Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Carl Raymond]

Stock is so oversold, the shortie whack a mole efforts are not as effective as they were earlier in the week.

Yes. The price is down, but it feels like sitting on a coiled spring.

 

[Nocturnal]

He is just repeating what he has heard - but I think most of the people even on TMC are skeptical level 4 FSD will be feature complete by end of '19. I'd say even level 3 - can safely commute but need to be able to take over within minutes when needed - would be a tremendous achievement and will propel TSLA to 700+.

Agreed. If a Tesla can basically drive itself while a driver sits in the seat it will literally be a "shut up and take my money" type of situation.

Warning, Fred link: Volkswagen announces all-electric version of its Multivan

How a large van with 78kWh battery will get to 400km is beyond me...

The updated T6.1 Multivan will offer an all-electric version of the vehicle in conjunction with German tuning company ABT. The release notes detailed a few specs:

“With an output of 82 kW / 112 PS and a battery capacity of either 38.8 kWh or 77.6 kWh, driving ranges of more than 400 km (NEDC) will be possible – making the vehicle ideal for commercial duty in the urban world.”

You don't trust VW to be honest about efficiency? Whhaaaaaa?​

 

[DFibRL8R]

This actually matters, psychologically. Grille is to EV as keypad is to smartphone. People will want the world to know they have gone electric. Cars with grilles - think blackberry.

Same goes for tailpipes. I notice more and more ICE vehicles with cleverly concealed pipes as if they're embarrassed by them (they probably should be given the étron that comes out of them!)

 

[Cherry Wine]

Some potentially interesting money flow activity on TSLA today that could be regarded as bullish -- caveat emptor.

TSLA is flagged on the WSJ's "Selling on Strength" indicator today, with a total money flow of -$18M. However, block trades alone have a money flow of +$15M. In other words, if I'm interpreting this data correctly, it appears that some large hedge funds or institutional investors may be putting money into the stock while small-to-mid size investors are unloading today.

Money Flows: Selling on Strength - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com

Take this for what it's worth, which is not much, and throw in a dash of salt for good measure. Just an observation I thought worth sharing with the thread.

 

[Vitold]

Many of east cost traders/investors were on winter vacation so I would not read much into what market did or did not do this week.

 

[Nocturnal]

Same goes for tailpipes. I notice more and more ICE vehicles with cleverly concealed pipes as if they're embarrassed by them (they probably should be given the étron that comes out of them!)

Large/showy tail pipes are just for show for the vast majority of stock cars anyway. If I were unkind I could call them "ricey" (fake things suggest show performance but that don't do anything) Why show off the 1" exhaust pipe on your Camry?

 

[lascavarian]

He is just repeating what he has heard - but I think most of the people even on TMC are skeptical level 4 FSD will be feature complete by end of '19.

Unless I am mistaken, it will be Tesla that will define what FSD means. He is not saying anything about Level 4 which is a definition developed elsewhere. This is similar to the charging plug design, they contribute to the discussion but do not feel restricted by what a committee decides.

Feature Complete is a SW term as I am familiar with it. FC is usually Alpha code where the goal is to get the basic units of features present and working together on some level. Beta code is a refinement of FC code with adjustments as needed and Release Candidate code is pre-release well polished code.

My idea of EAP is that it is RC code on the autopilot path in combination with well tested parts (RC) of FSD code. We have never seen any full FSD code in the wild. Once it is FC then there will be months of Beta code releases followed by perhaps many months until it achieves RC quality with regulatory blessing. So I view FC as a step but not a leap and it is in the control of Tesla since they define it.

So my perspective is that we will have to wait for Tesla to define what FC FSC means. We know it includes a new hardware implementation of the NN vision solution at the least. It could be even past Level 4 in some ways - we will see when it comes out. Reaching Feature Complete status does not promise a release of beta code into the wild since this will be largely driven by regulatory permissions as I understand it. It is a big project in my eyes.

If I have this wrong, give me a clue.

 

[John Beans]

I was about to write the same.

Also the Battery production is linked to the MXWL acquisition but we all do not know yet what impact this will have on batteries and packs. In terms of required volume production per car it may mean nothing while the new MXWL innovation could result in longer range beside other interested specs like faster loading and unloading.

