Notice how he says himself this is speculation on his part. So I believe that he is being very optimistic here. I hope he's right obviously but I would caution everyone to manage their expectations. He is also referring to long-term sales demand, not production. Ramping up to these levels if the demand is there will take time.
Of course it's speculation, that's the only way to project long-term demand. By nature it's speculation.
And the projected demand for ANY product is going to be a very rough estimate because it will vary wildly with a number of factors. I think if the economy distributed the wealth of productivity more evenly to the workers rather sending an inordinate amount of it to the top 1%, then those demand estimations would be
conservative. They would also be conservative in a stronger economy. There are millions of people who would
love to own a Model 3 but
every new car, gas or electric, is out of their financial reach because they are only making $15 or $20/hour. I overheard two thirty-somethings talking today about a 2001 Nissan Pathfinder for sale for only $2,000. Their comment was "I mean, a 4 wheel drive for only $2K, that's incredible!" Which is true, I imagine it's probably worth $3K. And the reason it's only worth that much is that people with a bigger car budget want a nicer car than a crappy, shagged out Nissan Pathfinder with marginal safety for their friends and family. Raise the purchasing power of the working class and those demand estimates will be conservative.
You can get a nice but very cheap house in towns and cities that no one wants to live in too. Most things of some value have basically unlimited demand at the right price point. So, lower the price of the car because of production efficiencies and demand soars even higher than those conservative estimates! Tesla is always working to produce better products with less production and delivery costs. And they are good at it which is why 2019 wasn't the predicted "Year of the Tesla killers". And 2020 won't be either.
Here's a related observation: Tesla's first four cars, the S, X, 3 and Y (ignoring the Tesla/Lotus), all have the same design language - they are all easily recognizable by most people as "Tesla's". This is a good way to build brand recognition. However, imagine a world where even 33% of new car sales are Tesla's. Everywhere you looked, you would see the same f*cking thing. This would naturally start to turn off many from buying a Tesla and being like everyone else. Tesla is already dealing with this issue now! They
could have made the Tesla pick-up all aerodynamic looking so it matched the existing Tesla design language and, indeed, that is probably what most CEO's would have done. But Elon is already planning ahead for when Tesla's rule the road. I can't wait to get my butt in the seat of my Cybertruck! Too cool! Then we have the first designed in China Tesla model Elon spoke of recently. We don't even know what it looks like yet. But you can bet Elon will inspire the most creative Chinese designers to make something truly outstanding and appealing to the modern markets. It would surprise me if he doesn't already have a concept for it. But he's going to get the Chinese designers to create it. So, that will be an entirely new design language. And so forth. Something for everyone.
It may be against the odds, but it wouldn't surprise me if Tesla's relentless quest for producing better vehicles at ever lower costs results in them becoming such a dominant manufacturer that, eventually, governments around the world start throwing the "monopoly" word around. This wouldn't happen until well after 2030 when all new cars will be electric anyway so it will be no more disastrous than the sanctions levied on MSFT.
