Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elliott82]

F*ck it, bought one more TSLA! Don’t tell my wife...

 

[EVNow]

They may not be demand limited, but a with a wagen they'd not have to offer SR+, just LR AWD and it would sell like made, add really good demand and displace cheaper cars.

S is a hatchback - or wagon if you will.

If you want a bigger wagon, which we call SUV, its coming next year.

Either way, there isn't enough demand for LR "wagon" in EU than demand for SR+ in US & China (and EU). Not even close.

 

[jerry33]

There _might_ be some kind of public outcry when an autonomous car crashes into a young child and the young child dies, but I suspect that clear video evidence of an unattended child giving the vehicle little-to-no time to react would rapidly redirect public anger at the parent.

Based on the demonstration, I'd think there would be almost no chance of this happening to a very young child. An older child chasing a ball or something would be more likely (although training the system to recognize this should be not all that hard). My main concern in this area is deer and other animals. Deer especially like to leap in front of cars and I'm concerned that the cameras won't see them in time to avoid their random jumps. (Which is why I really want thermal sensors so that if deer are recognized anywhere within about 100 metres the car slows down so it can stop almost instantly.)

 

[Nocturnal]

At the risk of sounding insensitive, FSD needs to accomplish two things:
1. Ensure that the risk of harm to a human either inside the FSD Tesla or outside it is 2-3x lower than a human driver.
2. Ensure that any remaining collisions that occur are NOT the fault of the FSD computer. (If someone runs a red light, hits the FSD Tesla, it's not the FSD computer's fault. In time, the likelihood of the FSD computer preventing such a collision despite it not being at fault will increase, which will improve task #1 of reducing the likelihood of injury.)

There are a ton of edge cases, for sure, say people deciding to lay down in the middle of the street (I've seen it before), people falling out of vehicles, etc. Most of these are general obstacle avoidance. Other edge cases involve road construction or damage. I think level 4 plus remote "instruction" to the cars will be quite possible within the next year to two years.

Just eliminated drunk/drugged/sleepy driving will make FSD twice as safe. Really FSD just needs to be as good as an average person and it will be way safer.

Tesla truck will be a niche product. Elon said this many times. It is going to be extremely large, weird/cool, and probably very expensive

For that matter Rivian's vehicles will be niche products too. The "well off Dentist that likes to go kayaking with his family on the weekend" crowd.

S is a hatchback - or wagon if you will.

If you want a bigger wagon, which we call SUV, its coming next year.

Either way, there isn't enough demand for LR "wagon" in EU than demand for SR+ in US & China (and EU). Not even close.

BMW has offered 3 series wagons in the US for years....nobody buys them.

 

[EVNow]

I’m really hoping they look at the capital raise idea floated here by @neroden. A great way to reward investors and, especially with short interest where it is, crush shorts.

Musk should tell Wall St - he will only raise capital when the SP is above $400. They will make it happen

 

[Dutchie]

What is this latest insanity from CNBC? Tesla cars are “quite old”?!

Tesla cars are now 'quite old' and the exclusive brand is at risk, analyst says

All this talk about competition coming. IMHO the advantage Tesla has is only increasing. Remember when I-Pace came out ("bye bye Tesla..")? Jaguar is only selling a handful of these:

Audi E-Tron? Dead on arrival, huge manufacturing issues

I was hoping Porsche Taycan could make some dent with the ability of sustained high speed needed for Autobahn driving and their high charging. With the new - more efficient and less heat producing - drivetrain of the Model S that advantage has probably gone too;

Mercedes EQC, for what I have seen, it is laughable;

Hyundai Kona and Kia Niro: huge manufacturing issues

Even IC cars like the new BMW 3 aren't selling. The Model 3 has a much better proposition

 

[mongo]

Based on the demonstration, I'd think there would be almost no chance of this happening to a very young child. An older child chasing a ball or something would be more likely (although training the system to recognize this should be not all that hard). My main concern in this area is deer and other animals. Deer especially like to leap in front of cars and I'm concerned that the cameras won't see them in time to avoid their random jumps. (Which is why I really want thermal sensors so that if deer are recognized anywhere within about 100 metres the car slows down so it can stop almost instantly.)

