Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[X Fan]

Their anemic EV strategy notwithstanding, BMW faces other issues. Like many others, I used to be a big BMW fan (owned two). They really were the ultimate driving machine. But not anymore after Tesla. Plus so many reliability issues with BMWs. Even if Tesla were not around, I'm done with BMW. But so glad I can buy a Tesla instead.

I predict BMW will be one of the first ICE to file for bankruptcy, likely in the next five years, ten years for sure. And I don't say this proudly. It's a shame really. BMW was a great car brand. What a fun car to own and drive! But Tesla is becoming what BMW should have become in the EV future.

Car sales are clearly declining (combo of series of bland models, higher price points & Tesla) but SUVs have been en Fuego (haha, sedans too in garages many parts of the world). That could keep them in the game until they properly transition (iX3 coming out first is a smart transition btw). So, perhaps still a chance to survive.

Also, in the event of a severe financial crash, I'm thinking that they would be gobbled up by either VW or MB and /or receive a Gov't handout.

 

[Pras]

Any chance we see a 500 delivery day in Norway this quarter? Seems the number is settling down. Still a 5k+ quarter, that too without much of SR models.

 

[SunCatcher]

Yeah, its a lot of rearranging the deck chairs, too. BMW's legacy ICE investment will sink the company if they are not willing to cut it away. Just as surely as Kodak's unwillingness to abandon its formerly profitable film business and embrace the digital cameras that they themselves invented.

BMW doesn't have 20 or 30 years to make the switch. That's what their Board thinks they have. They (and their shareholders) are in for a shock. You'd think that the drop in their USA sedan sales alone due to the Tesla Model 3 would raus them from their slumber. BMW's US sales of their 3 and 4 Series combined were down 25% in 2018:

After hours OT:

Kodak is one of the more well known casualties of those who, all the way up until the end, had nearly the full market share of the product they specialized in. Then, in a very short time, had none, and were forced into insolvency. Tony Seba has well documented many of the others. There is one that has been fairly left out of the field of examples though; but whose demise clearly fits into the picture of what happens when you neglect to recognize a huge paradigm shift when you see one: The Swiss watch industry's failure to switch to quartz movements (digital), with devastating results;

Paradigms and Paradigm Shifts

As paradigms shift, the new ones are usually met with a great deal of resistance. We are not going to give them (our sacred paradigms) up easily (until the newparadigm can be somehow incorporated into our picture of reality.)

When paradigms shift, they almost inevitably are met with the same kind of resistance:

1. We are literally unable to "see" the evidence of the newparadigm even though it is right in front of our "eyes." (The evidence does not fit into the old framework so it is psychologically denied.)
2. We see the evidence but rationalize it away.
3. We see the evidence and distort it to fit our paradigm.
4. We see the evidence but declare that it is inaccurate. Perhaps something is wrong with the tools of measurement or the person presenting the new information.

Why is there so much resistance? Aside from challenging the concepts of reality which support our sanity, it is pointed out by Joel Barker (a futurist who has studied paradigms and paradigm shifts for over twenty years) that, "when a paradigm shifts, everyone goes back to zero."

He gives the example of the Swiss watch industry. For 60 years they dominated the world in watch manufacturing. They were first in this industry by far with no one in close second. They had more than 65% of the world watch market and their watches were reputed to be the finest in the world. Then, something happened. A paradigm shifted. There market share dropped from 65% to less than 10%. What happened was called the digital watch.

Fifty thousand of the sixty-two thousand watch makers lost their jobs. The nation was in catastrophe. "They made the most accurate gears in the world. It was irrelevant. They made the best bearings. Who cared. They manufactured the finest mainsprings. Unneeded. All the advantages they had accrued in the old paradigm were worthless in the new." (Barker, p 144)

The ironic part of this story is that the digital watch was invented by the Swiss themselves. However, the manufacturers rejected the new invention. The new invention was picked up by Seiko of Japan and it’s a good probability you are wearing one, or one of its descendants, on your wrist right now!

 

[sparcs]

Tesla said single battery module caused car fire in Shanghai

Electric vehicle (EV) maker Tesla Inc said on Friday that it has found no systematic flaws in its vehicles following the investigation of a vehicle that caught fire in Shanghai.

