Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AlexS]

Elon Musk exercises Tesla options for 175,000 fresh shares

 

[jerry33]

The base price for Model S is now only $15K higher than it was in 2013... it's actually surprising they managed to run so many price increases in the past. (If I want to be fairer, the current base model S is slightly cheaper in inflation-adjusted terms than the barebones S60 was.)

This is as I've always told people when they ask if the price will go down with time. It's like a computer. The price you pay will be about the same for each model of Tesla, but you will get more for your money as time goes on.

 

[neroden]

Not all news is good news.

Are you sure about that?

When people are still asking "What company makes Teslas?", maybe all news is good news...

 

[K_Dizzle]

So, we're now down ~2% after hours... Just the false report by AP, or something else?

EDIT: Oh, and I see ABC is now also reporting the false numbers.

Actually Elon exercised some options after hours, the shorts are saying it’s because of his margin call.

 

[X Fan]

Can someone advise what’s up with Charley Grant from WSJ...his last few articles have been quite inflammatory.

 

[JusRelax]

Elon Musk exercises Tesla options for 175,000 fresh shares

It all makes sense now... he's been intentionally tanking the stock in order to have a higher % ownership!

 

[MP3Mike]

Whoa there. Citation please?

Dealer Franchise laws prevent OTA updates?

What is the car industry’s problem with over-the-air software updates?

General Motors has announced plans to offer over-the-air (OTA) software updates "before 2020." The company's CEO, Mary Barra, announced the plan on an analyst call on Tuesday. The capability will require the deployment of a new electric vehicle architecture and a new infotainment system. OTA updates are high on the tech-savvy car buyer's wishlist, but here in the US, most new cars are locked out of receiving them thanks to a legal and contractual landscape between the OEMs and their dealer networks that is highly beneficial to the latter.

It's not a technical issue; companies like Harman and others have the right systems to push out OTA updates to vehicles; the OEMs just aren't allowed to deploy them.

Boiled down to its essence, OEMs can't offer existing customers new features for their vehicles without the car dealerships getting their cut. This is in contrast to Tesla, which has done much to highlight the utility of OTA updates.

 

[JusRelax]

Actually Elon exercised some options after hours, the shorts are saying it’s because of his margin call.

Can someone explain to me how this would make sense? I don't understand.

 

[Artful Dodger]

the media dutifully bit, especially CNBC which may be the most upset with Tesla for not providing advertising dollars or interviewees.

If CNBC needs an interview, I say send'em Kimball. "He's rested, he's ready".

 

[azaz]

Are you sure about that?

When people are still asking "What company makes Teslas?", maybe all news is good news...

when my car was in service last week the Lyft driver taking me to the service center asked if it was a hybrid and was wowed by the concept of charging at home on a regular plug

 

[K_Dizzle]

Can someone explain to me how this would make sense? I don't understand.

Added collateral for his margin. It’s not a lot of shares

 

[jerry33]

Actually Elon exercised some options after hours, the shorts are saying it’s because of his margin call.

My understanding is that he won't get margin called until the stock reaches $35.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Actually Elon exercised some options after hours, the shorts are saying it’s because of his margin call.

Im probably missing something.... why would a margin call result in him buying shares?

 

[mongo]

Elon Musk exercises Tesla options for 175,000 fresh shares

Wow, he has 4.6 million shares worth of vested options!
Margin call my shiny metal bottom.

 

[hcdavis3]

What makes you think an ad campaign would be effective when for every one Tesla ad there will be ten to twenty hit pieces? Unless they have one on each commercial segment during each hit piece newscast--something they can't afford to do and still grow.

Some informational videos (on the site and youtube) would be good. (Not just the cars driving through snow--I really want the paint they use on those cars which stays perfectly clean regardless of dust, snow, or rain.)

I’m curious as to what you think Tesla should do in the short run. You Tube? Really? The bullshit in the news would completely steer me away from Tesla if I was a prospective buyer. Why do you think there will be a million hit pieces to counter Tesla’s advertising. I’ll take one ad with a ton of hit pieces any day. A friend today saw my model 3 and was absolutely shocked when I told him the price. He assumed the starting price was 60k. How else does Tesla counter that? Before I retired I was the Sonos rep here in NE. Our company took Sonos from zero to three quarters of a million dollars in a few short years. Yes we were great sales people, but we couldn’t have done it without Sonos advertising. When we started nobody knew anything about Sonos. The only thing people hear about Tesla is that it’s going down again for the umpteenth consecutive year.

 

[jerry33]

Can someone explain to me how this would make sense? I don't understand.

If it's from a short, why would it have to make sense?

 

[mongo]

Actually Elon exercised some options after hours, the shorts are saying it’s because of his margin call.

He exercised the options and paid the taxes and did not sell any shares, per the @AlexS link.
That is the opposite of being short on cash.

 

[neroden]

Elon is completely acting as if he doesn't believe, but knows that Tesla will be first to FSD. I just hope that @neroden isn't correct in predicting that Elon's overconfidence may be causing him to overlook difficulties with FSD regarding driving policy.

I'm correct, unfortunately.

Tesla will probably still be first, just waaaaay behind Elon's timelines. Waaaaaay behind.

 

[jerry33]

A friend today saw my model 3 and was absolutely shocked when I told him the price. He assumed the starting price was 60k. How else does Tesla counter that?

One person at a time. That's how I've been doing it for the past six plus years. I estimate that at least 3,500 people have sat in the driver's seat of my S85 (not driven though--insurance doesn't allow that). No idea how many went on to purchase, but I'd be surprised if it was less than 5%.

 

[Doggydogworld]

What makes this evident to you? How could you share enough information to make it evident to us? I know you've been around here much longer than I have, and you may be right. But so far you've just been repeating hearsay and cautioning that Tesla's public goals are "way too optimistic" — not very convincing.

Maybe it depends on what you call "production"? I'll suggest one way Tesla might get Shanghai up and running: General Assembly. We're told that it took about 15 days to bring up the Fremont sprung-structure mostly-manual GA line for Model 3. Allow 30 days in a brand-new plant. Heck, allow 60. Meanwhile start shipping parts from Fremont — more expensive than sourcing them locally, but cheaper than shipping assembled vehicles. If the Shanghai factory floor is ready by the end of June, why couldn't it be running a GA-only line within 4-8 weeks?

Paint, maybe. There was some argument earlier this year about whether Tesla would ship panels to Shanghai, or BIW, or painted bodies. I'm not sure what the right answer is. If Shanghai GA needs a local paint shop, how long might that take?

Of course GA is only GA. So in parallel, work on setting up parts production in Shanghai. Also work on getting parts delivered straight to Shanghai, instead of going through Fremont. As various components become available, stop shipping those parts from Fremont. That's certainly a more complex series of projects — and maybe that's where your "person in charge" comes in?

I originally thought Shanghai would assemble painted bodies shipped from Fremont and battery packs/drive units shipped from Nevada. They might still use that approach for a couple months to train final assembly line workers and work out the supply chain and parts handling logistics. Meanwhile they'd be installing and testing the body and paint shop, as well as the module/pack assembly equipment. Paint shops especially are notorious for taking a long time to install and calibrate.