Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
If no ethanol forcing, fuel would fall immediately. The ethanol is more expensive than petro so the refineries would jump at the chance to stop buying ethanol and prices would fall. This would dump a huge amount of corn back into the market. Many growers would fail or switch to other commodities. Grain prices worldwide would likely take a bit of a hit as this giant bit of commodity corn hits the world market. Grain fed beef would become cheaper. The ag version of Fannie Mae would likely need propping up because they backed many of the ethanol production loans, dozens of plants would close.
Box of corn chex would fall.

I would recommend a class in economics. Then a study of farming in the USA.
Two econ classes at University of Texas Austin - The point that you missed is that with out growing corn subsidies there would be 50-70% less corn even planted This would impact mainly the corn used to feed animals. Not sure what "ethanol forcing" is.
2015 - "Most of the corn was used for animal feed (38.4%), followed by fuel ethanol (28.9%), export (15.3%), food, seed, industrial (9.8%) and DDGS (7.6%)."
Ethanol has to be legally produced. There would not be any corn surplus in my Keynesian economics model. No I did not get a an AG degree from Texas A&M so you got me there.
 
There would be significant ITAR issues with a purchase of SpaceX by Tesla, due to their significant amounts of foreign ownership (ie: Chinese companies and indivduals own over 10% of TSLA).


Highly unlikely that Tesla would be allowed to purchase SpaceX.

You are probably right… but they did just hire an SEC lawyer who would be good at navigating this minefield.
 
They could spin off Starlink and sell it to Tesla.
Makes perfect sense:

- Starlink is all about computing tech - Tesla is a hotbed for computing, (Watson Research/ Bell Labs/ SRI) plus the implementation and manufacturing prowess to commercialize/ monetize the R&D.

- the launch/ rocket aspect of Starlink can be subcontracted to SpaceX, good way for Tesla to use its excess cash, and lets SpaceX concentrate on its principal mission - space exploration/ colonization

- avoids the ITAR (US citizenship, vetting issues for employees of SpaceX), and helps fund SpaceX which is in earlier stages of being profitable

- advances Tesla's mission - reducing inefficiencies (aka carbon consumption of all sorts) now possible with fast communications. Aspects of money can be modernized, no need for wasteful financial intermediaries shuffling slowly entries in batch Cobol mainframes (people employed to verify/ handhold accounts and paper shuffling, legal and not-so-legal enforcement agencies that wouldn't be needed with automated verification/ clearing.. )


----------
On that latter point, some clarification for folks not familiar with some aspects of money and finance (I'm a noobie really too, so feel free to correct)
I'm not implying Tesla would get involved directly in the money business, but certainly some aspects can benefit from the ubiquitous presence of the internet via Starlink covering the earth and space, with Tesla's million(s) of cars and SC's covering the globe.

- as Elon mentioned, money is just an entry in some database (private banks and ultimately the Federal Reserve computers)

- payments between banks take 3 days to clear, even between branches of the same bank at times. Why, well because it is inefficient, or maybe to pay its inefficient systems, and bankers need to be fed/s *

- payments between countries is done via the US dominated SWIFT system. It really is not as secure/ modern as one would think it is, a few years ago the Central Bank of Bangladesh was the victim of counterfeiters who'd hacked the SWIFT system and stolen hundred of millions, with other hacks always happening. For countries not part of the SWIFT system, the Chinese are quickly establishing an alternative payment system. Considering how poorly our country is run, who knows what the future international system will be.

Starlink incidentally provides a borderless communications system - how it meshes with various governments prerogatives is an interesting issue, and the main reason different countries want their own LEO satellites, for now best launched by .. SpaceX. Russia's scandalous creation of dangerous debris in space (by recently shooting one of their own satellites) threatening all orbiting vehicles may be a phyrric warning ..

(*) For most money exchanges this can be done instantly at minimal costs. China essentially does it now with their cellphones and electronic yuan. Here in the US you can do it with Square's Cash app/ Visa card. Highly recommended BTW to send money instantly between friends and family for sure, but also for all normal credit card purchases. It may be Jack Dorsey's next challenge (why he felt he could/ wanted to leave Twitter).
 
Last edited:
As far as I'm aware, Waymo still has to do rounds of funding to continue operations. It cannot get funded from Google and it's ad revenue.
Waymo is funded by Alphabet and a wholly-owned subsidiary of such.

