Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JusRelax]

Those aren't Powerwalls. They look more like Powerpacks.

View attachment 431320

Telsa rates this site for 1,500 charge sessions per day. That's approx. 75 MWh of energy per day, based on avg 50 KWh per session. For comparison, the Hornsdale Power Reserve 'Big Battery' in S. Australia has 129 MWh capacity. So its BIG.

So even a Powerpack array will likely be for peak shaving and load balancing while still connected to the grid. They could really use Megapack.

Cheers!

Ah, good point. I've edited my comment accordingly. Thanks!

 

[kengchang]

Those aren't Powerwalls. They look more like Powerpacks.

View attachment 431320

Telsa rates this site for 1,500 charge sessions per day. That's approx. 75 MWh of energy per day, based on avg 50 KWh per session. For comparison, the Hornsdale Power Reserve 'Big Battery' in S. Australia has 129 MWh capacity. So its BIG.

So even a Powerpack array will likely be for peak shaving and load balancing while still connected to the grid. They could really use Megapack.

Cheers!

3545 S LAS VEGAS BLVD
Project Description:
Tesla Supercharger Las Vegas, NV – Linq High Roller
Installation of 24 DC fast charging posts and 13 level 2 charging posts, 88.16 kWDC PV system comprised of 2 canopies, and 87kw/174kWh storage system.
Job Value($):
$1,066,475.82

 

[Singuy]

I find it interesting that the idea of charging at home is one of the most difficult concepts for ICE drivers to wrap their heads around. To them, it’s the equivalent of magic elves topping off the tank overnight.

If I were designing ads for an EV, THAT’S the point I would try to get across (driver disconnects charger, get in car, display shows 100% charge, he/she smiles, heads to work).

That's why there needs to be "mock" commercials to drive the message home. Something like "Hey what are you doing at a gas station?..Oh I'm here to charge my phone".

 

[Carl Raymond]

View attachment 431275

Orange line is rocket fuel aboard.
Green line is altitude.
That chart reveals remarkably good fuel economy. Just one grid spacing of fuel use for four grid spacings of altitude gain.
Roughly 7 grid spacings of fuel remaining...
Shorts are praying the earnings call is a lacklustre affair. A throttle opener at this point and they’re toast.

 

[dc_h]

The higher the lending rate, the more certain shorts are that they have a good case at hand. So shorts are willing to pay more. That's why lending rates for BYND and such are so high.
Only stable stocks have low lending rates. 1% is relatively low, although it was even lower some time ago. AAPL and similar stocks have been recently around 0.3%.
To me, a strongly rising TSLA lending rate would be a negative sign.

It’s an interesting take on supply and demand. The higher interest rates imply inelastic demand, with shorts willing to pay to stay short. The higher interest rate implies demand for shares is high and that shares remaining available to short are limited.
The contrarian indicator is bullish if there is any positive news increasing demand, shorts will have a hard time buying back their shares. On the other hand it implies “smart money” thinks the stock is going down. Tesla which attracts die hards on both sides, the shorts could be way over-invested in bad news that isn’t coming.

 

[Remus]

$25/month.

That is what my electricity costs to fuel the car - it always startles people into thinking.

(at one time I had $125/month lease too and the combination was insanely good, even for a 100 mile range car. Half my team bought Leafs).

Yeah it's like only four short years ago I went to Google to visit a friend. They have lines of charging posts on their parking lot and each of them occupied by a leaf. Quite a view! You can't even find lines and lines of leaves in a Nissan dealer.

 

[adiggs]

so a review of the e-tron (found from @alex_avoigt)
Der Audi e-tron - gut, aber noch nicht gut genug • emobly

I don't read german, but according to google translate the reviewer observed 23.3 KWh/100km @ 72 km/h. Or, being metricly challenged, translated to terms I can relate to: 375 Wh/mi @ 45 mph.

Yep, that's the e-turd. Limping along at 45 from 100% full to drained would only be ~228 miles.

Then the reviewer gives the rates for 130 km/h which works out to 530 Wh/mi @ 80 mph. That's a reasonable cruising speed with a theoretical range of 162 miles.

Finally, after discussing range the article says, "Teslas Model X schlägt Audi so sicher nicht." Again, I don't know German, but google says that means "Tesla Model X does not beat Audi so sure" which leaves me scratching my head. Surely the reviewer means that the Model X beats the socks off the Audi?

Or does the Model X consume more than 530 Wh/mi at those speeds?

Real answer for Model X - its around 350 wh/mi consumptions.

Silly answer - my Model X towing a truck bed trailer (empty) is about 530 wh/mile. The truck bed trailer has a passing resemblance to a sail for as aerodynamic it is

530 wh/mile for the Audi looks abysmal to me.

 

[mongo]

So is anyone buying FSD in advance of the stated August price increase announced by Elon this week?

It doesn’t take all that many FSD upgrades to generate some significant bonus high margin revenue for Q3.

Every 1000 upgrades sold equals $6 million in 100% gross margin revenue.

FSD has not achieved the published feature set, some portion is deferred.... For now.
That would be a large incentive not to short. All that deferred FSD revenue that will be claimed in the blink of a software feature release (someday).

 

[Cartegena]

Short lending rate at Fidelity is up today to 0.50% from 0.375%. Suggests that instead of covering, short interest is increasing as the share price has been rising into the earnings report. Could get interesting ....

