Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AlMc]

Nice work for all longs that decided to buy before my buy point of $172.

Hope this upward momentum continues as I am happy with my TSLA exposure and adding more would overweight me in TSLA.

 

[Fact Checking]

Did he just say the only times Tesla made a quarterly profit is because they didn't pay their account payables to Panasonic? I was expecting ZEV credits blabla, but accounts payable? what an idiot.

He's an idiot not just because it's a lie, but also because accounts payable are a cash flow item that has no direct effect on GAAP income, which is the commonly accepted definition for 'profitability'.

I.e. it's not just a lie, but also a nonsensical lie that cannot ever become true under his flawed understanding of profitability.

Mainstream business media is one of the industries disrupted by Tesla's direct sales and social media based model: automotive and energy sectors are the highest mass media advertising revenue sources globally.

 

[X Fan]

Anyone guessed at pickup production rates yet given that $50k sounds like it is priced for serious production (even accounting for it's polarising looks)?

If they do this by 2022:

M3 - 8k / week (assume drop from 10k?)
MY - 12k / week?
Pickup - 5k / week?

That would be a 400% increase from 6k today (not including S/X / Roadster / Semi). ASP (3, Y, pickup) ~ $55k?

At those numbers, so much for the recent FUD's "niche" automaker argument.

 

[X Fan]

NIO doesn't own an automotive factory. Rivian does.

You are falling into the fallacy that BEVs are a tiny market where all BEV makers are fighting over. North Americans buy over 3M trucks per year. Tesla won't be able to make 3M trucks per year any time soon.

NIO is a robotaxi play. Rivan is a BEV truck play.

Secondly, NIO is design and marketing. Rivian is an engineering firm.

New companies are selling BEVs in China just fine too.

Tesla is planning to offer a scifi bladerunner truck by Elon's admission most won't like.

Rivian is planning a conventional luxury truck with screen instrument cluster and luxurious leather seats. With a unique headlight design, that I almost guarantee most will acclimate to in 1.5 years of seeing them in Trucking and Overland magazines.

Rivian can hire experienced engineers too. This was the same argument used against Tesla, that it would not be able to build gliders. Because it has no experience.

I am pretty sure Rivian won't attempt to build Alien Dreadnought 1.0

Agree with this....would rather Tesla had targeted a mainstream truck. Perhaps Elon was targeting a "halo" truck first, ie. similar to the roadster before he built the S?

 

[urarthur]

I continue to have reservations for the EU numbers. Look at this graph

View attachment 415465

It does look like that they are running behind deliveries to me. We know that Q1 early deliveries were difficult with rework to be done in Zeebrugge and Elon flying over to make hard decisions about pulling that work to the local service centers instead of doing it at the ICS pier as originally plan. And still, they couldn't keep up in May. On the 4th of March, Tesla Norway delivered 97 Model 3's (and it only went up from there). Today, Tesla Norway delivered 53 Model 3's. Sure, the data is sparse, but I still think EU is disappointing. And true, the last month is so important that they could easily make up for it. But based on what we know today, I would have expected them to be way ahead.

The issue is that Tesla needs to reach grow across the board. In China, in the US and in Europa. If the growth in the US is merely because Tesla focused on the US due to the tax cliff and sends less cars the the EU that's bad. Because that means whatever is holding back mass production is still not resolved. Remember : anything that does not point to +25% Q-o-Q is a miss.

Euroepan sales is likely going to increase in the final weeks of the quarter just like last time..
Additionally, more European markets have opened up this 2 months, so NL/Noway is not a representative market for the European total deliveries.

I honestly think they've send more to China than to Europe this quarter, mainly to sell as much as possible before the recent Chines unveil. Chinese sales will likely hurt a little in Q3 due to buyers postponing and waiting for the somewhat cheaper Chinese version.

 

[trentbridge]

It does look like that they are running behind deliveries to me.

The Europeans do get way more public holidays than Americans...

Norway had no deliveries on Maundy Thursday April 18th, Good Friday, April 19th, Holy Saturday April 20th, and Easter Day, April 21st, and Easter Monday, April 22nd...five days consecutively.

And May 1st Labor Day, May 17th Constitution Day and lastly May 30th Ascension Day..and Sundays too!

So Q2 is going to be slower ....at the outset...

 

[capster]

OT



I would quibble with your use of the phrase "net negative". Unprecedented artistic freedom is a net positive which far outweighs any paltry monetary difference.

How much would YOU pay for unprecedented artistic freedom? Many artists in other countries pay with prison terms -- paying by getting slightly lower salaries is a dream come true.