Alphabet can raise funding specifically for waymo with a separate term without ever involving Alphabet shares in the mix if it chooses to do so. But ultimately, the funding is coming from Alphabet or however it decides to arrange for Waymo.

Putting this into SpaceX and Tesla perspective, tsla will pay whatever for SpaceX and it becomes a wholly-owned subsidiary of Tesla. And in certain sense, this is like a SPAC or reverse IPO for SpaceX should it go this way. SpaceX becomes a portion of the new entity (X.com?), TSLA is still the ticker and Tesla Motor/Energy is the 800lbs gorilla in the new entity as it's 1.1T by its own.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: StarFoxisDown!
Waymo is funded by Alphabet and a wholly-owned subsidiary of such.

Alphabet can raise funding specifically for waymo with a separate term without ever involving Alphabet shares in the mix if it chooses to do so. But ultimately, the funding is coming from Alphabet or however it decides to arrange for Waymo.

Putting this into SpaceX and Tesla perspective, tsla will pay whatever for SpaceX and it becomes a wholly-owned subsidiary of Tesla. And in certain sense, this is like a SPAC or reverse IPO for SpaceX should it go this way. SpaceX becomes a portion of the new entity (X.com?), TSLA is still the ticker and Tesla Motor/Energy is the 800lbs gorilla in the new entity as it's 1.1T by its own.
Take it with a grain of salt, but heard from someone who is working at waymo that it's going to be spun off from Google as a separate public company.
 
@DaveT, why he thinks Q4 will be a blowout quarter.
I think Tesla will be recognizing a portion of the FSD Revenues. the beta is probably at 20k to 50k deployments even if it went to just the 98s. And recognizing an average of 4k would be in the vicinity of 100 million dollars, and as high as 250 million.

This is going up explode next year and I didn't see @DaveT alluding to this.

This would be a good qtr to sandbag the numbers with this budding stream that's gonna be a gusher soon.
 
Last edited:
There would be significant ITAR issues with a purchase of SpaceX by Tesla, due to their significant amounts of foreign ownership (ie: Chinese companies and indivduals own over 10% of TSLA).


Highly unlikely that Tesla would be allowed to purchase SpaceX.
Besides, we don't want to buy a company that might soon be bankrupt


Unfortunately, the Raptor production crisis is much worse than it had seemed a few weeks ago. As we have dug into the issues following the exiting of prior senior management, they have unfortunately turned out to be far more severe than was reported. There is no way to sugarcoat this.

I was going to take this weekend off, as my first weekend off in a long time, but instead, I will be on the Raptor line all night and through the weekend
What it comes down to, is that we face a genuine risk of bankruptcy if we can’t achieve a Starship flight rate of at least once every two weeks next year.
Thanks,
Elon
 
I think Tesla will be recognizing a portion of the FSD Revenues. the beta is probably at 20k to 50k deployments even if it went to just the 98s. And recognizing an average of 4k would be in the vicinity of 100 million dollars, and as high as 250 million.
I'm pretty sure that Zack said that they wouldn't recognize any portion of FSD until that portion went to general release. So no recognition for early access FSD testers.

On your second question about the criteria to release deferred revenue, the way that this works is we have made certain commitments as to what this product can offer at the time that a customer has purchased that. And so what we have to assess is, have we met those commitments? And is the software widely available to folks that we've made those commitments to within a certain geography? And, you know, given that FSD is still currently in the beta phase, it's invitation-only and it's limited, we have not deemed that to be appropriate for recognition of deferred revenue. And we'll continue to evolve this.

So once it is widely available in the US they will start to recognize more revenue.
 
OK I've actually watched most of this now.

5 tanks at 14kg is 2350kwh of energy, for 500 miles.

2 Fuel cells at 100kw each = 200kw sustained power

Looks to me like they have
  • Bought in the chassis
  • Bought in the fuel cells from Toyota (they do 2 versions of crate fuel cells, 80kw each
  • bought in the tanks - from Mahytech possibly
  • Bolted this together as an alpha vehicle
I think this has been frantic work over the last 6-12 months (post IPO/Milton) and they have an alpha stage 'working' vehicle. They are miles off having a finished tested product and it'll take a lot of work and money to get there.
If that class 8 truck only has 200kw sustained power, it is going to be a slow dog. Tesla will win here with 5x that level of sustained power. Also surprised to hear in that video, filling takes an hour? What? I thought the advantage of hydrogen was fast filling.