Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lklundin]

By now that's literally universally true,
≡lisaViggo on Twitter

 

[mact3333]

I see there Naz crawling back to 7300 level but magically some corona news will come right about then and if its me I will be very cautious as selling likely to resume....jmho.

This will not be a V shaped bounce back.

When mkt's sell off 15-20% it takes 6-12 months to get back to old highs...when mkt's plunge 35-60%, it takes 6-8 years to get back to all time highs...think about that...this will be the latter I am afraid...but that doesn't matter in the long run....have faith and save powder for the true bottom ....you can double or triple your money in 1-3 years from the bottom...just know mkt's love fibonacci retracement levels.

In 2008, The Fed's balance sheet was 800B and went to 4T...this time we are starting with a fed balance sheet near 4T and by the time this is over, it will be 10T minimum I am guessing....money supply will expand...when we recover I am afraid rent will be going up some more, but so will equities.

 

[jerry33]

Futures up. Fremont given "essential business" exemption to continue operating. Model Y launched. Giga Shanghai expanding. Giga Berlin construction continuing. Deliveries continuing worldwide. TSLA down.

Makes perfect sense . I'm not selling

Someone has to wind the spring. We should really thank them.

 

[EV Promoter]

B In the short term we might see some sort of rally when the Italian infection count has a first or second derivative go positive,

You forget that for being a meaningful consideration, US should adopt the extremely strict italian measures, that has been well accepted by the population after a minor resistance. I suggest everybody is playing with the COVID charts, to get detailed informations about which measures has been implemented. Including a progressive shutting down of most industries and workplaces in agreement with unions.

To make projection without this problem in mind, it's totally useless.
Just right now some EU country, with a totally fake number of cases, is going in our direction.
US, i doubt will never get close, but i hope for you and my Tesla stocks.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Do the people who engage in naked short selling have 13 days to cover? With the amount of short selling they have done this week I wonder if the spikes we are seeing intraday are indicative of covering. Or they haven't covered yet and are we set up for another massive SP increase around the time Q1 deliveries come out?

IMHO, naked shorting and FUD/fear mongering/panic sowing are all intertwined. MMs use fear in an attempt to get little birds to drop their catch, the same way Seagulls steal the catch from a Puffin.

think we will see at least over 90K deliveries for this quarter. Guidance for Q2 will likely depend on China demand and ramp up. Dave thinks Tesla can still get to the 500K deliveries for 2020. Heck even if we guide for 450K deliveries we will go back to pre-covid19 levels in no time.

Yes, a good deliveries Report will be epic defiance.

Cheers!

 

[Fact Checking]

S&P Dow Jones postpones quarterly rebalancing until markets settle

Thoughts on how this might ..or might not effect Tesla?

The earliest S&P 500 rebalancing with TSLA inclusion would be June - by which time the current turbulence should be over IMO.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I'd love to see 500k deliveries this year, but would be happy with 450k. In fact I'd be happy with 360k, as I believe by the end of 2020, it will be BLINDINGLY obvious that every other car company is in retreat and collapse and panic, and Tesla will still be growing. Thats not going to change any time soon.

 

[Fact Checking]

True. But Republicans have been good in the past at blaming Dems for killing Americans and supporting non American lives. They will turn this in every way they can and I’m not sure the electorate is smart enough to not fall into that trap.

They'll continue to do this regardless of what the Democrats do, but one thing is near certain: overwhelmingly the governing party gets blamed for recessions. Regardless of how good of a blame-game they are practicing.

If there's a recession in November, Trump and Republicans IMO are facing a big electoral defeat, maybe even losing the Senate, assuming Putin doesn't gift them with some big October Surprise.

I.e. I'm not nearly as convinced as the markets that a "big" U.S. stimulus package is incoming.

 

[ggr]

Mod: Have you noticed that there is now a FAQ thread? Everyone please take a moment to read the relevant parts about decorum, behavior, and relevance. It isn't very long. --ggr.
FAQ: TSLA Investor Discussions

 

[tinm]

Disagree. Elon is a pilot, as am I. Pilots are trained not to panic. Extreme but considered (or sometimes automatic) reactions are fine, but panic is not. In all these discussions, it seems to me that the people who are against Elon's statements are implicitly assuming that actions like limiting all gatherings, closing bars, etc. are panic. They aren't, they are just extreme (but thought out) measures. Re-read everything he's written but taking the literal meaning of "panic" without assuming that he means "appropriate, even if draconian, measures".

