Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[adiggs]

Good job,

Selling TSLA puts has been superbly profitable. I mean. I've never seen IV go past 1.0 before and we were at what? 1.8 around $350? That trade, It probably need to be framed.

I went WAY OTM. 175 and 200 strike April puts. But earning 3% on the committed cash in one week is pretty nice. My thinking here is to treat these like dividends - assignment is an acceptable fallback, but I really just want the premium each month.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

With the dow up almost 2000 points, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that any deal that's reached tonight will spike the pre-market, and then we'll spend tomorrow seeing the dow drop on "sell the news". TSLA will probably drop too, but nowhere near the same rate as the dow itself, since it's rising on the expectation that there is an end to the coronavirus fight.

I see your scenario happening except that I see Tesla being down more than macro's tomorrow. Very poo poo day after the first 2 hours of trading for Tesla. It did not seem to want to follow the macro's higher in the 2nd half of the day and I can see it selling off tomorrow. Just daily observations. When the macro's are up 10%, I would expect a higher than 16% move. I'm super happy with the stock performance over the past week though

 

[FreqFlyer]

Doug gives Model Y a huge thumbs up. In normal times, that could be a good catalyst for sales. Maybe now it will add to pent up demand.

What he states about the relevance of the X is interesting. Will we see the X sales decline more? Even with an updated battery?

 

[Mo City]

With the dow up almost 2000 points, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that any deal that's reached tonight will spike the pre-market, and then we'll spend tomorrow seeing the dow drop on "sell the news". TSLA will probably drop too, but nowhere near the same rate as the dow itself, since it's rising on the expectation that there is an end to the coronavirus fight.

I believe the expectation of a deal was priced into today's gains. I wouldn't expect a pre-market spike unless there are (positive) unexpected details in the deal or fresh optimism the economy may recover sooner than later.

 

[jerry33]

What he states about the relevance of the X is interesting. Will we see the X sales decline more? Even with an updated battery?

I have an X coming in a couple of days. The Y seemed a bit small, and the Cybertruck is too far off (I really wanted one, but the reduction of kW Supercharging on the S was the deciding factor 120 kW last spring, less than 80 now. Charging stops are at least double--30 min instead of 10-15.).

 

[FreqFlyer]

1. Right Said Fred stepped down from moderator? When did that happened?

2. Is Karen's skin that thin? She will be back.

 

[Nocturnal]

What he states about the relevance of the X is interesting. Will we see the X sales decline more? Even with an updated battery?

I don't think so. The X is such an aspirational vehicle. I didn't really care for them at first but they have really grown on me. If I had that kind of money to throw around I'd grab one and throw the unplugged body kit on it.

 

[dww12]

I believe the expectation of a deal was priced into today's gains. I wouldn't expect a pre-market spike unless there are (positive) unexpected details in the deal or fresh optimism the economy may recover sooner than later.

There’s also the chance they just keep bickering, which is why I sold my call April call options. Steve Mnuchin getting to control where the money goes and not having to report it? Having student loan debt cancelled out? How are those things ever going to meet? I think we get more chances.

 

[jbcarioca]

I don't think so. The X is such an aspirational vehicle. I didn't really care for them at first but they have really grown on me. If I had that kind of money to throw around I'd grab one and throw the unplugged body kit on it.

Along about July or so I think we'll see TSLA do well relative to the markets because the combination of TE, GF-3, Model Y and improvements to Models S and X will all coincide to engender enthusiasm. By then several of the newer markets will also begin to recover and GF-4 progress will be visible. Nothing about the next six months will be an easy ride.

Large uncertainty will be present due to the chronic instability of the US President and the devout obeisance of his acolytes. If he gets his way we'll need to endure a longer and more virulent infection cycle plus a wildly vitriolic US election cycle.My optimism about TSLA and the outlook is deeply diminished in the longer term since the US public debt will be exceedingly difficult to service and the subsequent consequences may prove to be horrible.

Even with the negatives I think Tesla will manage to continue growing profitably. It will NOT be smooth.

Still the Model X will be aspirational, and owners will continue to demonstrate just how practical it is.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

We just popped after hours......News anyone? Just seems Tesla specific right now. Up 4%

 

[Artful Dodger]

1. Right Said Fred stepped down from moderator? When did that happened

He's stepped back. He'll still kick out the trolls.

"Be excellent to each other"
-- Bill S. Preston, Esq.​

2. Is Karen's skin that thin? She will be back.

Karen hasn't tweeted about Tesla or TSLAQ since Mar 11. I assume she's on a break, enjoying her new 3, and she's still actively tweeting about Cov-19.

I notice the Iceland Meetup thread is still up.

Don't worry, it's gonna be okay.

Cheers!

 

[Steve m]

after hours up another $20?

 

[Quesder]

ok, I feel like to sell now. Cannot hold it.
I don't look at the New Cases number, but only look at the New Deaths number of USA, because it doesn't lie/hide facts.
Not good. Growing everyday, and California number is not going down. New York is burnt, and New Jersey is on fire.
Louisiana and Georgia don't like to be runner-up and are increasing.

Tesla Q2 delivery is definitely to be badly impacted. Whole year guidance has to change, down to 360K probably.
Guess SP will go to $360 or lower again. The only hope to me is that Gilead's remdesivir comes to rescue and turn everything around.

Anyone have a different opinion?

Bonus paragraph - a story of Max Fear
I almost submit a sell order at $430 last Tuesday 12:59 pm. Then I didn't. That next I posted my fear and regret, and someone asked me to post when I sell, for his reference. XD.
The next day was the lowest day ($352). Suddenly I didn't care anymore because I felt I had nothing to lose anymore.

