Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Would be interesting to compare put volume to shorting. Of course because of delta hedging they need to sell stock if they SP falls. Didn’t happen today.

FINRA doesn't track or report on derivatives, so I have no data source to do such a comparison ( paging @FrankSG ). Options are real-time data w/o archives, whereas FINRA washes out intraday time stamps, releasing only a single daily volume summary.

So only a statistical approach in theory could be able to tease out relationships. But they'd be correlations after many such events, not proof of a single event since FINRA also strips out the identities of short exempt traders.

In summary, at best we're given a glimpse at the shadow of movement behind a curtain, but the smell is noticable...

Regards,
Lodger

 

[FreshPrince]

I truly wish more people had this viewpoint. The virus is not going away any time soon. It won't go away until either 1.) Everyone has gotten it or 2.) Everyone is vaccinated, if we can even make an effective one.

We cannot just shelter in place for years. Open up the economy, take safety precautions and put extra steps to take care of the really high risk (like grocery stores having special times set aside foo them and such).

Heard immunity requires less than 100% people with antibodies, I read it starts from 40% but real value likely depends on R0. I agree 100% that US is too big and too diverse to be quarantined like Hubei. As it taken only few people from wet market to infect the world, COVID-19 will continue to flare-up for the foreseeable future. And, it will be US virus, not Wuhan.

We should manage it and not let people die from despair or the virus. Tesla and health officials need to work together to keep the spread under control - hopefully they can work better in the future (I think Dr Erica Pan has to go before that happens).

 

[Krugerrand]

Then almost everyone here should stop commenting about what Tesla should or should not do?

If that’s what you got out of that, then sure. That’s what you should do.

 

[jhm]

Tesla Model 3 sales in China plunge 64% in April despite electric car market recovery

Can anyone explain this?

Lora Kolodny contributed misleading to the above report.

But...

M/M comparisons are misleading. Tesla has a quarterly delivery cycle. The first month of the quarter is always the smallest. Better to compare Q/Q: 3635 Model 3 China deliveries in April 2020 to 3813 Model 3 China deliveries in Jan 2020.

Tesla’s China Sales Fell in March. Why It Doesn’t Matter For the Stock.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla Model 3 sales in China plunge 64% in April despite electric car market recovery

Can anyone explain this?

Been discussed in this thread extensively. At least two factors:

1. Tesla's imminent price drop for SR+ due to China changing incentives
   
2. Announcement of MiC Model 3 LR (w. CATL bty) caused order switching

Demand is not an issue. Tesla will sell every car they can make at GF3 in China, then they'll start exporting to greater Asia once supply starts to catch up to demand. Could be awhile, especially with Model Y coming in 2021.

In summary, its FUD.

 

[bkp_duke]

Thank you for not being a dick and letting me catch up with the posts.

Sure, I’ll take some spoon feeding since you’ve yet to properly back up your statement.

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

You even rated it "disagree". You often disagree with stuff you don't actually read?

 

[SO16]

NBC news of course just had a hit piece on Tesla being open defying health officials telling them to be closed. They put up an employee who says he is concerned about his safety.

Of course they don’t mention that the federal level, state government, local mayor and all other major US automakers are allowed to be open. Nor do they mention that Tesla made clear employees do not need to return to work if they are concerned about their safety.

OMG do I hate the media!!!!!

 

[bkp_duke]

NBC news of course just had a hit piece on Tesla being open defying health officials telling them to be closed. They put up an employee who says he is concerned about his safety.

Of course they don’t mention that the federal level, state government, local mayor and all other major US automakers are allowed to be open. Nor do they mention that Tesla made clear employees do not need to return to work if they are concerned about their safety.

OMG do I hate the media!!!!!

I'm sure they found one of the employees that is trying to organize entry into the UAW . . .

 

[Unpilot]

All of a sudden, right when demand was threatening to become a potential issue

@Krugerrand ....... ahem

 

[AZRI11]

OMG, @Krugerrand is Elon!

Your right! They both have bad backs.

 

[RobStark]

Scroll back, I already did link that the last automotive paint regulation change was in 2001.

You need to be spoon fed?

Here is a change from 2005 to be implemented in 2009


California Lowers Allowable VOC Content In Automotive Coatings


Toyota made there last car in Fremont in August 2009.

 

[jhm]

Been discussed in this thread extensively. At least two factors:

1. Tesla's imminent price drop for SR+ due to China changing incentives
   
2. Announcement of MiC Model 3 LR (w. CATL bty) caused order switching

Demand is not an issue. Tesla will sell every car the can make in China, then they'll start exporting.

In summary, its FUD.

Thanks.

I think that discussion got painted over.

 

[X Fan]

NBC news of course just had a hit piece on Tesla being open defying health officials telling them to be closed. They put up an employee who says he is concerned about his safety.

Of course they don’t mention that the federal level, state government, local mayor and all other major US automakers are allowed to be open. Nor do they mention that Tesla made clear employees do not need to return to work if they are concerned about their safety.