At this stage with mass production of the 3 and ramping delivery in EU I doubt that the MXWL business has an impact on GF4 for now.

Maxwell has way more patents than a firm its size usually has, and some of them are rather broad. I wouldn't be surprised if the impetus for the acquisition involved potential infringement by Tesla on an aspect of battery tech or a product process that would have been impossible to change at this point.

 

[anthonyj]

Not me, but interesting.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

He is just repeating what he has heard - but I think most of the people even on TMC are skeptical level 4 FSD will be feature complete by end of '19. I'd say even level 3 - can safely commute but need to be able to take over within minutes when needed - would be a tremendous achievement and will propel TSLA to 700+.

To be fair, what Elon described as technologically feasible by the end of the year essentially is level 3(car can handle entire driving task most of the time, but human might need to take over in some situations). Level 4 implies the human can clock out entirely, which he suggested is feasible by the end of 2020.

 

[EVNow]

Agreed. If a Tesla can basically drive itself while a driver sits in the seat it will literally be a "shut up and take my money" type of situation.

In CA - the huge success of Prius and later EVs was partially atleast because of carpool privileges. Just imagine if the car can just drive on its own during commute. They will also have all the existing 3 (and S & X ?) owners wanting to upgrade - just pure profit.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Some very interesting commentary on the 8.6K $295 2/22 puts that were opened here. Note that this predates the CR story, but follows the GC departure story. Four minute video. So were these positions opened on Wednesday at open? If so, this reeks of insider trading.

Tom White on Twitter

 

[anthonyj]

Some very interesting commentary on the 8.6K $295 2/22 puts that were opened here. Note that this predates the CR story, but follows the GC departure story. Four minute video. So were these positions opened on Wednesday at open? If so, this reeks of insider trading.

Tom White on Twitter

so basically if we follow this guy we can all get silly rich and buy out TSLA ourselves? Hmmmm

 

[Vitold]

Maxwell has way more patents than a firm its size usually has, and some of them are rather broad. I wouldn't be surprised if the impetus for the acquisition involved potential infringement by Tesla on an aspect of battery tech or a product process that would have been impossible to change at this point.

Maxwell was trying to get people interested in their tech since 2016 but found no takers. They probably decided to sell the company after former management was found guilty of cooking books.

Hopefully they were not inflating their research as well - I trust that Tesla knows what they are doing.

 

[RobStark]

I trust that CR is being honest with their assessment.

One problem with CR recommendations is that it assumes all buyers are the same and buyers have infinite choices.

Reliability and Durability is CR's Auto Survey raison d'être.

~25% of Americans consider CR when purchasing a car. If reliability and durability is not high on your list of priorities then don't pay attention to what CR is saying.

Not everyone picks the most reliable car. FCAU would exist if people did. Not everyone picks the cleanest car. VW Group wouldn't exist if people did. We know electric is the cleanest and we don't need surveys to tell us this Not everyone picks the safest car. CR is not IIHS or NHTSA . The chances of you getting into a near death collision where marginal safety matters is quite small and doesn't move some buyers.

CR Auto Survey is what it is: it tells us about how often we need take the car in for the shop.

Customer satisfaction encompasses every subcategory therefore it doesn't double count to have other categories.

 

[EVNow]

To be fair, what Elon described as technologically feasible by the end of the year essentially is level 3(car can handle entire driving task most of the time, but human might need to take over in some situations). Level 4 implies the human can clock out entirely, which he suggested is feasible by the end of 2020.

That would seem more probable. Isn't Waymo claiming level 4 now ?

 

[mrdoubleb]

Morning Cindy arrived at Shanghai with approx. 1600 Model 3s. Credit to Vincent.

 

[jerry33]

They’re actively trying to prepare everyone for the world of Hydrogen cars, with their needed even more enormous grills. It’ll be interesting to see how long they take to realize they’re on a dead-end path.

Hydrogen Fuel Cell = Pteranodon of the car fuel world.

The hydrogen proponents keep saying that hydrogen will be made with little or no electricity. Magic fungus or some such.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

That would seem more probable. Isn't Waymo claiming level 4 now ?

Yes, though only in tight geographical regions.

 

[Artful Dodger]

How do you say consumer reports in Chinese? It's a trick question, because you don't.

Oh, you can but it's more like "I'd like to report my neighbor..."

Cheers!