Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVWatcher]

So. As far as we know, the Tesla investment in BYD is not real yes? Or is there anything anywhere to suggest theres something to it?

 

[Papafox]

Just for fun, let's try an experiment by looking at the various forces affecting TSLA on Wednesday. NASDAQ futures are up 0.70%. GIven a 2.3X multiplier, TSLA would have a climb of about 0.7% NASDAQ gain x 2.3 = 1.6% TSLA gain on Wednesday. 1.6% of 873 = ~ $14. 873+14= 887.

Now we apply the filters. The upper bollinger band is at 912, so it does not constrain

Market makers want TSLA below 900 on Friday and will add resistance between 890 and 900. Thursdays and Fridays are likely to be more intense than Wednesdays. We'll say no significant interference from MMs on a climb to 887.

Price targets of above 900 and 1000 are common now, so no constraints on 887

There's room for huge error, of course, but my dartboard guesstimate would be 887ish close on Wednesday.

 

[MC3OZ]

So. As far as we know, the Tesla investment in BYD is not real yes? Or is there anything anywhere to suggest theres something to it?

BYD have put out a statement denying it..

 

[lascavarian]

I imagine there are a bunch of hedge funds implementing new risk management policies after last week

This makes some sense. At a buck a contract, seems smart and cheap way to mitigate some new found fears. Hedging the hedging of hedging

 

[NicoV]

AMZN only down 0.3% after Bezos announces he's stepping down as CEO. Wonder if TSLA would react the same way?

I doubt TSLA will go down just because Bezos steps down

 

[NicoV]

This it at the top of my Yahoo Finance news list for TSLA:
Gasoline is becoming worthless
Apparently based on an Adam Jonas analysis.
AJ seems to have started reading this thread.

 

[Lbkmxp100d]

Just for fun, let's try an experiment by looking at the various forces affecting TSLA on Wednesday. NASDAQ futures are up 0.70%. GIven a 2.3X multiplier, TSLA would have a climb of about 0.7% NASDAQ gain x 2.3 = 1.6% TSLA gain on Wednesday. 1.6% of 873 = ~ $14. 873+14= 887.

Now we apply the filters. The upper bollinger band is at 912, so it does not constrain

Market makers want TSLA below 900 on Friday and will add resistance between 890 and 900. Thursdays and Fridays are likely to be more intense than Wednesdays. We'll say no significant interference from MMs on a climb to 887.

Price targets of above 900 and 1000 are common now, so no constraints on 887

There's room for huge error, of course, but my dartboard guesstimate would be 887ish close on Wednesday.

we’ve seen relatively low vol last 2 days considering the move in SP TSLA has seen. I fully expect MM to have control of that 900 line in sand at the current vol level. However, if vol increases and TSLA continues to climb and we somehow get above upper BB we could see a parabolic move as option seller scramble to delay hedge.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Kelvin out with the details on China again today.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

Anybody else curious about the 18,000 calls at $1700 for Friday? Seems really strange that anyone who be buying those. Elon also said he would be off Twitter for a bit. Is there something happening this week? I sure hope not, since I sold a 1000c for Friday that I’m assuming is safe.

I will take the bait!
Here are my guesses:

• Elon announces that for the last 10 years members of his companies has met regularly to probe and decipher the nature of reality. This team then announce their discovery that the reality is actually 7-dimensional. This opens up for rapid colonization of Mars due to expected though yet to be found shortcuts through mostly space but also(!) partially time. (Elon subsequently unveils/hints that he is - partly - from a nearby future) Rockets will still be useful for some decades - getting a 7D transfer wrong will be ... painful.(The 7D theory will subsequently known as 'strange theory', because you have to be quite strange in order to fully grasp it)
• Elon announces the unexpected part deux of Battery Day, whereby a new alloy, developed by SpaceX, will make batteries 5 times cheaper in 2-3 years.
  
• The Norwegian state oil fund decides that the best way to achieve less global warming and world peace is to donate half their wealth to Elon.
• Warren Buffet will retire. He announces that he now owns a lot of Tesla shares and will place 1/3 of his wealth in Tesla going forward. Also, Instead of donating money to Gates, he will donate money for Elon to build solar homes all over the world.
• EU puts Elon on a permanent retainer in the order of 1 billion euro per year for rapid expansion of solar and battery electric roll-out all over the world, bur particularly in the border regions of EU to combat both climate change and poverty.
  
• Elon will announce a merger of Tesla, SpaceX, Boring and Neuralink into a new company called X. Tesla will buy up a significant share of all Elons other companies using cash on hand and share swapped by a fraction TBD. The new X corporation then immediately announces a 1-10 stock split, based on Teslas pre-merger value. A stock stampede follows, ruining predatory short sellers, and enriching fans and HOLD'ers all over the world. All rejoice in the glory of a better, brighter world!

 

[EVWatcher]

• Elon announces the unexpected part deux of Battery Day, whereby a new alloy, developed by SpaceX, will make batteries 5 times cheaper in 2-3 years.