I understand the thought, but that is a standard drivers who are not riders will not allow. Good luck getting anywhere in (non-metro) Michigan with that level of conservativeness. (night time phantom breaking). Plus, deer will jump/ run full speed into the side of your car.

 

[green48]

Can someone help me understand the cash-flow from every marginal vehicle sold?

I get that if customers buy a car with cash, Tesla gets the entire fee upfront, but how about with loans?

If I take out a loan through the Tesla website, how much cash does Tesla receive and when?

I see there's a $7500 down payment on model 3 vehicles, so I assume they get that entire sum upon delivery.

How about the remainder? Is Tesla on the hook if someone fails to make a car payment?

Or does Tesla trade that risk right away to some financial institution in exchange for upfront cash?

 

[kyzhk]

Looks like AP side collision avoidance:

Raghu Konka on Twitter

 

[kyzhk]

Can someone help me understand the cash-flow from every marginal vehicle sold?

I get that if customers buy a car with cash, Tesla gets the entire fee upfront, but how about with loans?

If I take out a loan through the Tesla website, how much cash does Tesla receive and when?

I see there's a $7500 down payment on model 3 vehicles, so I assume they get that entire sum upon delivery.

How about the remainder? Is Tesla on the hook if someone fails to make a car payment?

Or does Tesla trade that risk right away to some financial institution in exchange for upfront cash?

When a consumer apply for a loan to buy a Tesla, the bank pays tesla in cash up front.

I think you are confusing leasing vs car loan (purchase to own).

 

[Dave EV]

Lack of ownership.
You don't go from 'maybe profit' to $700M loss in a month or two without: raising hand, acknowledging that you screwed up, why you screwed up, and what are you going to do to not screw up again.
If you think you heard that, we live in different worlds. What I heard was spin and excuses, and excuses don't matter at their level. Explanation is useful, but explanation is not an excuse.

I heard exactly that:
1. A large number of deliveries were pushed into Q2 because of shipping delays.
2. Going forward, they are going to avoid the end-of-quarter push, which will smooth out deliveries. An EOQ push can mean a big quarterly miss if something unexpected comes up causing a delay in deliveries, so smoothing things out will even out quarterly numbers, but more importantly, I think everyone realizes that a boom/bust cycle of deliveries is really hard on employees and quality also suffers as a result.

I do think that there's one big unanswered question:
Given that Q2 was earlier projected to be profitable, why is this no longer the case despite a significant number of Q1 deliveries slipping to Q2?

 

[neroden]

Just eliminated drunk/drugged/sleepy driving will make FSD twice as safe. Really FSD just needs to be as good as an average person

I've laid out elsewhere (autonomy day thread IIRC) why this is not sufficient for public acceptance of driverless cars

 

[KSilver2000]

Tesla truck will be a niche product. Elon said this many times. It is going to be extremely large, weird/cool, and probably very expensive

I don’t buy that. He also said many more things that weren’t true. Id take everything he says with some salt. Didn’t he seem to also have a change of heart regarding raising capital?

1 million people around the world every year. That’s how many people bought just the Ford F truck at an average price of about $50K. And almost 12 million light trucks in the US alone in 2018. More than twice the number of other car sales.
Just reflect on that figure.

It’s not something Musk should be thinking to go into with a niche product. With the rise of CUV’s, though not to the level of trucks yet, there’s a reason why other brands are eliminating or reducing production of sedans.

 

[schonelucht]

We are only a few dollars away from the floor on the Maxwell share conversion. May complicate getting enough shareholders to pledge.

 

[dc_h]

I couldn't possibly care less about S/X demand, it's all about the main product to me. Today that's the M3 and demand still appears to be far stronger than their ability to deliver. Pump em out. Once the Y comes out, I will rejoice in M3 demand falling off a cliff as the newest product takes over the world.

