Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bdy0627]

I think nobody believes Elon anymore. His bold claims have come back to bite him in the ass. And Tesla is going so far against the grain from a technology standpoint for FSD, a strategy literally no one else is adopting, that it just isn’t believable that they’re going to accomplish FSD.

Even as a long term shareholder and Tesla fanboy, autopilot is cool and everything but I don’t think they can do FSD. The system is still fairly rudimentary and the experience has not been compelling enough to warrant FSD discussion. Just the promise that it might one day make it there via software. I have my doubts.

You know a few years back they said you couldn't land rockets and reuse them. It wasn't pretty early on as SpaceX tried to figure it out. There were crashes and explosions but they kept making progress. It didn't happen overnight but here we are. Landing rockets is now routine. I don't know any more about creating a FSD system than I do about landing rockets, but I have seen substantial progress in Autopilot over the last couple of years. The divorce from MobilEye was a hiccup that delayed things several years, but it looks like Tesla is making solid progress now after replacing the MobilEye vision system with their own. I'm excited to see how it's working with the new computer. I believe (it really is a belief right now) that Tesla IS further along than just about everyone thinks they are. I'm not saying that I think we will all be sleeping in our cars next year, but I think there is going to be a large step jump in the technology over the next 18 months.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

The system is still fairly rudimentary

...Compared to what? I’ve taken several trips on freeways with no human interaction other than just passively holding the wheel. Even using it on surface streets, I only have to take over at stop lights when nobody is ahead of me and turns at intersections(even those only due to intentional restrictions in the software).

Nobody else is anywhere near where Tesla is in terms of generalized self driving(i.e. outside tightly geofences areas), even just in terms of what normal customers have. If AP/NoA are rudimentary then everyone else’s systems are downright primitive or nonexistent.

 

[M3Rider]

Selling back to the grid is less profitable than using your own power in many places.

I don't sell. My extra in the over-producing months goes to my "bank", which I can use in under-producing months. So, if your system is sized appropriately, there's no need to save anything to the battery. And Tesla had to work w/ utility company to get my 12-months usage, because they are not allowed to give you more than 10-15% plus panels than your usage - so you can't really over-produce by a lot.

 

[Mike Smith]

'Hello everyone! This time I went to the Tesla Shanghai site, and there was no big change in the outside observation and last time. The first phase of the project is still at the top of the installation and laying. Most of the construction workers are busy on the roof of the steel frame, there are roofing panels, welded steel bars, and roof steel structural brackets. We can see that the workers have taken good safety measures. A publicity card on safety production was also erected inside, and the first phase of the project was carried out in an orderly manner. Empty shots can be seen, the cranes on the construction site look a lot, arranged in various locations on the construction site, which is also a lot of netizens surprised. A netizen from the United States saw the previous video saying that at the GIGAfactory site in the United States, they only saw three cranes at work. Obviously, compared with the number of China, the disparity is a bit big. Now that it is very close to May, the Tesla Shanghai Super Factory is about to be built, and we are paying close attention. What the compensation here is saying is that as the external construction of the project is coming to an end, the shooting on the spot has become more and more difficult. The security personnel who are patrolling at any time on the construction site will stop being warned when they see someone shooting. I have been warned twice. I don't know if gigafactory in the US is the same. Ok, thank you all! I wish you all a happy! ! !'

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

How is it stupid?

They did what was required of them. From investors standpoint that was good. 75% of parts shared = efficiencies in production and no wild promises that would cause them to struggle with some new issues and disappoint a bunch of customers.
I'm sure they will sell just like promised, S+X+3 numbers combined. Not his fault that SP didn't take off, out of his control.

Oh sorry, it was the deliveries report on 4/3 that screwed me, by Tesla reporting after the market closed. The Model Y reveal was just kind of lame. The Model Y itself isn't stupid.

 

[mongo]

Busy week coming up:
22nd: Autonomous Investor day (if dip then buy)
23rd: Deadline expires for redactions of the April 4th hearing transcript https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/7946295/united-states-securities-and-exchange-commission-v-musk/ Hopefully, transcript follows shortly thereafter
24th: Q1 report

 

[oneday]

Busy week coming up:
22nd: Autonomous Investor day (if dip then buy)
23rd: Deadline expires for redactions of the April 4th hearing transcript https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/7946295/united-states-securities-and-exchange-commission-v-musk/ Hopefully, transcript follows shortly thereafter
24th: Q1 report

Also today is the deadline for the joint letter from Musk and SEC.

