They can always sell those extra credits. IMO it would make sense to maximally exploit the coming European ZEV credits, pump out millions of 200miles cyberhatchbacks for €25k, kill the competitions compliance cars, increase the value of their credits and make tons of money selling those credits...
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Oh, probably Henry Ford. A hundred years ago, Ford made Model T knock-down kits and assembled the vehicles all around the world, in places like Argentina.
I'm pretty sure Elon used the term "World Car" at one of his GF3 appearances, probably for the grand opening and 1st Model 3 deliveries event, during the time he discussed forming a China design and engineering center. IIRC he said their first project would be to design a world car.
Question is, do they send knock down kits around the world to be assembled at satellite plants, or do they just ship the completed cars? Gov't rules in India argue for the former, but this is the first glimpse of Elon's vision of the "Machine that Builds the Machine".
And guess what? It's likely going to be MIC.
Cheers!
Expectations for most companies have been thrown out the window. A Q1 surprise would be big, but with operations closing there’s plenty of uncertainty. I think people want to remain quiet on this to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
That does not change the fact that there is a market for luxury cars with better sound dampening than handling and range. And that is ok. It' not one shoe fits all. That is also why a roomy electric Cadillac Escalade with half the range of a Model X will appeal to a lot of people that don't want to have their knees under their chin in the back row. And I know plenty of people that want to have a Mercedes because of oh that craftsmanship etc. You and me don't care fo it but that doesn't mean others don't.
Maybe if we can get the largest demographic (by the end of this year) into buying a Tesla they can hit their sales target
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
I'd like to ask clarification regarding moderation policy, especially since @KarenRei has now apparently left TMC over this incident:
Nafnlaus on Twitter
"A specific mod. Sent me a threatening PM. Not the first time. The previous time it had been to "preemptively" threatening to punish me for something I hadn't done. In response to a post I wrote about, I kid you not, how deliveries were going in Iceland."
"There's no point in waiting or the next shoe to drop. If you're on a forum and a mod has it out for you, you're in a gunfight armed with a wiffle bat."
"It's a real shame. But it's the way it is."
"A specific mod. Sent me a threatening PM. Not the first time. The previous time it had been to "preemptively" threatening to punish me for something I hadn't done. In response to a post I wrote about, I kid you not, how deliveries were going in Iceland."
"There's no point in waiting or the next shoe to drop. If you're on a forum and a mod has it out for you, you're in a gunfight armed with a wiffle bat."
"It's a real shame.
But it's the way it is."Why do high value contributors get harrassed via PMs for posting high value comments in the thread marked as "Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable"?
Can anyone here name the single one most important, most discussed topic that "Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World" faces in 2020?
I support moderation policy that keeps politics, bickering and trolling out of this thread, and I supported having coronavirus discussions elsewhere until it wasn't clear whether it would become a pandemic - but now we have new facts the situation has changed. Thread moderation, just like Tesla, should be adaptable and flexible.
It's not @KarenRei's fault that the investment world in general has become the "coronavirus thread" ...
Anyway, I've stopped posting on TMC too, until this gets clarified or the title of this thread gets changed.
To expand on this:I'd like to ask clarification regarding moderation policy, especially since @KarenRei has now apparently left TMC over this incident:
Nafnlaus on Twitter
"A specific mod. Sent me a threatening PM. Not the first time. The previous time it had been to "preemptively" threatening to punish me for something I hadn't done. In response to a post I wrote about, I kid you not, how deliveries were going in Iceland."
"There's no point in waiting or the next shoe to drop. If you're on a forum and a mod has it out for you, you're in a gunfight armed with a wiffle bat."
"It's a real shame.
Why do high value contributors get harrassed via PMs for posting high value comments in the thread marked as "Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable"?
Can anyone here name the single one most important, most discussed topic that "Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World" faces in 2020?
I support moderation policy that keeps politics, bickering and trolling out of this thread, and I supported having coronavirus discussions elsewhere until it wasn't clear whether it would become a pandemic - but now we have new facts the situation has changed. Thread moderation, just like Tesla, should be adaptable and flexible.
It's not @KarenRei's fault that the investment world in general has become the "coronavirus thread" ...
Anyway, I've stopped posting on TMC too, until this gets clarified or the title of this thread gets changed.
Tesla Factory in Fremont is currently shut down because of you know what. So if all discussion of you know what is forbidden here, then are we allowed to talk about the Tesla Factory being shut down? Or is that out of bounds for this thread? I support reasonable restrictions about keeping off-topic discussions out of this thread, but if you know what is considered off topic then we might as well not have this thread at all.
