Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

If we hit 360, we need a countdown for Tim

 

[elasalle]

Didn't x.com come in the thick of Media bias, like EM was gonna start something to do with News/media/ Pruvdah?

 

[StealthP3D]

So Tesla would cap out again before anyone else, but can sell a lot of vehicles in the interim.

The pertinent metric in terms of Tesla's competitiveness is not how many credits Tesla's would be eligible for but how much credit relative to its competitors. Because Tesla doesn't need any credits to be competitive but if its competitors have credits and they don't, it puts them at a competitive disadvantage. They will manage but it is a competitive headwind that will materially slow their ability to grow and expand vs. no one getting any credits.

On the bright side, expanding the credits in general will accelerate the overall transition to EV's.

 

[SteveG3]

Judging by how nervous he was and how much egg he has on his face, I think he’ll capitulate. Publicly stating your short position and spilling all that FUD opens him up to being a prime target of longs. Now that his fellow citizen shorts are in so much pain, they’ll likely turn on him, making him feel like a clown that he is. Tim’s nervous because he knows he’s wrong, he’s starring down the barrel of both shorts and longs ready to give him a piece of their minds when Tesla hits ATH. For a person being in his position, losing credibility is just the beginning, his coworkers and colleagues will call him out, belittle him, they’ll make sure he remembers his mistake. He’ll hear comments like, “this TsLA bet was so obvious, Timmy boy, I can’t believe you didn’t see this train coming.” Or “man, I can’t believe you shorted the apple of cars.” It’s hard to have a comeback line when you’re the butt of the joke, lunch with colleagues will be hard, especially if we publicly keep reminding Tim on twitter and the comment sections how foolish he was. Be sure to leave him lots of love in the comment section ladies and gents. Don’t hold back...

That latest CNBC short covering 101 lesson with full blown charts and 4 minutes worth of embarrassment wasn’t spontaneous, it planned and likely demanded by his supervisors to save the company from further embarrassment. It was a hedge against the Tesla cult as well as angry emails from shorts.

maybe some who were pulled in as innocent bystanders to short Tesla will voice some of the reactions you are talking about.

maybe you are correct and his CNBC colleagues will do the likewise, as you've predicted, and tease & berate Tim for emphatically getting backwards arguably the company of the century so far... or maybe those CNBC colleagues will essentially do the opposite of what your premise suggests, and back Tim up, say that Musk has pulled rabbits out of a hat, say Tesla was lucky to survive after that monumental Q1 '19 disaster among many disasters, and Tesla doing well is something no one could of called based on the facts, only rooted for based on fanboi/girlism... and, maybe, if that happens, lols, more people will here will realize the big conspiracy theory is believing that the fossil fuel economy is not pumping out funds to try to kneecap Tesla across so much of the media.

As to the fossil fuel economy being behind the bulk of the short position, I'll grant that that is more speculative, but, I do think it is a good bit more likely than not what has been going on.

 

[Causalien]

If Tim’s message to his fellow shorts is that if TSLA roars to $370, then he’s out. Now imagine that if you’re a short. One of your most ardent leader is capitulating on television, conceding that he may have lost, and his body language (leg shaking) says it all. I wonder if this is a self fulfilling prophecy where Tim’s fellow shorts start to think, I’m not waiting till $370 to bail, I’m bailing now before you do, Tim. I wonder if this has anything to do with today’s price action? The short thesis is crumbling so fast that CNBC did a short covering segment 101 for its viewers. WOW!

He is a guy who wants fame. The stock matket will give you what you want deep down, but you'll discover that it isn't necessarily wealth.

The reason I say this is because most trading professional knows about the curse of making it onto any list of successful traders.

It brings aboit attention and scrutiny to your position and methods and eventually will caise others to trade against you. Now tim here actually broadcasted his position aloud to everyone causing the short even easier. Now if he is a small fry, then it doesn't really move the market. However if he has a billion dollar dund, it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

Having done no research into this character, I assume that the average trader is smart, so I believe he knows this too. Therefore this is just him seeking that 15 minutes of fame.

 

[M3Rider]

Saw someone retweet Elon from 2012.
What a great song , goes well with recent developments.
Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[Causalien]

Generally, I agree with that. However, today's rise is a little more significant than most 2% moves because TSLA just broke through last Wednesday's high of $356.

It doesn't guarantee anything of course but the chart is very "pretty". And I like pretty charts.

O agree it is pretty.

But it'll mean cybrtruck's reaction will be violent with this sort of pre builtup.

 

[ntam]

Anyone looking at options time and sales data to gauge stock movement direction? Earlier today, I saw someone bought 100 Nov 22 360 call when stock around 350. The only problem is that I cannot be sure if the order was for a new position or to close a position. At 9:26am, one of the largest orders today was 1000 contracts of Nov 22 335P for 0.58. It was traded at higher than the ask price when stock was at 357.75. I wonder if it was a short closing its losing position.

 

[Tslynk67]

$700!

TT007, is that you?

 

[ggr]

the defining trait of Mordor isn’t that it’s desolate, it’s that it’s the heart of evil.

