Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ggr]

AVG run time of full tank = 6 minutes of actual driving

Yes, with emphasis on "run"... or was it just "jog"?

 

[wipster]

I'd expect there to be more maintenance given the effects of hydrogen on the components that it touches.

Plus how do you service the Hindenburg?

 

[Lessmog]

Plus how do you service the Hindenburg?

VEERRRY very carefully, with long tools!

 

[ggr]

Bear attack. You can tell by the FUD articles and headlines today like this one:

Tesla’s stock is forming a bubble and new buyers should buckle up for a crash

Very likely some hedge fund managers called in to the media to release an update to this article from February.

This kind of blatant attack usually works out well from my point of view. I picked up a few November $1375 calls just after the bottom, and made just over $5,000 on them by the close. But tomorrow is when I expect them to pay off for realz.

 

[Singuy]

People are out of their damn minds. This is why the average retail investor lose money. There's nothing about Nikola that is attractive because it's based on the WRONG platform! Hydrogen does not work! Theres only one advantage to hydrogen and it's fueling time. But DC fast charging is shrinking that gap. Add this to hydrogen fueling station need to re pressurize or something between usage just makes the platform completely dumb.

Adding more complexity to this equation while having very little legacy auto support will be a dead end for fuel cell. It's so freaken obvious I really don't understand the enthusiasm for this company. I rather pour my money into NIO or any start up that is on the right platform. But even then we just saw Byton bite the dust because it's NOT EASY! These people are freaken insane.

 

[Krugerrand]

Or a service center may never exist due to the state banning Tesla from selling cars. Also you cant blame the person who bought the car when Tesla had the service issue. The point of a good company is to exceed people's expectations, not to be underwhelmed and then get blamed for being at fault for buying the product.

Right?! Because only Tesla should be held to the standard of their vehicles never, ever, ever needing to go to service for like anything. Ever.

The point of a good customer is not to be pedantic prima donna and expect something to materialize simply because, ‘Hey, I bought a car and live in the middle of nowhere/low population density area, so you need to build me a service center down the street!’

By that logic, I’ll be expecting Tesla to service my Tesla’s on my island via mobility service and if they can’t do everything I might need that way, they better build a SC on my island for me.

And while we’re at it, why doesn’t my cellphone have Internet when I’m out camping in the wilderness? I pay good money to my service providers. I should have coverage everywhere, all the time, no exceptions.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Yes, with emphasis on "run"... or was it just "jog"?

Could have been a 'stroll'....

 

[adiggs]

Yeah, what @ggr said.Edit: already fixed Although the usual BB are two standard deviations offset.

It's not really probability, more like volatility. It doesn't predict direction, but rather says "based on the amount and direction the stock is moving around, here is the range it will likely be in in the near future".
Yeah, the downside doesn't seem to make much sense when the stock is on an upward move, but if the rationale behind that move is negated, it could drop back to that level.

One of the observations about the market I've read (but don't have a link to) is that in the short term, stock prices are a random walk. So if you drop daily closing prices onto a graph (probably as a % change), over time you get a normal distribution (with a few really long tail observations). Those long tail observations represent the actual shift of the stock price from one level to another. The rest are "noise".

Over the short term, the daily price shifts are likely to be a normal distribution. This is one reason day traders and their ilk sell at the upper BB, and buy at the lower BB. 95% chance of being within 2 standard deviations means it's hard to be outside of that. And the day traders trading on that reinforce that market dynamic.


For the share price to exceed either the upper or lower BB, you don't need manipulation as an explanation. There are enough traders in the market that trade based on being outside of that 2 standard deviation range (heck - some of us here do that as well, directly and indirectly), that the market naturally corrects from extreme deviations. You need a LOT of good news and good sentiment for the share price to be increasing (or decreasing) that fast.


The BB's are not a determinant of market behavior. Markets behave in accord with the observations that give rise to the BB concept.

 

[ggr]

Embarrassed to admit it but it triggered a few of my trailing stops. I have some PTSD from when TSLA first hit 960

That'll teach ya!

Seriously, though, stops are generally a mistake, if for no other reason than they can be used to trigger a flash crash. I stopped using them years ago after a couple of these experiences. We (humans) only have one advantage over our digital adversaries, and that is to pause and think.

 

[mongo]

OT after hours
So that Nikola video:

When driving in a parking lot:

The fuel cell was putting out 97kW
The pack was putting out receiving 135kW (199.5 x 676)
Load > generation Load < generation (plus regen??)