There is no way to talk about Tesla without also talking about the world around Tesla. But it seems the moderators are hellbent on their way or the highway even if they drive all the best posters on this forum away and that would be doing everyone who is invested in Tesla a grave disservice. This forum has become the single best resource for TSLA investors because of the high quality of poster who inhabits it compared to everywhere else. It would be a shame if I have to get all my investing knowledge about TSLA from r/wallstreetbets or something.
I'd like to ask clarification regarding moderation policy, especially since @KarenRei has now apparently left TMC over this incident:
Nafnlaus on Twitter
"A specific mod. Sent me a threatening PM. Not the first time. The previous time it had been to "preemptively" threatening to punish me for something I hadn't done. In response to a post I wrote about, I kid you not, how deliveries were going in Iceland."
"There's no point in waiting or the next shoe to drop. If you're on a forum and a mod has it out for you, you're in a gunfight armed with a wiffle bat."
"It's a real shame.
Why do high value contributors get harrassed via PMs for posting high value comments in the thread marked as "Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable"?
Can anyone here name the single one most important, most discussed topic that "Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World" faces in 2020?
I support moderation policy that keeps politics, bickering and trolling out of this thread, and I supported having coronavirus discussions elsewhere until it wasn't clear whether it would become a pandemic - but now we have new facts the situation has changed. Thread moderation, just like Tesla, should be adaptable and flexible.
It's not @KarenRei's fault that the investment world in general has become the "coronavirus thread" ...
Anyway, I've stopped posting on TMC too, until this gets clarified or the title of this thread gets changed.
I also find this development very discouraging - Karen’s one of (if not THE) most insightful and knowledgeable people in this forum. I know there’s two sides to every story, but I’ve never been bothered by any occasionally OT posts she made, and the quality and quantity of her OnT posts more than made up for an occasional diversion.
Very disappointing that this is happening.
I'd like to ask clarification regarding moderation policy, especially since @KarenRei has now apparently left TMC over this incident:
Nafnlaus on Twitter
"A specific mod. Sent me a threatening PM. Not the first time. The previous time it had been to "preemptively" threatening to punish me for something I hadn't done. In response to a post I wrote about, I kid you not, how deliveries were going in Iceland."
"There's no point in waiting or the next shoe to drop. If you're on a forum and a mod has it out for you, you're in a gunfight armed with a wiffle bat."
"It's a real shame.
Why do high value contributors get harrassed via PMs for posting high value comments in the thread marked as "Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable"?
Can anyone here name the single one most important, most discussed topic that "Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World" faces in 2020?
I support moderation policy that keeps politics, bickering and trolling out of this thread, and I supported having coronavirus discussions elsewhere until it wasn't clear whether it would become a pandemic - but now we have new facts the situation has changed. Thread moderation, just like Tesla, should be adaptable and flexible.
It's not @KarenRei's fault that the investment world in general has become the "coronavirus thread" ...
Anyway, I've stopped posting on TMC too, until this gets clarified or the title of this thread gets changed.
Investing in Tesla is a topic of discussion here in large part because of the invaluable contributions of @Fact Checking and @KarenRei, imo. What, now I’m going to count on the Cat Checking guy for info?
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
MODS - DO NOT LET THIS HAPPEN. TWO OF THE VERY BEST. IF THEY GO ELSEWHERE - MANY WILL FOLLOW.I'd like to ask clarification regarding moderation policy, especially since @KarenRei has now apparently left TMC over this incident:
Nafnlaus on Twitter
"A specific mod. Sent me a threatening PM. Not the first time. The previous time it had been to "preemptively" threatening to punish me for something I hadn't done. In response to a post I wrote about, I kid you not, how deliveries were going in Iceland."
"There's no point in waiting or the next shoe to drop. If you're on a forum and a mod has it out for you, you're in a gunfight armed with a wiffle bat."
"It's a real shame.
Why do high value contributors get harrassed via PMs for posting high value comments in the thread marked as "Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable"?
Can anyone here name the single one most important, most discussed topic that "Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World" faces in 2020?
I support moderation policy that keeps politics, bickering and trolling out of this thread, and I supported having coronavirus discussions elsewhere until it wasn't clear whether it would become a pandemic - but now we have new facts the situation has changed. Thread moderation, just like Tesla, should be adaptable and flexible.
It's not @KarenRei's fault that the investment world in general has become the "coronavirus thread" ...
