Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hobbes]

Nearby to where I live there is an endangered toad. Legislation was passed requiring that a fee be paid by anyone building in the area, as a sort of insurance, if, at some time in the future it is found a toad habitat might have been impacted by the construction.

A friend was building a house and mentioned this requirement. I looked it up. The legislation never provided any funding for enforcement. The requirement had no teeth. I told him not to pay the ransom. He didn't. Over a decade later nothing has come of it.

Perhaps, this is a similar thing going on in Germany. Tesla knows there is no enforcement, nor, a punishment clause for non-compliance and from a legal standpoint it is actually a non-issue.

If it were important to the construction it will be dealt with smoothly, as everything usually is when a Gigafactory is built.

Giga Berlin Construction was partly stopped for that before the deadline was extended for the first time.

 

[2daMoon]

Giga Berlin Construction was partly stopped for that before the deadline was extended for the first time.

Yeah, and as I recall, after all the fuss died down in the media about the evil Tesla wantonly killing all the forest creatures in Germany, there really wasn't any significant impact to the overall construction schedule.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I made a guestimate type statement to a group of colleagues that there was about 5000 new cars per day WITHOUT GAS TANKS hitting the streets, and that at some point as that number climbs the oil industry would have to take notice.

How close do you think I was. World wide, only BEV. Opinions welcome.

Cheers

 

[hobbes]

Electric Cars Are Better for the Planet – and Often Your Budget, Too

Interesting graphic in there on EV vs gas car cost and CO2 emissons.

 

[JustMe]

Nearby to where I live there is an endangered toad. Legislation was passed requiring that a fee be paid by anyone building in the area, as a sort of insurance, if, at some time in the future it is found a toad habitat might have been impacted by the construction.

Well I, for one, hope that toad is okay...

 

[JustMe]

I made a guestimate type statement to a group of colleagues that there was about 5000 new cars per day WITHOUT GAS TANKS hitting the streets, and that at some point as that number climbs the oil industry would have to take notice.

How close do you think I was. World wide, only BEV. Opinions welcome.

Cheers

According to the EV sales blog, there were about 3 million plug-in electric vehicles sold in 2020 worldwide, of which about 2 million were BEVs.

Which works out to ~ 5,500 gas tank-free cars hitting the road every day.

Spot on!

EV Sales: Global Top 20 November 2020

 

[Webeevdrivers]

According to the EV sales blog, there were about 3 million plug-in electric vehicles sold in 2020 worldwide, of which about 2 million were BEVs (no gas tank).

Which works out to ~ 5,500 gas tank-free cars hitting the road every day.

Spot on!

EV Sales: Global Top 20 November 2020

Woohoo. Add I would rather be a little under. And I'm willing to bet that will double in the next 3 years. (Just another guess).

 

[2daMoon]

Well I, for one, hope that toad is okay...

The toad is thriving. Always was.

The friends of the toad got other legislation to build special culverts to channel the toads so they could cross the roads en mass without getting squished. In the end they had a lot of fat snakes living in those culverts and most of the toads still went on across the road and got squished anyway.

Every indication is that a small group of people have made a hobby out of inconveniencing other groups of people and the effort is more about ego and power than it is about toad preservation.

The opposition groups in Germany (and elsewhere) who operate in such a way as described above do deserve to be heard, and, they should also listen as well. To their neighbors, to their officials, and to understand how Tesla's prime directive is to save the freakin' planet and the human race. Them and theirs included.

 

[canoemore]

Is that why no one buys ICE trucks either? Because the big hit to range when towing makes them a pretty unattractive option? /s

What I've noticed in the real world is it's the expense of towing with ICE trucks that causes people to primarily tow locally. Contractors haul backhoes and tool trailers to the jobsite, people making runs to the dump, people picking up furniture and appliances from the big box stores, etc. None of these uses is beyond the range of a Cybertruck when towing.

There are very few use cases where it makes sense to tow pick-up truck sized loads long-distance. That's why we have semi trucks. Most RV'ers only hop 100-200 miles (or less) per change of campground. Because it costs 100 bucks a pop to fuel up and they don't want to be doing that but once a day. That said, I still don't see the Cybertruck being very popular amongst full time RV'ers. Don't worry, the market for Cybertruck is huge and extends well beyond full-time RV'ers!

Gotcha! I’m a complete novice re: towing, so this was informative - thanks.

I will keep my optimism in check

 

[adiggs]

I'm a big fan of the way Churchill took his martinis.

