Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Pezpunk]

i'm supposed to be drawing down my stake in preparation for early retirement, but i'm addicted to dips like these. had to increase my position by 150 shares at 706. sigh.

 

[StealthP3D]

Uh- the dude in the back seat was dead.

Your alternative to "TACC was engaged" is "Guy is fatally injured in drivers seat but decides to move into the back to deliver some FUD as he lay dying"?

Common sense indeed.

No, I'm assuming we don't have enough facts to know how he got in the back seat and that he was the one driving. We don't know but it certainly wouldn't be new or novel if the dead driver was found in the backseat. We don't even know if the guy in the backseat was the driver! Let the investigation complete before jumping to wild conclusions. Sheesh, you are no better than the media!

 

[ruralectric]

Why do you assume there was no one in the driver seat? We need to wait for the investigation to be completed before jumping to unwarranted conclusions. Anyone who has been paying attention the last several years knows how irresponsible the media has been with any accident involving a Tesla.

Common sense says the most likely scenario is the driver was driving irresponsibly fast, lost control and crashed into a tree. If no one was found in the driver's seat it's probably because he climbed into the backseat after the crash in an attempt to get out. We won't know until the investigation is complete.

You are playing right into the hands of the people that bring you news stories that have repeatedly demonstrated are unreliable.

My thought as well. Whether positive or negative for Tesla, we need to know the facts, and that will take some time. Hopefully a few of those fancy homes have NEST cams (or whatever they're called) that will help determine exactly what happened.

 

[Nocturnal]

My thought as well. Whether positive or negative for Tesla, we need to know the facts, and that will take some time. Hopefully a few of those fancy homes have NEST cams (or whatever they're called) that will help determine exactly what happened.

I'm sure Tesla has plenty of data, possibly even on board camera info, that will at least confirm/deny the driver issue.

What you’re suggesting makes too much sense for the fanboys on this board who engage in the same type of thinking as TSLAQ.

That's such a lazy way to avoid any counter argument. "urr fanboy"

 

[Discoducky]

Here's where I've determined that the car crashed. The fire hydrant and manhole are just to the left of the yellow line and somewhat below the arrowhead. That's more obvious in a Google Earth expanded view:

View attachment 654825

View attachment 654824

No lane lines, no AP.
No seatbelt, no AP or TACC.
No driver weight in seat, no AP or TACC.

This short of distance, this kind of road, no driver in driver's seat. Seems to me they should have looked for footsteps of someone getting out of the driver's door.

My hunch is that someone was showing off launch mode, they had their seatbelt on and the airbag saved them, they got out and are at large. But this is just a guess.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Sheesh I’m honestly pretty amazed we’re going under 700. So glad I don’t play short term calls except that one time a couple weeks ago. Every time the set up looks good to bust higher with good data it gets dropped so easily

 

[StealthP3D]

What you’re suggesting makes too much sense for the fanboys on this board who engage in the same type of thinking as TSLAQ.

Maybe you missed the truth of what's happening here, but the people who want to jump to the conclusion that the Tesla did this on it's own, on Autopilot, are not Tesla fan boys (who are recommending not jumping to conclusions until the investigation has been completed). It's wild speculation at this point that Autopilot was engaged.

 

[JRP3]

No lane lines, no AP.

Apparently that's not always the case.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1383917552762384386

 

[Nocturnal]

No lane lines, no AP.
No seatbelt, no AP or TACC.
No driver weight in seat, no AP or TACC.

This short of distance, this kind of road, no driver in driver's seat. Seems to me they should have looked for footsteps of someone getting out of the driver's door.

My hunch is that someone was showing off launch mode, they had their seatbelt on and the airbag saved them, they got out and are at large. But this is just a guess.

If CNBC, the NYTimes and all the other idiots out there can speculate, then so can I. A drunk driver fleeing the scene would solve ALL of this. It's late and everyone has been drinking. "Hey, take me out in the car and show Bob what it can do". Covering for a family member is not uncommon. Yes, wild speculation here but anyone holding me to a higher standard than the Old Gray Lady needs to adjust their mindset.

Apparently that's not always the case.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1383917552762384386

That's the only time I've ever seen this. With that guy's recent history I don't have complete trust. In any case, the SPEED limit for autopilot is still there. AP won't go over 35 in a residential area like that.

 

[Unpilot]

Bah....I'm going for a walk

 

[corduroy]

Sold a $650 put and bought a couple 4/30 $800 calls on this dip. I expect it to be reversed shortly.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Sheesh I’m honestly pretty amazed we’re going under 700. So glad I don’t play short term calls except that one time a couple weeks ago. Every time the set up looks good to bust higher with good data it gets dropped so easily

I would be jumping up and down waving my hands for you to BUY right now, but the pricing isn't going down on options. Bought a $800c for 4/30 @ $12 20 minutes ago, now it's MORE expensive and the share price is down $20!

I guess this is just a melee and IV spikes a lot. Good time to sell puts I assume? Not interested!

 

[scaesare]

Honestly, I know the type in surgery... it’s not surprising he is a deeply competitive person, but what isn’t seen is he probably envies your certainty, conviction and ability to enjoy all things Tesla. He’s trying to frustrate you by never being convinced, and he is passive aggressive because he wants to cause you stress about his situation.
Best thing you can do in this situation is not play ball. Start talking up the Taycan, all the while accumulating more shares of TSLA. Start saying things he doesn’t expect, “I wish I could afford a Taycan. It’s clearly a cooler car in every way. “ Then every night before bed, have a good laugh about it with your wife.

Obligatory:

 

[tschmidty]

IV shooting up. 4/30 $800c is now more expensive than 5 mins ago with SP @ $715.

Yeah, it's really odd. I am wanting to buy back/roll some covered calls and they are staying stubbornly expensive even with this drop.

