Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

Even Panasonic put it out in the media last year that they had the technical resources to expand beyond their current deal in Nevada, but no sign so far that Tesla has taken them up on it.

What? Tesla is pack limited and they are ramping GF1 as fast as possible: latest leak says around 8k packs/week, shared between Model 3, Model Y and GF3.

That's around 50% higher output than a year ago.

Why do you think Tesla made @KarenRei wait 4 years for her Model 3? Because they have the output but hate revenue and income?

 

[dl003]

What? Tesla is pack limited and they are ramping GF1 as fast as possible: latest leak says around 8k packs/week, shared between Model 3, Model Y and GF3.

That's around 50% higher output than a year ago.

Why do you think Tesla made @KarenRei wait 4 years for her Model 3? Because they have the output but hate revenue and income?

Probably because they gave up on the spelling of her street address.

 

[sparcs]

What? Tesla is pack limited and they are ramping GF1 as fast as possible: latest leak says around 8k packs/week, shared between Model 3, Model Y and GF3.

That's around 50% higher output than a year ago.

Why do you think Tesla made @KarenRei wait 4 years for her Model 3? Because they have the output but hate revenue and income?

What GWh factory cell output is 8k packs per week? I believe the article last year said they had a deal covered through 35 GWh per year, but Panasonic had the technical resources to go to 54 GWh if Tesla was interested in expanding their deal.

Are you saying that Panasonic is adding more cell lines now to exceed 35 GWh per year at Giga Nevada? I haven't seen any clear information to that effect and was waiting on Battery/Powertrain Investor day for clarity (since there has been talk of Tesla producing their own cells).

 

[CorneliusXX]

I've been inspired by the people on this board. Fancy beer for the whole family.

 

[KarenRei]

What? Tesla is pack limited and they are ramping GF1 as fast as possible: latest leak says around 8k packs/week, shared between Model 3, Model Y and GF3.

That's around 50% higher output than a year ago.

Why do you think Tesla made @KarenRei wait 4 years for her Model 3? Because they have the output but hate revenue and income?

And more to the point, if anyone here doesn't realize that the reason Tesla hasn't expanded their contract with Panasonic is because they're switching to their own internal cell lines going forward, they must have been living in a cave.

 

[KarenRei]

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Then how did Peugeot come from nowhere and became the fifth-largest global EV seller in January? Other manufacturers are doing what Tesla is also doing: buying from battery manufacturers and letting them do the scaling.
EV Sales: Global Top 20 January 2020

Most of that is the peugeot 208, which has an WLTP range of 217 miles versus the model 3 SR range of 381 miles. It easy to produce a lot of cars if they have a tiny battery and short range, but thats ultimately pretty limiting given so many potential customers mention 'range anxiety' as a reason they have not yet bought an EV.

 

[JRP3]

Demand for Model y is probably a bigger factor than battery supply that will keep its ramp low.

Why do you even bother with this nonsense? And why are you back? You know your "points" will be shredded into little pieces every time.

 

[BornToFly]

Tesla is looking great so far in Q1, but Macros are going to pull it down. Just heard that some big festival in Texas is cancelled because of the virus, and the local economy will loose over $300 Million. Now multiply that all over the world (Alpine World Championships cancelled, etc.), and futures are going to get crushed on Monday and for the rest of the quarter. I should have bought Puts on Friday, but I'm not trusting myself enough....

 

[mongo]

Tesla is looking great so far in Q1, but Macros are going to pull it down. Just heard that some big festival in Texas is cancelled because of the virus, and the local economy will loose over $300 Million. Now multiply that all over the world (Alpine World Championships cancelled, etc.), and futures are going to get crushed on Monday and for the rest of the quarter. I should have bought Puts on Friday, but I'm not trusting myself enough....

TSLA the stock may be knocked about by market forces.
However, Tesla the company will be fine. It will be one of the few companies with increased revenue in 2020. They have high margin, in demand products that requires only the minimum of inter-personal interaction. Energy is growing like crazy, and they are launching new Y and Semi. I could see investors flocking to TSLA as a beacon of potential.

Regarding cancelled events, yes it is hard on the economy of the event location, but it also has the effect of all the participants having more disposable income.

 

[BornToFly]

TSLA the stock may be knocked about by market forces.
However, Tesla the company will be fine. It will be one of the few companies with increased revenue in 2020. They have high margin, in demand products that requires only the minimum of inter-personal interaction. Energy is growing like crazy, and they are launching new Y and Semi. I could see investors flocking to TSLA as a beacon of potential.

Regarding cancelled events, yes it is hard on the economy of the event location, but it also has the effect of all the participants having more disposable income.

I agree that Tesla, the company, should be fine. However, remember with the Model 3 ramp, Elon said that if even one part is unavailable, you can't build the car. Let's hope the entire supply chain remains intact, or production could be impacted.

