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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Zaxxon

Supporting Member
Dec 11, 2012
4,620
21,174
Colorado
I'm heading to the Gym. Recommend everybody to manage your time like managing your investment. Use your time on things that will give you the most value. First priority is health; second priority is family/friends/fun; then spend time to get good at investment.

Good advice, but targeting people with a demonstrated record of keeping up with this thread suggests it's unlikely to be heeded. :D
 

KarenRei

ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ
Jul 18, 2017
9,619
103,828
Iceland
What happened to Karen the Care Bear?

The bear suit gave me hives ;)

(Honestly, I was expecting at least some actual news re: the EU tariffs this weekend... instead the whole thing was kept classified, Trump didn't say a word about it, and the EU didn't say anything new about their plans :Þ So now it's just going to dangle over us for some time)
 

StarFoxisDown!

Active Member
Jan 23, 2019
2,189
15,619
Seattle
Super. I am guessing not market moving until EOY 2020. So, FSD is feature complete this year, but likely not approved by regulators or might be BETA until then, requiring human oversight.
On the other hand, this might be market moving in 2019 if drivers are able to experience FSD and see how close it is to completion.

If they show off FSD at the end of 2019 from picking up Elon from his house or from a public parking space/garage and do a trip of like 2 hours where the system goes through surface streets, highway, mixture of turns, roundabouts....maybe do a stunt like have the system drop Elon off somewhere for a min, car parks itself and then comes and gets him when he says he's ready...then I don't see how the stock price wouldn't move. That's too big a jump in progress to ignore. I'm a bit dubious on FSD being feature complete at the end of this year but if it is and they show it off, they would be incredibly far ahead of everyone else.
 
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StarFoxisDown!

Active Member
Jan 23, 2019
2,189
15,619
Seattle
I think you are over estimating the difficulty of writing the Tesla Network software. Musk/Tesla have been planning this for years. Why wouldn’t the software be ready? It’s about a thousand times easier than the actual FSD software. Also easier than the OTA update system. Hell, I could probably write a Tesla Network system, and I’ve only been developing web sites 5 years. Uber got big by being early with a good idea, not because they did anything exceptionally hard.

The idea of partnering with Uber isn't necessarily because I think the Tesla Network would be difficult to develop. Even if it's easy to develop, it will take software engineers and there are lots of other areas where Tesla could make advances with software besides the Tesla Network. Also, while Uber hasn't been the greatest run company for the past few years. their influence on the ride hailing industry is huge right now and far reaching. Again, I don't think Tesla needs to partner.....they've shown they can develop software on their own. I would chose Apple any day of the week as a partner over Uber.

I'm also fine with Tesla doing it all own their own and reaping all of the rewards ;)
 
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Bobfitz1

Active Member
Sep 24, 2012
1,164
3,568
Ludlow, Vt

Nothing wrong at all with Argonne researching this. However if you look at how the demand for lithium compound used for batteries will rise over the coming 20 years, it's clear that it will be quite a long time before recycled lithium can account for more than a small fraction of needed supply versus development of the various mineable sources like spodumene, lithium brines and clay deposits. Development project financing is the limiting factor in how fast these are developed into new supply. Which means once demand presses against supply, price goes up and more Li projects get funded and in a few years balances the supply vs demand.
Each GWh of Tesla batteries produced each year will not need to be recycled for 10+ years. Longer if older batteries are retasked to less demanding storage applications.
 

Carl Raymond

Active Member
Oct 18, 2018
1,459
11,394
NSW, Australia
He did mention that it doesn’t really jive with Tesla’s sustainability mission.

Just listened to it. The initial question is about crypto, but thereafter they interchange the terms crypto and bitcoin willy nilly. Crypto will be a huge success when they design one as efficient as say visa or eftpos transactions. Bitcoin is a failure because it uses several orders of magnitude too much energy. It’s based on proof of work, a foundational design flaw. A conspiracy theory advocate would say that bitcoin was invented by the coal industry.
 

CorneliusXX

Active Member
Jun 19, 2015
2,042
15,961
London
The bear suit gave me hives ;)

(Honestly, I was expecting at least some actual news re: the EU tariffs this weekend... instead the whole thing was kept classified, Trump didn't say a word about it, and the EU didn't say anything new about their plans :Þ So now it's just going to dangle over us for some time)
I realised some time ago that i am far too stupid to predict the market. Even for these sort of political announcements it's best to give yourself a wide margin of error.
 

Curt Renz

Well-Known Member
Mar 5, 2013
6,286
79,120
USA
I received this response today from one of my US senators representing Illinois (bolding is mine):

Dear Neighbor,

Thank you for contacting me to share your thoughts on tax credits for electric vehicles (EV). I appreciate you taking the time to make me aware of your concerns on this important matter.

Climate change represents a daunting environmental, economic and national security challenge. We are already experiencing devastating effects in Illinois and across the country as a result of extreme weather events. To promote adoption of innovative clean vehicle technology, Congress established a plug-in EV tax credit in 2008. This credit appears to have contributed to rising sales of plug-in electric vehicles. However, the EV tax credit phases out once a manufacturer sells 200,000 electric vehicles and many leading companies are reaching or have surpassed this mark.

The United States is still transitioning away from traditional gasoline-fueled vehicles to alternative fuel options, including plug-in electric models. Congress should incentivize auto manufacturers to continue making significant investments in the development of plug-in EV technology. Rather than stopping incentives for manufacturers that made bold investments in plug-in technology, we should extend the EV tax credit in a manner that results in greater innovation and enhanced accessibility of plug-in electric vehicles for everyday American consumers. This will strengthen our emerging clean energy economy and reduce harmful emissions.

Thank you again for contacting me on this important issue. If you would like more information on my work in the Senate, please visit my website at www.duckworth.senate.gov. You can access my voting record and see what I am doing to address today’s most important issues. I hope that you will continue to share your views and opinions with me and let me know whenever I may be of assistance to you.


Sincerely,

Tammy Duckworth
United States Senator
 

KarenRei

ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ
Jul 18, 2017
9,619
103,828
Iceland
I realised some time ago that i am far too stupid to predict the market. Even for these sort of political announcements it's best to give yourself a wide margin of error.

Lesson learned :Þ

While what effectively amounted to a suboptimally-done roll of ITM calls and some losses on a small number of puts was uncomfortable, on the other hand, being entirely out of February is some real stress off me (I was going to have to roll soon regardless). And at least my worries about a market freakout about EU trade has been pushed off to... some unknown point in the future ;)

Sigh... just thinking of where this stock would be if not for these macros.....
 
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Cherry Wine

Supporting Member
Oct 4, 2018
2,319
17,605
California
Lesson learned :Þ

While what effectively amounted to a suboptimally-done roll of ITM calls and some losses on a small number of puts was uncomfortable, on the other hand, being entirely out of February is some real stress off me (I was going to have to roll soon regardless). And at least my worries about a market freakout about EU trade has been pushed off to... some unknown point in the future ;)

Sigh... just thinking of where this stock would be if not for these macros.....

Agreed. Some very strong headwinds out of Tesla’s control.
 

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