Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lklundin]

This outcome was already priced in after Super Tuesday I'm afraid, and the Michigan polls were predicting Sanders a bleak future as well. It's "surprise" that moves markets.

Meanwhile most Asian markets are deep red, US futures are down sharply, and Trump is too personally wounded to entertain even the illusion to negotiate with Democrats over stimulus measures:

Trump too personally wounded by Pelosi to negotiate with her on coronavirus stimulus deal​

Trump's solution is to ... bail out oil billionaires (yes, really):

Trump May Bail Out His Billionaire Oil-Industry Pals, the True Coronavirus Victims​

Just in case anyone is wondering what the policy influence of the fossil energy industry is in the U.S., versus renewables:

Tuesday night owls: Dirty energy got 12 times as many meetings at Interior Dept. as renewables did

"Executives from the oil, gas, electricity, coal and mining industries held 12 times as many meetings with the U.S. Department of the Interior’s top two officials over about two years as with conservation and renewable energy interests, a new report by Public Citizen and Documented Investigations finds."​

I'm almost speechless. While China and most of Asia is handling it well, this crisis is escalating faster in the U.S. than I thought, in a weird way that superimposes articles from "The Onion" with scenes from "28 Days Later"...

Buckle up, not advice.

While it has been argued that Tesla's start of production in totalitarian China was risky (wrt. eg. nationalization of assets incl. IP), it certainly reduces risk with respect to the at times unpredictable US polices. Looking very much forward to also having GF4 in the EU.

 

[lklundin]

As I suspected would occur again today on this 2nd day with the "Uptick Rule" in effect, an significantly large amount of naked short selling occurred.

FINRA reported "Short Exempt Volume" was 6.59% of "Short Volume", a.k.a. naked short selling. Here is a chart showing recent history the FINRA short selling reports:

View attachment 520497

Notice that the volume of naked short selling today reached the 142nd Percentile. To get a feeling for how rare this should be (if it were to have occurred only by chance), we'd expect this deviation from the averages only once in 142 trading sessions.

This is the 4th time it has happened in the last 12 sessions. This is not happening by chance. One or more parties are taking advantage of their status as Market Makers to circumvent the "Uptick Rule", and conduct large volumes of naked short selling, likely to advantage their own proprietary trading positions. This is illegal.

Only Market Makers have this priviledge, but it is illegal to use it for anything except legitimate market making. MMs are barred specifically from using their "Short selling exemption" to support their own proprietary trading. The big drop that happened immediately at the Open on Tue, Mar 10, 2020 smacks of naked short selling by MMs. TSLA followed macros (NASDAQ-100) for the entire rest of the session, but the loss relative to the rest of the market was made to stick throughout the day.

IMHO, this is illegal market manipulation by certain unethical Market Makers, whose conduct should be investigated.

#SEC #DOYOURJOB

I greatly value and respect the analysis you are doing. While TMC is a great place to share information and bounce ideas around, it is not the most visible on the Internet.

As such I think you could get more attention to the very troubling data you are presenting, if you would also post in on e.g. Twitter where Tesla-related information gets a lot of attention - also from media free of prejudice against Tesla. On Twitter there is also a direct handle to the SEC...

Regardless of what you do with this suggestion, I thank you for your efforts.

 

[InDaClub]

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

While it has been argued that Tesla's start of production in totalitarian China was risky (wrt. eg. nationalization of assets incl. IP), it certainly reduces risk with respect to the at times unpredictable US polices. Looking very much forward to also having GF4 in the EU.

Honest question because I don't know but I'm getting old and I don't recall ever seeing any news about China nationalizing foreign companies. When was the last time they did this to a western company? I mean I'm sure they are stealing IP but actually confiscating factories?

 

[Runarbt]

Ummm, those flyers were left on tesla owner's vehicles. It very much was targeted at tesla owners. That's what makes their marketing campaign so bone-headedly funny. There are dumb people everywhere!

But they do have a valid point.. you can have to much fun. Why have fun, when you can have a Lexus? :-D

 

[Artful Dodger]

I greatly value and respect the analysis you are doing. While TMC is a great place to share information and bounce ideas around, it is not the most visible on the Internet.

As such I think you could get more attention to the very troubling data you are presenting, if you would also post in on e.g. Twitter where Tesla-related information gets a lot of attention - also from media free of prejudice against Tesla. On Twitter there is also a direct handle to the SEC...

Regardless of what you do with this suggestion, I thank you for your efforts.

Lol, I'm under no illusion that I'm doing anything more than pissing into the wind with these reports. The "Madoff Rule" is there for a reason: The richest, most dishonest brokers on Wall St. have rigged the system in their favor, and routinely take advantage of their position of privilege to defraud small investors. I do what I can to make folks aware of whats happening, to help level the 'information battlefield'.

I own no other equities than TSLA. I participate here in order to support Tesla's mission to accellerate the adoption of renewable energy. I spent over 6 years at the Arctic Sea Ice Forum (and the blog before that), in an effort to raise awareness of IMHO the biggest looming threat to Earth's equable climate: the albedo flip at the N. pole if we lose the Summer sea ice cover in the Arctic ocean.

I have thousand of posts there, and even more hours. At some point it becomes obvious that paid climate deniers and internet trolls will be able to delay substantial climate action indefinately. But delay means the inertia in the climate system, together with the albedo flip, have us headed on a one-way trip to hell: +6C by 2100

In 2018, I decided to reallocate my effort behind the only path forward I can see to having a positive effect on the evolution of our climate. That is a publicly trading transnational company with a strong ethos, great leadership, and the best technology: Tesla.

