Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MarcusMaximus]

1, 2, and 3 have always been fine for me.
4 was over six years ago, so anything I have to say about it isn't relevant.
5. Does need work.

On #2 and 3, this is causing a large amount of pain right now with the yellow banding issue on the S/X screens. Every person who reaches out to service seems to get a completely different answer about what the problem is, whether they can currently solve it, what the solution is, and whether they’ll replace the screen.

 

[BornToFly]

I had ordered a new Model S P100DL at the end of April. I had to cancel that order today (delivery was going to be next Tuesday) and place a new order to get the carbon fiber decor that I wanted (I was told the carbon fiber wasn't available Special Order anymore, even though someone else on the Tesla Forum was able to order it, and now it is a standard order option). The reservation number on todays order is almost exactly 50,000 higher than one month ago. I don't know if order number are sequential, but I would assume so. That means they have had 50,000 orders in the last 30 days.

 

[Fred42]

Tesla doesn't do things the traditional way.

*sugar* ships when ready. This 2nd refresh may very well be true.

Raven was ready early in 2019, and interior/battery pack may be ready late in the year.

If I was in the market I would want Raven plus battery pack upgrade with current interior.

The possibility of a 2nd S/X inventory write-down in 2019 seems unfortunate.

I would agree about the interior if it were just a repeat of the 3. Electrek says it may have an instrument panel in front of the driver, and better interior materials, and comfier seats. i hope it's true, who knows.

I note Electrek's article on the CNBC article didn't repeat the part about longer range.

 

[SPadival]

Quarterly guidance should always be conservative, and they should consistently beat it.

This is how you manage investor confidence in your company.

Ugh, this is basic stuff.

Expecting Elon Musk to change based on what you think is right is just insanity. Excerpt from Ashlee Vance book:

As a shareholder, I am fine with this approach and I don't want him to change. It does not make sense to have a tight internal goal and a loose externally published timeline because the employees will realise that they will get additional time and slack off.

F Wall Street and their short sighted and short term view - Worst idea to force a square peg into a round hole.

 

[AcesDealt]

I find the apologetics about missed timelines and estimates to be pure rationalization. Planning and decisions are built on an accurate prediction about the future. Any mild effect on 'motivation' by having an almost always wrong overestimate is transient and unreliable. It allows people to make bad decisions and then say 'well I was basing it on this [false] number you guided us for'.

It's almost as bad as the rationalization often given that Tesla's real mission is sustainable energy or what not whenever Tesla has to e.g. reduce prices to make more sales. No one should be confused by this. Even if sustainability is the long-term objective, Elon properly believes that short-term profit is the best way to maximize the impact of that long-term mission, such that if he can sell 2 cars for 10k$ total profit or 1 car for 12k$ he will pick the latter. And if they lower prices and say 'well that's just to advance our mission' they are talking out their bazookas.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Please send this to all medias , blogs, forums like cnn, cnbc, others
The shorts make the same when they find bad news.

The problem with this is: any good news will be twisted and turned into a negative... no exception. Let’s face it, this is a lost year for the stock. Only sustained growth and profitability will turn the corner for TSLA.

The shorts have won the battle, helped by Elon shooting himself in the foot time and time again (announcement of $35K version combined with store closing, FSD tech analyst day combined with outrageous timeline predictions, capital raise combined with leaked 10 months email, etc.)

What should have been cause for celebration at each of these and cause for stock to take-off has been turned into FUD and sell-off.

Stop all Elon communications for a while, incl. internal e-mails, seems the best way to go in my opinion.

 

[EVNow]

Thanks. Well, 1) I'm trying to be cautious, 2) Troy has been superb in the past, 3) I've been overly bullish at times, 4) it is just a leaked email to employees, 5) better to have low expectations and be surprised than have high expectations and be disappointed.

But I have been debating what to do with Troy's estimate.

Troy's Q4 estimates were off by 10k.

Essentially 74k is Q1 deliveries + 10k in transit from Q1.

I think that is the lower end of the estimates. What I thought was likely before Elon's emails. Now I think something in the 80s is likely. Time will tell.

p.s. the person with best Q1 estimates in Troy's sheet is someone who thinks Q2 will be less than Q1

 

[Singuy]

Just to be clear...if it comes down to it, SpaceX is Elon's baby. Not taking anything away from his dedication to Tesla, but he started SpaceX from absolute scratch. I think if he was forced to chose one or the other...he would chose SpaceX.

Dan

Historically speaking, Elon in 2008 had a choice and decided he needed both or nothing.

 

[RobStark]

The latest insanity from Anton Wahlman:
The U.S. Should Ban All Electric Cars in the Interest of National Security

Why does Anton care about US national security?

He wants to break up the country.

Irreconcilable Differences: Let's Divide America in Two

 

[Solar Aussie]

Why does Anton care about US national security?

He wants to break up the country.

Irreconcilable Differences: Let's Divide America in Two

This guy is crazy. And determined to prove it

 

[RobStark]

They don’t. As long as they are selling all they are making they don’t need to advertise.

Every carmaker sells every car they make.

The question is how long it takes and at what price.