The company said in a statement posted on its Weibo social media account that the joint investigation team had conducted an investigation and analysis of the battery, software, manufacturing data and vehicle history.

The investigation found no systematic defect, and the initial results show that this unique incident was caused by a single battery module fault located at the front of the vehicle, Tesla said.

The company has revised the charge and thermal management settings on Model S and Model X vehicles via an over-the-air (OTA) software update, to help further protect the battery and improve battery longevity, the statement said.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Any chance we see a 500 delivery day in Norway this quarter? Seems the number is settling down. Still a 5k+ quarter, that too without much of SR models.

I don't think so. We haven't seen a SR model in Norway yet.
We'll probably settle for 200 cars per day, and maybe 60-70 this Saturday.

 

[Christine69420]

Any chance we see a 500 delivery day in Norway this quarter? Seems the number is settling down. Still a 5k+ quarter, that too without much of SR models.

No SR models actually. And several SR customers have become impatient and traded up for LR models.

I think the lack of a 500 delivery day is a good sign - the delivery wave should not get too big or we get too much frothing at the top and dissatisfied customers.

 

[stef]

Tesla said single battery module caused car fire in Shanghai

Silly me that I thought it was down premarket because of another executive departing... Apple

 

[jerry33]

I think a lot of people have to much hope for batteries. You cannot power the grid continuously with batteries.

Seemed to work in Australia when the grid went down.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

it boggles my mind that anyone still thinks hybrids are a good idea. I have a lexus CT200h hybrid before my tesla, and my wife now drives it. Its awful. Its basically a petrol car, with a stop start engine. I *can* toggle it into pure electric mode, and I can just about drive to the end of my street if I stay under 15 mph. (I'm not kidding).
Nicer to drive than an ICE, because less fumes and no noise when stationary. Otherwise...awful.

And compared to my model S? LOL. There is no comparison.

in a world where tesla had never been started, maybe I'd be buying a new hybrid right now, but tesla exists and they make all hybrid cars look like a joke. You can tell the auto companies with zero chance of survival because they are the ones desperately pushing hybrids as their death rattle.

 

[Antares Nebula]

I'm not sure that's true: having a pack in the 'front' (in place of the engine) or the 'rear' (in place of the fuel tank) allows the reuse of old designs and also frees up some leg space (but extra leg space is not really needed on SUVs though, which seems to be the most popular format everyone seems to be gravitating to).

The skateboard design on the other hand affects everything - you have to design a completely new car for it in essence. It also requires shielding from below, while the 'bulk' battery packs are more compact and require less metal to protect. They are probably also easier to install and service than a big flat battery pack.

All the other advantages of the skateboard design are overwhelming though, and I think BMW is making a serious mistake by not adapting it. In fact they made a big mistake ~5 years ago by not adapting it, and today might be too late already.

You're talking about design or redesign. Yes that can be expensive. And depending on what legacy manufacturing equipment/processes ICE makers have already invested in, maybe better to stay with traditional design. But starting from a clean sheet or new design, manufacturing of an EV skateboard design, where the bottom powertrain (skateboard) is assembled separately than the upper body, and the two subsequently joined (the "marriage") is much simpler than manufacturing of traditional ICE, ICE/hybrid, or even EVs of non-skateboard design. This also allows more versatility in platform products vs ICE platforms: more variety top body halves can be fitted on a skateboard design than on traditional ICE designs.

But even VW and others are shifting to the skateboard design. Eventually, I believe it will be the norm. It is a win/win on multiple fronts: manufacturing, platform variety, structural, low center of gravity, more free space, etc. I agree with you that BMW or others not adapting this platform is an error (on multiple fronts).

 

[Leo9]

TSLA price target lowered to $160 from $200 at UBS.
I guess this explain the slightly red premarket.

 

[mongo]

Load smoothing yes, but always as an addition too. You need something more substantial to power the grid, even at night.

A substantial enough battery installation will supply all needed power at night. It's just numbers.
Tesla was powering entire islands off solar and Powerpacks 3 years ago.

3 days worth of storage.
How a Pacific Island Changed From Diesel to 100% Solar Power

See also: every sattelite in orbit and the ISS.
The only limit is production capacity/ cost.