 

[Cupidchild]

ok, I feel like to sell now. Cannot hold it.
I don't look at the New Cases number, but only look at the New Deaths number of USA, because it doesn't lie/hide facts.
Not good. Growing everyday, and California number is not going down. New York is burnt, and New Jersey is on fire.
Louisiana and Georgia don't like to be runner-up and are increasing.

Tesla Q2 delivery is definitely to be badly impacted. Whole year guidance has to change, down to 360K probably.
Guess SP will go to $360 or lower again.

Anyone have a different opinion?
.

Momentum still good.
Overall market, has not had back 2 back green days for 27 days.
Longer they hold on our making a deal, the better it is for the market.
I have sell around 570-575 area for TSLA that I grabbed at 372. But depends.. too many ppl just focused on CV... but there is a good chance that TSLA will bottom before we see PEAK CV numbers in US.
I'm welcome to other opinions, don't mind risking some short term bounce so I can get my hands on TSLA at lower price.

 

[Mateo7]

Took delivery of a Performance Model Y in Santa Barbara yesterday. My impressions after a quick 150 miles:

• Ridiculously fast for a small SUV
• No panel gap issues. One small trim issue they'll fix at next service appointment.
• Slightly higher center of gravity than M3, but takes curves with almost as much confidence as M3.
• Slightly quieter interior noise (more soundproofing?)
• Fantastic field of view out front and sides
• Somewhat narrow field of view out back due to position of roof beam (which allows for uninterrupted glass over passenger area).
• Audio system sounds (to my ear) a notch better/fuller than M3
• Many nice touches like reclining rear seats, auto-popdown of rear seats from the tailgate, cavernous frunk and rear "well"
• At a steady 70 mph yesterday with heater on, I got 210 wh/mile, which is better than spec. Tesla has achieved a whole new level of efficiency with this car. The new heat pump was a smart, forward-thinking call.

 

[InDaClub]

I believe the expectation of a deal was priced into today's gains. I wouldn't expect a pre-market spike unless there are (positive) unexpected details in the deal or fresh optimism the economy may recover sooner than later.

Is it still priced in?

 

[dw4ngg]

Ford announces factories will be closed for longer tham they originally thought.

Stock goes up 20%.

I give up.

Priced in. Shorts covering.

ok, I feel like to sell now. Cannot hold it.
I don't look at the New Cases number, but only look at the New Deaths number of USA, because it doesn't lie/hide facts.
Not good. Growing everyday, and California number is not going down. New York is burnt, and New Jersey is on fire.
Louisiana and Georgia don't like to be runner-up and are increasing.

Tesla Q2 delivery is definitely to be badly impacted. Whole year guidance has to change, down to 360K probably.
Guess SP will go to $360 or lower again. The only hope to me is that Gilead's remdesivir comes to rescue and turn everything around.

Anyone have a different opinion?

Bonus paragraph - a story of Max Fear
I almost submit a sell order at $430 last Tuesday 12:59 pm. Then I didn't. That next I posted my fear and regret, and someone asked me to post when I sell, for his reference. XD.
The next day was the lowest day ($352). Suddenly I didn't care anymore because I felt I had nothing to lose anymore.

Do yourself a favor and don't monitor price.... it seems like you're overreacting to your emotions, and that will end up costing you money
On the other hand, if you look so much b/c you NEED the money, please sell and take care of yourself and family instead.

 

[Steve m]

ok, I feel like to sell now. Cannot hold it.
I don't look at the New Cases number, but only look at the New Deaths number of USA, because it doesn't lie/hide facts.
Not good. Growing everyday, and California number is not going down. New York is burnt, and New Jersey is on fire.
Louisiana and Georgia don't like to be runner-up and are increasing.

Tesla Q2 delivery is definitely to be badly impacted. Whole year guidance has to change, down to 360K probably.
Guess SP will go to $360 or lower again.

Anyone have a different opinion?

Bonus paragraph - a story of Max Fear
I almost submit a sell order at $430 last Tuesday 12:59 pm. Then I didn't. That next I posted my fear and regret, and someone asked me to post when I sell, for his reference. XD.
The next day was the lowest day ($352). Suddenly I didn't care anymore because I felt I had nothing to lose anymore.

I swapped qqq for tsla last Wednesday. and am I happy I did.

Washington State has stopped being exponential growth and gone linear.

It took South Korea about 3 weeks to get it under control. California has gotten serious so has New York and New Jersey. So I think we won't be as depressed by the middle of April.

I am going to hold for now.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Momentum still good.
Overall market, has not had back 2 back green days for 27 days.
Longer they hold on our making a deal, the better it is for the market.
I have sell around 570-575 area for TSLA that I grabbed at 372. But depends.. too many ppl just focused on CV... but there is a good chance that TSLA will bottom before we see PEAK CV numbers in US.
I'm welcome to other opinions, don't mind risking some short term bounce so I can get my hands on TSLA at lower price.

I think you're right if we see the SP touch the Middle-BB tomorrow around 575 there will be some celling but that move will be short lived. Much depends on P&D numbers in just over a week, then the timing when Fremont comes back online. China numbers and guidance are the dark horse, could breath some energy into SP.

 

[Mike Ambler]

Heat pumps in Model Y may be indicator of what other new products Tesla is going to reveal in the future.

Don’t sleep on Tesla Energy and heat pumps.

Elon Musk hints at a 'Tesla Smart Home' with more efficient air conditioning - Electrek

ADD: scaled production of heat pumps lowers cost for home heat pump and vice versa. 300% more efficient heat pump in the home at compelling price could really be interesting. Also, could become a “package deal” for solar roof, powerwall, Tesla heat pump all in one.

I would guess that at least half of Europe heats with gas or some fossil fuel. I assume NA is similar. This is another huge addition to Tesla's already bulging quiver. Fabulous!