Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Zero CO2]

Has anyone analyzed the Ford Mach -E demand/market share situation ... for the last week articles have been inundating my news feeds indicating Ford taking share from TSLA i presume it is paid for advertising ... any thoughts ... sorry if already addressed I am way behind on my TMC reading ... new format slowing me down

 

[Nocturnal]

Has anyone analyzed the Ford Mach -E demand/market share situation ... for the last week articles have been inundating my news feeds indicating Ford taking share from TSLA i presume it is paid for advertising ... any thoughts ... sorry if already addressed I am way behind on my TMC reading ... new format slowing me down

It's going to be like any other competitor. Pent up demand and excitement will wear off quickly and then it will plod along as people realize they still have to go to dealerships and can't easily charge on road trips.

 

[15Peter20]

Has anyone analyzed the Ford Mach -E demand/market share situation ... for the last week articles have been inundating my news feeds indicating Ford taking share from TSLA i presume it is paid for advertising ... any thoughts ... sorry if already addressed I am way behind on my TMC reading ... new format slowing me down

It's the same old argument: who really cares about market share as long as TSLA sell every car?
And don't Ford actually have to move some product before claiming some sort of victory?
Ignoring the fact that they are unlikely to make any profit from these things.

 

[tschmidty]

It's the same old argument: who really cares about market share as long as TSLA sell every car?
And don't Ford actually have to move some product before claiming some sort of victory?
Ignoring the fact that they are unlikely to make any profit from these things.

Yeah, I don't understand how delivering 3800 vehicle in Q1 is some huge threat to Tesla's market share. Oh wait, advertising dollars, never mind.

 

[15Peter20]

Yeah, I don't understand how delivering 3800 vehicle in Q1 is some huge threat to Tesla's market share. Oh wait, advertising dollars, never mind.

Aren't they planning on only selling 50,000 this year anyway? So around 7% of Tesla's estimated 2021 deliveries.

 

[traxila]

You wish you can get CDs at 1.6%.

It is called the US ten year treasury and is backed by the full faith and credit of the US government. If you were looking for a ten year CD that is. 1.6% every year for ten years. What could go wrong?

 

[jerry33]

Aren't they planning on only selling 50,000 this year anyway? So around 7% of Tesla's estimated 2021 deliveries.

And mostly in the EU from what I understand.

 

[keydiver]

Has anyone analyzed the Ford Mach -E demand/market share situation ...

Two Bit da Vinci Youtube

 

[Artful Dodger]

One note to this:
View attachment 643768
Don't forget next weeks triple-witching-day. I would bet on at max 700 closing today & ~750 next week. It is not only the max-pain this week, but also preperation & hedging for next week. But the mathematical max-pain for next-week is skewed by 300k(!) sold puts at 20$ (100 pre-split).

Max-Pain is nice & everthing - but i learned that just looking at the bars is often more informative as way ITM/OTM calls/puts are already 90+% delta-hegded and not the battleground.
If we close today at ~699 & blowout to >800 on monday then the option-market could trigger a small gamma-squeeze as there are a LOT of open calls in that area with a swift reversal the day after.

Disclaimer: I sold 800 covered calls & 595 cash/margin secured puts for next week playing that day. I plan on closing the CC today before mondays blowout.
I would not advise you to do the same without your own due diligence.

You're missing an important extra layer occurring today, which I wrote about yesterday. That is, today's Closing Price sets TSLA's weight in the S&P 500 Index for the March 19th Quarterly rebalancing day: "The reference date for weighting is the second Friday of the reweighting month". That's today, March 12th.

Bears want a lower SP today so more TSLA shares will be rebalanced by index funds on Mar 19. It's going be a pitched battle today for the Close, IMO.

TSLA is running at 2.6x beta right now (SP vs "macros" - the NDX (Nasdaq-100). Somebody has their thumb pressing down hard on the 'weigh scale'...

 

[Bobfitz1]

that’s pretty much all i’ve heard too.

the elephant in the room is that the
factory is only about 1/3 the intended size. it went like gangbusters for a couple years and then pretty much fizzled out and nobody has explained why, nor asks tesla about it during quarterlies. they have a boatload of unused land there too.

if it is workforce/housing/water/local infrastructure constraints, i can understand that. if it’s something else, i’m interested in hearing more.

I suspect the main reasons are related to Tesla's advance knowledge of the improvements they could realize in battery manufacturing efficiencies.
Especially the huge reduction in the space required to produce each GWh of batteries going forward. GF1 was planned to triple in size because increasing battery and battery pack production X fold using the pre Battery Day technology would require that.

Manufacturing batteries for a million Tesla EVs now doesn't require a factory the size (or double) what GF1 was planned to become.
It's now possible to locate battery production with the Giga factory building the cars. Doing so further reduces costs. Eliminating the stand alone battery pack by making it a structural portion of the car also reduces the space required. Once you've realized you can produce at the lowest cost
by doing everything at one GF, then of course you stop expanding a factory in a location that doesn't have a large and skilled workforce, ports nearby, etc.

 

[MP3Mike]

the elephant in the room is that the
factory is only about 1/3 the intended size. it went like gangbusters for a couple years and then pretty much fizzled out and nobody has explained why, nor asks tesla about it during quarterlies. they have a boatload of unused land there too.

Part of it is that they figured out how to make the cells in a much more compact space. In 2014 they announced that they would make 35GWh of cells a year by 2020 and they have pretty much achieved that in the existing structure. That combined with the lack of available workforce precluded expanding to the full size they originally planned.

