Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mike Smith]

Rob Maurer is in the 40k boat. He points out that for one of the other automakers the export number is larger than the domestic number, which would be impossible if it was included.

 

[Todd Burch]

My post for the day:

1. Closing the browser in times like this—when you know the market is dumber than dumb—is helpful for maintaining sanity.

2. Elon’s approach has been “forget about PR. The media’s gonna pull their crap. Ignore it and execute. I was in this camp too until recently, when it became clear that executing clearly was not enough.

I now think Tesla could use a single PR person to rip a new hole in the media whenever needed. Rip into them. Show them how stupid they are. Embarass them with facts. Perhaps the embarassment will force them to move on. <s>Has anyone else thought of that before?</s>

 

[InDaClub]

Ever since Reuters partnered with the Russian state information agency TASS it has been a sad sight to behold as it parrots Russian state propaganda dressed as news, and that includes anti-EV "news". A thread on twitter gives some background on this.

My solution...

 

[jerry33]

I now think Tesla could use a single PR person to rip a new hole in the media whenever needed. Rip into them. Show them how stupid they are. Embarass them with facts. Perhaps the embarassment will force them to move on. <s>Has anyone else thought of that before?</s>

People who don't want to hear, aren't going to hear anyway, and whatever is said will be spun as desperation tactics. The only thing Tesla can do is to keep executing. It's painful right now for investors, but it was more painful when it was $180. All they are doing is winding the spring.

 

[mongo]

Aware of that. They are trying to do what Tesla did. Thats understood. Thing is when Tesla did it the other manufacturers didnt take Tesla seriously. In fact they really didnt take electric vehicles seriously. So Tesla just kept executing, sometimes with flaws, but the competition never really developed. Lucid will not have that opportunity. Not rooting against Lucid, but also dont think it will make a dent in Tesla sales and really be a small player in the EV market 5+ years from now.

One difference: Tesla's master plan did not include "build the brand synonymous with luxury" to induce sales of high end cars, before making more affordable cars (less synonymous?).
Worth a re-read:
The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me)

 

[henchman24]

Rob Maurer is in the 40k boat. He points out that for one of the other automakers the export number is larger than the domestic number, which would be impossible if it was included.

This SAIC info is the most convincing piece of info on it being split. The next few days will be interesting to watch to see if the corrections happen and how much they end up being.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Rob Maurer is in the 40k boat. He points out that for one of the other automakers the export number is larger than the domestic number, which would be impossible if it was included.

So Rob being even smarter than those of us that already found a bunch of reasons, he noticed that in the report the numbers for SAIC vehicles corresponding to the Tesla numbers shows that in the case of SAIC the exported cars were in addition to China sales. Their numbers are actually in the same sentences as the Tesla numbers.

So if Tesla numbers are to be read as 25845 - 14174 = 11671 sold in China.
Then SAIC numbers are 1304 - 2378 = -1074 yes that's negative 1074

SAIC obviously didn't sell a negative number of cars in China. Clearly their numbers should be ADDED, no subtracted.

What is then the likelyhood of Teslas numbers FROM THE SAME SENTENCES are any different?

 

[Nolimits]

Massive lines for gas today in my town. Few stations were closed. I think people are panic buying. Glad to be electric. Get w the times people!

 

[Tyler34]

Hey fellas, I have a piece of property under contract, and want to sell as few of shares as possible, so if you all could make the stock go green the next couple weeks it would be much appreciated. Ill be checking back tomorrow and the next day and the next to see how well you have progressed on this project you have committed to just by reading this. Thanks in advance for your efforts.

 

[ABCTG]

Wow. That’s disturbing. They are a regular on my newsfeed and I’ve posted Reuters links here often. I’m depressed.

Also disturbing that this shows up in my TDAmeritrade account,

 

[Darkfox021]

Massive lines for gas today in my town. Few stations were closed. I think people are panic buying. Glad to be electric. Get w the times people!

No lines, but only premium fuel available in mine in CT (suggested to the wife she top off the Pilot and fill up the 5 gallon gas tank for my lawn tractor, and sure enough, I'm there after work). Ordered a Model Y today because our Model 3 isn't suitable for our planned trip in August (2 adults, 2 kids, 2 dogs, plus luggage and kennels).

 

[WolfHero]

Dave Lee posted video today on how he can keep HODL

 

[kbM3]

I would expect that they have bought enough parts to make 600 cars and they anticipate they can deliver that many. But yeah, that is an engineers response and not a CEO.

I take issue with that characterization. 577 is not a GOOD engineer’s response. Any halfway decent engineer understands uncertainty, and the importance of using the correct number of significant digits to communicate that uncertainty.

A good engineer would probably say something like 500 to 600 cars.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Today's daily FINRA report is out, which reports on shortselling activity by FINRA members (to comply with SEC Regulation SHO). Let's dig in and do some analysis.

Note that these numbers represent activity only by FINRA-reporting members, and specifically DO NOT include the largest funds (like Pension and Index Funds), or large Hedge Funds who also may have Options Market Maker status. FINRA largely reports the daily activity of Retail Brokers:

In general, the way to interpret this chart is by comparing the daily value to the historical data for that measurement (ie: avg + spread). This is most easily understood when expressed as a Percentile score (think back to the 'normal distribution' in your Stats class).

I've conveniently displayed the percentile score for the latest date in each field (see the row labeled: "Last %tile" in the chart above (grey backgrnd, first row of the stats summary table at bottom). Lol, I should highlight this row since it's v. important.