Anyway, I've stopped posting on TMC too, until this gets clarified or the title of this thread gets changed.
We are all here because of the quality of the info from the members.
All we want is a single thread where we can keep up with the most pertinent news regarding TSLA investing - this one. We appreciate your work - we are asking you to work less hard that's all.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Speaking of those that have been kicked out of here - neroden is a shadow of his former self. 2 short posts on Disqus in a week...
Disqus Profile - neroden
Disqus Profile - neroden
I'd like to ask clarification regarding moderation policy, especially since @KarenRei has now apparently left TMC over this incident:
Nafnlaus on Twitter
"A specific mod. Sent me a threatening PM. Not the first time. The previous time it had been to "preemptively" threatening to punish me for something I hadn't done. In response to a post I wrote about, I kid you not, how deliveries were going in Iceland."
"There's no point in waiting or the next shoe to drop. If you're on a forum and a mod has it out for you, you're in a gunfight armed with a wiffle bat."
"It's a real shame.
Why do high value contributors get harrassed via PMs for posting high value comments in the thread marked as "Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable"?
Can anyone here name the single one most important, most discussed topic that "Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World" faces in 2020?
I support moderation policy that keeps politics, bickering and trolling out of this thread, and I supported having coronavirus discussions elsewhere until it wasn't clear whether it would become a pandemic - but now we have new facts the situation has changed. Thread moderation, just like Tesla, should be adaptable and flexible.
It's not @KarenRei's fault that the investment world in general has become the "coronavirus thread" ...
Anyway, I've stopped posting on TMC too, until this gets clarified or the title of this thread gets changed.
Mods: As a longtime member (mostly lurker) I'd just like to chime in to say @Fact Checking and @KarenRei are two of the most valuable members on TMC and the quality of discussion dramatically improved when they showed up a few years ago. I beg you to make peace with them.
Krugerrand
Meow
What, now I’m going to count on the Cat Checking guy for info?
*pulls out abacus, checks trading account, somehow still sitting on a 10 bagger+ despite the sky falling*
No, you should definitely not count on the Cat Checking guy for info. Idiot had a 30 bagger and didn’t sell. For some crazy reason he thinks it’ll turn into a 100 bagger before the decade is out.
This thread is so valuable because of a) the quality of the participant and their posts, b) the diversity of those posts.
Whereas I agree it should't be treated as a social chatroom, I value those tangential discussions greatly and a bit of banter and humour is appreciated too.
Whereas I agree it should't be treated as a social chatroom, I value those tangential discussions greatly and a bit of banter and humour is appreciated too.
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I'd like to ask clarification regarding moderation policy, especially since @KarenRei has now apparently left TMC over this incident:
Nafnlaus on Twitter
"A specific mod. Sent me a threatening PM. Not the first time. The previous time it had been to "preemptively" threatening to punish me for something I hadn't done. In response to a post I wrote about, I kid you not, how deliveries were going in Iceland."
"There's no point in waiting or the next shoe to drop. If you're on a forum and a mod has it out for you, you're in a gunfight armed with a wiffle bat."
"It's a real shame.
Why do high value contributors get harrassed via PMs for posting high value comments in the thread marked as "Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable"?
Can anyone here name the single one most important, most discussed topic that "Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World" faces in 2020?
I support moderation policy that keeps politics, bickering and trolling out of this thread, and I supported having coronavirus discussions elsewhere until it wasn't clear whether it would become a pandemic - but now we have new facts the situation has changed. Thread moderation, just like Tesla, should be adaptable and flexible.
It's not @KarenRei's fault that the investment world in general has become the "coronavirus thread" ...
Anyway, I've stopped posting on TMC too, until this gets clarified or the title of this thread gets changed.
I appreciate the work of the moderators here and this is still currently the best place for detailed Tesla investor discussion but it will not be if those with the most insight are driven away. Exquisite thread organisation has no value if you lose the content.
Battery day will hopefully answer the question on timing to enter the lower cost vehicle segment, which is just a function of battery supply/cost.
I wouldn't want Tesla to ignore the cheaper vehicle segment once the economics support entry into that market, for a number of reasons:
- Tesla's goal is to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy, a full transition cannot happen without cheap EVs.
- Generally speaking, experience curves are based on units produced, If Tesla leaves the highest volume manufacturing segment open it potentially leaves an opportunity for a competitor to gain experience in EV manufacturing at a faster rate than Tesla.
