Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Imagine an empty semi going up the hill to pick up the logs, (not old growth please), and then going down the hill fully loaded regenning all the way down, it could end up using very little net energy as a result of the extra weight providing additional regeneration on the way down.

Indeed, this begs for a short-haul LFP battery version of the Class 8 Semi. Distances driven are low, slow average speeds off-road or on logging roads, and rapid cycling throught the workday. LFP will also help being significantly more resistant to the effects of overcharging, and with an inherently longer cycle life than nickle based chemistries. I like it!

Cheers!

 

[Prunesquallor]

Elon simply would want to pass all of it onto the customer - and more if he could. This isn’t even up for debate. He’s been quite clear.

Agree. Tesla turning the rebate into profit is wrong on so many levels. A $29,000 Tesla would be irresistible. The order book would be filled for a year, and people would gladly wait.

 

[Krugerrand]

This is pretty standard procedure for Germany, I think we may be making something out of nothing. None of Tesla plans would be delayed until months form now, someone will intervene and get things straightened out.

Clearly it isn’t nothing or Tesla wouldn’t be sending emails complaining of bureaucratic slowdowns causing construction delays and joining a lawsuit with an environmental group against such inactions.

As I stated before, I do think bureaucrats will cave in the end to avoid embarrassment but the fact is if Tesla doesn’t light their butts on fire they have no intention of moving along with any sense of reasonability or urgency.

 

[lafrisbee]

This ant only "made" more than $50k one year in his life. And that was last year due to TSLA. His understanding is $400k is FILTHY RICH. Whereas "Rich" is when you always have food in your belly, gas in your car, rent paid, and enough money in your pocket to go drinking. Roughly $40k is rich... for us single ants. Now even if you are Rich ($40k), you can still be stupid and broke.
To give you some real numbers, my social security check is $1040/month. I don't have a pension. And yet I can cover all my bills and live comfortably by selling a TSLA share or two each month. I don't have to because I recently came into another economic improvement by dumb luck.

Now This ant wants to give his thoughts on a not yet discussed situation (or if it was I glanced over it).
The REBATE/TAX INCENTIVE. The resulting increased demand will impact Tesla in the desired way. I know we've talked about the money he has in his piggy bank. But he was still limited by the fiscal/social/whatever constraints. His model had to take into consideration how fast the whole nation would adopt EV's, not just how many people wanted to buy an EV. The power/resources and mindset of the United States is making a meaningful quantum leap. It sets up for Tesla.
I think even Elon is going to go to a greater gear with the Federal Green Energy thing. His plan was ambitious and calculated.The Feds just told him to go Plaid ++. And he has to "recalculate." And he is excited about it.

 

[Artful Dodger]

everyday the Nasdaq/QQQ's go higher and TSLA does nothing or underperforms. Just yesterday it grew by like 5%.

Ahaha, no. QQQ +3.65% in the past 5 days.

 

[Mengy]

Agree. Tesla turning the rebate into profit is wrong on so many levels. A $29,000 Tesla would be irresistible. The order book would be filled for a year, and people would gladly wait.

It's important to remember that:

1) Tesla makes a nice profit now on every car sold

2) Tesla's mission, per Elon, is to accelerate the world's transition to green energy, NOT to maximize profits

I doubt very much Tesla would increase prices to garner some extra profits from the rebates. In fact the very recent minor price increases we've seen were likely in prep for Biden's infrastructure plan already.

My gut tells me Tesla will pass all of the rebate onto consumer savings. The good will would do more for the company than trying to cash grab from the government.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Yup

While realistically I couldn't see Tesla tearing down the Giga Berlin factory, I absolutely could see Tesla making it a shell of what was originally planned. Much lower output, no battery production, no energy product production, no design center, no Euro HQ's, etc......meanwhile Tesla sets all that up in a neighboring country. Elon would rub it in Germany's face on a daily basis. Hell Elon would probably fly to Euro HQ's in said neighboring country all the time just to wave at Germany and gloat.