When stopped:

The fuel cell was putting out 95kW
The pack was putting out receiving 80kW (119.5 x 673.5)
Load < generation
However, if the fuel cell was charging the battery, the BMS reported current should be negative (like during their regen demonstration).
It did manage to gain 0.8% SOC during the drive. Or rather, it gained 0.4% on the drive and 0.4% in six seconds 7:06-7:12 on the video (could be one bit of precision).

Tesla Semi Specs: <2kWh/ mile at 60 MPH -> 120kW load average WHEN DRIVING 60 BLEEPING MPH with 80,000 POUND GROSS!

He also claimed only they have four drive motors...

Fairy Modfather: edited (strikethroughs and italics above) at @mongo's request. --ggr

 

[Nocturnal]

We can stay around this price until earnings I guess.

OT,
How about "sending" the car ahead of your flight the night before, with all your luggage (and then some), and it shows up at the airport to pick you up, right? Sleep secured.

I don't know if I can enjoy travel in an ICE vehicle, so I would do this. We're even talking about our next drive to Canada vs flying. Face it, driving is just plain fun and easy now. Hopefully by then they'll turn on Netflix while driving...

None of this is fantasy!

That depends on whether or not TSLA goes to 10k in the next 5 years or just 3k.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Right?! Because only Tesla should be held to the standard of their vehicles never, ever, ever needing to go to service for like anything. Ever.

The point of a good customer is not to be pedantic prima donna and expect something to materialize simply because, ‘Hey, I bought a car and live in the middle of nowhere/low population density area, so you need to build me a service center down the street!’

By that logic, I’ll be expecting Tesla to service my Tesla’s on my island via mobility service and if they can’t do everything I might need that way, they better build a SC on my island for me.

And while we’re at it, why doesn’t my cellphone have Internet when I’m out camping in the wilderness? I pay good money to my service providers. I should have coverage everywhere, all the time, no exceptions.

Tesla semis containing full service mobile service centers are coming. Tesla "soon".

 

[Cherry Wine]

People are out of their damn minds. This is why the average retail investor lose money. There's nothing about Nikola that is attractive because it's based on the WRONG platform! Hydrogen does not work! Theres only one advantage to hydrogen and it's fueling time. But DC fast charging is shrinking that gap. Add this to hydrogen fueling station need to re pressurize or something between usage just makes the platform completely dumb.

Adding more complexity to this equation while having very little legacy auto support will be a dead end for fuel cell. It's so freaken obvious I really don't understand the enthusiasm for this company. I rather pour my money into NIO or any start up that is on the right platform. But even then we just saw Byton bite the dust because it's NOT EASY! These people are freaken insane.

People feel like they missed the boat on Tesla and want to get in on the ground floor. It's a fool's errand, imho.

 

[Krugerrand]

You should not be dismissed for having experiences that deviate from the norm. In my personal experience Need for service is very rare. When it happens the experience can be exceedingly frustrating. That does indeed reduce the consistency of reports, even though when measured by repeat buying there seems to be minimal lasting effects. Frankly I think almost all Tesla owners, no matter how enthusiastic, do see service as a major weak point. I've argued that it will improve soon since 2014. It, thus far, seems not to have done so. The further one is form an easy service center the worse the problems is, or so it seems to me. FWIW, my car lives a ten minute walk from the nearest service center. I have had no issues other than lack of repair parts two years ago, and that was a gigantic frustration.

NOTE: As everyone who reads my posts knows I am happily long TSLA.

This just isn’t true. SOME people have had bad service experiences and sometimes it’s Tesla’s fault and sometimes it’s the fault of the customer. YES! The latter is most definitely true. If you’ve ever worked in a service industry or know someone who has, then you know their are plenty of Mark Speigel customers to go around.

But let me share just a little something that was posted on FB recently to just get people’s heads out of their pockets wanting to believe as neorden did.

A Model 3 owner received a text message from a Tesla mobile service guy out of the blue.

Tesla: Hey, Frank! I was driving to some other appointments and on my way I saw your car noticed there is some condensation in the right tail light. Want me to fix that for you today if they’ve got the part in stock? It’s covered under warranty.

Frank: Wha...? Um, yeah. Sure. Um. Wow!!! I didn’t even notice that myself.

Tesla: Yes, they have the part in stock. I’ll drive over and pick it up and then come back and fix your car for you.

Frank: Gee! Thanks! Wow!

Frank, not his name, was blown away by the service provided him.

SOME Tesla employees are not good at their jobs. SOME Tesla employees are VERY good at their jobs.

I’m done on the topic mods.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Indeed, something like that could have been the case.

CNBC had been teasing for an hour about a Tesla bear appearing. This coincided with a significant down-slide. However, minutes ago he actually appeared rather circumspect in his bearishness. Meanwhile, those buying Nikola today may have had to first cash in some Tesla.

