Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

I'm still on beta 10.5, but I've tested in multiple cities and states. From my experience, it's more likely to "annoy" the public than endanger anyone, because of how cautious it is. 10.5 is hyperaware of vulnerable road users.

I've upgraded to 10.6 about a week ago now. Are we spaced that far apart I wonder? Maybe that's part of your last question.

I personally don't include robotaxis in my valuation of Tesla, but from an investment perspective, I do still think about it a lot. I wonder just how much legal action by the govt can impede progress of FSD.

City Mayors can decide what's on their streets AFAIK, so can other Countries. I don't think that's what's delaying progress there.

I'd be surprised to learn they're able to keep up with the Terabytes of data

Agree, lots of data. They probably love that I have Gigablast internet here. I'm no AI guru, but maybe they keep up with the volume by rolling out to different States sequentially, and have another group looking at the more general stuff. Just a guess. Likely lots of automation filtering out the noise before a human must label something.

So far for me in Az, it will do a left turn on a yellow arrow now (it just sat there before). I think those are the easy fixes though and have pretty consistent rules and lots of examples. However, there are tar lines down a road lane nearby that also has a centerlane. Depending upon the reflection (time of day), it thinks these are lines and shows them on screen while moving over abruptly. Although those tar lines are black, the sun is likely reflecting some of the frequency of light that the system is tracking. This doesn't seem like a safety issue, only an embarrassment. So again, I try to do stuff when others aren't around until it does well.

For other cars around me, this would be a nuisance. The approach to stop signs (not lights though) is slow and still too far back on some roads only, but takes forever. If there's someone behind me, I just hit the gas as I'm sure Tesla is aware of this behavior. I'm becoming acutely aware of vehicles around me when I'm on FSD. I wonder if they're still handing them out. I was a 99 score a few weeks back to get in. Any 98's get it yet? We still scoring?

 

[SOULPEDL]

only the 9, (i’m on my ipad don’t have spreadsheet there)
that is an amazingly sneaky idea also, a $8 billion endowment to start “TITS UP”. (rofl)
plus the charitable tax deductions….

I'm completely on board with this, by the way. A real trade school, then clone it as needed globally, possibly affect our education system by example. $$$Universities$$$ beware.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I've upgraded to 10.6 about a week ago now. Are we spaced that far apart I wonder? Maybe that's part of your last question.

City Mayors can decide what's on their streets AFAIK, so can other Countries. I don't think that's what's delaying progress there.

Agree, lots of data. They probably love that I have Gigablast internet here. I'm no AI guru, but maybe they keep up with the volume by rolling out to different States sequentially, and have another group looking at the more general stuff. Just a guess. Likely lots of automation filtering out the noise before a human must label something.

So far for me in Az, it will do a left turn on a yellow arrow now (it just sat there before). I think those are the easy fixes though and have pretty consistent rules and lots of examples. However, there are tar lines down a road lane nearby that also has a centerlane. Depending upon the reflection (time of day), it thinks these are lines and shows them on screen while moving over abruptly. Although those tar lines are black, the sun is likely reflecting some of the frequency of light that the system is tracking. This doesn't seem like a safety issue, only an embarrassment. So again, I try to do stuff when others aren't around until it does well.

For other cars around me, this would be a nuisance. The approach to stop signs (not lights though) is slow and still too far back on some roads only, but takes forever. If there's someone behind me, I just hit the gas as I'm sure Tesla is aware of this behavior. I'm becoming acutely aware of vehicles around me when I'm on FSD. I wonder if they're still handing them out. I was a 99 score a few weeks back to get in. Any 98's get it yet? We still scoring?

I just got notice for another FSD update. (Timing of events today must be statistically like 1/1M).
It's 2021.36.8.10 - maybe they like my data connection?

 

[Xd85]

I'm completely on board with this, by the way. A real trade school, then clone it as needed globally, possibly affect our education system by example. $$$Universities$$$ beware.

The school that makes the school

 

[SOULPEDL]

What am I like the first or second one to get this? Are the other version (39/40) the main build?
(Probably also OT, but at least it's the weekend. I did manage to also do my whole yard and laundry - it's all good.)

 

[sparkz]

At this point I think the 25k model means a trim they CAN sell at 25k for a profit, but they don’t HAVE TO. They might already be able to it with Model 3 if they are willing to trim some features and make it slightly worse.

In more than one occasions Elon had said there is no model 2 then went on to rant about model 3.

Again, even when they are capable of making such a trim, they don’t have to, and with the slow pace the rest of industry is ramping up to meet the explosive demand, they may never need to do it, especially if FSD would be solved in a few years.

I think there are several sides to the 25k car idea. Most are assuming a smaller/cheaper car, but I think that is quite likely two separate things.

1. A model 3 single motor with single castings (like the Y), SR trim, LFP battery could end up being very cheap for them to produce as a low cost car.

2. A smaller hatchback/performance hot-hatch would be a good seller outside North America. This could also span a lower start price than the current model 3 up to a performance trim at a respectable price.

3. The China R&D facility could do something that is the basis for the above, or even something different that shares parts (like the 3/Y).

I guess what I'm trying to say is that smaller doesn't equal cheaper. If you want a Tesla for a base price, you'll live with what is the entry level. If you have money and want a hot-hatch, you might not have room for a model S plaid.

 

[SOULPEDL]

OT BREAKKING news: Sawyer’s jute bag clothing startup twinbirch.com postponed to 1H 2022!

Soy boi time is way worse than Elon time

Maybe he got busy with something else
I get the feeling Sawyer's been privately hired by Tesla for controlling the release of info, and pre-approved by the board. The Wolf Blitzer of Tesla.

 

[lafrisbee]

Tesla using cameras placed underneath the car using Tesla vision to recreate a 3d model of the terrain underneath would also be rad for off roading.

a couple of lasers would do the job easier, and better.