OMG do I hate the media!!!!!

lol: with the large number of folks working in the plant it’s inevitable that someone would be unhappy.

Even in good times, there’s always someone disgruntled.

 

[charlesgres]

Here's an interesting article from Fred Lambert of Electrek:

Tesla superfandom becomes toxic, negative for electric revolution [op-ed] - Electrek

I know he's often portrayed here as having become teslaq, but his stance seems very reasonable to me.. The last week the very aggressive attack-dog style of thirdrowtesla has been bothering me, and Fred's article kind of hits home for me.

Please read to the end.. I think he has excellent advise..

 

[hershey101]

Just looked through Nikola's investor deck (here for those interested) and it's nice to see the comparisons to TSLA in section IV (too bad it's "Market data as of February 28, 2020" ). Probably going to "diversify" a bit in Q2 and get some NKLA if it's close to the proposed $10/share. Anyone in VTIQ make a lot of money today?

$VTIQ is valuing $NKLA at around $8B-$10B.... Bubble anyone? Anyone aware of Nikola Motors real product and business? Can't find much info on it.

 

[Todd Burch]

So is there consensus that the drop in macros this afternoon was about word that the $3T Democratic-sponsored stimulus bill would be DOA?

(Holy cow, how are we ever going to pay for all this...)

 

[MC3OZ]

Just to provide some perspective on more conservative investors.
I had a friend who had stewardship of a multi-generational family trust.
The money had come from running Butcher shop(s) in gold mining town(s) during the gold rush and had been invested in the the share-market since the gold rush.

The strategy was diversified/research driven/buy and hold, with good advice and reinvestment of dividends.
Every time we discussed a company he seemed to have shares in the company, and knew something about it that I didn't.
Most of that knowledge probably came from abut 20 years of one-on-one meetings with senior staff at a stock broker.
He was an important client, who got good advice.

That kind of family trust doesn't need to take risks, if they are buying into Tesla now is about the time they would do it, they are waiting until success is assured. This kind of ultra-conservative approach works when you start with a big pot of money, and invest it for more than 100 years.

He didn't do much active trading, I guess periodic review meetings with the broker set the strategy for the next time interval.

This kind of investor might be small in number, but they do represent a large chunk of money, that is only now being invested in Tesla, or is sill on the sidelines.

 

[Boomer19]

I just checked and still no PUTs sold for the most part. Imagine that. I was wondering why no PUTs where being sold today. Now I know why. Tomorrow morning after the next step down there will be a lot more money made selling them instead of today. To me not worth putting a bet on it tho. (pun intended)

Current volume for the day:
View attachment 541124

have to push it down 30-40 maybe more as a setup for battery day so that could become a profit-making event as well

 

[SMAlset]

NBC news of course just had a hit piece on Tesla being open defying health officials telling them to be closed. They put up an employee who says he is concerned about his safety.

Of course they don’t mention that the federal level, state government, local mayor and all other major US automakers are allowed to be open. Nor do they mention that Tesla made clear employees do not need to return to work if they are concerned about their safety.

OMG do I hate the media!!!!!

The real test however would be if there was another auto manufacturer in Alameda County and whether it too had been unable to open or not. Honestly saying that all these other car manufacturers are able to open isn't exactly apples to apples with them being out of state and under different State and County health departments making orders based on their infection/hospitalization rates. And everyone here knows that. We all know the masks are not a guarantee, nor are temperature checks or even testing right now and while safety protocols will be the way of life for sometime to come to minimize infection rate, the fewer infected people "socializing or working in business together" the more likely the rates will stay low and hospitals can handle it. That is a goal of their and not really a bad one. If they are waiting to have more PPE available or quick testing available and delivered within another week, well I see why they would want to hold off. In any event not a great situation for Tesla or really the County who is losing revenue while they can't operate.

No question auto manufacturing is listed under the Federal and even our California State "Essential Businesses" and a pandemic is a bit different than the U.S. being at war with some other country when these type of business would be deemed to operate.

Honestly as much as people may want to buy a Tesla or other new car, the bigger question will be will people feel comfortable with the current and future economic situation of buying a big purchase like that. I read that people are saving money right now unlike what they have been in the recent past likely due to job insecurity.

 

[SO16]

The real test however would be if there was another auto manufacturer in Alameda County and whether it too had been unable to open or not. Honestly saying that all these other car manufacturers are able to open isn't exactly apples to apples with them being out of state and under different State and County health departments making orders based on their infection/hospitalization rates. And everyone here knows that. No question auto manufacturing is listed under the Federal and even our California State "Essential Businesses" and a pandemic is a bit different than the U.S. being at war with some other country when these type of business would be deemed to operate.

Well we don’t have that exact situation. We can only work with what we have. And even though those other automotive companies are in other states, the scenario of a democratic governor, COVID deaths, etc are all pretty darn close.