Ingredients: Teslaquila, lime juice, simple syrup, triple sec.

Directions: mix 3 oz Teslaquila with one cube of ice. That's it. Enjoy!

I like it = grab the extra ingredients that sounds good, and then ignore them

 

[generalenthu]

This is a monthly options expiration day. More interest than a typical weekly, but less than a quarterly (triple witching).

TSLA share volume had been rather light for such a day. That made it easier for big options writers (mainly hedge funds and market makers) to target the share prices that allow them to keep the largest amount of their premiums. Meanwhile, many retail option owners get shut out.

The manipulators hope to trigger the stop loss limits of retail investors, which leads to a cascading effect. Such manipulation has costs, but the options expire today and share trades can be reversed on Tuesday.

The intended victims today appear to be retail stock traders and call buyers at strikes from $820 to $840. It's likely only a temporary storm for HODL long-term shareholders.

While you're technically right today is a monthly expiration, and not a quarterly expiration, this is also a HUGE leaps series expiration. There were about 35-40 million share equivalent net options exposure, that had to be closed, taken delivery on, rolled, or had to be otherwise offset. That's the largest I have seen, and very likely the largest so far, in a single day.

For those of us who have been leveraged thru options, the 2021 leaps series was a big one. I was a bit worried today might be a drag, and it was a bit of a drag, but nothing unusual. we are down ~3x macros. Volume was low perhaps due to the long weekend ahead. We were quite a bit less than average volume (38 MM vs 44 MM per yahoo). All in all pretty happy with today's action which digested this monster series of options. Should be clear sailing without any options related overhang for the rest of the year. We may beat these numbers in 2022, but that'll need the stock to double or more from here I'd guess.

To roaring twenties.

 

[Koper23]

The toad is thriving. Always was.

The friends of the toad got other legislation to build special culverts to channel the toads so they could cross the roads en mass without getting squished. In the end they had a lot of fat snakes living in those culverts and most of the toads still went on across the road and got squished anyway.

Every indication is that a small group of people have made a hobby out of inconveniencing other groups of people and the effort is more about ego and power than it is about toad preservation.

The opposition groups in Germany (and elsewhere) who operate in such a way as described above do deserve to be heard, and, they should also listen as well. To their neighbors, to their officials, and to understand how Tesla's prime directive is to save the freakin' planet and the human race. Them and theirs included.

At least Germany’s auto-industry got another day to not catch up

 

[bkp_duke]

This is an over-interpretation. While it is true that no Model S/X has shipped with 2170 cells, there is no reason why Tesla would not introduce improvements in chemistry to both formats.

BINGO. Person I know says this has been the case. Chemistry improvements are back-ported into the 18650 cells.

That doesn't help with the thermal limitations of the 18650s, but the chemistry is constantly being brought in line with the 2170s.

 

[MC3OZ]

This raises several questions:

1. Will there be 18650 / 2170 versions of these structural packs?
   
2. Will tabless cells be manufactured in 18650/2170 form factors?
3. Who will be manufacturing these packs?
4. How close to mass production is the dry electrode coating process?
5. Does Tesla expect to use 4680 form factor for its entire fleet eventually? If so, what is the timeline?

This is why I think cells don't necessarily need to be tab-less to be in a structural pack:-
Rivian says its battery pack has the highest volumetric energy density in the world, thanks to its cooling strategy - Charged EVs

At the heart of the module is a cooling plate between the upper and lower cell layers. That allows us to control the cooling of those cells in their most efficient medium, which is cooling axially. We pull the heat out of the cell through its center, which is the most efficient way to do it, as opposed to radially. It allows us to pack those cells really close together. This allows us to get the highest volumetric energy density available today.

My other thought is that metals conduct heat fairly efficiently, the contact point for cooling might not matter. Within the pack they want to prevent heat transfer between cells as far as possible, maybe air is sufficient insulation provide only a minimal area of each cell is in contact with adjacent cells.


I also think tab-less 18650 and 2170 will not be a big deal, provided the technology is licensed from Tesla.

For existing lines there are 2 options:-

1. Covert existing 18650 / 2170 lines to tab-less.
2. Covert existing 18650 / 2170 lines to tab-less 4680.

I don't know which of these options requires more time / money.

My best guess is regular Model S/X might have a structural 18650 pack, and Plaid Models might have a structural 4680 pack.