- Arguably, cheaper vehicles will not be needed as much when FSD is available. However timing on that is completely unknown. If it takes longer than expected, it again leaves the market open to competition from lower cost competitors.
- Even if high cheaper models do not have amazing margins, their effect on economies of scale is dramatic. Tesla can apportion their fixed costs over a far greater number of vehicles and negotiate better terms from suppliers for common parts (e.g. battery cell raw materials), which will increase the margins on higher priced models.
- Companies are partially valued on revenue growth. pumping out millions of cheaper vehicles is really the only way that Tesla can keep its automotive CAGR above 50% 5+ years out when they have saturated the higher priced vehicle segments.
- The more cash Tesla brings in, the more they can spend on R&D to further accelerate the transition to electric transport (planes, ships, etc) or provide a cash buffer against Corona 2.
It really is a shame this has gotten out of hand and I would hate to see someone like @KarenRei who writes a lot of highly informative posts, leave this forum. Or @Fact Checking. And it shouldn’t have to happen.
I wasn’t directly involved, but I know what happened. It is not up to me to disperse details, explanations and motivations. But what I can say in general is that moderating this forum, and especially this thread can be a hugely frustrating task. It is difficult to find a balance between keeping it informative and entertaining on the one hand and readable and manageable on the other hand.
With more and more posters joining us (the S curve, brought to you by Tesla) the more and more people have something to say. And if that were all informative that would be great. But unfortunately it is not. Too many people have the tendency to go down the rabbit hole with technical details on a wide range of subjects, many not related to Tesla. It’s meant well, but it produces an avalanche of difficult posts which others have to weed through. Others believe they missed out on a career of being a stand up comedian, so decide to start that career here by serial posting funny or not so funny remarks. Ofcourse this thread needs some entertaining elements too - it shouldn’t be all boring and informative - but if unchecked it would get completely out of hand. And then there’s the people who think this is a chatroom where they can post the most trivial stuff that really nobody but themselves is interested in.
That is why moderating is necessary, why mods have to keep the thread on track. They issue guidance (which has to be repeated constantly, as memories seem to last just one day here), delete and move excessive posts, and create dedicated threads for OT stuff and for subjects that threaten to take over the main thread. Without it there would be, instead of 4-5 pages, 20-30 pages to sift through in the morning or after having been offline for a few hours. All informative posts that help us with our investing would be drowned out and almost impossible to find.
And yes, the coronavirus is extremely important to Tesla and to investing. And yes, important developments deserve a place in the main thread! But the problem is that a lot of people then start posting trivial stuff about the subject too, which causes posts like these take over the Tesla investing thread: ‘Germany not exporting masks’, ‘A doctor’s tale from Italy’, ‘This university claims it can start vaccine trials in 2 months’ time’, ‘Here’s how you can make your own mask out of a ketchup bottle’ and ‘I can no longer go to my favourite pub’.
All of it - well, most of it - very informative, but too far detached from Tesla and investing. Which is why the coronavirus thread was created. And I get it why people feel the need of posting about the virus in the main thread, and sometimes it does belong there. But it immediately results in replies and discussions that do not belong there. And before you know it things get out of hand. Let it go unchecked and it becomes a nightmare, where all really valuable posts get swamped. Which is why mods have to be strict.
Finding the right tone in moderating is difficult, especially when directives are constantly being ignored and the (voluntary) task becomes frustrating. We are all human too. I know it can also be frustrating to be asked or, after several requests, be warned to stop posting OT stuff (and trust me, the most appreciated posters get a lot more leeway). Or when posts get moved or deleted. But you need to swallow that pride, for the greater good of the thread. Neroden couldn’t. I hope that others can. Because their posts are highly appreciated. Their presence is badly needed.
Having said that: I’ve decided to take a step back from moderating. If I happen to stumble upon a troll I will vape him. But I will no longer delete or move posts that are OT or belong somewhere else. On one hand it is for personal reasons (40% of the turnover of my company is in Italy and it’s all hands on deck to solve issues with postal deliveries), but more important is that I find the task too frustrating, as the decisions I make are always wrong for 50% of posters. It’s not worth it. I hope the other mods, who I know share the same frustration, don’t throw the towel or soon this thread will become a zoo.
Stay healthy.
I wasn’t directly involved, but I know what happened. It is not up to me to disperse details, explanations and motivations. But what I can say in general is that moderating this forum, and especially this thread can be a hugely frustrating task. It is difficult to find a balance between keeping it informative and entertaining on the one hand and readable and manageable on the other hand.