So the interesting comparisons are in the bottom row of PINK labeled columns:

1. First pink column is FINRA/NASDAQ
   • this is the proportion of all the day's selling done by just FINRA members
   • today's value comes in at the 46th Percentile vs. avg (always the 50th %tile)
   • these are realworld data, based on FINRA daily data back to 2019-01-07
   • Inference: HIGH proportion of selling today from non-FINRA entities
2. Second pink column is SHORT/FINRA
   • this is the proportion of just FINRA trades that were marked as short
   • you could think of this as a measure of the proportion of retail shorting
   • today's value is the 43rd Percentile, which is very low (50th %tile is avg)
   • with Percentiles, 5 points is 1 std deviation, so 43rd %tile is ~1.4 S.D < avg
   • historic data shows today SHORT/FINRA was the lowest since 2020-12-16
   • Inference: extremely low levels of short-selling by Retail today (lowest since before the additjon of TSLA to the S&P 500 Index)
3. Third/Forth pink columns are NAKED SHORT% and Percentile Naked Sht:
   • it's important to really GROK the difference between percent and percentile
   • Percent is just the raw proportion on a single data point
   • Percentile is where that proportion ranks as a score in a normal distribution
     • remember, the mean (avg) in a Percentile ranking is always 50th %tile
     • 1 standard deviation is a 5 Percentile point difference from avg
   • Inference: at a 49th Percentile score, today's Naked Shorting by retail brokers was absolutely typical; nothing to see here at all (hah!)
   • Note further that is almost always the case that the Naked Short Percentile will be very close to the 50th %tile UNLESS the Uptick Rule is in effect.

TL;dr Overall, what does today's FINRA short selling report tell us?

• Higher than avg proportion of trading today by large funds (non-FINRA)
• Very noticibly lower short selling by Retail traders
• No issues with naked shorting by Retail Brokers

Now, here's the part you won't like: we, the Public, and Retail investors, have ABSOLUTELY ZERO visibility into the short trading activities on OVER HALF (53.7%) of all TSLA trading done on NASDAQ today. This is where counterfeit shares can be created in the shadows. Those twice-per-month Short Interest reports only provide the deadline by when large hedge funds and abusive naked short sellers must hide their tracks. It does not prevent, deter, nor even DETECT such financial crime when the cow left the barn 2 weeks ago. Everyone has moved on, the damage is done.

This is an egregious situation, and is routinely IGNORED by the Gov't Agency charged with ensuring a fairing and orderly Market. Pass some disclosure rules for the BOTTOM HALF of the iceburg. Where is the SEC?

Word.

 

[dano-oly]

I take issue with that characterization. 577 is not a GOOD engineer’s response. Any halfway decent engineer understands uncertainty, and the importance of using the correct number of significant digits to communicate that uncertainty.

A good engineer would probably say something like 500 to 600 cars.

I take issue with that characterization. 577 is not a GOOD engineer’s response. Any halfway decent engineer understands uncertainty, and the importance of using the correct number of significant digits to communicate that uncertainty.

A good engineer would probably say something like 500 to 600 cars.

Agree, with the caveat that perhaps a VERY GOOD engineer could say 577. Not that that's likely to be the case here....

 

[22522]

Dave Lee posted video today on how he can keep HODL

My thoughts on this are even simpler.

One should never root for anyone to fail. Or pray for anyone to fail. Or be motivated for anyone to fail.

If you sell all your stock and hope that Tesla trips up so you can buy low, what is that? Are you wishing for a trip?

Besides counting money in December to know it is real, it makes sense to invest in people who are doing what you want done.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Pretty strong volume today. Must be nice to be able to cover your short positions so easily.

What now? Wiggle back up to max pain for Friday while covering even more?

Someone should write a book on this nonsense. Bethany McLean would be perfect, but I think she's still pissed at the fanboi crowd. Fair enough.

 

[MP3Mike]

Short interest update: Tesla, Inc. Common Stock (TSLA) Short Interest

Short interest dropped by almost 10 million shares between 4/15 and 4/30. (Lowest it has been in a long time.)

SETTLEMENT DATE	SHORT INTEREST	AVG. DAILY SHARE VOLUME	DAYS TO COVER
04/30/2021	41,382,433	28,138,768	1.470655
04/15/2021	51,176,090	29,945,470	1.708976
03/31/2021	46,269,602	32,738,286	1.413318
03/15/2021	44,732,793	44,095,543	1.014452
02/26/2021	44,000,524	29,153,754	1.509258
02/12/2021	47,692,184	19,512,569	2.444178

 

[JRP3]

Rob made an updated comment on his video:

@Jack Ying pointed out that there is an error in translation in the SAIC passenger vehicle wholesale sales section. The original text is 13,004, not 1,304. So unfortunately, that doesn't give us any conclusive information either. Thanks for pointing out, Jack.

 

[dww12]

So Rob being even smarter than those of us that already found a bunch of reasons, he noticed that in the report the numbers for SAIC vehicles corresponding to the Tesla numbers shows that in the case of SAIC the exported cars were in addition to China sales. Their numbers are actually in the same sentences as the Tesla numbers.

So if Tesla numbers are to be read as 25845 - 14174 = 11671 sold in China.
Then SAIC numbers are 1304 - 2378 = -1074 yes that's negative 1074

SAIC obviously didn't sell a negative number of cars in China. Clearly their numbers should be ADDED, no subtracted.

What is then the likelyhood of Teslas numbers FROM THE SAME SENTENCES are any different?

There is an update in the youtube comments. Apparently the SAIC top number was reported wrong, actual number was 13004, not 1304 so the descrepency is no longer.