In terms of the immediate Model S/X refresh, we determined yesterday that swapping molds to produce front/rear castings for Model S/X with a structural pack might be difficult.

So one possibility is that Model S/X are built with a 1 or 2 piece rear casting only as per Model Y.
In that case, if an end-cooled 18650 pack was built, it would not initially be used as a structural pack.
Plaid Model S requires new casting machines, and then all Model S/X go could to structural packs at that time. The downside there is that is another significant production change

 

[thx1139]

GM may expand Corvette lineup to include a crossover SUV

Analysts say the new Corvette SUV would likely be electric. Maybe GM should name it the Vette-e. It will probably be named SUV of the year.

Looks to me with this and the Mustang Mach-e that this may be the way that traditional auto manufacturers trying to avoid Osbourning existing vehicles. Simply dont create an electric version of an existing product. Use the name, but make it a different type of vehicle. The Chevy Silverado SUV will be the Chevy Silverado Compact E and it will be a compact electric vehicle.

 

[capster]

GM may expand Corvette lineup to include a crossover SUV

Analysts say the new Corvette SUV would likely be electric. Maybe GM should name it the Vette-e. It will probably be named SUV of the year.

My money is on eVette (like Yvette - Wikipedia.)

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Fri, Jan 15, 2021: (Pre+Main Session Trading)

Headline: "TSLA MMs+Shortz Dig Deeper"

(Pre-Market) data as of 01/15/2021 09:30:02
$850.89 +5.89 +0.7%
Pre-Market Volume: 1,149,730
Pre-Market SP Rge: $859.00 (08:21:46 AM) | $844.00 (06:18:40 AM)
VWAP by 09:30 hrs: $852.99 on 1.658M shares

Traded: (Pre+Main Session) $32,048,707,144.64 ($32.05B)
Volume: (Pre+Main Session) 38,218,416
VWAP: (Pre+Main Session) $838.57

Close: $826.16 / VWAP: 98.52%
TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP
TSLA MaxPain (7:00 A.M.): $550 (+$10 from Thu)

TSLA S&P 500 Weight: 2.001634% (Jan 14)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / FB $783.118B / $715.946B = 109.38%
Note: Yahoo Finance yet to update TSLA Mkt Cap re shares issued Dec 11th (SEC Filing)
​

CEO Comp. Status: (est'd Mkt Cap including Dec 11th shares)

TSLA 30-day Closing Avg Market Cap: $706.48B
TSLA 6-mth Closing Avg Market Cap: $449.30B

Mkt Cap req'd for 8th tranche ($450B) will likely be achieved on Tue, Jan 19, 2021
Nota Bene: Operational milestones are req'd for this tranche.
​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 49.6% (49th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short / Total Volume = 38.4% (45th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt ratio was 0.66% of Short Volume (48th Percentile Rank Exempt)
Comment: Low FINRA proportions indicate heavy participation by MMs​

QOTD: @capster "Holdier than thou" - I like that.

Comment: The 1st Rule of HODL: "When in a hole, stop digging"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[Curt Renz]

While you're technically right today is a monthly expiration, and not a quarterly expiration, this is also a HUGE leaps series expiration...

Excellent added point which I had overlooked. Thanks.

Some may wonder why TSLA experienced this manipulation today, while other stocks not so much. TSLA options appear to be a favorite among newbie traders, who think options are an inexpensive way to riches. They probably think the same about the big lotteries. Eventually they'll learn. Meanwhile, the pros take advantage of them.

By the way, I know the game. During the nineties I daily visited the CBOE to interview market makers for TV, and ate lunch with them in their private lounge. They're the ones who make money with options. Rarely so for retail traders, and almost never for the long run. It's those of us retail investors who buy and hold stock shares for the long run that virtually always come out way on top.

 

[AZRI11]

If it's true (Model S and Model X share the same final production line) that only means one thing, Roadster and Plaid Model S will share the other line. They will both use the same batteries (4680) and pack dimensions should be the same. I expect first delivery of Plaid Model S and Roadster to be in April. Just an educated guess on my part.

 

[Singuy]

If it's true (Model S and Model X share the same final production line) that only means one thing, Roadster and Plaid Model S will share the other line. They will both use the same batteries (4680) and pack dimensions should be the same. I expect first delivery of Plaid Model S and Roadster to be in April. Just an educated guess on my part.

Well Model S and X has the same surface area for structural/battery pack. The Roadster is much shorter than the Model S, it's even smaller than the Model 3 at 4200mm vs 4700mm