Will the SEC and Musk be able to come to an agreement?
If they can’t, the Judge will have to provide a ruling.

No way to know, but I think a lot of the institutional selling could be because of this SEC cloud. We could have resolution today or it could still be a couple months out.

 

[lklundin]

How many Teslas do you think are on the latest ship? Here's one calculation.

The draft of the ship increased by 1.3 meters

1.3 meters = 4.27 feet

Length and beam of the ship is 199.94 x 32.26 meters

199.94 x 32.26=6449 sq. meters

6449 sq. meters= 69,416 sq. ft.

Increase in displacement

69,416 sq ft x4.27 ft = 296,406 cu ft

water weights 62.4 lb/cu ft

296,406 cu ft x 62.4 lb/cu ft = 18,495,734 lb

I we assume that at area of the ship at the water line is only 90% of the overall dimension to allow for some slope at the bow and stern then the increased displacement becomes (SWAG):

18,495,734 lb x 90%= 16,646,160 lb increased displacement

If the average weight of M3 is 3900 lb

16,646,160 lb/3900 lb per vehicle = 4268 vehicles

Possible errors/poor assumptions:

• Area of ship at waterline vs overall dimensions at 90%
• Weight of vehicles and mix of vehicles
• Other items loaded than Teslas
• Rounding errors. I should have used a piece of paper.
• I used the density of fresh water instead of salt water but the difference should not be significant considering the other assumptions made.

Here's a starting point for the discussion. I welcome any gentle comments/corrections. It would be great if this were anywhere close to being correct.

Interesting estimate. Can it be known whether during the change in draft the ship was taking on fuel?

Otherwise the number is probably a pretty good upper limit.

PS. Without wanting to gloat too much, I will just redo the estimated weight change in metric units with the above assumptions:
199.94m x 32.26m x 1.3m x 0.9 x 1k kg / m^3 = 7.5M kg. The average exported Model 3 probably weighs 1.77k kg, for a weight change equivalent to 7.5M/1.77k, i.e. just under 4.3k Model 3s.
PPS. With salt water having a higher density that fresh water, the displacement corresponds to a greater weight taken on board, about 3%.

 

[sandervl]

Were screwed. VW says diesel vehicle making a Renaissance.

Volkswagen Leader Mueller Foresees A Diesel Renaissance

The article is over a year old. Mueller has been replaced already.

 

[KarenRei]

There are a number of routes I regularly drive during warm weather and can average 275-285 kWh/mi.

During the cold spells those same routes can average 380-410 kWh/mi

That was, of course, not the data I asked you for. I asked for your actually measured (not estimated) full cycle summer range and your measured (not estimated) full cycle winter range - not Wh/mi figures for some fractional cycle. If you don't know why I'm asking you for actual ranges using as much of a full charge as you can, rather than a simple Wh/mi figures, then you won't understand the problem with your range estimation method (the short of it: energy consumption is higher earlier in a trip than toward the end of a trip)

 

[KSilver2000]

With a net-metering plan and time of use plan, selling back to the grid and high price and pulling out at low price at night is the winning combination. Also to compensate for feast+famine, i.e. January generating 20kWh/day compared to May 60kWh/day. The only moment you really miss out is if over the year you produced more than you consumed, then they screw you and call it giving you wholesale pricing instead of retail, meaning they charge/credit $0.13 at night, $0.25 at day, $0.45 at peak all year, but leftovers at the end of the year are suddenly named wholesale pricing and pay out only $0.03 per kWh. So you try to kind of break even over the year without having to worry about the difference in monthly production over the year. Its a really sweet deal really.

For those like myself that did not opt out of 3rd party generation, excess production is paid out at about $0.06/kWH. Still not much, but better than PG&E. As long as net energy metering is around, and you don’t have to worry about blackouts, really no point in getting Powerwall from a financial perspective. You can’t completely go off-grid anyways either (because of regulation and it’d be hard to generate enough in the winter unless you have a solar farm—at least in northern CA).