 

[AlMc]

Demand for Model y is probably a bigger factor than battery supply that will keep its ramp low. If Tesla expected huge Model Y volumes, would it have just repurposed a tent/line in the Fremont factory to produce it?
There is a reason Panasonic refused to invest more in the Nevada GF.


Then how did Peugeot come from nowhere and became the fifth-largest global EV seller in January? Other manufacturers are doing what Tesla is also doing: buying from battery manufacturers and letting them do the scaling.
EV Sales: Global Top 20 January 2020

Man, I miss this guy. /s

 

[StealthP3D]

Tesla is looking great so far in Q1, but Macros are going to pull it down.

You may be right depending on how infinitesimally small the time horizon you're considering is. But here's the deal:

There is a lot of cash on the sidelines out there looking for a home and, thanks to the Coronavirus, there are a lot of places it's not going to go. TSLA is not one of them! Since the Coronavirus hit TSLA has outperformed the overall market and this difference should continue to expand going forward. TSLA stock is the natural home for investors looking for better performance.

It won't be long before the share price is measured with four digits to the left of the decimal point.

Off-topic brain wanderings: Since Europeans use a comma for a decimal point, I'm wondering what they call it? Certainly not a decimal point?

 

[Christine69420]

Off-topic brain wanderings: Since Europeans use a comma for a decimal point, I'm wondering what they call it? Certainly not a decimal point?

It may differ among countries and languages, but where I live we call it komma. As in four digits before the comma.

 

[NicoV]

Off-topic brain wanderings: Since Europeans use a comma for a decimal point, I'm wondering what they call it? Certainly not a decimal point?

Comma.

 

[lklundin]

This other Twitter source claims a similar February total production of 3,988 units, which is a fantastic rate:

JPR007 on Twitter

View attachment 519144

"February 2020 Production = 3,988 units

- this result is ahead of expectations for a month that only started on 10 February and had 15 M-F working days

- the outcome suggests that the second shift is now LIVE"​

3,988 cars made in 15 working days is a sustained production rate of 1,329/week, 69,000/year.

If we extrapolate the same rate to 4 weeks in March then that's another 5,300 units, making the Q1 GF3 production:

• January: 2,600
• February: 4,000
• March: 5,300
• Q1 GF3: 11,900

But more is possible too, because the second shift likely didn't get to full speed immediately. If the second shift reached full speed by the end of February linearly, then March performance will be 25% higher, 6,600 units, with a Q1 total of 13,200 units.

If Fremont can keep up then Q1 estimates will have to be adjusted upwards.

​

The coming weeks will be interesting. German radio (Bayern 5) reported tonight that due to disruption of supply chains out of China, some German manufacturers will likely be in need of emergency funding to avoid insolvency.

In that perspective it is amazing that GF3 is continuing to crank out cars - Tesla's vertical integration and high level of automation helps, but I still see it as a challenge to ensure continue supplies for GF3, while the virus runs its course.

But so far, so good.

 

[Ipe]

It may differ among countries and languages, but where I live we call it komma. As in four digits before the comma.

The ‘decimal’ is implicit to the metric system. A very handy system that seldom poses problems unless you’re trying to translate exquisite American dishes like the quarterpounder with cheese.

 

[lklundin]

Random data point.
I drove past the Tesla service and delivery center this morning. There were clearly Ys being delivered.

Thanks!
Which Tesla service and delivery center?

 

[KarenRei]

You may be right depending on how infinitesimally small the time horizon you're considering is. But here's the deal:

There is a lot of cash on the sidelines out there looking for a home and, thanks to the Coronavirus, there are a lot of places it's not going to go. TSLA is not one of them! Since the Coronavirus hit TSLA has outperformed the overall market and this difference should continue to expand going forward. TSLA stock is the natural home for investors looking for better performance.

It won't be long before the share price is measured with four digits to the left of the decimal point.

Off-topic brain wanderings: Since Europeans use a comma for a decimal point, I'm wondering what they call it? Certainly not a decimal point?

Komma.

Also, wait, you're saying that I shouldn't have dumped all my Tesla stock and invested in Carnival Cruise Line and Delta Air Lines?

 

[guidooo]

Most of that is the peugeot 208, which has an WLTP range of 217 miles versus the model 3 SR range of 381 miles. It easy to produce a lot of cars if they have a tiny battery and short range, but thats ultimately pretty limiting given so many potential customers mention 'range anxiety' as a reason they have not yet bought an EV.

They are in a different class of cars and i don't think they should be compared. But since we do, something seems to be incorrect with the provided numbers; The 3SR+ should have a 20% higher WLTP range then the 208 (409 km vs 340 km) while the 3SR+ is also 40% more expensive in the Netherlands (€49000 vs €35000).