Lots of potential locations in Poland, Hungary, etc. I could definitely see Elon starting high-profile, public discussions with nearby countries, all the while “waiting” for Berlin approval. Edit: Of course he would also, not so quietly, let it slip that VW will be paying for said new Tera Factory.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Ahaha, no. QQQ +3.65% in the past 5 days.

The QQQ is up 3.65% in the past 5 days and Tesla is flat/very slightly down. So the gulf is actually 7.3% just over this past week alone. Tesla should be 2X multiplier. It should be up 7.3% at MINIMUM considering there was a very positive catalyst.

 

[jbcarioca]

Imagine an empty semi going up the hill to pick up the logs, (not old growth please), and then going down the hill fully loaded regenning all the way down, it could end up using very little net energy as a result of the extra weight providing additional regeneration on the way down.

This principle has been applied with the world's largest EV:

eMining AG Battery conversion of diesel driven mining dump trucks

eMining Switzerland is speciallized in the conversion of heavy duty dump trucks for the mining Industry. Battery conversion a sustainable opportunity for mines.

www.emining.ch

For many logging and mining applications even recharging is often unneeded because regeneration loaded on the way down often produces more energy than is used going uphill empty. This seems to be one of the very most beneficial applications of BEV's.

 

[PlaidCPA]

IMO Tesla is not moving higher with tons of good news and macro tailwinds means that all reasonable people understand that its more probable than not that this infrastructure bill will not pass. I support this opinion as well.

This bill is just a bunch of stimulus that will create temporary jobs and fill up pockets of NGOs and construction unions which is not acceptable.

I support Joe Manchins and David Friedburgs interpretation of the Infrastructure bill. (Note: both are life long Democrats)

For more details see below:
1. Joe Manchins take:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...bd53c6-97da-11eb-a6d0-13d207aadb78_story.html
2. David Friedburg take: (skip to :40 if busy)

Also, I would support Infrastructure bill without EV part. Tesla will benefit in the long run more but the EV competition will suffer. As a shareholder this outcome is ok with me.

 

[dhanson865]

What defines a good day?

When I don't have to use my AK

 

[jerry33]

Imagine an empty semi going up the hill to pick up the logs, (not old growth please)

Unless things have changed, it's virtually all old growth. Even the mild climate of Vancouver Island and friends doesn't allow for anything near rapid forest recovery.

 

[Nocturnal]

It's important to remember that:

1) Tesla makes a nice profit now on every car sold

2) Tesla's mission, per Elon, is to accelerate the world's transition to green energy, NOT to maximize profits

I doubt very much Tesla would increase prices to garner some extra profits from the rebates. In fact the very recent minor price increases we've seen were likely in prep for Biden's infrastructure plan already.

My gut tells me Tesla will pass all of the rebate onto consumer savings. The good will would do more for the company than trying to cash grab from the government.

Raising prices in response to the rebate would be a bad look from both the consumer and governmental perspectives. Now, if they took that opportunity to translate cost savings into higher margins by keep prices flat for a while that would be fine by me. Assuming they were still heavily demand constrained of course.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Raising prices in response to the rebate would be a bad look from both the consumer and governmental perspectives. Now, if they took that opportunity to translate cost savings into higher margins by keep prices flat for a while that would be fine by me. Assuming they were still heavily demand constrained of course.

Maybe a good compromise is Tesla raises the price of the 3/Y now(like within then next month) by 1-2k and then essentially adopt the policy of no more price cuts for years.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

IMO Tesla is not moving higher with tons of good news and macro tailwinds means that all reasonable people understand that its more probable than not that this infrastructure bill will not pass. I support this opinion as well.

They could pass this bill tomorrow, there's maybe 3 Dems half-heartedly standing in the way. They can be bought off and/or leaned on with ease. Or you buy off some moderate Republican with pork.

Manchin is just looking for an handout like everyone else, and he'll fold rather quickly I'm sure.

This bill is just a bunch of stimulus that will create temporary jobs and fill up pockets of NGOs and construction unions which is not acceptable.

That's kinda what stimulus is, a bunch of fuel for high-paying physical labor jobs. In the near term there's no avenue to replacing our horrendously inefficient system of getting infrastructure done, so this is what we're stuck with. Half the money going into the wrong pockets.