"No man but a blockhead ever wrote except for money." Samuel Johnson

Oh, wait a minute.

 

[Nocturnal]

Sigh. Found some powder and picked up another 20 shares. Wish I had gone in at 180, but hitting 190 I'm reasonably comfortable that I'll see some short term profit on these 20.

If the falling knife has been caught then it's time to cut a b&tch.

 

[Unpilot]

I almost bought more at 179...but got some lotto calls @270 instead.

 

[anthonyj]

Whenever whenever whenever I make a TSLA transaction with my Ally account, the damn thing skyrockets. I love Ally, screw Robinhood. Thank you for the cheap Jan 2020 200c

 

[ktrivedi70]

So happy I bought some at $181 this morning.





True, but if I say "50% of all people are dumber than the median person." half of the people will just stare at me not understanding what I'm saying.

Huh?

 

[urarthur]

Today TSLA is trading both as an automative stock and as a Tech stock (both sectors went up big). I don't think much short covering has happened yet. Once we hit 200, I expect SP will go up like a falcon 9,

 

[pnungesser]

You guys tell your wives???

Not me unless I'm asked.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Ah not a record month in general.

Probably not a record for the first month of the quarter, either. The folks at EV-Sales say Tesla delivered 22.9k cars last October vs. 20.8k this April. It was a lot easier to put up a big number last October, of course, as Model 3s weren't sailing the ocean blue back then.

 

[Prunesquallor]

50% of all people are dumber than the average person.

I swear it seems like more...

 

[Spacemanspliff]

So through the first 2 months:

Q1
13 carriers at an avg of 2k M3’s= 26k
Jan 6500
Feb 5700
Jan/Feb: 38,200
*Finishes off with 10k US, 3 left over carriers, and around 2700 Canada to get us 50,900

Q2
*11 carriers at an avg of 2k M3’s= 22k
10,000
13,900
Gets 45900

A difference of around 7700.

*We know Canada deliveries have been hot through so far through the first two months but one could argue that first ship to japan had 0 model 3’s in it so effectively 10 carriers but Canada deliveries could cancel that out.

The rough pace is about 68k model 3’s for the quarter

This doesn’t include the 8k or so 3’s in transit.

 

[urarthur]

So through the first 2 months:

Q1
13 carriers at an avg of 2k M3’s= 26k
Jan 6500
Feb 5700
Jan/Feb: 38,200
*Finishes off with 10k US, 3 left over carriers, and around 2700 Canada to get us 50,900

Q2
*11 carriers at an avg of 2k M3’s= 22k
10,000
13,900
Gets 45900

A difference of around 7700.

*We know Canada deliveries have been hot through so far through the first two months but one could argue that first ship to japan had 0 model 3’s in it so effectively 10 carriers.

The pace rough pace is around 68k model 3’s for the quarter tack on a 2.5k Canada gets you around 70k. Which would mean given no other ships besides #12 they’d need to close with 20k in the US for June.

They'll do 20k easily in US in June. Also 10k was in trasnit in Q1 + massive inventory sales.
Not sure how accurate this below site tracker is, but I am seeing ~1500 vehicles in inventory worldwide.

Tesla Inventory List - Find your next car

 

[Compton]

I swear it seems like more...

I guess it's pretty natural to compare others to oneself rather than the average person. I can imagine that sometimes it must be pretty depressing to have an exceptionally high IQ and to be [seemingly] surrounded by imbeciles.

 

[TradingInvest]

The Europeans do get way more public holidays than Americans...

Norway had no deliveries on Maundy Thursday April 18th, Good Friday, April 19th, Holy Saturday April 20th, and Easter Day, April 21st, and Easter Monday, April 22nd...five days consecutively.

And May 1st Labor Day, May 17th Constitution Day and lastly May 30th Ascension Day..and Sundays too!

So Q2 is going to be slower ....at the outset...

Holidays may affect production, will not affect deliveries by much. I could deliver 200 in a week (40 per day), or if Monday is a holiday, I could still do 200 in a week (50 per day). The delivery will be determined by how many got shipped to Europe.

 

[Spacemanspliff]

They'll do 20k easily in US in June. Also 10k was in trasnit in Q1 + massive inventory sales.
Not sure how accurate this below site tracker is, but I am seeing ~1500 vehicles in inventory worldwide.

Tesla Inventory List - Find your next car

Yea duh, I forgot to add the probably 8k M3’s apart of that 10k in transit. Will edit and fix.