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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
ruralectric
Member
Hmm. I'm always tempted to try and time the market. And I suck pretty bad at it, with rare exception. But. An interesting set of circumstances coming up.
Unknown rate of de-escalation of the pandemic. With different sections of the country on different curves, the "revovery" I'd guess will likely be slow and incremental. But could be better. Butl timing could vary by months.
And minimum 4-week shutdown now, and earnings call and battery day coming up.
My thinking FWIW: Most here are expecting battery day to reveal a step change in battery technology, and we might have epected a rollout towards the fall or beyond, with mileage/performance/software upgrades across the product line.
I don't think it takes much imagination to think that Tesla is going to maximize the downtime to their advantage and move up (to the extent possible) any changes they may have had planned for later in the year. It just seems unlikely that they would schedule another shutdown for retooling later in the year if they could avoid it. In addition, the duration of the current shutdown is going to deplete inventory, where normally they would roll out incentives to clear inventory prior to rollout of model changes. With all that in mind what could possibly be better posturing for a return to business than to stimulate demand with new hardware upgrades, especially when the ones who regularly trade-in for the latest and greates will be least affected by the recession.
I won't go far as to make exact predictions on what, but I think that whatever surprises Tesla had in store for later this year are going to get their debut much earlier than originally planned. Whether or not they discuss during the earnings call, I expect the fireworks to begin in the days following the ER.
To the moon Alice.
ps: I meant to add: as model changes roll out and the Y ramps up, there is going to be an incremental stepdown in the entry price of great used Teslas. It's gonna be great. If I don't die from a virus.
Unknown rate of de-escalation of the pandemic. With different sections of the country on different curves, the "revovery" I'd guess will likely be slow and incremental. But could be better. Butl timing could vary by months.
And minimum 4-week shutdown now, and earnings call and battery day coming up.
My thinking FWIW: Most here are expecting battery day to reveal a step change in battery technology, and we might have epected a rollout towards the fall or beyond, with mileage/performance/software upgrades across the product line.
I don't think it takes much imagination to think that Tesla is going to maximize the downtime to their advantage and move up (to the extent possible) any changes they may have had planned for later in the year. It just seems unlikely that they would schedule another shutdown for retooling later in the year if they could avoid it. In addition, the duration of the current shutdown is going to deplete inventory, where normally they would roll out incentives to clear inventory prior to rollout of model changes. With all that in mind what could possibly be better posturing for a return to business than to stimulate demand with new hardware upgrades, especially when the ones who regularly trade-in for the latest and greates will be least affected by the recession.
I won't go far as to make exact predictions on what, but I think that whatever surprises Tesla had in store for later this year are going to get their debut much earlier than originally planned. Whether or not they discuss during the earnings call, I expect the fireworks to begin in the days following the ER.
To the moon Alice.
ps: I meant to add: as model changes roll out and the Y ramps up, there is going to be an incremental stepdown in the entry price of great used Teslas. It's gonna be great. If I don't die from a virus.
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JusRelax
Active Member
I'll make a prediction -- Plaid was made more simple to be able to release it earlier. Early Q3 release of Plaid mode?
Krugerrand
Meow
Please if anyone knows for sure....let me know....I am asking for a friend
You have a friend? Highly doubtful.
I’ll be your friend, though. I will tell you exactly which options to purchase. PM so you alone can get rich.
powertoold
Active Member
Wouldn't it make more sense if they're currently updating the line for plaid?
Jobs report tomorrow. You might get a chance. Can it go up again after a third bad report?
JusRelax
Active Member
It's possible... but I'm hesitant because I think Plaid is using new battery tech. That would mean that Tesla has somewhere setup a line for the new battery tech.
I also struggle with the FSD price increase. I bought my M3 SR+ w/ hw3 FSD in late May of last year, expecting to be blown away when "feature complete" FSD was to be delivered at the end of 2019. Didn't happen. Will be purchasing MY this summer, but won't be paying for FSD until my M3 can somewhat successfully navigate on AP in town. Hopefully Tesla can deliver some semblance of true FSD this year, otherwise I don't think it'll be a significant revenue generator for them. Highway AP good enough for me and most other Tesla-owning acquaintances, and I don't know anyone who currently owns a Tesla (not that I know many) who will purchase FSD again until there is a noticeable improvement in autonomous driving.
FSD is in an awkward place now. If it hadn't been a 2k upgrade for me because I had purchased EAP I'm not sure I would have jumped.
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
Call me crazy, but I would be willing to pay $10,000+ once the car is actually able to handle some streets without a driver. It would save me over $3,000 per year in train fare if the car could drop me off at work and drive home to park itself.
Thanks for the offer...but no thanks.
I have been making plenty of ship builder and landing craft friends.
But not to worry we shall meet soon enough.
I think resell value wise as an early 2018 model 3 customer, the upgrade of the computer is worth a 2k or 3k increase. To me it definitely improved EAP after the hw3 swap. Less ping pong, and can actually calculate the frames fast enough to not have me run into the wall when exiting this one ramp(but Tesla still needs to fix the speed prior to exiting. It is going way too fast.)
