Q2 '18 predates my investment in TSLA -- what is the prevailing theory as to why the stock price reaction was so violently positive?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Q2 '18 predates my investment in TSLA -- what is the prevailing theory as to why the stock price reaction was so violently positive?
SpudLime
Active Member
@SpudLime
wasn't it fun swiping your credit card twice when you hit the $75 limit during fillups a few years back
OH man that brings back frustrating memories. I went so far as to research why the pumps did that. The employees at the gas station never knew an answer. I called my CC company and they said there is no limit. I got ahold of the company that services a lot of pumps CC authorizations and its THAT company that had the limit.
I ended up filling up with a 1/4 tank left to avoid that BS.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I wasn't following TSLA that closely … but EM apologized for calling Toni Sacconaghi's questions "boring, bonehead" in the Q1 ER when the SP went down by 5%
Tesla shares surge as upbeat Musk sees profitable second half
On a more serious note, Tesla said they had achieved 5k/wk production.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Answer: it depends on 1, 2, and 3.
INVESTOR EVENT
1 is a big question. There hasn’t been much of a runup into it. If good stuff is shown, we’ll see positive pressure on the stock—not just a temporary pop. If it’s disappointing, maybe slight negative, but I don’t see the stock dropping significantly if the investor day doesn’t impress.
Here’s the TPI (Todd Probability Index) for the investor event:
Big drop: 5% - Elon, is this a joke?
Small drop: 20% - ok, summon is neat but I’ve seen that already
Small rise: 60% - stoplights and intersections, but lots of intervention
Large rise: 15% - FSD demo with relatively small number of interventions—or solid demo showing path to this in the short term.
Q1 ER
Frankly I think a lot of the negative of 2 is baked in. It’s why we’re down here in the $270s in the first place. Given virtually everyone is expecting bad numbers already, we might see a slight downward influence (rest is baked in)—but if the ER has some good info in it, we might actually see the price go back UP, because Q1 is in the past now.
TPI for Q1 ER:
Big drop: 5% (wow, it’s worse than even we thought and there’s no good news on the horizon)
Small drop: 40% (yep, it was bad but there’s hope for Q2)
Small rise: 40% (yeah that was bad but good news on the horizon)
Large rise: 15% (wow, better than we thought and good stuff coming!)
SEC
I don’t see much if any downside risk to this. They will likely complete their agreement and we’ll go back to business as usual, hopefully with Elon being more careful about his tweets. Judge already seemed to be siding with Musk if they can’t agree, but I think they’ll hash out their agreement.
TPI for SEC Closure
Large drop: 2%: unexpected Elon smackdown!
Small drop: 5%
Small rise: 53%
Large rise: 40%
All things considered, I’m expecting the stock to be higher at the conclusion of all of these events.
(Disclaimer: I just made up the TPI a few short minutes ago. I am also not 100% at predicting the future yet, but I’m working in it.)
If I were you, If stock recover somewhat then sell a call against your holding at higher strike then your holdings up course this will limit your profit if stock goes way up.
People knowing Q2 was going to be bad, so they wanted to "get it out of the way" before jumping back in for Q3. That basically results in a 'sell the rumor, buy the news' scenario.
may I suggest a simplified / abbreviated form for the highlighted part: s/h/it
as in combination of s/he and it...
*ducks and hides*
Sounds almost like what Bjorn says after he records how he wrecks his new M3. Only he makes the middle part sound longer.
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
An upgraded NN with ver 3.0 brings about full frame + increased frame rate.
What this potentially translate to in vision is then you can do sub pixel accuracy measurements. So a car far away that ap usually don't detect can now be accounted for.
The most important part is the increase in frame rate. We will see a more confident ap who will have a smoother transition between breaking and accelerating. Every transition will be smoother.
The disengagement event should still be as usual as that depends on the NN evolutions and this takes time.
Depending on how much compute powers were freed up, AP might have free cycles to do more stuff now. Lije read the traffic light. Track stopped cars persistenly as they transition between edges of the cameras
Well demand might be a problem, but they don't want to talk about that...
Krugerrand
Meow
There was another Model Y design at that time. He got talked out of it for the current version that has a lot more in common with the 3. And aren’t we all glad? You should be praising that change of direction.
When it became clear it was cheaper to make all 3s with a glass roof, that’s what they decided to do.
You know, it’s perfectly okay to make a plan and then change the plan when a better idea presents itself. That’s what happened in both those cases and they were smart choices to make. It would be stupid to sabotage the company so that anthonyj wouldn’t have something inconsequential to criticize.
Krugerrand
Meow
You’re not a very persuasive person. Hint: Start by letting him drive your car.
Krugerrand
Meow
Stop using common sense. It makes other people look stupid and that’s not nice.
Radpioneer
Looking for my next car...... my first EV....
And that the Charge that may take a bit more time....only costs 1/3 the amount of gas.
Krugerrand
Meow
Mildly OT
Fully Charged has captured the Ford self-charging survival strategy. There is some high humor and some tragedy in this one.
Fully Charged has captured the Ford self-charging survival strategy. There is some high humor and some tragedy in this one.
Krugerrand
Meow
I walk in.
I ask for manager.
I ask if the charger is available for use (not that I could ever see a reason to need to plug into a destination charger at a ‘fast food’ joint - by its very nature I’m in and out ‘fast’ even if I decide to sit inside and eat.)
I’m much more likely to go in, order my food for take out, go pee, and then drive down the street with my bag of Arby’s and eat it in the car while I supercharge. Yes, I am. That’s real world, right there.
My response to the question is determined by the answer to the question. But I assure you, if I need a 10min destination charge that bad at his Arby’s, I’ll have the right words and facial expression to acquire it regardless of any coneage. I have mad skills that way.
An "Agreement in Principle" often connotes extended negotiations to craft the detailed Definitive Agreement (that the judge seems to be seeking to rid her docket of future controversies about this matter).
Thumper
Active Member
This gentleman could easily solve his problem by adding Tesla wall chargers or 14-50 outlets at all of the stores he owns. Problem solved.
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