 

[CorneliusXX]

that’s pretty much all i’ve heard too.

the elephant in the room is that the
factory is only about 1/3 the intended size. it went like gangbusters for a couple years and then pretty much fizzled out and nobody has explained why, nor asks tesla about it during quarterlies. they have a boatload of unused land there too.

if it is workforce/housing/water/local infrastructure constraints, i can understand that. if it’s something else, i’m interested in hearing more.

I think this might have seemed like a bigger deal a couple of years ago when GigaNevada was the jewel in the Tesla manufacturing crown - but now why would you want to expand at the Nevada site compared to other places that don't have the same limitations.

Both Fremont and Austin have nearly limitless resources (labour/skills/transport connections) compared to Sparks. If regulations are an issue in Fremont - Focus on Austin.

With the exception of the unproven lithium clay, there doesn't appear to be many relevant natural resources near GigaNevada either?

 

[elasalle]

Found ~40 shares in my recent Covered Call Cushion, converted to Mar 23 800 call

 

[Hrtme]

Has anyone analyzed the Ford Mach -E demand/market share situation ... for the last week articles have been inundating my news feeds indicating Ford taking share from TSLA i presume it is paid for advertising ... any thoughts ... sorry if already addressed I am way behind on my TMC reading ... new format slowing me down

Ford Mustang Mach-E Proves It's A Winner In 456-Mile Tahoe Road Trip

We road trip in the Ford Mustang Mach-E to find out if it's a capable EV. Turns out, it's among the best EVs you can buy today.

insideevs.com

Tesla advantages are software, updates and charging infrastructure. Ford advantages are lots of service centers to get help, and hardware build quality. Can't get locked out etc since ford's use a B pillar combo lock to gain entry.

If charging infrastructure improves alot over time it will help Ford and the ev industry overall most.

I think cost will still matter most to the masses with the EV push though.

 

[jerry33]

Ford Mustang Mach-E Proves It's A Winner In 456-Mile Tahoe Road Trip

We road trip in the Ford Mustang Mach-E to find out if it's a capable EV. Turns out, it's among the best EVs you can buy today.

insideevs.com

Tesla advantages are software, updates and charging infrastructure. Ford advantages are lots of service centers to get help, and hardware build quality. Can't get locked out etc since ford's use a B pillar combo lock to gain entry.

If charging infrastructure improves alot over time it will help Ford and the ev industry overall most.

I think cost will still matter most to the masses with the EV push though.

Tesla mobile service pretty much nullifies lots of service centres.
Ford and hardware build quality--You're kidding, right. The Teslas I've had have had better build quality than the Fords I've driven.

 

[mongo]

You're missing an important extra layer occurring today, which I wrote about yesterday. That is, today's Closing Price sets TSLA's weight in the S&P 500 Index for the March 19th Quarterly rebalancing day: "The reference date for weighting is the second Friday of the reweighting month". That's today, March 12th.

Bears want a lower SP today so more TSLA shares will be rebalanced by index funds on Mar 19. It's going be a pitched battle today for the Close, IMO.

The section you quoted is for the equal weight indexes, not the standard float adjusted market capitalization based S&P 500 index.
The assests under management in the equal weight funds are much lower.

One of the many interlinked S&P 500 Index rules docs that covers how it gets adjusted: https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/d...logy-sp-equity-indices-policies-practices.pdf

 

[lafrisbee]

TSLA MaxPain (7:00 A.M.): $670 (+$7.50 from Thu)

Mar. 12, 7:03 a.m. EST
TSLA Pre-market 677.15 −22.45 (3.21%)

NASDAQ-100 Futures: 7:05 a.m.
-197.00 -1.51% 07:04:35

While the number reads "$670", the charts look like $700.

 

[Nocturnal]

Ford Mustang Mach-E Proves It's A Winner In 456-Mile Tahoe Road Trip

We road trip in the Ford Mustang Mach-E to find out if it's a capable EV. Turns out, it's among the best EVs you can buy today.

insideevs.com

Tesla advantages are software, updates and charging infrastructure. Ford advantages are lots of service centers to get help, and hardware build quality. Can't get locked out etc since ford's use a B pillar combo lock to gain entry.

If charging infrastructure improves alot over time it will help Ford and the ev industry overall most.

I think cost will still matter most to the masses with the EV push though.

It's a little too early to claim that Ford has better build quality in their EVs. For all we know their batteries melt down at 30k miles. For other things like window motors and whatnot, I'm not sure they are really ahead their either. This is Ford we are talking about, not Toyota.

 

[MP3Mike]

Ford advantages are lots of service centers to get help, and hardware build quality.

About that build quality: they have already had to recall some Mach-Es because some bolts weren't properly tightened...

 

[ZsoZso]

It's the same old argument: who really cares about market share as long as TSLA sell every car?
And don't Ford actually have to move some product before claiming some sort of victory?
Ignoring the fact that they are unlikely to make any profit from these things.

Look at the Facts, Ford Mustang is a broken growth story, according to this article, Mustang sales in US peaked in 2000 with 173K units, it was 122K in 2015 and only 72K in 2019. So the question is, can they sell enough Mach-E to counter their losses in ICE mustang sales ? The answer appears NO!
Based on this article their January sales are down ~20% from 2019 to 2021 (no data for 2020). And if you look at Europe or China the Mach-E is a complete failure with not a single unit sold the whole year! They are also losing money on every unit if you do not count the regulatory credit sales, which are just a one-time item anyway.

-- Am I doing this right, Gordo ?