 

[Singuy]

TACC will go whatever speed you want- maybe he "thought" he'd turned on AP but only turned on TACC?

Would explain ability to accelerate without someone in the seat, but it'd just keep going straight when it came to a turn.

That's 32,000 percent user error of course, even beyond the idiotic getting out of the seat in the first place bit.

No lane lines, no AP.
No seatbelt, no AP or TACC.
No driver weight in seat, no AP or TACC.

View attachment 655022

This short of distance, this kind of road, no driver in driver's seat. Seems to me they should have looked for footsteps of someone getting out of the driver's door.

My hunch is that someone was showing off launch mode, they had their seatbelt on and the airbag saved them, they got out and are at large. But this is just a guess.

Yup, and they are probably not coming clean probably because it's a young guy part of that rich family who will be charged with manslaughter.

Always go with the more obvious clues vs Tesla decided to accelerate super fast with old people in the back.

 

[SOULPEDL]

The question is.
Buy at open or wait for the dip ?

I let the Chair Gods decide - placed an order for 25 chairs at 700 and went to bed last night.
I did not think it would hit. Wow.

 

[Mengy]

Apparently that's not always the case.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1383917552762384386

I drive a 2015 Subaru Crosstrek. It has cruise control. If I am on a 35mph road with a 15mph hairpin turn at the end of it, and if I set the cruise control up to 45 mph and let the car drive at that speed into the hairpin, I won't be able to navigate that hairpin successfully.

Want to know what prevents this from happening? I'm driving the car. I'm in control of the car and all of it's navigation aids.

Same goes for any car, including a Tesla. If a driver engages autopilot on a road like that and the Model S accelerates up to 20 mph over the speed limit erroneously, I DISENGAGE THE AUTOPILOT!!! If the car is barrelling towards a sharp turn way too fast, I DISENGAGE THE AUTOPILOT because I'm driving the car and I see the turn coming!!!

Tesla autopilot is not full self driving, no more than Subaru cruise control is a failsafe way to control my Crosstrek's speed. Drive the damn car, use the aids all you want but maintain control yourself and use those aids wisely and responsibly. Tesla autopilot is not a reason to STOP DRIVING THE CAR!!?!?!?

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Uh...dude.

YOU are the one who suggested the guy in the backseat was the driver.




Now you're yelling at me that we SHOULD WAIT FOR FACTS AND NOT JUMP TO WILD CONCLUSIONS.

As if "Most likely the guy who sustained fatal injury in the crash then decided to move to the back seat for REASONS! while dying" isn't a wild conclusion.


It's like you're incapable of not arguing with any post I make, no matter how ridiculous an argument you need to present to do so.

Knightshade. I'm one of those who like the skepticism you often provide here. I agree there is often too much consensus and 'Tesla is never wrong' sentiment here.

That said. While we don't know what happened here yet the only reason anyone is blaming this on AP is that it's a Tesla. There is zero possibility that any police or any other rescue personnel on site could determine this. It's all based on 'there was no one in the driver seat'.

So what is the likeliest scenario here? Somehow they managed to get AP working getting around a bunch of safety features on a road where it wouldn't work anyway. Or the person driving ran off. Which happens in hundreds, if not thousands, of car crashes every year. This was just before midnight on a weekend. A drunk driver can not be ruled out. There's also the slight chance the driver somehow managed to get into another seat. Maybe his door was blocked from the crash and he tried to reach one of the back doors? Unlikely but just as likely as AP being at fault.

We don't know yet. It may well be the fault of Tesla but the only reason AP is blamed is Tesla. If it had been a Cadillac everyone would just have assumed a driver ran off in the initial reporting.

 

[StealthP3D]

Sheesh I’m honestly pretty amazed we’re going under 700. So glad I don’t play short term calls except that one time a couple weeks ago. Every time the set up looks good to bust higher with good data it gets dropped so easily

I've been expecting lower prices for some time now. One thing I've learned is the share price of good companies that have appreciated quickly can go down , and sometimes by a lot, right when it seems like everything is coming together. It's very difficult to develop a "baseline" of what and when the market is valuing and when it will change it's mind. This is called volatility and Tesla will not be lacking for that for a very long time.

If this drop is caused primarily by the FUD and speculation surrounding the recent crash it will recover very quickly. But a longer term correction cannot be ruled out. Remember, volatility. Lacking a strong positive catalyst, I think the latter is more likely but I would never sell based on that because it's impossible to rule out a "Goldilocks" market scenario and I don't want to risk being left out. So I will ride it down. No big deal either way.

 

[lafrisbee]

The most recent 5 years I have been professionally occupied with leading research teams who had to investigate deadly accidents.
What we are doing here on this forum is wild guessing from limited data about what could probably have caused this accident.
The teams that researched the accidents of which I know all about now, consisted of highly knowledgable professionals who could draw logical conclusions from details that I as chairman could understand when presented to me, but never would have found out myself.
So it is recommendable to be holding back on conclusions about what may have happened.
First and foremost: no matter what exactly happened: there are families involved who are in very deep distress because of this tragedy.
It will suit us so much better to show compassion for this in stead of judging.

OK, lets not guess....
So tell me...when a car is involved in a fatal collision (or any collision for that matter) and it appears that the occupants in all seats but the driver's seat are still in the car whether conscious or not. AND there is no one in the driver's seat. Is the most likely scenario that the driver got out of the car? Yes?
I'd be looking real hard at the "witnesses."
And it looks like a high-end neighborhood (to those that do not live on an Island or Mountain) so I am guessing that enough cameras face the street to watch for porch pirates... (And all the petty perverse things one can employ a surveillance camera to do when you got enough money to buy as many as you want and point them at your neighbor's.)
Show the video to the Driver...er Witnesses.