Head over to the Iceland Meetup thread (https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/tmc-iceland-meetup-2020.181724/page-9-) Karen posts there, maybe better quality than here?
Looks like even the whole Karen thread has been removed
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Looks like even the whole Karen thread has been removed
Is it safe to say that the market has pretty much completed a V-shaped recovery already?
Amazing that we’re at pre-coronavirus levels already. I understand markets are forward looking, but main street isn’t really the same as before.
ETA: Not that I believe the markets ever cared about main street.
Amazing that we’re at pre-coronavirus levels already. I understand markets are forward looking, but main street isn’t really the same as before.
ETA: Not that I believe the markets ever cared about main street.
When I'm comparing Nasdaq and Tesla's chart, I'm mostly doing it from Q1 Earnings date. And the reason for that is because I still think Q1 earnings were flat out amazing and Tesla deserved a much higher valuation after those earnings. The margins were spectacular and while some people will say it was because of credits, my response would be "And?". Q1 earnings showed us how much credits will helps margins going forward and not only will they stay consistent(with the exception of Q2 because of obvious reasons), they'll actually increase next year and then again the year after that. When Tesla replicates those margins(or slightly higher) in Q3 and Q4 with Q3 and Q4 production rates, Tesla's going to crush earnings in the 2nd half the year. I would think big money would see that.
But yes, if you look at the YTD charts, there's not much to complain about
. My complaining is simply because of how great I thought Q1 was.When I'm comparing Nasdaq and Tesla's chart, I'm mostly doing it from Q1 Earnings date. And the reason for that is because I still think Q1 earnings were flat out amazing and Tesla deserved a much higher valuation after those earnings. The margins were spectacular and while some people will say it was because of credits, my response would be "And?". Q1 earnings showed us how much credits will helps margins going forward and not only will they stay consistent(with the exception of Q2 because of obvious reasons), they'll actually increase next year and then again the year after that. When Tesla replicates those margins(or slightly higher) in Q3 and Q4 with Q3 and Q4 production rates, Tesla's going to crush earnings in the 2nd half the year. I would think big money would see that.
But yes, if you look at the YTD charts, there's not much to complain about
It'll come, don't worry. Think of the current manipulation as a buying opportunity - of course one year back, while we were hitting lows of $178 (almost to the day, folks!!!), saying high $800's was a "sale", would have seemed but I believe it is.
Regardless of others' opinions, I still think we're being held down by the MM's so they can cream on options - suits me as I sell weeklies too and being stuck in these channels is very profitable. I think a 1 cent profit in Q2 would lift the lid off the whole thing.
But WTF do I know?
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
<HTML>
#knowManipulation
<BODY>
</HTML><KABUKI>
Upper-BB at 16:00:15 was $882.99
Close SP: $882.96
</KABUKI>
</BODY>Upper-BB at 16:00:15 was $882.99
Close SP: $882.96
</KABUKI>
#knowManipulation
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jeewee3000
Active Member
USA markets maybe, EU markets not at all. My European stocks are still around 20% from pre Corona levels (february).
The above does not make a lot of sense to me given the fact that the US are not handling covid better than most of EU.
Cement mixer trucks arriving in Grüneheide in this latest video by Tobias Lindh:
dc_h
Active Member
I don’t know the post, but I actually recall stealth posting about calls. I missed chasing some cheap calls earlier this year myself. No Nostradamus here
Cirrus MS100D
Member
Anecdote from my BIL who had a run-of-the-mill Ford F-150 that just came off a 2 year lease in mid-April during the COVID-19 peak: The local dealership was pensive about making any sort of commitment during the turn-in and they were still trying to figure out how to WFH, seemed scared, and clueless. Since my BIL has a second car and neither he or his wife and family are driving anywhere for the foreseeable future, he figured he'd wait until the dealerships started getting desperate to get a new (or 2019) F-150 since he could easily get by for the next few months without it.
He said there has been a complete reversal over the last ~2 weeks with the various Ford dealerships. Now they won't even return his call or email, they're totally unwilling to budge or deal or negotiate - "The price is what it is. We can do 0% financing for 7 years, but it'll be at full MSRP. We barely have enough in-stock as it is, so this is our best offer." Since he's got nothing to lose, he called their bluff, and so far, they're sticking to it and have not engaged him for over a week.