I enjoyed this. But can we as a forum stop saying x times cheaper? I see this all over the news and articles and it drives me nuts. What does it means? A fifth the cost? 80% cheaper? So say that.

This includes things like X times less

 

[jw934]

But buying such a contract with only three days prior to expiration is like buying a lottery ticket.

Why buy the $1700 call with only 3 days left til expiry?

I think (or guess) that buying the $1700 is to settle a short position margin call. Perhaps purchasing that $1700 calls for cheap is to delay margin call on a bad short position without covering until Monday.

After all, having the $1700 means there is no more risk of infinite loss on the short. i.e. in case TSLA goes over 1700 there can be no additional loss. So this should reduce margin requirement on a huge short bet.

Margin call could be due to a bad bet on a meme stock and hope price will move to a favorable position by Monday.

It could also be due to selling OTM $TSLA calls (uncovered) expiring this Friday last week during the drop. The margin call could have come since TSLA went up by over $70 in the past 2 days.

 

[Rohan]

Even though my new MSLR arrived on 23 December, I thought I'd spec a new refreshed MS just for the LOLs.

Expected delivery (UK) ...2022 (no month indicated)

I'm a bit happier now

 

[saniflash]

I think (or guess) that buying the $1700 is to settle a short position margin call.

agreed. the mirror image of a.

it could also be part of a spread to cross-finance a long position further out (calendar spread) and/or at a lower strike (debit spread)

IMHO it's hard to get really beefy info out of options activities

I'm financing my long LEAPS by selling short-term covered calls against them at prices that would seem ridiculous for most ppl just to collect some pennies in front of the steam-roller

 

[Don TLR]

This is excellent. Relevant because it's worth comparing leadership styles.

Email from Jeff Bezos to employees

Not forward thinking with Ice reference to firing on all cylinders

Will is continue this nice slow trend upwards?

 

[Johan]

Why buy the $1700 call with only 3 days left til expiry?

I think (or guess) that buying the $1700 is to settle a short position margin call. Perhaps purchasing that $1700 calls for cheap is to delay margin call on a bad short position without covering until Monday.

After all, having the $1700 means there is no more risk of infinite loss on the short. i.e. in case TSLA goes over 1700 there can be no additional loss. So this should reduce margin requirement on a huge short bet.

Margin call could be due to a bad bet on a meme stock and hope price will move to a favorable position by Monday.

It could also be due to selling OTM $TSLA calls (uncovered) expiring this Friday last week during the drop. The margin call could have come since TSLA went up by over $70 in the past 2 days.

This makes a lot of sense, thanks. This is one (of the many ways) a holder of a bad short position can "kick the can down the road". Yes it costs as bit but hey at the close yesterday one of those sweet $1700 calls cost between 1-2 cents. So you won't go broke even buying 18.000 of them (if you're a big hedge fund or similar). Now the only thing that's a mystery to me is which "meme stock" you could possibly be referring to

 

[Johan]

I'm financing my long LEAPS by selling short-term covered calls against them at prices that would seem ridiculous for most ppl just to collect some pennies in front of the steam-roller

Yes, but at any given week I promise you you're not going to be finding buyers for weekly calls at more than double the current stock price. Also do you own 1,8 million shares of TSLA to sell those $1700 calls against?

 

[Christine69420]

So how large is the snow plowing market?

This guy:

Video and further plowing discussion here:
Model X Snow Plow

 

[MABMAB]

Just for fun, let's try an experiment by looking at the various forces affecting TSLA on Wednesday. NASDAQ futures are up 0.70%. GIven a 2.3X multiplier, TSLA would have a climb of about 0.7% NASDAQ gain x 2.3 = 1.6% TSLA gain on Wednesday. 1.6% of 873 = ~ $14. 873+14= 887.

Now we apply the filters. The upper bollinger band is at 912, so it does not constrain

Market makers want TSLA below 900 on Friday and will add resistance between 890 and 900. Thursdays and Fridays are likely to be more intense than Wednesdays. We'll say no significant interference from MMs on a climb to 887.

Price targets of above 900 and 1000 are common now, so no constraints on 887

There's room for huge error, of course, but my dartboard guesstimate would be 887ish close on Wednesday.

Just for fun, let’s point out that Bolingbrook bands:
Don’t constrain anything
Are user defined, thus can be made to be nearly any number.

market action is based upon sum of participants not some entity adding resistance.

 

[Johan]

Just for fun, let’s point out that Bolingbrook bands:
Don’t constrain anything
Are user defined, thus can be made to be nearly any number.

market action is based upon sum of participants not some entity adding resistance.

Even though you may not believe in Yahwew you're still going to have to take in to account that a lot of people do of you want to go shopping for bagels on Pesach or Shavuot.

 

[Todd Burch]

I enjoyed this. But can we as a forum stop saying x times cheaper? I see this all over the news and articles and it drives me nuts. What does it means? A fifth the cost? 80% cheaper? So say that.

This includes things like X times less

Example:

Lunch costs $5. A lunch that is five times less:

5 x $5 = $25

$5 - $25 = -$20

So a lunch that’s 5 times less costs -$20.

Me fail math? That’s unpossible!