Also, I would support Infrastructure bill without EV part. Tesla will benefit in the long run more but the EV competition will suffer. As a shareholder this outcome is ok with me.

That aligns with creating shareholder wealth, but is diametrically opposed to the mission and Master Plan. Which way do you think Elon prefers?

It's gonna be ugly and inefficient, but it'll be a net positive in the end. I was furious to see Michigan union-loving politician named Energy Secretary, but I'm loving nearly everything I'm hearing of their actual plans.

The F-35 program is going to cost us a similar amount to this stimulus bill while providing nearly zero military value and net negative geopolitical value. I'll take a wasteful infrastructure bill over the more typical nonsense any day.

 

[ggies07]

Maybe a good compromise is Tesla raises the price of the 3/Y now(like within then next month) by 1-2k and then essentially adopt the policy of no more price cuts for years.

No. No. NO. The whole point is to make the car less expensive. That's the point of the gov't money. Otherwise, and I say this as a liberal, we don't need the gov't giving cash to the private industry. The new admin isn't doing this as a result of one company's supply and demand, they are doing it to make it easier for others to afford the next generation of transportation.

God, this is ****ing rocket science.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Get a life people, stop watching the ticker, live a little. New thread: What are you doing today other than watching red and green tickers?

I'm at work. Watching the ticker is one of the only fun things I can do during my day. But thanks for your concern.

 

[eloder]

No. No. NO. The whole point is to make the car less expensive. That's the point of the gov't money. Otherwise, and I say this as a liberal, we don't need the gov't giving cash to the private industry. The new admin is doing this as a result of supply and demand, they are doing it to make it easier for others to afford the next generation of transportation.

God, this is ****ing rocket science.

It's probably a worse experience overall though if the waitlist for a Tesla grows to 12+ months. Imagine the dissatisfaction of delivery hell from when Model 3s were first starting to ramp, multiplied tenfold.

More revenue from Tesla can translate to cheaper, non-subsidized cars from increased R&D + more cash to expand operations, whereas not raising prices will result in no improvements to Tesla's long-term production.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

No. No. NO. The whole point is to make the car less expensive. That's the point of the gov't money. Otherwise, and I say this as a liberal, we don't need the gov't giving cash to the private industry.

God, this is ****ing rocket science.

This is such a bizarre reaction. Once the EV credit is passed, the car will be less expensive. If Tesla raises prices by 2k and the credit is 10k, the net cost of the vehicle is 8K less. Some ***ing rocket science huh

Also, I'd say you need to come back to reality. The government has been handing out money to the private industry to the tune of trillions over the past 40 years with a lot of that going to the fossil fuel industry. Tesla took on all the risk itself, raised capital all by itself which meant dilution to shareholders, and had to deal with margin compression due to unfairly being penalized by the way the EV tax credit was implemented the first time. So sorry but anyone saying it's wrong for Tesla to take back some of that margin they essentially had to give away when the original tax credit expired UNFAIRLY for Tesla.......I'll just simply say I disagree.

 

[Buckminster]

I think if officials don’t pull their heads out of their butts it could come to that.

No country and their countrymen like to be embarrassed, especially not a proud people. Tesla isn’t advocating doing anything illegal, untoward, unsavory or otherwise. Just gets off your duffs, have some sense of logic, reasonability and urgency.

I believe German bureaucracy will cave or Elon will knock down the factory, replant the trees and go play in a more receptive sandbox. The latter would be disastrous to Germany in the end.

It’s time right NOW for all peoples to get serious. It’s time to end the shenanigans of various industries. Stupidity, stubbornness and the like gets us all dead.

This is Europe - the cradle of bureaucracy.

France would be far worse than this. German efficiency is still a thing - at least relative to some other European countries. Progress has succeeded my expectations. UK would have been no different - look at our big infrastructure projects. Comparisons to Shanghai and Austin are tough given their speed.

Tesla are of course right to keep the pressure on. Bear with Berlin - it's gonna be great.