 

[bpjod]

There's nothing wrong for calling for accurate numbers. Pretending that "winter highway driving halves the range" when in the worst realistic driving case outside of extreme climates (Minnesota in the winter in -20F / -29C) you're actually getting the range 2/3rds (sub-300 vs. around 200) does nobody any favours. Two thirds is not one half.

The loss of range in cold weather absolutely should be discussed. It's a very significant factor to owners in places with cold winters - your 300-mile-car becomes a 200-mile-car in a Minnesota January. But it shouldn't be discussed with hyperbole - e.g. as though a 300-mile-car becomes a 150 mile car, or worse, that this happens in any below-freezing weather. Don't you agree that it's important to give accurate numbers?

Here's accurate numbers. My range was halved. Alberta winters and mountains can do that to you. Don't want to run out of charge in those locations either...

 

[scaesare]

That was, of course, not the data I asked you for. I asked for your actually measured (not estimated) full cycle summer range and your measured (not estimated) full cycle winter range - not Wh/mi figures for some fractional cycle.

Yes I know it's not what you asked for. It's usages that I can replicate. And they correlate to trips I've taken using a significant portion of my pack under those circumstances.

Do you have first hand data that contradicts this with your Tesla?

If you don't know why I'm asking you for actual ranges using as much of a full charge as you can, rather than a simple Wh/mi figures, then you won't understand the problem with your range estimation method (the short of it: energy consumption is higher earlier in a trip than toward the end of a trip)

Yes, I know exactly how it behaves... I've been driving this Model S for 6 years now.

I'll point out, that in my earlier reply to you (that you've opted to not respond to), the issue of the significant impact the cold is in stop-and-go driving, despite the fact that you seem to have wanted to limit the conversation to just long highway trips.

I've got news for you: the weather doesn't care if you are road-tripping vs. multi-point daily driving.

That's the whole point of this discussion: more range is needed in the cold. If you want to try and make the argument that the impact is more for stop-n-go, then you are really just underscoring that it's an issue.

 

[Car In Ray]

TSLA stock price: stuck in neutral for almost 5 years. Yet these threads have thousands of post, people pouring over information to make decision that so far have not been profitable.

Don't you miss your kids? Don't you miss being productive at your jobs?

 

[KSilver2000]

Busy week coming up:
22nd: Autonomous Investor day (if dip then buy)
23rd: Deadline expires for redactions of the April 4th hearing transcript
24th: Q1 report

I have a strong belief it will dip with the Q1 report. Nothing that I’ve seen or read leads me to believe there will be a surprise positive. Not that it’s not possible, just that the scenario for a dip is more likely.

 

[elasalle]

TSLA stock price: stuck in neutral for almost 5 years. Yet these threads have thousands of post, people pouring over information to make decision that so far have not been profitable.

Don't you miss your kids? Don't you miss being productive at your jobs?

Ok KarenRei <Car In Ray> IceLand (EyesLand) ... we get it ... and off to Ignore List

 

[durkie]

TSLA stock price: stuck in neutral for almost 5 years. Yet these threads have thousands of post, people pouring over information to make decision that so far have not been profitable.

Don't you miss your kids? Don't you miss being productive at your jobs?

not profitable for who? don't put your regrets on us

 

[Antares Nebula]

Once-hailed 'Tesla Killer' Audi e-tron slows down production to just 6 hrs/day: report

"The Audi e-tron, once dubbed by avid Tesla critics as a potential “Tesla Killer,” is reportedly running into production problems due to a constrained supply of batteries and a slower-than-expected delivery of electric motors. These production problems have reportedly caused Audi to postpone the release of its upcoming all-electric car, the e-tron Sportback, to 2020, roughly a year later than its intended 2019 release date."

 

[lklundin]

It is definitely bizarre. I can't understand how they think that Waymo could scale their FSD up faster than Tesla can. Millions of FSD capable cars on the road by the time Waymo starts rolling cars out.

Waymo is riding on the success that is Google, the company so clever that it is hard to describe in one sentence.

 

[Leo9]

TSLA stock price: stuck in neutral for almost 5 years. Yet these threads have thousands of post, people pouring over information to make decision that so far have not been profitable.

Don't you miss your kids? Don't you miss being productive at your jobs?

No.