So I invested about 3% of my net worth in TSLA, and started participating in EV blogs. After realizing the shortcomings of some of the popular blogs like Neven's ASI Blog, Climate Progress, Electrick, Hot Topics NZ, I found myself casting about for a venue free of the worst aspects of specious moderation that those sites can fall prey to (mostly when they put their self-interest and personal pride above scientific investigation).

Now I spend my time here, in the hope that Tesla succeeds and to help fend off the worst media smear campaign in the history of American business. And I think we're winning. There is almost nothing that the Media, short-sellers, or their lackies in the SEC, EPA, or any other 3-letter-agency in the US can do to prevent Tesla from acheiving its mission.

Now, even a looming recession looks like opportunity for Tesla. Their technolgy is simply the best available. You no longer need to be a 'greenie' to love Tesla products. Anybody that has to balance their own checkbook can see the appeal of their energy and transportation products.

Even better, Elon has inspired hope in the next generation. How can we not support that?

Cheers!

 

[Hock1]

Urban Dictionary: dcb

Dead Cat Bounce.

 

[jhm]

OK ok. I've seen plenty of entertaining slants on this. But this will be an extremely effective ad to the two recognized target consumer groups. And both of those are in the majority as to one attribute. They BOTH never drove a Tesla.
The one is lexus owners. It reinforce their choice to drive a Lexus by dismissing the upstart. And the other group is those that have neither driven a tesla or a lexus but are going to buy one or the other.
It is NOT an ad designed to influence the tesla owner.

That could be. The point made in the electrek article was that actual Tesla drivers had been targeted for this message. But it could be that this message would be more effective with non-Tesla owners who take some perverse pleasure in mocking those who drive Teslas. That would be a sort of Trumpian approach.

 

[Unpilot]

You no longer need to be a 'greenie' to love Tesla products.

This IMHO is why the legacy car maker's are toast.
Next is legacy power producer's. While some people can see the destruction as it slowly play's out.......The almighty dollar is what it takes for mass change.

Now that Tesla is churning out the cash it is as a wise man said "game set and match"

 

[SO16]

Put it in Ohio please!!!!

Michigan!

Twitter

 

[Highway2Heel]

The Big Orange One’s tweet about gasoline-powered cars? Do we have a face palm emoji in here??

 

[Highway2Heel]

Well he is making music now days too...

Obviously, I would love this. Nice boost to my hometown that was ravaged by tornadoes last week...

 

[jerry33]

It's called the power of negotiation and the possibility of a GF in the state would provide a huge amount of leverage in allowing the Tesla model of car sales within the state. Would also be a bit ironic in a state known for it's ties to the petroleum industry....

Thing is that he was in Austin recently talking to the legislators. If there was any chance of a deal, he'd be announcing GF5 in Texas already. (Though I suppose he could be waiting until the Q1 results--we can always hope). Remember, some of the legislators are dealership owners, and the dealer association makes a lot of campaign contributions. My unfortunate take is that campaign contributions trump jobs.

 

[Sudre]

The Central States are typically considered to consist of North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Wisconsin, and Illinois.

Most companies that try to build in MO are not offered incentives by the state because the state government is working hard against the cities that benefit from the deal. I highly doubt Missouri will be on the list. Plus yearly the state legislature tries to ban Tesla sales.

 

[mongo]

Logistically, central population wise makes more sense than central geographicly to minimize the in transit time of the Ys. Fremont is badly positioned for dual plant sourcing. If there is only one Cybertruck plant, then that pulls it more to geographic center.
Closer to the coast reduces material movement costs. Then balance that against workforce and cost of living. Texas fits well.

Population: List of states and territories of the United States by population - Wikipedia

Density: List of states and territories of the United States by population density - Wikipedia

 

[Prunesquallor]

Thing is that he was in Austin recently talking to the legislators. If there was any chance of a deal, he'd be announcing GF5 in Texas already. (Though I suppose he could be waiting until the Q1 results--we can always hope). Remember, some of the legislators are dealership owners, and the dealer association makes a lot of campaign contributions. My unfortunate take is that campaign contributions trump jobs.

I fear you are right, but there are ways. Just like RVs, EVs could be legislated as “not cars” keeping the existing laws for ICE cars and trucks (similar to Berkshire-Hathaway's “apples and oranges” amendment).

 

[lklundin]

Unconfirmed reports in China of LG Chem going to deliver 10-13 GWh (annually?) NMC811 to Tesla:

Moneyball on Twitter

If true, then the competition will have an even harder time securing cell supply, with Tesla having also CATL and Panasonic + own production as supply.

 

[ReflexFunds]

@DKurac
"LG Chem, Tesla GF3 agree on 10-13 GWh #NMC811 supply based on initial agreement, #China media reports without citing sources. LG Chem has not yet commented on the news. Earlier reports showed #CATL to supply Tesla with #LFP for 40% of GF3 1st phase capacity in 2020."

If LG cells will all be for LR Model 3 this is enough for 125k to 160k annual production. If CATL supplies 40% and all for SR+ they can support 120-155k annual production. This lines up with recent reports that Tesla will upgrade to 260k MIC Model 3 capacity in June/July 2020.

 

[X Fan]

tighten your seat belts.....going to be another bumpy day. DJ down 740 pre open.

 

[ggies07]

@DKurac
"LG Chem, Tesla GF3 agree on 10-13 GWh #NMC811 supply based on initial agreement, #China media reports without citing sources. LG Chem has not yet commented on the news. Earlier reports showed #CATL to supply Tesla with #LFP for 40% of GF3 1st phase capacity in 2020."

If LG cells will all be for LR Model 3 this is enough for 125k to 160k annual production. If CATL supplies 40% and all for SR+ they can support 120-155k annual production. This lines up with recent reports that Tesla will upgrade to 260k MIC Model 3 capacity in June/July 2020.

BUT WHEN IS BATTERY DAY!?! C'MON Elon....let us know.