With more and more posters joining us (the S curve, brought to you by Tesla) the more and more people have something to say. And if that were all informative that would be great. But unfortunately it is not. Too many people have the tendency to go down the rabbit hole with technical details on a wide range of subjects, many not related to Tesla. It’s meant well, but it produces an avalanche of difficult posts which others have to weed through. Others believe they missed out on a career of being a stand up comedian, so decide to start that career here by serial posting funny or not so funny remarks. Ofcourse this thread needs some entertaining elements too - it shouldn’t be all boring and informative - but if unchecked it would get completely out of hand. And then there’s the people who think this is a chatroom where they can post the most trivial stuff that really nobody but themselves is interested in.
That is why moderating is necessary, why mods have to keep the thread on track. They issue guidance (which has to be repeated constantly, as memories seem to last just one day here), delete and move excessive posts, and create dedicated threads for OT stuff and for subjects that threaten to take over the main thread. Without it there would be, instead of 4-5 pages, 20-30 pages to sift through in the morning or after having been offline for a few hours. All informative posts that help us with our investing would be drowned out and almost impossible to find.
And yes, the coronavirus is extremely important to Tesla and to investing. And yes, important developments deserve a place in the main thread! But the problem is that a lot of people then start posting trivial stuff about the subject too, which causes posts like these take over the Tesla investing thread: ‘Germany not exporting masks’, ‘A doctor’s tale from Italy’, ‘This university claims it can start vaccine trials in 2 months’ time’, ‘Here’s how you can make your own mask out of a ketchup bottle’ and ‘I can no longer go to my favourite pub’.
All of it - well, most of it - very informative, but too far detached from Tesla and investing. Which is why the coronavirus thread was created. And I get it why people feel the need of posting about the virus in the main thread, and sometimes it does belong there. But it immediately results in replies and discussions that do not belong there. And before you know it things get out of hand. Let it go unchecked and it becomes a nightmare, where all really valuable posts get swamped. Which is why mods have to be strict.
Finding the right tone in moderating is difficult, especially when directives are constantly being ignored and the (voluntary) task becomes frustrating. We are all human too. I know it can also be frustrating to be asked or, after several requests, be warned to stop posting OT stuff (and trust me, the most appreciated posters get a lot more leeway). Or when posts get moved or deleted. But you need to swallow that pride, for the greater good of the thread. Neroden couldn’t. I hope that others can. Because their posts are highly appreciated. Their presence is badly needed.
Having said that: I’ve decided to take a step back from moderating. If I happen to stumble upon a troll I will vape him. But I will no longer delete or move posts that are OT or belong somewhere else. On one hand it is for personal reasons (40% of the turnover of my company is in Italy and it’s all hands on deck to solve issues with postal deliveries), but more important is that I find the task too frustrating, as the decisions I make are always wrong for 50% of posters. It’s not worth it. I hope the other mods, who I know share the same frustration, don’t throw the towel or soon this thread will become a zoo.
Stay healthy.
Given the unique production process of the cybertruck, I wonder if there is much of an advantage of having a giant manufacturing facility for it. As far as i can tell, cybertruck doesn't need any of the fixed equipment that has to pump out millions of parts per year to be fully utilised (e.g. no press or casting machines needed). Their foundry might go against this, however if they're just pumping our rolls of steel at the foundry then the output is easy to transport.
Would they be better off building several factories that pump out 50k-100k CTs per year? Arrival is planning on using this method.
Some of the benefits of this method would be that Tesla can use it as a bargaining chip in several Midwest states to introduce more favourable EV laws. The number of sites available to support a smaller factory are substantially greater, giving Tesla morre flexibility. There would be additional redundancy against issues at one factory, capex can be incremental as CT demand is proved up (at the moment, we don't know if real demand will be 100k per year or 2m per year, building a factory to pump out 2m per year would be a bit of a risk).
Hard to know what the better solution is without running the numbers.
A week isn't complete without a Jason Yang Giga Shanghai update.
My main observations from this week:
- A lot of trucks. Nearly every single loading bay on the right side of the factory has a truck parked next to it.
- A lot of cranes. Feels like they're trying to make up for time lost due to the virus. That is one hell of a busy construction site.
- An interesting bit coming up in between the main factory and the battery building. I'm not sure what it's going to be, but we can now see some black scaffolding coming up.
- A lot of used pallets.
- A lot of MiC M3s waiting to be shipped off to delivery centers. Looks like black is the color of the week.
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