Odd. No hard to borrow fee notice shows up when I enter a hypothetical short sale on Fidelity. Fidelity shows over a million shares available to borrow.

 

[Chasingmars]

All that deferred FSD revenue that will be claimed in the blink of a software feature release (someday).

Pretty sure the short view is that is a liability if Tesla can't deliver on FSD... I'm long and I worry about this too.

 

[EVNow]

All that deferred FSD revenue that will be claimed in the blink of a software feature release (someday).

Don't forget - they have to upgrade cars to HW3 too. So, there is some cost involved - and it will take several quarters to complete the upgrades.

Pretty sure the short view is that is a liability if Tesla can't deliver on FSD... I'm long and I worry about this too.

Well, I think they can deliver city NOA and arguably that completes FSD. The way Tesla talks about FSD - it is not the same as robotaxi !

I think they can claim to have delivered FSD once City NOA is rolled out - and HW3 upgrades are done. Conservatively they should retain some revenue in the deferred category (or move to warranty claims) in case people challenge that what they have delivered is not FSD.​

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

3545 S LAS VEGAS BLVD
Project Description:
Tesla Supercharger Las Vegas, NV – Linq High Roller
Installation of 24 DC fast charging posts and 13 level 2 charging posts, 88.16 kWDC PV system comprised of 2 canopies, and 87kw/174kWh storage system.
Job Value($):
$1,066,475.82

backing out the solar panels (SWAG of ~$176k), powerpacks (SWAG of ~$87k @ $500/kwh), and L2 EVSE's (~$6k @ $500 each), leaves ~$800k for the 24 v3 superchargers + structural and pavement work.

Weren't the v2 superchargers something like ~$20k each? If so, then those construction contractors are charging an arm and a leg!

 

[kengchang]

backing out the solar panels (SWAG of ~$176k), powerpacks (SWAG of ~$87k @ $500/kwh), and L2 EVSE's (~$6k @ $500 each), leaves ~$800k for the 24 v3 superchargers + structural and pavement work.

Weren't the v2 superchargers something like ~$20k each? If so, then those construction contractors are charging an arm and a leg!

You are missing conduit and AC/DC cabinet. Cabinet probably takes the bulk of the cost.

Tesla Solar site estimate 16-20kWh generated per 4KW system in Nevada. So this 88kW can generate 352~440kWh a day.

 

[RobStark]

Right. Because Volvo, a manufacturer, that ranks 26th out of 28 of the more known brands in the US by sales has that much influence.

Would Vazquez get behind another self-driving Volvo if she knew about being named for criminal, or at the least, civil charges? (**do not want to restart a Waymo vs Tesla discussion again)

The past ICEv history has little relevance to the future of autonomous EVs.

That Volvo has a reputation for safety should be a feather in their cap.

Plus, Volvo is now more than 1 factory in Sweden making ~350k cars per year.

It now has a brand new factory in the USA and two in China and is backed by China's Geely.

If a Consumer can buy an autonomous EV where they don't have to worry about liability when in autonomous mode or a Chevy/Toyota that they have to get an extra rider in their insurance coverage which will be the preferred option by the consumer?

 

[Carl Raymond]

The past ICEv history has little relevance to the future of autonomous EVs.

That Volvo has a reputation for safety should be a feather in their cap.

Plus, Volvo is now more than 1 factory in Sweden making ~350k cars per year.

It now has a brand new factory in the USA and two in China and is backed by China's Geely.

If a Consumer can buy an autonomous EV where they don't have to worry about liability when in autonomous mode or a Chevy/Toyota that they have to get an extra rider in their insurance coverage which will be the preferred option by the consumer?

Of course there will be a two to four year period, between invention and commodity production level, where autonomous EVs will be unaffordable for exclusive use/ownership. Share, pay exorbitantly, or hoard.

It’s probably a good thing. People will get used to ride hailing - the new cheapest way to get around, with the convenience of having the right model for the right task. After the forced induction, many will never return to ownership.

 

[Sparky4life]

So is anyone buying FSD in advance of the stated August price increase announced by Elon this week?

Yes, I bought FSD in July, 2018 for $3,000.

 

[MP3Mike]

backing out the solar panels (SWAG of ~$176k), powerpacks (SWAG of ~$87k @ $500/kwh), and L2 EVSE's (~$6k @ $500 each), leaves ~$800k for the 24 v3 superchargers + structural and pavement work.

Weren't the v2 superchargers something like ~$20k each? If so, then those construction contractors are charging an arm and a leg!

I think an 8 stall V3 Supercharger was commonly listed with a ~$250k permit price tag. So the V3 price doesn't look out of line to me.

 

[MP3Mike]

@neroden Say.com is taking questions for the 19Q2 investor's call. Do you have any questions written up that you would like one of us to post for you?

 

[brantse]

Tesla Solar site estimate 16-20kWh generated per 4KW system in Nevada. So this 88kW can generate 352~440kWh a day.

Actually, I'd think it would produce much more than that. I routinely produce 5-7 kwh/kw per day in PA with my systems.

 

[Yonki]

Odd. No hard to borrow fee notice shows up when I enter a hypothetical short sale on Fidelity. Fidelity shows over a million shares available to borrow.

That's how I used to check, too, but Fidelity seems to have stopped showing that. Can confirm that they're paying 0.5% to me, and Ihor reports 1% rate to borrow, so it all pretty much lines up.