Disagree with your disagree. I could care less if you or Musk are a pilot or an astronaut or a brain surgeon or Buckaroo Banzai himself. Plus I’m not the one using the word “panic”: I’ve never said that word or thought it in any of my recent posts on TMC. I don’t particularly care what Musk tweets; that’s his opinion. I care what he and Tesla do. And in this instance I simply think Musk is arrogantly willing to take far more risks with Tesla’s employees and their families/roommates/others’ lives, than he is with, say, SpaceX’s rocket missions, which get scrubbed at the slightest hardware hiccup or puff of wind.

Time will tell if there are consequences (for which Musk might be held accountable) to this latest level of risk-taking. Maybe there won’t be. Maybe there will. We’ll see.

 

[Krugerrand]

Let's start a "who has lost the most" paper loss thread....I'm over a cool million down.

Lightweight. And you thought you had a chance of getting on my island. So disappointing.

You’re going to have to buy a lot more shares, Buddy. Let me look — yup, sale going on.

 

[sparcs]

GREEN

that's what i get for being so indecisive

 

[Fobble]

Bye bye shorts and puts, at least for now

 

[gene]

Very small data point, here in Santa Barbara, CA, a friend of mine received his email from Tesla this to upgrade his CPU to HW3. So at least service is not winding down.

 

[LJS22]

I'd love to see 500k deliveries this year, but would be happy with 450k. In fact I'd be happy with 360k, as I believe by the end of 2020, it will be BLINDINGLY obvious that every other car company is in retreat and collapse and panic, and Tesla will still be growing. Thats not going to change any time soon.

One of the best cars this year is likely getting decimated by this timing (C8 corvette) GM’s electric move is probably coming to a screeching halt.

I think we will need to lower our expectations for Tesla this year but man I’m so happy they are in one of the best positions. The market will realize it soon

 

[ninpb]

Tesla should divert some resources into their insurance business. Grow it by discounting premiums. Streets are empty.

 

[RobStark]

Silly. A zero interest loan won't help if you are out of work.

Not silly. It could help the 10M plus people that buy a car this year in the US.

Not everyone will lose their job.

People will buy GM vehicles as well as Tesla vehicles.

 

[SOULPEDL]

In 2008, The Fed's balance sheet was 800B and went to 4T...this time we are starting with a fed balance sheet near 4T and by the time this is over, it will be 10T minimum I am guessing....money supply will expand...when we recover I am afraid rent will be going up some more, but so will equities.

I keep thinking inflation will follow. Thought it would be from trade wars, but when stuff stops moving and people are sitting on cash, prices rise as we've seen on corona related items. But I think it will expand to many other products soon. My dad always said "During inflation, it's good to be in debt." Anyone think this event is about to happen large scale? (Not just in taxes.)

 

[SO16]

Like uncle Jack said, our generation is one of snowflakes. We can't handle facts. We can't handle not panicking. We can't handle someone like Elon Musk not mincing words around us. Panics are bad. It's in the definition. "But you can't say that while people are dying." "You've gotta be sensitive." Imagine if your doctors and nurses are also panicking. We'll all be dead by September.

I think the only absolute truth in all this is that we can NOT keep shutting down the world economy every year. That simply is not an option. So we either suck it up and realize there will be deaths, or we go back to the stone age.

 

[Fact Checking]

Not silly. It could help the 10M plus people that buy a car this year in the US.

Not everyone will lose their job.

People will buy GM vehicles as well as Tesla vehicles.

Also, mortgage refinancings and mortgage applications already spiked after the previous rate cut and might spike again:

February New Home Purchase Mortgage Applications Increased 25.9 Percent | Mortgage Bankers Association​

This lowers mortgage payments and frees up buying power.

Once the virus uncertainty wanes I'd expect consumer spending to pick up big.