 

[SOULPEDL]

1. A model 3 single motor with single castings (like the Y), SR trim, LFP battery could end up being very cheap for them to produce as a low cost car.

Might that be the smaller motor announce yesterday?

 

[SOULPEDL]

a couple of lasers would do the job easier, and better.

Nope, cameras only. Off-Road Vision package for another $10K? Could have military value use as well over difficult terrain.

 

[dl003]

I think I have finally figured out why Elon is selling shares on the open market instead of selling them in blocks to institutional buyers: he is simply done with playing WS’s games. He wants to sell shares like everybody else and give retails a chance to buy the dip. This is the same reason the $5b ATM offering was sold on the open market. This is further cemented by the move into BTC. Here we are stressing over the weekly score but all he cares about is how the game is played. Sooner or later this sale is gonna be over and the big bois who think they so smart sidestepping the dip will have to pay the piper.

 

[lascavarian]

I think I have finally figured out why Elon is selling shares on the open market instead of selling them in blocks to institutional buyers: he is simply done with playing WS’s games. He wants to sell shares like everybody else and give retails a chance to buy the dip. This is the same reason the $5b ATM offering was sold on the open market. This is further cemented by the move into BTC. Here we are stressing over the weekly score but all he cares about is how the game is played. Sooner or later this sale is gonna be over and the big bois who think they so smart sidestepping the dip will have to pay the piper.

My view is that Elon is asking a lot of his employees. They see the same media reports about billionaires dodging taxes. He will sell his shares just like his employees sell their shares.

He will not do a tax dodge. He has had the discussion in public in his own words stating what his tax rate works out 50+%. This is about playing by the rules, building the bond with his employees and explaining to the world who he is.

Elon is generating good faith and respect through his actions and example.

 

[MC3OZ]

I guess what I'm trying to say is that smaller doesn't equal cheaper. If you want a Tesla for a base price, you'll live with what is the entry level. If you have money and want a hot-hatch, you might not have room for a model S plaid.

While that is true, smaller gives the potential for some cost savings.

Thinner means less frontal area, less drag, meaning a smaller battery pack is possible,

Shorter combined with thinner means less raw materials, less weight, and the potential for a smaller battery pack.

Smaller means wiring harness runs are shorter, with less copper and again less weight.

Smaller and lighter means smaller motors, combine this with smaller wheels, again less weight.

To be cheap it would need an LFP battery, and perhaps some other design compromises, and material choices.

It is certainly possible to make a great performing small car, and that isn't necessarily going to be cheap, II agree that small car can be expensive, especially if stellar performance and long range are the design objectives.

A small car designed to fit a budget might not have stellar performance and long range, it is likely that there are compromises in these areas.

My attitude to the $25K car is simple - whatever it takes - price is important here, more important than any other consideration, except perhaps for a floor in terms of quality, performance and range that Tesla will not go below.

To build a $25K car, it has to be designed for that price point, the mission has to be pursued, with vigour and no stone left unturned, failure isn't an option.
The mission dictates that in this case Tesla hits the price point, and still makes a reasonable margin on each car.

it is important not to rush it, do it once, and do it right.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Y'all seen this yet? Oh boy, here hold this.

From Google, "Lucius Cornelius Sulla Felix (/ˈsʌlə/; 138–78 BC), commonly known as Sulla, was a Roman general and statesman. He won the first large-scale civil war in Roman history, and became the first man of the republic to seize power through force."

https://twitter.com/x/status/1469762144786919427

 

[mrmage]

I thought the lasers would just be for clearing bug splatter and such. Seems like the energy requirements to vaporize a heavy rainfall would be quite high. Maybe you're kidding?

Indeed. With heavy rain (6 mm/hour) falling on 1M x 2M windshields , evaporating 12 liters would require over 8 KWH. Evaporating rain in real-time would be far less efficient, draining the batteries in under an hour if not minutes. The bright side is the savings from not needing heaters, as the windshield radiates 100C+.

The car and its occupants would literally be smoking hot.

 

[mrmage]

Semi on topic - I increased my buying power for options and borrowing cash in my margin account by nearly 150% by converting from normal margin to portfolio margin. Even if someone does not use more margin, the advantage is margin calls should be far less likely. I didn't even realize there was such a thing until recently.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Woke up today thinking about regen. Several recent tidbits and rumours led to this.

Semi production has started.
Rumoured to have approx 1000km range (600 mile plus).
Cybertruck on test track.
Elon tweet about legacy having no idea.

All hints to 4680 cells coming on line soon.

It’s nagged for some time that a Tesla is 90% efficient at delivering energy from battery to kinetic and potential, but only 60% efficient at recovering it.

Wondering if 4680 cells hold the key to recovering energy as efficiently as it’s delivered. Battery day suggested these cells would deliver 16% more range (a huge additional competitive advantage), without saying why. Obviously it’s not good business to blab about new function in the pipeline… the Osborne lesson.

Thoughts/corrections welcomed, thanks.

 

[colettimj]

What am I like the first or second one to get this? Are the other version (39/40) the main build?
(Probably also OT, but at least it's the weekend. I did manage to also do my whole yard and laundry - it's all good.)

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At the moment, only existing 10.6 FSD cars are getting updated to 10.6.1 (36.8.10).

 

[UnknownSoldier]

If I were a guessing man, I would say that if you didn't get the halted 10.6 release, you aren't getting 10.6.1. I'm still on 10.5 and I fully expect I will be skipped to 10.7.

 

[SOULPEDL]

If I were a guessing man, I would say that if you didn't get the halted 10.6 release, you aren't getting 10.6.1. I'm still on 10.5 and I fully expect I will be skipped to 10.7.

Halted 10.6?