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Once again today, Los Angeles has the cleanest air of any major city on Earth, scoring a remarkably low score of 2 on the AQI index (by contrast the worst city is Hanoi at 187):
Code:
Ranking Major city AQI
1 Los Angeles, USA 2
2 Canberra, Australia 5
3 Salt Lake City, USA 5
4 Zagreb, Croatia 6
5 Oslo, Norway 8
6 Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan 10
7 Prague, Czech Republic 16
8 Helsinki, Finland 17
9 Jerusalem, Israel 19
10 Sydney, Australia 19
11 San Francisco, USA 22
12 Denver, USA 23
13 Detroit, USA 23
14 Krasnoyarsk, Russia 23
15 Bogota, Colombia 25
16 New York, USA 25
17 Santiago, Chile 26
18 Toronto, Canada 29
19 Sao Paulo, Brazil 29
20 Nagoya, Japan 33
21 Johannesburg, South Africa 33
22 Madrid, Spain 33
23 Kyoto, Japan 35
24 Bangkok, Thailand 36
25 Kobe, Japan 37
26 Tel Aviv-Yafo, Israel 38
27 Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 38
28 Lima, Peru 39
29 Tehran, Iran 40
30 Vancouver BC, Canada 42
31 Portland, USA 43
32 Moscow, Russia 43
33 Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR 45
34 Kuching, Malaysia 46
35 Seattle, USA 47
36 Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan 49
37 Melbourne, Australia 51
38 Kabul, Afghanistan 52
39 Bern, Switzerland 53
40 Lyon, France 54
41 Singapore, Singapore 54
42 Taipei, Taiwan 57
43 Shenzhen, China 58
44 Phnom Penh, Cambodia 60
45 Osaka, Japan 60
46 Vienna, Austria 61
47 Paris, France 61
48 Vienna, Austria 61
49 Tashkent, Uzbekistan 63
50 Munich, Germany 63
51 Berlin, Germany 63
52 Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam 63
53 Busan, South Korea 63
54 Tokyo, Japan 63
55 Brussels, Belgium 65
56 Dubai, United Arab Emirates 65
57 Wroclaw, Poland 68
58 Incheon, South Korea 68
59 Riyadh, Saudi Arabia 70
60 Milano, Italy 70
61 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia 71
62 Pristina, Kosovo 71
63 Seoul, South Korea 74
64 Bratislava, Slovakia 76
65 Sarajevo, Bosnia Herzegovina 76
66 Karachi, Pakistan 77
67 Kyiv, Ukraine 79
68 Skopje, North Macedonia 81
69 Mexico City, Mexico 82
70 Budapest, Hungary 83
71 Delhi, India 87
72 Amsterdam, Netherlands 89
73 Belgrade, Serbia 90
74 Guangzhou, China 90
75 Kuwait City, Kuwait 97
76 Beijing, China 97
77 Kathmandu, Nepal 98
78 Hangzhou, China 99
79 Mumbai, India 104
80 Wuhan, China 107
81 Kaohsiung, Taiwan 107
82 Rotterdam, Netherlands 108
83 Chongqing, China 111
84 Yangon, Myanmar 113
85 Warsaw, Poland 125
86 Poznan, Poland 134
87 Jakarta, Indonesia 136
88 Chengdu, China 139
89 Shanghai, China 141
90 Krakow, Poland 147
91 Sofia, Bulgaria 149
92 Lahore, Pakistan 154
93 London, United Kingdom 154
94 Shenyang, China 155
95 Dhaka, Bangladesh 162
96 Hanoi, Vietnam 187
97 Chiang Mai, Thailand 187Shirley we must pay attention to what CARB could achieve with a 100% EV mandate.
CH33RS!
I agree 100%. When that day comes Tesla will make so much money on FSD alone they could spin off a whole new business if they wanted. All I'm saying is that there's been chatter about FSD for years, and it hasn't come yet. I really hope it does, and I'm pretty certain it will, but we're not there yet. Hopefully soon.
Zero to none I think. It's easier to do it while we are under a state of emergency and bypass red tape etc. but that won't happen when things are normal again.
Yes the anecdotal info along those lines seems just as consistent as it was a few months ago.
JusRelax
Active Member
You're such a negative nancy. I give it a 0.00001% chance because I'm bullish on Tesla.
But seriously, I was actually wondering, with all of the automotive parts going into the ventilator, how difficult would it be to pass it as medical-grade equipment?
I would think the simplification of it is to allow the powertrain to easily be put in the S, X, Roadster, and Cybertruck. If Plaid is being used on the tri-motor cybertruck they will likely need to make this powertrain quickly or efficiently. I think there was an overwhelming amount of people who ordered that model. Cost wise, and efficiency wise it cannot be complex/unique considering they moved up the date.
S, X and Roadster will be low volume sales so with those models in mind the plaid powertrain was likely unique, expensive, and complex to make. But now that it will be arriving in a sub $100k vehicle they will need to adjust.
(plaid is the powertrain of the tri-motor correct? My theory is pointless either way but even more so if it’s not)
edit:
https://www.motortrend.com/news/tesla-cybertruck-electric-pickup-plaid-power/
It definitely will be in the cybertruck
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Mostly, medical grade equipment needs to be certified. I don't believe that where the parts come from matters all that much as long as they can pass the certification.
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