 

[EVMeister]

TSLA price target lowered to $160 from $200 at UBS.
I guess this explain the slightly red premarket.

Good old predictable Ultra BS.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Happy Birthday Elon.

 

[urarthur]

TSLA price target lowered to $160 from $200 at UBS.
I guess this explain the slightly red premarket.

Wow, just wow. Less than a week before #s. Honestly haven't seen such large cuts before (same goes for GS).

What took them 3 months to do the analysis? What's the news? Deliveries?? Nope. Earnings?? Nope. Bad news recently? Nope. Record quarter? Yep.

What happens now when all perma bears have targets at ~$150 and SP goes to 350?

 

[Chocochip]

in a world where tesla had never been started, maybe I'd be buying a new hybrid right now, but tesla exists and they make all hybrid cars look like a joke. You can tell the auto companies with zero chance of survival because they are the ones desperately pushing hybrids as their death rattle.

My feeling is that, in a world where Tesla didn't exist, all the traditional automakers would claim that EVs are technologically impractical because the battery tech is too expensive, and the Leaf is the epitome of what can be achieved in the space. In that sense, Tesla has already accomplished what their company mantra pronounces: they have accelerated the advent of sustainable transport.

 

[Chenkers]

Seemed to work in Australia when the grid went down.

Not exactly. The South Australian grid went black when a Tornado knocked out transmission causing a cascade that knocked out wind farms and the inter connector to Victoria. South Australia has a small highly renewable grid with only a small inter connector to Victoria connecting it to the larger national grid. The Telsa battery was put in following this blackout event and is sized to provide enough reserve power to prevent a future grid trip. It also has capacity to play in the FCAS (frequency control ancillary services) market and some arbitrage.

The battery is way too small to keep the grid running when renewables are low and this is currently done by very expensive gas plant. The immediate plan is a new inter connector to another state (NSW) to get better regional wind/solar diversity. Following this a series of pumped hydro sites are in planning that will provide long term storage to cover the rare extended periods of low renewable output. Batteries are part of the solution but for longer term storage, alternatives like pumped hydro are still viewed favorably.

 

[Fact Checking]

What happens now when all perma bears have targets at ~$150 and SP goes to 350?

Like what happened in the past: they'll pretend their bad predictions never happened, and will have price targets that are conveniently 20-40% below whatever share price is at the moment.

I.e. once TSLA breaks $1,000 Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse will be issuing "bearish" price targets of $800-$900, with an air of confidence and professionalism.

 

[Antares Nebula]

User Quark Star setting the record straight on Seeking Alpha:

Tesla updates on Model S fire in Shanghai - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

"People, this is not a systemic defect. It is more likely an isolated manufacturing defect. The investigation was done jointly with the Chinese govt. You think they would let a foreign (or even domestic) car company off the hook? Ha, ha...think again. Chinese govt don't play. Just look what they did to NIO, one of their own, yesterday:

NIO recalls nearly 5,000 electric SUVs after battery fires in China

That's what a systemic defect looks like. If Tesla had one, you bet the Chinese govt would have forced a recall. And let's not forget about the pretend Tesla killer:

UPDATE: Audi Recalls E-Tron SUV For Water Leakage That Could Result In Fire

'It turns out that water can get into the high-voltage charging port of affected vehicles, making its way to the high voltage electronics and potentially leading to a battery fire.'

Bottom line is that Teslas are simply better engineered. The Model S is now several years old and has had zero recalls for battery fires. Yet these new generation of EVs from competitors are having issues left and right. All these other EV pretenders just don't have the engineering chops of Tesla. You are going to see more and more recalls from other EV competitors.

Also, look at the Model 3. Zero fires so far, whether in accidents or standing still. Tesla EVs get better and better with each generation, and even every year within a generation. Tesla's pursuit of best in class engineering and safety is unmatched by any other automaker."

 

[Matias]

Tesla said single battery module caused car fire in Shanghai

My guess is that these two things are related

“The company has revised the charge and thermal management settings on Model S and Model X vehicles via an over-the-air (OTA) software update, to help further protect the battery and improve battery longevity, the statement said.”

Sudden Loss Of Range With 2019.16.x Software