To me, that should be Tesla's role in the automotive world. Pushing marketplace evolution, not looking to incrementally dominate every category. From an investment standpoint, we will truly begin to profit once Tesla is the largest energy company in the US. There's no real money in just making cars.

Restoring baseline demand for the S/X is important, at least for now. At 25,000 per quarter, that is probably about 500 million in FCF. I think the S & X should continue to be a solid 1 to 2 billion revenue source. Perhaps they'll build an SUV on the pickup platform at some point and either redo the X, or build an SUV like the Mercedes G class. I don't think that would eat into the X much, but would be a big money maker. 25,000 G type SUV would be a bracket buster.
If global 3 demand is about 500,000 and Y is 1 million, they still need more cars to be a 2, 3 and 4 million a year car company. S &X should be a solid 100,000 a year brand pair. The pickup if done right, could be a 500k a year or more vehicle. A luxury SUV based on a truck platform could be a $150,000 or $200,000 car and sell 50,000 a year.
For 2020 they should exit with the S3XY + P & R & Semi. If they get all that moving, they may be able to start work on a compact car, maybe a Model 2 for 25,000 to start in 2022. They just need to grind out Q2 and stabilize the cash balance over 2.5 and rising. If they exit 2019 with over 4 billion, the shorts only story will be we hate Elon, Elon very bad man. With FSD announcements and progress and Shanghai coming online in Q4, hopefully they will finally start to lose their control of the media messaging.

Tesla 2020 Exit production rate:

1. Model Y: 500,000 to 1,000,000
2. Model 3: 500,000 to 700,000
3. Model P: 100,000
4. Model S: 50,000
5. Model X: 50,000
6. Roadster: 25,000
7. Semi: Wildcard 5000 to 20,000

Tesla 2021

1. Model Y: 750,000 (45 billion @60k ASP)
2. Model 3: 500,000 (25 billion @50K ASP)
3. Model P: 100,000 (8 billion @80K ASP)
4. Model S/X: 100,000 (9 billion @90K ASP)
5. Roadster: 25,000 (6.5 billion @250k+ ASP)
6. Semi: 5000 (1.25 billion @ 250K ASP)
7. Total: 73.625 billion

I think the above numbers are generally conservative and recognize demand and production side risks. I think there will continue to be a steady trickle of good news and announcements, like we've seen with the FSD and SX refresh. Pricing stability going forward and improved fundamentals. I also think the announcement that they've ordered production systems for the Y implies they may have a plan to move production up to earlier 2020 and will bring Shanghai Y online at approximately the same time. I would guess the 3 line will also produce the Y in China. That is part of the big reduction in production buildout costs.

 

[bdy0627]

Then you’ll miss opportunities to buy in even lower like today.

I think he went all in on J21 LEAPs a few weeks ago. Probably a good idea to just avoid looking at those for now.

 

[MP3Mike]

My eternal complaint with Tesla is refusing to offer a wagon S or 3. They may not be demand limited, but a with a wagen they'd not have to offer SR+, just LR AWD and it would sell like made, add really good demand and displace cheaper cars.

Wait, haven't you been saying that Tesla shouldn't be making any vehicles with large batteries because it is a waste of battery resources, and now you want them to make a wagon version that would be less efficient and require even more battery capacity to maintain the same range?

 

[Nocturnal]

I've laid out elsewhere (autonomy day thread IIRC) why this is not sufficient for public acceptance of driverless cars

What's your TLDR version? If you cut the number of traffic deaths from 37k a year to 15k a year that's not enough? I know people are generally not very bright and will treat FSD deaths differently, but 50% is a huge drop.

 

[bdy0627]

Interesting, NOVA not showing any M3 inventory with 200 miles search

Same with Chicago, which was showing 14 yesterday and 11 this morning. Hmmm. S and X are still at where they were earlier. Something's going on there and it seems unlikely that they suddenly sold all of those this morning.

 

[EVNow]

Based on the demonstration,

Did I miss a demonstration ?