Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[scaesare]

Watching the market reaction just confirms what a bunch of short-sighted maroons they (and several folks here) are.

Tesla is re-defining multiple technologies on multiple fronts and leap-frogging everybody else in the process to drive down cell costs to make transitioning the entire planet to make a sustainable and survivable future possible, which just also happens to practically eliminate any competition.

Meanwhile the Wall St. idjits are all pouty because they can't get a shiny new bauble delivered tomorrow, or a redesigned car with new and improved cup holders.

 

[mongo]

6X Power and 5X energy per cell for 4680 compared to 2170 should indicate a 20% power density increase.

Assume Model S Plaid = 130 kWh to get > 500 miles.

130 kWh / 80 kWh (Model 3 pack) * 1.2 Power density improvement * 250 kW = ~ 500 kW Plaid charge rate, right?

Paging @mongo , @StealthP3D , @Artful Dodger

At least. Peak charge current is usually less than discharge current. The new chemistry and tabless design addresses some of the reasons why and could allow a higher C rate and/or higher charge curve with less taper. Also enables higher regen at higher SOC.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Second take added.

https://twitter.com/YingShirleyMen1/status/1308571291482427393

Odd take. Why would she object to Tesla becoming a "chemical company"? The current cathode production material process is insane. Why wouldn't Tesla optimize that?

 

[smorgasbord]

Watching the market reaction just confirms what a vunch of short-sighted maroons they (and several folks here) are.

Tesla is re-defining multiple technologies on multiple fronts and leap-frogginy everybody else in the process to drive down cell costs to make transitioning the entire planet to e sustainable and survivable future possible, which just also happens to practically eliminate any competition.

Meanwhile the Wall St. idjits are all pouty because they can't get a shiny new bauble delivered tomorrow, or a redesigned car with new and improved cup holders.

Reading the reactions over at Motley Fool has helped me to realize that most people's brains simply shut down during the presentations. People there wanted "a 15 minute slick video" instead - as if a slick video of a semi-truck rolling down hills wasn't a recent thing. Other people said they didn't learn anything that wasn't shown in 3rd party videos before. I really do think that for most people it was simply too technical, too much, too overwhelming. People really do respond to charlatans like Milton more than to real talents like Elon and Drew and team.

It may take weeks/months for the impact to be realized by most people. Hopefully, there are enough people with blogs and video channels who can break it all down and spoon feed it to the masses.

 

[Cosmacelf]

"The Tab" now runs the length of the unrolled jelly roll as a single sheet of copper, when it is folded over it has to be cut so as not to crumple/wrinkle at the end. They are just "800?" single tabs. when they lay over on each other they create a solid lump of "tab."

But why does it look like the shingles are only on the outside of the rolled up can? Wouldn't they spiral inwards all the way? Or am I not understanding what I'm looking at?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla will have a 400 mile range $25,000 self driving mass market car.

Model 2 will have close to 300 miles range (per Elon), and it's new $50/kWh bty pack will be an LFP chemistry ("Medium" Range Tesla vehicles, per "Bty Day" presentation).

This is quite profound. Look for all 3/Y SR versions to also switch to Iron bty chemistry (LFP). The cost advantages are undeniable, and the with tabless dry process cells, their performance is as good as current NCA chemistry bty packs.

Did anybody else notice that onstage today Drew said that these new manufacturing process apply equally to Iron battery cells?

It's also important notice that Elon said Iron battery's have 50-60% of the range of nickel batteries. But the total stack of Tesla bty manufacturing innovations add 56% to the range of a vehicle (per the "Bty Day" slide).

I think this settles it: in the future, Tesla Std Rge (SR) vehicles will come with Iron (LFP) based chemistry, and will cost about $50/kWh.

This is amazing progress. First out in $25K Model 2 in 3 years? I think that'll be the Berlin car. Shanghai or a new plant in China would be the logical place to build the Model 1 "World Car".

Cheers!

 

[Cosmacelf]

Trevor Milton bias crept in some, how much was musk promoting things that don't exist yet?

Quite a bit. For example, for the Maxwell dry electrode process, they are using machine design #4, and they figure they need to get to machine design #6 or 7 before it is ready for mass manufacturing. Elon says they are iterating those machines every 3-4 months. So that's a years work right there on the dry electrode process.

Does it matter? Tesla always manages to do what they set out to do. They have a good track record of that. Meanwhile the rest of the industry is sitting there slack jawed at what Tesla is doing. Tesla is once again leaving everyone in the dust. NO ONE is working on anything comparable.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I'm tempted to take some table salt, mix with water and clay, maybe some other things around the house... see if I get Lithium juice.
I mean, what was that? Chemistry does not have to be complicated, right?

 

[Cosmacelf]

One of the Li circles is approximately where Piedmont’s Lithium Project is in North Carolina,View attachment 591116

I noticed that. Paging all Aussies - when you wake up, let us know what Piedmont is saying...

 

[Cosmacelf]

The SP going down is partly Tesla’s fault. They tend to have these presentations 1-2 years before the tech has fully developed. They kinda need to sandbag their tech innovations as well.

Elon and thus Tesla have never done that. They always pre-announce cool technology. It is what it is.

 

[Cosmacelf]

IF Tesla does have a deal with Piedmont Lithium I will stop believing Elon is open and honest. It was made clear that the lithium in Nevada is more than enough for TSLA for many years to come. AND they told us they have the option to mine 10,000 acres. And they made it a point to tell us about how little environmental impact it would have on the desert.
And that having the material close to the battery plant is a significant advantage.

Oh give me a break. That Nevada lithium deposit will have to wait until they build a mine and processing plant. In the meanwhile they could be buying lithium from Piedmont.

 

[Drumheller]

Soylent thinks 1:26 is possible at Laguna Seca in Plaid.

 

[Cosmacelf]

My biggest concern that arose out of the presentation was Elon's comments during the "powder into film" video on the dry electrode process after Drew was being over the top positive. Elon replied "there's still a lot of work to do, I wouldn't say this is completely in the bag" when referring to going from Maxwell's proof of concept to scaling volume production of the dry electrode process. I sensed concern from Elon as so much hinges on what many assume is already "in the bag". He followed those comments up with “To be clear, I would like to not say that right now it’s just totally working. It's close to working, but it's not even now at the pilot plant level. It is close to working. All I can think it's fair to say probably it does work, but with not a good … not a high yield.”

I'm not worried. Elon/Tesla will figure something out. They always do. Also, the sum of all innovations shown today results in a 56% reduction in battery cost. If they miss on one or two innovations, it might turn out to be only 40%. That's still big.

Big picture. Tesla showed today that they are leaving zero stones unturned in the search for efficiency. They invented a new lithium extraction process. They invented a new silicon anode that no one had thought of using before. They invented a new aluminum alloy. They are inventing completely new cell manufacturing processes.

No one else in the industry comes close.

 

[qphan79]

Shirley Meng one of the top battery experts in the world 1st take.

https://twitter.com/yingshirleymen1/status/1308570232433172480?s=21

This is the only take that matters!

 

[Cosmacelf]

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1308562698137821184?s=21

Elon keeps referring to this as the most challenging year ever. Why is this? COVID?

Yes. Both factories were shut down for a while and all automotive sales across the industry took a hit. Also their workforce was impacted. It's been the most challenging year for almost all companies!

 

[qphan79]

Odd take. Why would she object to Tesla becoming a "chemical company"? The current cathode production material process is insane. Why wouldn't Tesla optimize that?

I see it as less an objection and more of a surprise that Tesla is expanding in areas unexpected for a “car manufacturer”.

 

[MC3OZ]

My biggest concern that arose out of the presentation was Elon's comments during the "powder into film" video on the dry electrode process after Drew was being over the top positive. Elon replied "there's still a lot of work to do, I wouldn't say this is completely in the bag" when referring to going from Maxwell's proof of concept to scaling volume production of the dry electrode process. I sensed concern from Elon as so much hinges on what many assume is already "in the bag". He followed those comments up with “To be clear, I would like to not say that right now it’s just totally working. It's close to working, but it's not even now at the pilot plant level. It is close to working. All I can think it's fair to say probably it does work, but with not a good … not a high yield.”

Thoughts/Comments?

People had previously predicted initial yields would be low and like all battery production processes it will take time to fully optimize.

My assumption is that cells which pass QA can be put in cars and perform well.
Cells which fail QA can be recycled, it will take 1 year to fully optimize.

During this initial ramp low yields may more than offset some of the cost savings from the new process, the new packs may be more expensive until they can improve the yields.

In addition they are not making cells to be museum pieces, they are going into packs and vehicles, perhaps test mules or prototypes, initially.
But the production line at Fremont 10GWh is intended for production vechicles.
At this stage Tesla is coy about these details becuase customers jump to incorrect assumptions and delay purchases.

Tesla will rarely intentionally give customers a reason to delay purchase.
Software determines the range and performance of a car, there is no need to make a car with a new battery pack vastly superior to a car with the previous generation pack. Tesla can smooth this curve...

 

[SPadival]

think this settles it: in the future, Tesla Std Rge (SR) vehicles will come with Iron (LFP) based chemistry, and will cost about $50/kWh.

The future as in this quarter? I called this one

Note that LFP is already below $100/kWh.

Another reason for shipping Model 3s (SR+?) from China to Europe & Australia - Free up Nickel based battery production capacity for the Model 3 LRs & the Semi

Elon gave us a clue about this in the last earnings call:

 

[FrankSG]

Frank, this is a great post!

The one point I disagree with is clearly others will jump in the pool in a big way well before 2030. No doubt in my mind. To paraphrase a principle: We overestimate short term and underestimate long term changes. Fear of death/extinction (which affects companies just like people) will cause shareholders to force others to follow Tesla's lead well before 2030.

Will any one company match 3 TWh? Very doubtful.

There probably will be others yes, but in my opinion mostly because demand will outpace supply.

The companies that have a fear of death/extinction are the fossil fuel companies. As long as battery demand continues to outpace battery supply, Panasonic, LG Chem, CATL, etc. will not be propelled forward by this fear. There should be plenty of demand for their inferior batteries for the foreseeable future, but I don't see how Tesla does not end up with a majority market share, perhaps near monopoly, of the multi-TWh scale battery market in the 2030s.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This level of efficiency locks in a $1T valuation in the near future. The ability to work products off this based enough for that. Will be shocked if TSLA isn't $1T in 2025.

The ability to retain this talent for that 5 years is what pushes it to $2-5T by 2030. The speed of innovation we're seeing is untouchable.

I'll take a 20kwh Powerwalls for $4k installed please!