We talked about it a bit and can't totally make sense of it, but there are articles that indicate the traditional auto dealers (or at least pickup trucks) are actually doing pretty good right now. It may have been the case that production dipped in concert with demand and both are on a rebound right now, with demand briefly outstripping supply, causing dealers to DGAF right now.
How this pertains to Tesla?
I think this is yet another check-mark in the "incredibly bullish" column. I realize light/medium-duty trucks are not cross-shopped with S/3/X/Y, but I think this bodes extremely well for the remainder of the year.
IMO, it doesn’t make sense to most people. But, we have an administration hell bent to continue making the markets reach new highs going into reelection.
As much as people hate on Trump, to be frank, without him the market would not be where it is right now IMHO. So, at least people should give him credit for that since their portfolios would be lighter otherwise. And, I’m sure there’s many across the spectrum who will trade personal opinion for a bigger bank account. Not a Trump voter myself but this is the way i see it.
Edit: this post probably belongs in Market Politics. Wutev’s.
Cant help but think we are in phase 2 of the diagram below ... bear market rally ... I am still long and strong TSLA but i think there is Macro pain ahead .
I think we might see some TSLA buying opportunities in the months ahead ... falling tide impacts all boats... i am prepping for this selling some weak long term positions
I think we might see some TSLA buying opportunities in the months ahead ... falling tide impacts all boats... i am prepping for this selling some weak long term positions
ARK Invest - Monday: Vertically Integrating Hardware and Software Enables Over-the-Air Update
Excerpt:
After vertically integrating hardware and software, companies can offer additional services that generate more revenue at higher margins. In 14 months, for example, Tesla enhanced the performance and functionality of the Model 3 with 14 WiFi-enabled software updates, as shown below. Last December, it added premium connectivity for live traffic visualization and maps for $9.99 per month, and later in December it offered Model 3 owners a software enabled option to increase 0 to 60 mph acceleration performance by 0.5 seconds for $2,000.
Excerpt:
After vertically integrating hardware and software, companies can offer additional services that generate more revenue at higher margins. In 14 months, for example, Tesla enhanced the performance and functionality of the Model 3 with 14 WiFi-enabled software updates, as shown below. Last December, it added premium connectivity for live traffic visualization and maps for $9.99 per month, and later in December it offered Model 3 owners a software enabled option to increase 0 to 60 mph acceleration performance by 0.5 seconds for $2,000.
If that's true, this must be true as well.Cant help but think we are in phase 2 of the diagram below ... bear market rally ... I am still long and strong TSLA but i think there is Macro pain ahead .
I think we might see some TSLA buying opportunities in the months ahead ... falling tide impacts all boats... i am prepping for this selling some weak long term positions
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Guns and pickup trucks are selling quite well in rural America right now. Very limited supply, so yeah.....it's gonna be 2 months til they have excess pickups.
Cant help but think we are in phase 2 of the diagram below ... bear market rally ... I am still long and strong TSLA but i think there is Macro pain ahead .
I think we might see some TSLA buying opportunities in the months ahead ... falling tide impacts all boats... i am prepping for this selling some weak long term positions
I’ve been hearing this same argument for two months already. But why should history repeat itself? We are in a unique situation, with a forced economic shutdown, big monetary interventions by central banks and governments and few attractive investment alternatives for investors. Maybe this time the stock market reaction will be unique too. Clinging to what happened in the past may cost you money. It has already been costly for thousands of investors who are waiting for that second drop.
P.S. Why does your chart show an S&P that has recovered maybe 30-35% of the drop, while in fact is has already recovered 75%? It doesn’t resemble the historic charts anymore.
jhm
Well-Known Member
So why growth in 30%-40% range now and not 50% or more? It looks like Tesla has been throttling capex to get to positive FCF. See Q1 2020 investor letter. Why?
Cant help but think we are in phase 2 of the diagram below ... bear market rally ... I am still long and strong TSLA but i think there is Macro pain ahead .
I think we might see some TSLA buying opportunities in the months ahead ... falling tide impacts all boats... i am prepping for this selling some weak long term positions
No bear market that I see from my portfolio.
I literally could have disconnected from the internet and TV from March till now and not have noticed anything unusual. Seems like nothing ever happened.
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