jhm
Well-Known Member
I hear that some other automakers are really profitable when you exclude reg credits.
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As someone who works with pricing products on a daily basis - me too! Nothing better than Tesla's position either when it comes to margin. Being hard capped on production so they have all the pricing power in the world, and now also with inflation as the perfect excuse for raising the prices as much as they want despite minor cost increases in comparison. 2023 is going to be a crazy year for them unless major unforseen challenges arises.@The Accountant, thank you very much for updating the table. I love auto gross margin excluding reg credits.
A tumultuous time for sure, and a great space to sit and wait as springs uncoil and profits need to be accounted for.Macros co-operating currently based on futures.....gonna be a wild one tomorrow for $TSLA....glad i have my degenerate TMC fam to cheer $TSLA on tomorrow!
Contra: Disruptions accelerate change. Tesla might have done incrementally better volumes wise, but the world got to see Tesla's incredible agility, pricing power, and the perils of humanity being overly dependent on fossil fuels. That just delayed a couple of quarters, and I like the trade off of fewer ICE vehicles produced in the interim.I'm just stunned wondering how amazing things would be with Tesla's talent and capabilities more properly focused allowing greater efficiency....if the world wasn't on fire!
Not getting my hopes too high but there's a possibility for a gross margin increase.
On Fast Money Gene Munster battled the negativity and said TSLA is a $2,500 stock in five years.
For margins to increase, is the assumption that average selling price was greater than any increases in parts/material costs? If so, is this a good assumption?
I think the requirement is >=30% each of the last four quarters, not average. From Q3 2012's 10-Q:What Gross Margin (GM) does Tesla need to print in 2022 Q2 to achieve an average GM of 30% over the past 4 quarters? I believe that is the trigger which releases the final tranche of Elon's 2012 CEO Compensation plan (which expires in Aug 2022 if not achieved). Thus, I expect this is the motivation and the actual goal, not some arbitrary level like 31% GM in Q2.
Gross margin of 30% or more for four consecutive quarters;
Using this criteria, they are at three consecutive, in which case >=30% in Q2 would trigger it, along with an expense for the award. If so, Elon's exercise of it before expiration next month (Aug 12th ish) will also trigger more payroll tax.As of December 31, 2021, the performance milestone of gross margin of 30% or more for four consecutive quarters was considered not probable of achievement for which the unrecognized stock-based compensation is immaterial. For the years ended December 31, 2021, 2020 and 2019, we did not record any stock-based compensation expense related to the 2012 CEO Performance Award.
That's what many people are assuming will happen. I'm not convinced, I think the ASP slowly going higher will only be maintaining margins, not increasing them, due to inflationary pressures. That coupled with the Shanghai shutdown and I'm thinking we'll see margins go down a bit tonight in the Q2 ER, not up.
Going to be on a plane to Hawaii (vacation sorely needed) when results come out... my wife is insisting that we get the inflight WIFI so we can track earning results
Going to be on a plane to Hawaii (vacation sorely needed) when results come out... my wife is insisting that we get the inflight WIFI so we can track earning results
Dont do it. Cut yourself off. You need it.Going to be on a plane to Hawaii (vacation sorely needed) when results come out... my wife is insisting that we get the inflight WIFI so we can track earning results
Going to be on a plane to Hawaii (vacation sorely needed) when results come out... my wife is insisting that we get the inflight WIFI so we can track earning results
That's the best part of being all-in. I don't care what happens with the market: I just ride it and let day traders fret about each and every wave.Everyone that has paid attention to Tesla knows that Q2 has been tough. And that Tesla's legion of enemies are chomping at the bit to spin the results as the end of the world. Tesla being as popular as it is.... a lot of people are paying attention.
My two cents: everyone is waiting for a kitchen sink Q2 earnings report with the intention of buying heavily on the MM manufactured dip afterwards (this may or may not include me ).
But when everyone is waiting for something.... expectations rarely work out as expected.
What Gross Margin (GM) does Tesla need to print in 2022 Q2 to achieve an average GM of 30% over the past 4 quarters? I believe that is the trigger which releases the final tranche of Elon's 2012 CEO Compensation plan (which expires in Aug 2022 if not achieved). Thus, I expect this is the motivation and the actual goal, not some arbitrary level like 31% GM in Q2.
Trying to make sure I understand how the BTC and the Severance is being figured into the estimates.Final update - now with Rob Maurer's numbers:
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