Wall Street and hedge funds thrive on two-way volatility. Their spokesmen have been advising to wait for a dip to buy Tesla. So today they’re providing one. The heavy trading volume during the recently ended hour points toward the manipulative triggering of stop limits of weak longs who don’t care about paying 2020 taxes. Now this hour the dip buyers may have started taking advantage.

Isn't this also a test for support? Easier to do during this average volume day. But this seemed more like an iceberg than icicle, and maybe the world's fastest V-shaped recovery in history! That was pretty big right? Then it snapped back quite a bit and just as quickly.

Key Learning for Shorts: "Yup, it's real. We're F****."

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

I’m done on the topic mods.

I'm pretty sure you are never done on any topic

 

[M|S|M MYP]

This just isn’t true. SOME people have had bad service experiences and sometimes it’s Tesla’s fault and sometimes it’s the fault of the customer. YES! The latter is most definitely true. If you’ve ever worked in a service industry or know someone who has, then you know their are plenty of Mark Speigel customers to go around.

But let me share just a little something that was posted on FB recently to just get people’s heads out of their pockets wanting to believe as neorden did.

A Model 3 owner received a text message from a Tesla mobile service guy out of the blue.

Tesla: Hey, Frank! I was driving to some other appointments and on my way I saw your car noticed there is some condensation in the right tail light. Want me to fix that for you today if they’ve got the part in stock? It’s covered under warranty.

Frank: Wha...? Um, yeah. Sure. Um. Wow!!! I didn’t even notice that myself.

Tesla: Yes, they have the part in stock. I’ll drive over and pick it up and then come back and fix your car for you.

Frank: Gee! Thanks! Wow!

Frank, not his name, was blown away by the service provided him.

SOME Tesla employees are not good at their jobs. SOME Tesla employees are VERY good at their jobs.

I’m done on the topic mods.

It all averages out in the long term....I had the best mobile ranger named Michael in the San Fernando Valley area. He always went above and beyond what he had to do as far as servicing my car while still under warranty. We talked a lot about how tesla is changing the world and you could tell how passionate he was about the company. Unfortunately, with every Michael...there are 3-5 employees that are just there for a paycheck and consider it a 'job'. I really hope Michael is still around if i need service on my new Model Y in the future.

 

[jackbowers]

@jackbowers I show that the TSLA weight in the EMIs is only about 2.5%. And there is way less AUM in EMIs than there is for S&P 500 funds.

Do you have a source for the total AUM in EMIs?

EMI=Extended Market Index
AUM=Assets Under Management

Tesla's EMI weight is 4% at present. Total EMI assets could be as high as $400B, but a conservative guess would be $200B. The retail versions of EMI funds at Vanguard and Fidelity total $91B, which is roughly 2.5 million shares. These would all be sold while S&P 500 index funds are buying.

 

[Krugerrand]

I had a very similar experience with my brother last week. I have been telling him for a few months now about the opportunity that lies ahead for Tesla and why I think this is the most disruptive company in the world right now.

We visited him last week and the conversation went something like this. Keep in mind he is very risk averse and usually just invests in ETFs.

Me: Tesla is at an inflection point and are positioned to to make major impacts in Auto, Solar, Autonomous driving, utility etc etc
Him: But auto manufacturing is capital intensive and they have manufacturing challenges.
Me: Mostly cosmetic issues overblown by media. This is not just about Auto business. It’s about EVs, has fewer parts and they are making huge manufacturing improvements. You cannot just look at them as an Auto company
Him: But their CEO said they are overvalued.
Me: That’s not what he said, all he said was the stock price is too high. But that’s not the point, he always delivers.
Him: Yeah but analysts believe the stock is overvalued too and there is competition
Me: I’m not going to try to convince you but will definitely share some videos and fact based articles to show why they are succeeding( Product, improving margins, Munros videos etc)
Him : OK

After I sent him the information we did not have any follow up conversations on this topic.

This was last week prior to the most recent P&D report. We are still at his place and I have just kept quiet even though the stock is up 45% since that time. Oh well I tried...

I think the FUDs have much bigger impact on the casual investor. I don’t think a company like Apple had to deal with this *sugar*.

Isn’t there some kind of brother/sister family clause whereby they have to do what you say? Like, doesn’t that special sibling bond stand for anything anymore? Can’t you just punch him in the stomach and tell him buy TSLA or next time it’s your face?

 

[Jack6591]

On the subject of Nikola...

I’m a 64 year old electrician, and I have lost a step or two. I do not possess the speed and agility of my youth. That said, I can install a 240 volt outlet in your garage, in an hour or so. I can have you charging that new Tesla pretty darn quick; and reasonably inexpensive.

Just a little blue-collar horse sense.