg is still under construction, but Tesla says pack assembly has already begun (as of late Q4'19) at GF3.

Cheers!

Sorry this doesn't make sense to me. Tesla is not partnering with anyone and they don't have the tech to make batteries the old way. Makes no sense for them to invest into that when they have the new tech coming up very soon.

Considering the pace of Chinese factory construction, the cell workshop at GigaShanghai should be finished by April. So Tesla will be able to announce at Battery Day that all cars in production now have new better batteries... if that is Tesla's plan.

 

[sparcs]

I hope they do a stock split. I cannot buy fractional shares in my Vanguard IRA and I am trying to keep all my Tesla stock in retirement accounts. I am sure Elon will be ok with doing a split to help retail investors... someone tweet him.

Vanguard has matched free trading for stocks that everyone else is doing. Wouldn't you think they will eventually do fractional shares?

It seems like everyone is slowly moving in that direction. Fidelity just did. Vanguard next?

 

[CorneliusXX]

I don't think we should get that antsy about it.

You say that, but it still bugs me.