There isn't enough space in Washington, DC. ;-)

 

[LJS22]

Judging by how nervous he was and how much egg he has on his face, I think he’ll capitulate. Publicly stating your short position and spilling all that FUD opens him up to being a prime target of longs. Now that his fellow citizen shorts are in so much pain, they’ll likely turn on him, making him feel like a clown that he is. Tim’s nervous because he knows he’s wrong, he’s starring down the barrel of both shorts and longs ready to give him a piece of their minds when Tesla hits ATH. For a person being in his position, losing credibility is just the beginning, his coworkers and colleagues will call him out, belittle him, they’ll make sure he remembers his mistake. He’ll hear comments like, “this TsLA bet was so obvious, Timmy boy, I can’t believe you didn’t see this train coming.” Or “man, I can’t believe you shorted the apple of cars.” It’s hard to have a comeback line when you’re the butt of the joke, lunch with colleagues will be hard, especially if we publicly keep reminding Tim on twitter how foolish he was. Be sure to leave him lots of love in the comment section ladies and gents. Don’t hold back...

That latest CNBC short covering 101 lesson with full blown charts and 4 minutes worth of embarrassment wasn’t spontaneous, it planned and likely demanded by his supervisors to save the company from further embarrassment. It was a hedge against the Tesla cult as well as angry emails from shorts.

Yea he kept saying that the stock is unpredictable but really it’s been fairly easy to predict what causes it to go up. If you’re a short you are in for a world of hurt when Tesla hits 100,000 + deliveries this quarter, hits 360,000 guidance, Shanghai is selling their cars, all anyone talks about is how crazy Cybertruck looks, and how every EV coming on the market will be a Tesla copycat.
When it goes down it makes no sense. It’s usually based on nothing tangible. The shorts are the only thing making it unpredictable

 

[Todd Burch]

For those expecting a dip after Cybrtrk reveal, you may be right.

Then again, that's what they said was going to happen when Q3 results came out.

Someone remind me how that went again?

Spoiler: How did it go?

Well. It went well. Really damn well.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Anyone looking at options time and sales data to gauge stock movement direction? Earlier today, I saw someone bought 100 Nov 22 360 call when stock around 350. The only problem is that I cannot be sure if the order was for a new position or to close a position. At 9:26am, one of the largest orders today was 1000 contracts of Nov 22 335P for 0.58. It was traded at higher than the ask price when stock was at 357.75. I wonder if it was a short closing its losing position.

The volume of calls to puts is heavily skewed towards calls right now by a 2:1 margin. Furthermore, the volume / OI ratio on ATM / slightly OTM call strikes expiring 11/22 is also fairly high, ranging from ~2-3:1. Puts have a similar volume / OI ratio, but at much lower volume.

Source: barchart.com.

 

[HG Wells]

the defining trait of Mordor isn’t that it’s desolate, it’s that it’s the heart of evil.

You must mean the heart of evil, Mar A Lago .

 

[Krugerrand]

Any other guesses?

Yes. Too bad for you they aren’t appropriate for this forum; they’re really good guesses.

 

[Artful Dodger]

fwiw, I doubt that Tim actually exits his position at $370 or $375, though it was surprising how nervous he looked.

If the SP breaks the ATH near 375 anytime soon, the next serious psychological resistance level is 420. I'm not sure Tim wants to ride that train.

I'd be surprised if he hasn't covered already, and he's just nervous due to lying on television. Ironic, since that's his day job.

Cheers!

 

[Tslynk67]

Where IS @SpaceCash when you need him?

 

[wipster]

If Musk is going to Mordor, is he Frodo or Sam? And does this involve a ring somehow?

Frodo or Sam? He's Gandalf!!!

 

[SteveG3]

He is a guy who wants fame. The stock matket will give you what you want deep down, but you'll discover that it isn't necessarily wealth.

The reason I say this is because most trading professional knows about the curse of making it onto any list of successful traders.

It brings aboit attention and scrutiny to your position and methods and eventually will caise others to trade against you. Now tim here actually broadcasted his position aloud to everyone causing the short even easier. Now if he is a small fry, then it doesn't really move the market. However if he has a billion dollar dund, it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

Having done no research into this character, I assume that the average trader is smart, so I believe he knows this too. Therefore this is just him seeking that 15 minutes of fame.

I strongly suspect that, the likes of

-shows like "Fast Money" (where Tim is a regular) putting on "real traders"

- Seeking Alpha, with an official policy of not fact checking the blogs they post from "contributors"

- Business Insider, founded and helmed by Henry Blodget, a man permanently barred from the securities industry due to violations of securities law

- thestreetdotcom founded by Jim Cramer himself


were actually created as vehicles to expand the capacity to play the Wall Street/Media manipulation game that Cramer described in the video Curt and myself have linked here a number of times over the years. that is, a fundamental ingredient of that game is getting false narratives pushed out to the public via media platforms... some of the guys who've played that game for years appear to have decided to explicitly create media platforms (Seeking Alpha, Business Insider, streetdotcom) and shows (Fast Money) on which to run these games with a one big, long, green light for such games.

 

[mongo]

Frodo or Sam? He's Gandalf!!!

That explains so much. From "Fly, you fools" to the shorts, his fall and rise, even his timing estimates: