And don't forget supersonic electric jet. Elon keeps saying he wants to do it, every few month. Although if he does, maybe he'll start a new company or do it under SpaceX brand.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
And don't forget supersonic electric jet. Elon keeps saying he wants to do it, every few month. Although if he does, maybe he'll start a new company or do it under SpaceX brand.
2T hits my automatic retirement number. Immediate and no questions asked. Anything before that is fuzzy, but I'm not complaining...
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Starting w. $200B Market Cap as of Jun 30, 2020, then projecting forward 15 years to $40,000B Mkt Cap, that's a CAGR of 42.36%
CAGR Calculator - Calculate Compound Annual Growth Rate Online
That's slightly less than what ARK expects (45%), but the issue remains the time frame.
IMHO, Tesla is setting itself up to have production capacity to manufacture 20% of the World's battery cells by 2020 in 10 years from now (3 TWh / 15 TWh).
Now the real question is, "Does the ROW even try to catch up with Tesla?" Or do they just let them run (and sue them later
)If it turns out that by 2030 the ROW is not trying to 'accelerate the transition', then Elon and Tesla will simply keep on hoovering, continuing to build out battery capacity to provide enough for the entire world.
How long would it take to do 5x more batteries (3/15 TWh)? Well, going from 3 to 15 TWh of batts in 5 years is only a CAGR of 38%.
So indeed, Tesla can grow at (or below) Analyst projections for the next 10 years, then have that growth slow down incrementally over the next 5 years, and STILL reach $40T Market Cap by mid-2035
Of course by then, TSLA will have 40B shares and Elon will own 49%...
Cheers!
Starting w. $200B Market Cap as of Jun 30, 2020, then projecting forward 15 years to $40,000B Mkt Cap, that's a CAGR of 42.36%
CAGR Calculator - Calculate Compound Annual Growth Rate Online
That's slightly less than what ARK expects (45%), but the issue remains the time frame.
IMHO, Tesla is setting itself up to have production capacity to manufacture 20% of the World's battery cells by 2020 in 10 years from now (3 TWh / 15 TWh).
Now the real question is, "Does the ROW even try to catch up with Tesla?" Or do they just let them run (and sue them later
If it turns out that by 2030 the ROW is not trying to 'accelerate the transition', then Elon and Tesla will simply keep on hoovering, continuing to build out battery capacity to provide enough for the entire world.
How long would it take to do 5x more batteries (3/15 TWh)? Well, going from 3 to 15 TWh of batts in 5 years is only a CAGR of 38%.
So indeed, Tesla can grow at (or below) Analyst projections for the next 10 years, then have that growth slow down incrementally over the next 5 years, and STILL reach $40T Market Cap by mid-2035
Of course by then, TSLA will have 40B shares and Elon will own 49%...
Cheers!
I hope you are right. As you pointed out, there is a path to get there, but t’s a long one and full of obstacles. It would be great to see the juggernaut get there by 2035.
It looks like she must have the FSD beta and was letting the car drive her to drop off her ballot. Good to see it working.
If a man has good corn or wood, or boards, or pigs, to sell, or can make better chairs or knives, crucibles or church organs, than anybody else, you will find a broad hard-beaten road to his house, though it be in the woods.
— Ralph Waldo Emerson
Also referred to in law as if you " build a better mouse trap " it is not a monopoly.
— Ralph Waldo Emerson
Also referred to in law as if you " build a better mouse trap " it is not a monopoly.
Mike Smith
Active Member
Yes, let's attack the mods every time they do even a minimal amount of moderating with extremely easy to follow rules and someone pulls a juvenile 'I'm taking my ball and going home.. AND IT'S ALL THEIR FAULT!!' routine. I thank the mods for their efforts to keep this thread to a manageable 40 pages of posts per day and we shouldn't be discouraging them.
Of course not everyone will agree with every topic that is banned (there are thousands of users and two mods, so it's going to happen), but is it that difficult to just not post about it? Leaving the site completely because you can't handle not posting about a single topic or getting offended about it is ridiculous.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Legitimately, there is some heavy-handed moderating that goes on here.
I've literally been threatened with a ban . . . for click LIKE on a post. No joke.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Curious what TSLA/Starlink portfolio ratio folks here are considering if Starlink spins off? It's been hard to find another stock that you guys might replace TSLA with....
Yes, that was exactly my point. And if you were reading carefully, I brought the ATT picture up only to 2019, as after that is when their merger attempts with TimeWarner finally went through, even further cementing their astonishing grip on their industry. Didn't want to go there.I'm more of a picture kinda guy (picture from 2016)..
:format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7336991/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-24%20at%202.21.23%20PM.png)
So we'll see Tesla get broken up (Vehicles, Energy, Autonomy, etc) and then come all back together in 30 years even more valuable than before? So we're thinking a 50T+ Market cap?
HODL!!!!!
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Starting w. $200B Market Cap as of Jun 30, 2020, then projecting forward 15 years to $40,000B Mkt Cap, that's a CAGR of 42.36%
CAGR Calculator - Calculate Compound Annual Growth Rate Online
That's slightly less than what ARK expects (45%), but the issue remains the time frame.
IMHO, Tesla is setting itself up to have production capacity to manufacture 20% of the World's battery cells by 2020 in 10 years from now (3 TWh / 15 TWh).
Now the real question is, "Does the ROW even try to catch up with Tesla?" Or do they just let them run (and sue them later
If it turns out that by 2030 the ROW is not trying to 'accelerate the transition', then Elon and Tesla will simply keep on hoovering, continuing to build out battery capacity to provide enough for the entire world.
How long would it take to do 5x more batteries (3/15 TWh)? Well, going from 3 to 15 TWh of batts in 5 years is only a CAGR of 38%.
So indeed, Tesla can grow at (or below) Analyst projections for the next 10 years, then have that growth slow down incrementally over the next 5 years, and STILL reach $40T Market Cap by mid-2035
Of course by then, TSLA will have 40B shares and Elon will own 49%...
Cheers!
Imagine if Tesla corner bright engineers*, set up an internal parts bin, world experts in HVAC, casting, cells (other companies fail to scale), mining, materials science, Artificial Intelligence, cloud services (AI, Compute, Data), autonomous driving, robotaxis, insurance, flying, huge demand in Boring tunnels, pollution recognised as truly evil (ICE banned), cheap electricity, off grid homes, DNA/RNA replication, replace Boeing as USA (electric) airliners, enterprise software (based on internal systems/cloud scaling) etc
Using your calculator...
"Over the course of 10 years/months your investment grew from 400.0 to 40000.0. Its compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is 58.49 %"
The key part is... "other companies fail to scale" - a lesson Elon has learned is not to wait for others, let them grow/innovate but be ready to do the work himself. It is hard, maybe unlikely but.... it IS possible!
*young bright engineers know that Musk companies are the best, best work, least politics, least beancounters, best on CV, hard work, less wages, high stock options - but when poached, they are valued by others and have to be paid LOTS.
It looks like she must have the FSD beta and was letting the car drive her to drop off her ballot. Good to see it working.
With her boots Soul Pedal driving would be impossible.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
I think there are
HTH.
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bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Curious what TSLA/Starlink portfolio ratio folks here are considering if Starlink spins off? It's been hard to find another stock that you guys might replace TSLA with....
I would be dropping so much % into Starlink. Honestly, I could see my portfolio consisting of only TSLA, Starlink, and perhaps 1-3 other stocks (NFLX, FB, and MSFT).
Gene Munster 10 minute interview of independent Tesla analyst Matt Joyce on Loup TV 4 days ago. Matt says Tesla will own auto, energy & ridesharing markets, around 9 minute mark.
Loup TV 020: Tesla's Underappreciated Opportunities | Loup Ventures
Loup TV 020: Tesla's Underappreciated Opportunities | Loup Ventures
Hahaha.When I wrote this two months ago I was halfway joking...
Since then a handful of noteworthy people are openly and with some degree of seriousness discussing 10, 20 and 40T valuations. Even august AudobonB - wow!
Welcome to the raging bull pen!
I go away for half the day and I come back to see this - yowchamagowcha, what is the world coming to? Besides, Gussie's name is Augustus, not August.
Here, in my defense: never, never never would I ever have said anything nicer than "Get off crack" to someone who said to me in September 2019 that the Fed would be injecting $9 trillion into the monetary system in the subsequent twelve months. THAT truth is, to me, more astonishing than envisioning TSLA having a 14-figure market capitalization in fifteen years.
She could have been driving from the back seat. Did you see those shoes?It looks like she must have the FSD beta and was letting the car drive her to drop off her ballot. Good to see it working.
My thoughts on the long term financial situation and Tesla's mission.
Prior to Battery Day Tesla was achieving the mission of accelerating clean energy and transport, BD definitely accelerated the acceleration.
Between now and 2030 it will become apparent that the mission is a success (as far as is possible), Tesla can still build new types of vehicles, and electrify more types of transport.
By success I think EVs will not just achieve price parity with ICE, between now and 2030 EV price will drop to well below those of a comparable ICE, with lower running costs, and a more enjoyable experience.
In terms of grid electricity renewable energy and storage will definitely disrupt the existing industry to a point where the whole approach to the electricity grid will eventually need a rethink.
In terms of mission, what may happen is Tesla's mission gets redefined more broadly, to something like, "A sustainable, happy and healthy human existence, in harmony with rebuilding natural eco-systems".
In terms of the more broadly defined mission, making money will still be compatible with solving problems, in this context housing and food production could be on the agenda, absorbing CO2, and cooling oceans would definitely be on the agenda.
Even given a very broad mission and rapid expansion into a diverse array of industries, it is unclear at which point Tesla eventually earns so much money that making profits and paying dividends are unavoidable.
From broader human perspective - we are all aware of the Feudal Era where land was owned by lords and peasant farmers paid rent.
The Fossil Fuel era was a kind of Feudal Era, there was the illusion of freedom but ultimately a scarce resource was controlled by a group of rich and powerful people. With clean energy and transport, there is a kind of energy democracy, you are now free to own land, and make your own energy, which can help power your own transport.
The next Feudal Era might be data/AI, democracy needs to ensure we control data/AI, data/AI doesn't control us.
With the internet we are all free to mine data, and access to up to date accurate data is better than ever.
When a Feudal Era collapses there is a chance for democracy, quality of life and equality to progress, it is important to seize those opportunities. It has been a long time since the last one..
Prior to Battery Day Tesla was achieving the mission of accelerating clean energy and transport, BD definitely accelerated the acceleration.
Between now and 2030 it will become apparent that the mission is a success (as far as is possible), Tesla can still build new types of vehicles, and electrify more types of transport.
By success I think EVs will not just achieve price parity with ICE, between now and 2030 EV price will drop to well below those of a comparable ICE, with lower running costs, and a more enjoyable experience.
In terms of grid electricity renewable energy and storage will definitely disrupt the existing industry to a point where the whole approach to the electricity grid will eventually need a rethink.
In terms of mission, what may happen is Tesla's mission gets redefined more broadly, to something like, "A sustainable, happy and healthy human existence, in harmony with rebuilding natural eco-systems".
In terms of the more broadly defined mission, making money will still be compatible with solving problems, in this context housing and food production could be on the agenda, absorbing CO2, and cooling oceans would definitely be on the agenda.
Even given a very broad mission and rapid expansion into a diverse array of industries, it is unclear at which point Tesla eventually earns so much money that making profits and paying dividends are unavoidable.
From broader human perspective - we are all aware of the Feudal Era where land was owned by lords and peasant farmers paid rent.
The Fossil Fuel era was a kind of Feudal Era, there was the illusion of freedom but ultimately a scarce resource was controlled by a group of rich and powerful people. With clean energy and transport, there is a kind of energy democracy, you are now free to own land, and make your own energy, which can help power your own transport.
The next Feudal Era might be data/AI, democracy needs to ensure we control data/AI, data/AI doesn't control us.
With the internet we are all free to mine data, and access to up to date accurate data is better than ever.
When a Feudal Era collapses there is a chance for democracy, quality of life and equality to progress, it is important to seize those opportunities. It has been a long time since the last one..
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