Tesla doesn't need more demand for sub $40k Model 3s.

Advertising top of the line Model 3, Model S and Model X might very well increase ASP and profits.

Instead of discounting Model S P100DL in China $60k, putting downward pressure on resale values and pissing off current owners, maybe advertising a $15k discount would have worked out better for everybody.

 

[RobStark]

You can have outlandish goals for internal moonshot projects. That's fine.

But there are plenty of companies who give conservative guidance yet are able to motivate their employees to be creative, productive and innovative.

Hidden internal goals are nowhere near as motivating.

There are plenty of conservative companies not growing 50% plus per year and innovating as quickly as Tesla.

 

[MP3Mike]

Every carmaker sells every car they make.

Unless you're GM and you refuse to sell them and crush them all.

 

[RobStark]

The possibility of a 2nd S/X inventory write-down in 2019 seems unfortunate.

I would agree about the interior if it were just a repeat of the 3. Electrek says it may have an instrument panel in front of the driver, and better interior materials, and comfier seats. i hope it's true, who knows.

I note Electrek's article on the CNBC article didn't repeat the part about longer range.

According to those leaks it may have a tiny vestigial instrument cluster.

Seriously, it is likely a not insignificant amount prefer the current version.

I get it some people love the Model 3 interior.But some don't.

In this scenario if the Ravens needed to be discounted I don't think it would be very much.

 

[Singuy]

It's almost as bad as the rationalization often given that Tesla's real mission is sustainable energy or what not whenever Tesla has to e.g. reduce prices to make more sales. No one should be confused by this. Even if sustainability is the long-term objective, Elon properly believes that short-term profit is the best way to maximize the impact of that long-term mission, such that if he can sell 2 cars for 10k$ total profit or 1 car for 12k$ he will pick the latter. And if they lower prices and say 'well that's just to advance our mission' they are talking out their bazookas.

Interesting. I am still trying to find somewhere in his secret master plan part 1 that says "Build an expensive car, milk it for as long as possible until the competition catches up, then build another car at a lower price point or improve the expensive car just slightly to be ahead".

It's 2019, the competition when it comes to features and price point is 7 years behind. I know he bet his company on a 35k car for shits and giggles...not that he was following some kind of master plan or anything.

 

[AcesDealt]

I've seen a few references to the idea that there are 2 S/X lines right now and that Tesla will have to remove 1 to put in a Y line. What are the thoughts on the accuracy of the various parts of this claim?

a) Is it 2 lines right now?
b) Can they support demand with just 1? What would be the max output?
c) Would they only get 1 line for the Y out of this? Could they also add more floor space for a 2nd?

Ultimately the ideal scenario is for N.American factories to support N.America, and so on. The 7k/week for the model 3 current output just for N.America is a pretty ambitious number long-term. I can see moving S/X equipment to Shanghai if it is removed from Fremont (right? that seems obvious?). It would be nice to see Tesla move on a Europe plant. Man this stock drop is p*ss*ng me off. I'd vastly prefer they be going all out on cap.ex and the market cap still high on promises and hope. Elon has claimed that cap.ex spend is not slowing them down but I don't believe him. A Europe factory makes sense pronto.

 

[neostars]

The key is FSD. If can make it work Telsa profits will skyrocket.
Good luck to Elon, hasn't let me down yet.

 

[bdy0627]

Stock would take a hit the first time he wasn't on.

How would that be different than when he is on (other than the apology call)?

 

[Thekiwi]

Warning to all longs:

The macros look really sucky. The timing is not very good for TSLA unfortunately, a situation that can be argued is very much self inflicted.

But ask yourself this: If the S and P and QQQs drop thirty percent in the next six months, where does that put TSLA? How about fifty percent? I have been through brutal bear markets before, and there are no favorites played. All stocks will be dumped, and ‘speculative’ plays like TSLA get obliterated. We are starting from a low point with much technical damage.

This should not change anything on a five to ten year horizon, but you can get crushed before you ever see that. The only way to protect yourself is to either have budgeted for a 100% loss or to use absolutely zero margin.

Can you withstand a double digit stock price? How about a sub 50? Trust me, I am getting sick writing this. Even after the fifty percent haircut TSLA is still my largest holding by far.

I am looking for TSLA specific catalysts to turn the tide, and they should be there, but no one pays any attention to that when recession hits. They sell everything relentlessly and then jump back in when the prices get to the point where even good companies with profits are priced for bankruptcy.

Would love nothing more than to be a contrarian indicator here. I genuinely believe that Tesla is destroying the competition which is why the pushback has been so vitriolic and fierce. This China factory is being treated like a negative, when any auto company in the world would kill for the same deal and progress. This is the way our world works.... which is why we are in such a goddamn mess.

All the best and good luck!

Respectfully disagree with the bolded part above - there are plenty of winning stocks in past bear markets, and Tesla is also no longer the “Speculation play”i t used to be 5+ years ago - today it earns enough revenue and operating cashflow, and is growing at a rate to warrant a market cap in the tens of billions.

 

[elasalle]

Why does Anton care about US national security?

He wants to break up the country.

Irreconcilable Differences: Let's Divide America in Two